The Toronto Blue Jays have the chance to win their series with the Chicago Cubs on Thursday.
The pregame narrative: Max Scherzer looks to continue his strong string of starts for the Blue Jays. He’ll take the mound opposite Chicago’s Matthew Boyd. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been tearing the cover off the ball in the second half of the season and has another Grade-A matchup to take advantage of.
Check out my Royals vs. Blue Jays same-game parlay predictions for Aug. 14, featuring Guerrero and Davis Schneider.
Cubs vs. Blue Jays predictions
Parlay: Blue Jays ML | Guerrero over 1.5 bases | Schneider over 0.5 hits (+390)
Blue Jays ML (-109): A few things are working in favour of the Blue Jays, and it starts with the pitching matchup.
- Scherzer has been dealing over his past three starts. He has a 2.84 ERA with 21 strikeouts over 19 innings of work.
- The Cubs’ offence has a .207 career average off Scherzer with a 31.4% K rate.
Left-hander Boyd gets the start for Toronto and in a small 16-plate-appearance sample size, the Jays have six hits (.375 BA).
That includes Bo Bichette and Guerrero going a combined 3-for-4 off Boyd. It’s also worth noting that none of those 16 plate appearances ended in strikeouts.
The lefty has given up eight earned runs over the past three starts (19.0 IP), and his 3.82 xFIP is worse than his actual FIP (3.13) and much higher than his ERA (2.45).
It feels like Boyd will continue to regress after a spectacular start to the season, and I want to take advantage by backing Toronto as a pick’em.
MLB SGP legs
Guerrero over 1.5 bases (+110): I want to focus back in on Toronto’s top slugger.
Let’s start by highlighting his stats vs. left-handed pitchers:
- .306/.409/.481 slash line
- 11-of-33 hits have gone for extra bases (four home runs).
On top of that, Boyd throws a four-seam fastball or changeup over 65% of the time. Guerrero has a .300 xBA or better against both of those pitches.
He notably crushes fastballs, slugging .606 and batting north of .330 off the offering.
Finally, Guerrero has been on a heater since all-star break. In the 25 games since, the slugging first baseman has a .376 average with a 1.131 OPS. Both numbers would lead MLB over the full season.
In that span, he has 69 total bases and is 15-10 against this wager.
Schneider over 0.5 hits (-134): In recent days, Schneider has worked himself into the top of the Jays’ order when a lefty is on the mound.
And it’s worked wonders. He is batting .344 over his past nine games with just seven Ks. That’s a positive for Schneider, who has a season-long 26.4% K rate.
He has at least a hit in seven of his past nine starts and is once again in the leadoff spot with Boyd on the mound for Chicago.
That means Schneider should have as many at-bats as anyone in this game.
Boyd has a 91st percentile walk rate (5.4), per Baseball Savant, so there should be lots of action over the plate, and Schneider has been hot at the dish.
Cubs vs. Blue Jays predictions made at 11:21 a.m. ET on 08/14/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.