It’s rivalry week in NCAA Division I football, and I’m targeting some of the biggest matchups on Friday and Saturday.
The pregame narrative: In another instalment of The Game, the Ohio State Buckeyes are two-score road favourites against the Michigan Wolverines in a matchup that U of M has dominated recently. And in the Iron Bowl, look for Alabama’s Ty Simpson to put up big numbers against Auburn.
Check out our best college football Week 14 picks, featuring a prediction for the Georgia Bulldogs vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets matchup.
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College football picks Week 14
Best bet: Joey Aguilar over 278.5 passing yards (-120)
Aguilar was held to rather tame passing totals in the past two weeks, but he was still dominant in those games:
- Nov. 15 vs. New Mexico State: 17 for 23, 204 yards, 1 TD
- Nov. 22 at Florida: 17 for 22, 204 yards, 1 TD
The No. 19 Tennessee Volunteers won both of those games by 20+ points, so they didn’t need Aguilar to go nuclear.
But I’m encouraged by the efficiency, and I expect the Vols to roll with a more aggressive game script on Saturday.
-> Back Aguilar to put on a show vs. No. 14 Vanderbilt
Tennessee is very likely out of the College Football Playoff picture, but there are still in-state bragging rights and bowl invitations on the line with No. 14 Vanderbilt in town.
The Commodores’ pass defence has been brutal, ranking 122nd in yards per game (264.4) and 128th in EPA per pass, according to Game On Paper.
Each of Vandy’s past three opposing quarterbacks cruised past this number.
Aguilar has gone over 330 yards four times in conference play, so he’s absolutely capable of running up a big yardage total when the time is right. He should have a field day in Knoxville.
Key stat: Aguilar leads the SEC in passing yards per game (285.9)
Ohio State vs. Michigan ATS pick
Michigan +10 (-108): On paper, the top-ranked Buckeyes are miles ahead. But rivalry showdowns as big as this one are far more nuanced than that.
In a matchup known simply as The Game, the Wolverines are on a post-COVID run of inexplicable dominance.
- 4-0 SU and ATS vs. Ohio State
- 3 wins as an underdog of 7+ points
-> Bet on The Game between No. 1 Ohio State and No. 15 Michigan
Somehow, with putrid quarterback play from Davis Warren (9 for 16, 62 yards, two interceptions), Michigan pulled out a 13-10 win in Columbus last year. Now the Wolverines are at home with Bryce Underwood, an inexperienced but far more dynamic quarterback.
Michigan’s resume isn’t littered with great wins, but its only losses came on the road against top-20 opponents (No. 8 Oklahoma, No. 17 USC). The Wolverines rank 10th in D-I in EPA per play.
Ohio State ranks first in EPA per play, mind you, and has won nine straight games by 18+ points.
The Buckeyes could have both of their top receivers back, but neither Jeremiah Smith nor Carnell Tate appears to be at full strength after missing last week.
I can’t earnestly call for Michigan to pull off the five-peat. But the Wolverines can at least keep it close at home.
NCAAF picks and props
Georgia/Georgia Tech over 59.5 points (-112): Last year’s Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate was a banger, with Georgia eking out a 44-42 overtime win as a 17-point favourite.
This year’s matchup also tilts in the direction of Georgia (-14), but I’m not fixated on a side. I just think we’re going to see a lot of points.
- Overs are 5-2 in Georgia Tech’s past seven games.
- Both offences rank in the top 15 in EPA per play and success rate.
- Both defences rank outside the top 75 in EPA per play (and Georgia Tech is 107th in defensive success rate).
The Yellow Jackets are averaging 35.3 PPG thanks to the dual-threat ability of Haynes King. He had over 400 yards and five total TDs in this matchup last year and can turn this into a shootout.
Simpson over 1.5 passing TDs (-136): Simpson has failed to cash this bet in three straight games, but Alabama is still a pass-heavy enough team that I like his chances this week.
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- The redshirt junior leads the SEC in completions and pass attempts.
- He has a 22:4 TD-to-INT ratio in 11 games.
He’s also 8-3 vs. this passing TDs prop this season.
The Auburn Tigers’ defence ranks No. 1 in EPA per rush, and the Crimson Tide have struggled mightily to run the ball anyway. Look for Simpson to lead at least a couple of scoring drives that end with passing TDs.
College football picks made at 1:05 p.m. on Nov. 27, 2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.