The Washington Commanders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers battle for a spot in the NFC divisional round on Sunday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: Winning on the road as a rookie quarterback is a tall task. That’s why I’m taking the postseason-tested, veteran-laden Bucs to win. Additionally, I’m expecting a lot of points and for Baker Mayfield to use his legs in this contest.
Check out my Commanders vs. Buccaneers same-game parlay predictions.
Commanders vs. Buccaneers same-game parlay predictions
Go to full NFL betting markets
Parlay: Buccaneers moneyline + Over 45.5 points + Mayfield over 18.5 rushing yards (+320)
Buccaneers moneyline (-159): The playoffs are nothing new for Tampa Bay.
The team has qualified for five consecutive postseasons, winning at least one game in four of its appearances — including a dominant 32-9 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles in 2024.
Jayden Daniels is making his first-ever playoff start as a rookie, and recent history suggests the odds are stacked against him. Rookie quarterbacks playing on the road are 0-5 straight up over the last five years and 1-4 against the spread.
The Commanders haven’t fared very well against playoff-calibre teams this season. They’re 1-4 with their lone victory coming against an Eagles squad that lost Jalen Hurts early in the contest due to a concussion.
Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is 4-3 against playoff teams. That includes a 37-20 win over Washington in Week 1.
Other parlay picks
Over 45.5 points (-190): Don’t expect either defence to get in the way of what should be an offensive showdown.
The Buccaneers rank fourth in points per game (29.5) while the Commanders are only one spot behind in fifth (28.5).
Both units are in peak form over their last three, with Tampa Bay averaging 33.0 points per game and Washington generating 29.7 points per contest over the same stretch.
But what should really give bettors confidence in the over is recent defensive woes.
Four members of the Bucs’ secondary are out, while three others carry a questionable tag. They boast several indicators that favour the over:
- 22.6 points against per game (16th)
- 12-5-0 to the over this season
- 6-3-0 to the over as a favourite
Washington’s defence hasn’t been elite, either:
- 23.0 points against per game (18th)
- 11-6-0 to the over this season
- 5-1-0 to the over as an underdog
These two squads combined for 57 points in Week 1.
Mayfield over 18.5 rushing yards (-115): Thirdly, I’m expecting Mayfield to tuck the ball and run a ton with Tampa Bay’s season on the line.
His recent results suggest that’s exactly what he’ll do. Mayfield has topped this line in three of his last four games with Tampa Bay fighting to win the NFC South down the stretch.
Mayfield isn’t merely cresting this mark, either. The Bucs quarterback has totalled 137 rushing yards (34.25 per game) during this stretch.
Mayfield had 68 rushing yards in last week’s win over the New Orleans Saints.
Picks made at 10:10 a.m. ET on 01/12/2025.
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.