Somehow, some way, the league-worst Colorado Rockies have a shot at taking three of four games against the Los Angeles Dodgers this week at Coors Field.
The pregame narrative: Shohei Ohtani will miss just his third game of the season for L.A. on Thursday afternoon, but the reigning champion Dodgers are still hefty favourites. That has a lot to do with the presence of Clayton Kershaw, who’s been on a roll this month.
Check out my Dodgers vs. Rockies predictions for Aug. 21, featuring SGP legs on Kershaw and Brenton Doyle.
Dodgers vs. Rockies predictions
Parlay: Dodgers -0.5 F5 | Kershaw over 3.5 Ks | Doyle over 0.5 hits (+335)
Dodgers -0.5 – first five innings (-150): Kershaw is well past his prime, but he isn’t limping to the finish line of his storied career.
The 37-year-old has a 3.01 ERA and a 3.88 FIP over 15 starts, and he’s been at his best in August:
- 18.0 innings
- 2 runs
- .215 opponent BA
- 3-0 record
Kershaw has also dominated the Rockies in recent years, allowing just two runs over 17.0 innings vs. Colorado dating back to 2023 (and two of those three starts came at Coors Field, including a win there in June).
Instead of backing the Dodgers to win the game at -245, this F5 price is where I think the value lies.
Especially when you consider the edge Kershaw gives L.A. compared to Colorado starter Chase Dollander. The 23-year-old has a 6.43 ERA in 17 outings, and the Rockies are 5-12 in those games.
On a -0.5 F5 run line, the Dodgers are 7-3-1 in Kershaw’s past 11 starts.
MLB SGP legs
Kershaw over 3.5 strikeouts (-107): Let’s keep the Kershaw discourse rolling, shall we?
For as strong as his 2025 numbers have been, he’s no longer a high-strikeout guy. But this is an attainable number based on the matchup.
- Kershaw struck out five Rockies hitters over 6.0 innings back on June 26 (in Colorado).
- The Rockies have the second-highest K rate this season (25.3%).
Kershaw’s best putaway pitchers are his signature curveball and his splitter. According to Baseball Savant, the Rockies have the second-highest whiff rate against those offerings from LHPs this year.
Doyle over 0.5 hits (-278): In a game with a 12-run projected total, somebody on the Rockies should be able to drum up some offence. And one worthwhile candidate is Doyle.
- The outfielder is 18-for-51 (.353) with a 173 wRC+ in his past 15 games.
- He has 1+ hits in 12 of 14 starts in that span.
Doyle homered off Kershaw in June and is 2-for-6 in this matchup overall. Also, he’s batting .327 against LHPs on the season.
Dodgers vs. Rockies predictions made at 9:40 a.m. ET on 08/21/2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.