The Arizona Diamondbacks aim to sweep the New York Yankees on the road.
The pregame narrative: It would be a huge series result for the D-Backs and I like overs for two of Arizona’s players for tonight. Check out my top prop picks on Ketel Marte and Merrill Kelly.
Check out my Diamondbacks vs. Yankees prop picks for April 3.
Diamondbacks vs. Yankees prop picks
Editor’s note: Marte is not in tonight’s lineup. This pick was made before Arizona announced its lineup.
Best bet: Marte 1+ run (-121)
Marte was quietly one of the best hitters in baseball in 2024:
- .292 batting average
- 36 home runs
- 95 RBI
That momentum has carried into the new season, where he has a matching .292 BA and has scored in five of six games.
Marte hits out of the leadoff spot for one of the top offences, leading to 94 runs in 2023 and 93 last season. That ranked top 20 in MLB.
In 14 at-bats against Yankees starter Carlos Carrasco, Marte has reached base six times and has a .333 BA.
It’s also worth noting that Carrasco is 38 years old, coming off a 5.64 ERA season, and is off to a rough start for the Yankees.
In his first appearance, he pitched two innings, giving up three earned runs out of the bullpen. The Milwaukee Brewers scored nine runs that game.
The righty will start tonight, giving the D-Backs lineup a good chance to do damage against a shaky arm.
Key stat: Marte ranked in the 97th percentile for batting run value (35) in 2024, per Baseball Savant.
Prop prediction
Kelly over 4.5 Ks (-115): Arizona’s starter missed a large chunk of last season with a shoulder injury, but he closed the year tallying five or more Ks in three of his final four starts.
Despite dealing with the issues, Kelly still had a respectable 30.5% whiff rate (70th percentile).
Now, take a look at his advanced metrics two seasons ago when he was healthy:
- 27.0% whiff rate (58th percentile)
- 25.9% K rate (69th percentile)
- 32.9% chase rate (88th percentile)
- 9.47 K/9
Everything points to Kelly being an above-average strikeout pitcher when healthy.
He went under this total in his first start, but that gives bettors another chance to jump in at good value.
Kelly has allowed 16 hits in 89 career at-bats (.180 BA) against this Yankees offence, with 24 Ks. If the righty can pitch another five-plus innings, he should get past this modest total.
Diamondbacks vs. Yankees predictions made at 11:06 a.m. ET on 04/03/2025.
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Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.