College football Week 4 has no shortage of player prop options, and I’ve honed in on three for Saturday’s action.
The latest: The USC Trojans are now ranked after a convincing win over the Purdue Boilermakers. I’m not sold on the passing attack, however, which is why I’m looking to fade both Jayden Maiava and Ja’Kobi Lane against the Michigan State Spartans.
Check out my favourite Week 4 college football prop picks, featuring a prediction on CJ Daniels.
College football prop picks
Best bet: Maiava under 275.5 passing yards (-120)
On paper, this seems like a line Maiava shouldn’t struggle to clear. But some context is required.
The junior has topped this mark in all three outings this season and is averaging 329.7 yards per game. But the Trojans haven’t had the toughest schedule to begin the campaign.
- They started with a 73-13 victory over Missouri State.
- Then they trampled Georgia Southern 59-20.
- Their most recent blowout was a 33-17 victory over Purdue.
The 3-0 Spartans present their toughest test yet.
What Michigan State’s defence can do is make Maiava and the rest of the Trojans uncomfortable.
The Spartans rank an impressive 27th among FBS squads in havoc rate (15.1%), according to Game On Paper, which means they consistently put offences off script.
USC’s offence hasn’t met much resistance. Expect that to change and prepare for an underwhelming performance from the passing attack, specifically.
Key stat: Michigan State has only allowed one QB to top this number this season (Dylan Lonergan, 390 passing yards).
Bet on today’s college football games
CFB prop bets
Lane under 65.5 receiving yards (-118): There are a couple of reasons to fade Lane in this matchup.
He isn’t a receiver who benefits from a consistently large workload. Lane has three catches in each of his three games this year.
The receiver has relied on big plays to beat this mark. The speedy wideout has used an otherworldly 34.3 yards per reception to beat this line in each of his last two contests.
But what happens when you take the big play away from USC?
You get an output that looks closer to his Week 1 total. Lane turned his three grabs into a measly 33 yards in that contest.
Michigan State’s disruptive defence should mess with the timing of USC’s offence. The deep ball will likely be tough to connect with tonight, making this under an appealing wager.
Daniels over 46.5 receiving yards (-122): This seems like a very reasonable line for Daniels.
The wide receiver has beaten this number in two of three games this season, with his lone miss coming in a 46-yard performance against Notre Dame.
Tonight, he battles a Florida defence that struggles to stop the pass.
Here’s where the Gators rank among all 136 FBS schools in a trio of key pass defence stats:
- 98th in pass success rate percentage (44.0%).
- 98th in yards per drop back (7.25).
- 69th in EPA per drop back (-0.02).
Overall, this is a below-average pass defence.
And while the unit likely allocates extra attention to freshman breakout Malachi Toney, Daniels should feast.
College football prop picks made at 1:40 p.m. on 09/20/2025.
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.