The biggest college football matchup in a loaded Saturday slate features No. 6 Oregon at No. 3 Penn State, and I’ve got a prop bet from that game in my +338 Week 5 parlay.
The pregame narrative: Kaytron Allen’s senior season with the Penn State Nittany Lions is off to a great start, and I’m expecting that to continue. Elsewhere, the South Carolina Gamecocks should be counted on to beat the Kentucky Wildcats for a fourth straight year.
Check out my college football parlay predictions for Week 5, featuring an ATS pick on the Virginia Tech Hokies vs. NC State Wolfpack game.
College football predictions: Week 5 parlay
Parlay: Allen over 68.5 rushing yards | NC State -6.5 | South Carolina ML (+338)
Allen over 68.5 rushing yards (-117): For four years, Allen and Nicholas Singleton have formed a two-headed monster in Penn State’s backfield.
It can be frustrating to bet on a tailback with split duties. But there’s a long track record of Allen thriving in this role.
- Allen has rushed for 5.3 yards/carry in his four-year career.
- He’s 26-19 vs. this yardage prop line.
- From his sophomore year onward, Allen has averaged 71.3 rush yards/game.
Oregon’s defence hasn’t really been tested yet, but it tends to thrive more against the pass than against the run.
Last year, according to Game On Paper, the Ducks’ defence ranked 18th in EPA per dropback and 109th in EPA per rush. So far this year, they’re 14th vs. the pass and 54th vs. the run.
Allen has churned for 8.0 yards per attempt in 2025. There should be plenty of opportunities for both him and Singleton, as usual.
NCAAF parlay picks
NC State -6.5 (-165): Virginia Tech dusted Wofford (FCS) last week, but that doesn’t make up for the the Hokies’ brutal start against NCAA Division I opponents.
- The Hokies have already lost twice by 19+ points as home favourites.
- Overall, they’re 0-4 ATS with a -56 point differential against FBS schools.
Now they’re up against a Wolfpack team that has covered this number in three of four games on the season. That includes both matchups at home.
NC State has topped the 30-point mark in three of four games without a cupcake non-FBS program in the mix.
Behind ACC leading rusher Daylan Smothers, look for the Wolfpack to pick up a convincing win at home.
South Carolina ML (-215): I faded South Carolina last week due to the uncertainty of whether LaNorris Sellers (concussion) would play. The Gamecocks lost as sizeable road underdogs at Missouri, but Sellers was superb.
The redshirt sophomore quarterback threw for 302 yards and two TDs against a quality Mizzou defence. He’s averaging 10.0 yards per attempt this season (ninth in D-I).
Sellers was believed by many to be a Heisman frontrunner entering the season. With the Gamecocks sitting at 2-2, he has some work to do, but the playmaking ceiling is high.
South Carolina is 3-0 vs. Kentucky over the previous three seasons, including a 31-6 road win (led by Sellers) last season.
College football predictions made at 1:10 p.m. on 09/25/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.