The NLCS begins tonight in Milwaukee, where the top-seeded Brewers host the defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers.
The pregame narrative: Milwaukee has excelled at run suppression in its home park this year, yielding just 3.7 runs per game to its opponents. I think Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts are both worth fading at the plate in Game 1 on Monday.
Check out my Dodgers vs. Brewers picks for NLDS Game 1.
Dodgers vs. Brewers picks
Best bet: Ohtani under 1.5 total bases (-127)
It’s really difficult to stomach fading Ohtani, but based on how his postseason is going, it’s not as crazy as it sounds.
Ohtani homered twice in Game 1 of the wild-card round. But he has just two hits (both singles) in five games since.
One tricky component to this prop is that the Brewers haven’t announced their starting pitcher yet. It’ll either be Quinn Priester, Jose Quintana or an opener (likely a left-hander, so either Aaron Ashby or Jared Koenig).
Ohtani is 0-for-3 with a strikeout vs. Priester and 2-for-6 with three walks vs. Quintana.
My preference is to see Priester, who held the Dodgers to three hits over 6.0 shutout innings (with 10 strikeouts) just after the all-star break.
But if they like a particular lefty opener to face the left-hitting Ohtani out of the gate, I’m good with that, too. Ohtani has a .264 BA vs. LHPs in his career compared to a .290 BA vs. RHPs.
Five quiet games for Ohtani isn’t quite a slump, but he’s heading in that direction. For a guy with a 97th-percentile walk rate, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him be a bit more selective at the dish right now.
Additionally, Milwaukee’s American Family Field is a pitcher-friendly park in the alleys. The stadium allows 10% fewer triples and 13% fewer doubles than league average, per Baseball Savant’s park factors.
Key stat: In his past 10 postseason games, Ohtani is just 1-9 vs. this prop with a .502 OPS and a 33.3% K rate.
MLB best bets
Betts under 0.5 runs (-136): I’m looking to fade the Dodgers’ offence in a general sense tonight, so this pick gels nicely with how I expect the game to play out.
Milwaukee’s home park ranks third-last as a scoring environment over the past three seasons, and I’ve already noted the general lack of extra-base hits it produces.
Betts, like Ohtani, is hitless vs. Priester. He’s 0-for-3 with two strikeouts.
Batting No. 2 in the Dodgers’ star-studded lineup should lead to ample scoring opportunities, but that hasn’t borne much fruit recently.
Dating back to the regular season, Betts has gone under 0.5 runs in 13 of 17 games with a .324 on-base percentage.
Dodgers vs. Brewers picks made at 11:57 a.m. on 10/13/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.