The first round of the College Football Playoff is here, and I’ve got a prediction for all four matchups.
The pregame narrative: First up, the Alabama Crimson Tide and Oklahoma Sooners square off in a rematch that should be a defensive struggle. Then, during Saturday’s tripleheader, look for the Oregon Ducks to bottle up James Madison’s Wayne Knight.
Check out my best 2025 College Football Playoff predictions for the Dec. 19-20 games, featuring prop picks on Jake Retzlaff and Malachi Toney.
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College Football Playoff predictions
Best bet: Retzlaff over 31.5 rushing yards (-122)
Quarterback rushing props can often be tricky enterprises at the collegiate level, given that sack yards count against a QB’s rushing total.
But Retzlaff seldom takes sacks, and he’s facing a team that doesn’t disrupt opposing QBs very effectively. So that’s not much of a concern for me.
- The Ole Miss Rebels’ defence is tied for 52nd in NCAA Division I in sack rate (6.28%) and tied for 55th in sacks per game (2.1).
- Retzlaff’s Tulane Green Wave have the fourth-lowest offence sack rate in D-I (2.51%).
-> Back Retzlaff and No. 11 Tulane vs. No. 6 Ole Miss
Retzlaff, the BYU transfer, has really made a point of using his legs this season. Through 13 games, he has 610 yards and 16 touchdowns.
In the same amount of games with BYU last season, he had 417 yards and six TDs.
Retzlaff’s willingness to run has meant the world to a Tulane squad that lost 1,400-yard rusher Makhi Hughes to the transfer portal this past offseason. No tailback has stepped up to fill the void, leaving Retzlaff as the lead runner.
Ole Miss has one of the absolute worst run defences in the country, according to Game On Paper. The Rebs rank 132nd in defensive EPA per rush and 130th in rushing success rate.
As three-score underdogs, the Green Wave might be in a lot of obvious passing situations. But those can turn into scramble situations for Retzlaff in a blink.
Key stat: Retzlaff is 8-5 vs. this prop and is averaging 46.9 rush yards per game this season.
Crimson Tide vs. Sooners CFP picks
Alabama/Oklahoma under 41.5 points (-114): Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables is arguably the most brilliant defensive mind in college football, and he just had three full weeks to prepare for this game. Saddle up.
This will be the second meeting between these schools in 2025, after the Sooners beat the Tide, 23-21, in Alabama on Nov. 15. The projected total for that game was 46.5, so the under cashed.
Last season, in Oklahoma, the Sooners won 24-3 while holding Alabama to 234 total yards.
-> Bet now on No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 8 Oklahoma
Unders are 6-1 when Oklahoma is at home this season — and 10-2 in the Sooners’ games overall.
Oh, and Alabama has cashed the under in nine of its past 10 games.
This should be a rock fight, with Oklahoma’s stout defence (No. 7 in scoring, No. 2 in success rate) leading the charge.
College football prop predictions
Knight under 70.5 rushing yards (-120): The Sun Belt’s rushing leader went over 70.5 yards in 11 of 13 games this season, but he’s in for a matchup unlike any other on Saturday night.
Knight’s James Madison Dukes are 21.5-point underdogs against the No. 5 Oregon Ducks, which is the largest spread of the CFP first round.
It’s also vastly different than what JMU is accustomed to after being favoured in 12 of 13 games this season.
The only time the Dukes weren’t favoured was back in Week 2 in a road date against Louisville. JMU was a 15-point dog and lost, 28-14. Knight was bottled up, accruing just 12 yards on five rushes.
Saturday’s game script should be working against Knight almost from the jump. And the Ducks are no slouches at defending the run.
Oregon ranks 17th in rush yards per attempt (3.3) and 20th in rush yards per game (112.8).
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NCAAF best bets
Malachi Toney over 78.5 receiving yards (-118): When No. 10 Miami faces No. 7 Texas A&M, it’ll be a battle of two strong pass offences against two strong pass defences.
Though I can’t say for sure which strengths will win out, I trust that the Hurricanes will do what it takes to get the ball in the hands of Toney.
The freshman has been a prominent piece of Mario Cristobal’s offence from the start, going for 80-plus yards in Weeks 1 and 2.
On the season, Toney is 6-6 vs. this yardage prop while averaging 80.8 yards.
The Miami native has seen eye-popping target shares in the past two games, and I’m hoping some of that production carries forward.
In Weeks 13 and 14, Toney had 25 catches (31 targets) for 272 yards and two TDs.
College Football Playoff predictions made at 12:15 p.m. on Dec. 18, 2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.