We’re off to the Big Apple for Game 3 of the NLCS.
The pregame narrative: Tonight’s prop picks centre on fading Los Angeles Dodgers starter Walker Buehler, who I expect to struggle against the top of the New York Mets’ lineup.
Check out the best Dodgers vs. Mets prop picks for Wednesday night’s game.
Dodgers vs. Mets prop picks
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Best bet: Buehler under 14.5 outs (+108)
The Dodgers gave Walker a long leash after he surrendered six second-inning runs in Game 3 of the NLDS. But I don’t expect them to make that same decision again.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto gets Game 4 on Thursday and has yet to reach 65 pitches in any playoff game. So a heavy Game 3 workload for the bullpen could really put strain on Los Angeles.
And Buehler has topped this number in six consecutive starts. But the Dodgers bullpen has been trustworthy enough this postseason that mixing and matching seems like a better play as we reach the back half of this game.
Buehler has one strikeout over his last two starts (10 innings). While both outings came against the San Diego Padres, who had MLB’s lowest K rate, it’s still concerning.
If Buehler can’t produce Ks with runners on, he’ll run the risk of a big inning. We saw that in the NLDS and frequently throughout the regular season, leading to a 5.38 ERA (5.54 FIP).
The Mets haven’t struck out at a particularly high clip in the playoffs and sport an 18.4% K rate through two NLCS games (only the Padres had a lower mark in the regular season).
New York had a top-10 walk rate in the regular season and is getting on via free passes at an even higher rate in the playoffs.
Simply put, I hate this matchup for Buehler.
Key stat: The Mets have an NL-best .328 OBP in the playoffs, averaging 5.0 runs per game.
Quick picks
Francisco Lindor over 0.5 runs (-106): Backing New York’s lineup starts at the top with the club’s all-star leadoff hitter.
Lindor has eight runs in nine playoff games, scoring in six different contests.
Since the start of September, he has crossed the plate in an incredible 17 of his last 25 games.
On a per-game level, Lindor scored at nearly the same rate as Shohei Ohtani, who led the majors with 134 runs.
Lindor has gotten on base at a .372 clip this postseason.
Mark Vientos over 1.5 total bases (+150): The 24-year-old has 25 total bases in nine playoff games, clearing this number six times.
It’s led to a .676 slugging percentage and 1.086 OPS.
Buehler got pumped by both lefty (.890 OPS) and righty (.833 OPS) hitters this season. The league-average OPS for hitters was .711.
Vientos has a lot of swing and miss in his game. But Buehler’s inability to miss bats — he posted a career-low K rate — offsets that concern.
Pete Alonso over 0.5 RBI (+185): Lindor and Vientos are followed by Brandon Nimmo and slugger Pete Alonso.
Nimmo has been a high OBP guy throughout his career and has reached base in all but one postseason game.
That trio provides a nice foundation in front of Alonso, who has remained a power threat out of the cleanup spot this October.
Alonso is slugging .586 with a .996 OPS, three homers and six RBI. The first baseman has five hits in 14 career at-bats versus Buehler, homering four times and driving in eight runs.
Picks made at 8:00 a.m. ET 10/16/2024.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.