There are three top-10 college football programs in action tonight, and I’ve got prop bets from each of their games.
The latest: The No. 3 Miami Hurricanes have leaned on a pair of running backs this season, and CharMar Brown has value to score against the No. 18 Florida State Seminoles. Elsewhere, look for Minnesota’s Drake Lindsey to have a high-volume passing day against the No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes.
Check out my favourite Week 6 college football prop picks, featuring a prediction on Texas A&M Aggies receiver Kevin Concepcion.
College football prop picks
Best bet: Brown rushing TD (+110)
The Hurricanes have a backfield timeshare, and Brown is the 1B option behind Mark Fletcher Jr.
But Brown is the primary pass-catching back, and there seems to be enough touches to go around for both players.
Here are their per-game stats through four games:
- Fletcher: 17.5 touches, 108.3 yards
- Brown: 14.3 touches, 70.3 yards
Both players have five touchdowns apiece, so it’s not like all the scoring opportunities are tilted one way or another.
The difference is that Fletcher holds -182 odds to score, while Brown’s TD price sits at plus money. To me, that screams value.
Especially since Brown is coming off his best game of the season: 133 scrimmage yards and two TDs on 22 touches vs. Florida.
Both the Hurricanes and Seminoles have potent offences, which explains the rather juicy 54.5-point projected total for tonight’s matchup.
Defensively, Florida State could be liable to get gashed in the run game. Last week, the Noles allowed 211 rushing yards and four TDs in an upset loss against then-unranked Virginia.
Key stat: Brown has been a trusted goal-line back so far for Miami. All five of his touchdowns have come inside the five-yard line.
Bet on today’s college football games
CFB prop bets
Concepcion over 68.5 receiving yards (-118): There will be plenty of attention paid to Texas A&M’s Mario Craver in tonight’s matchup as he faces his old team (Mississippi State) for the first time. But my attention is elsewhere.
Concepcion has been about as good a WR2 could be through four games:
- 20 catches, 340 yards, 3 TDs
- 70+ yards in 4 of 4
Concepcion didn’t find the end zone last time out, but he paced Aggies receivers in targets (nine), catches (seven) and yards (113).
Mississippi State’s defence ranks 69th in EPA per pass, and last week the Bulldogs allowed two Tennessee receivers to crest 100 yards.
There should be room for Craver and Concepcion both to shine at Kyle Field.
Lindsey over 173.5 passing yards (-118): Ohio State’s defence is disgusting, and that makes it difficult to bet the over on any opposing player props. But the game script works in Lindsey’s favour, and he’s been solid so far in 2025.
- Minnesota is a 23.5-point underdog at Ohio Stadium.
- Lindsey has thrown for 200+ yards in his three full games this season. He also went 8-for-9 for 139 yards in an abbreviated start vs. Northwestern State (FCS) and was pulled early in a blowout.
Ohio State has faced two Power 4 opponents so far, and their quarterbacks hovered right around this line (170 yards for Texas’ Arch Manning, 173 yards for Washington’s Demond Williams Jr.).
I don’t expect the Golden Gophers to be terribly competitive in this game, but Lindsey should have enough passing volume to hit this over.
College football prop picks made at 1:50 p.m. on 10/04/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.