The Los Angeles Dodgers punished the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field last night, and I’m expecting plenty of runs again on Wednesday.
The pregame narrative: Shohei Ohtani gets the start but, with astronomical prices on the superstar, I’m electing for plays on his teammates instead as the heavily favoured Dodgers go for their fifth win in six games.
Check out my Dodgers vs. Rockies predictions, featuring SGP legs on Freddie Freeman and Tesocar Hernandez.
Dodgers vs. Rockies predictions
Parlay: Over 11.5 runs | Freeman over 1.5 total bases | Hernandez over 1.5 total bases (+330)
Over 11.5 runs (-165): It’s hard to find value in a Coors Field game featuring the Dodgers. That’s especially true in a pitching mismatch between Ohtani and Tanner Gordon (7.98 ERA).
Need proof? Several players’ total bases lines have been adjusted to 2.5, Dodgers -1.5 comes at a -220 price, and L.A.’s team total is 7.5.
Despite Coors, Ohtani has a great matchup. But getting him to punch out six, record four-plus bases and the Dodgers to win by two or more doesn’t even return odds of +300.
That combo was my original thought, but it’s not worth it, so I’ve turned my attention to offence.
- The Dodgers scored double-digits in an 11-4 victory last night and are averaging an MLB-best 5.19 runs per game.
- There’s little reason to think they won’t destroy Gordon. The 27-year-old has allowed seven-plus runs in three of his last four starts.
- And while Ohtani and the Dodgers’ staff get MLB’s worst offence, Colorado benefits from its home park. The Rockies are third in average and eighth in slugging at home, so I’m counting on them to contribute to this number as well.
MLB SGP legs
Freeman over 2.5 total bases (+108): I generally wouldn’t love backing the over on a 2.5 line, but Freeman hammers righties and the venue can’t be ignored.
The Dodgers star has cleared this in both games at Coors this series, bringing his August slash line to .328/.392/.594.
He’s just shy of a .900 OPS vs. right-handers this season (.304/.377/.497) and has slugged over .500 against them in each of the previous five years.
Once the Dodgers inevitably chase Gordon, they’ll get to feast on the second-worst bullpen in MLB in terms of run prevention (5.36 ERA).
That group has been even worse in the second half, with an MLB-high mark of 6.82.
Hernandez over 1.5 total bases (-165): Hernandez does his best work in a platoon advantage, which he won’t enjoy tonight, but we can also get him at a 1.5 line when Freeman and Mookie Betts are 2.5 and Ohtani is 3.5.
And whether Gordon is facing a lefty or righty batter, it hasn’t mattered. In fact, right-handers have hit him even harder during his brief two-year stint in the majors.
- 2024 vs. LHB: .333/.364/.611
- 2025 vs. LHB: 293/.330/.478
- 2024 vs. RHB: .377/.407/.701
- 2025 vs. RHB: .423/.458/.603
At the best offensive environment in baseball, that helps me overlook Hernandez’s slugging mark that’s 200 points lower vs. righties.
Dodgers vs. Rockies predictions made at 12:46 p.m. ET on 08/20/2025.
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Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.