The 2025 Cincinnati Open quarterfinal concludes on Friday with a few stars looking to secure their spots in the semifinal.
The pre-match narrative: Two top 10 players meet when Alexander Zverev and Ben Shelton face off for the final spot on the men’s side. On the women’s side, Coco Gauff looks to bounce back from her recent losses against Jasmine Paolini.
Check out my top Cincinnati Open tennis predictions, featuring a pick on Andrey Rublev vs. No. 2-ranked Carlos Alcaraz.
Cincinnati Open predictions
Best bet: Shelton/Zverev over 25.5 games (-107)
Shelton is white hot right now.
- He’s won nine straight matches. That includes securing his first title of the season, winning the National Bank Open in Toronto.
- Shelton has followed that up by winning all three matches at the Cincinnati Open in straight sets.
- The 22-year-old is 21-6 on hardcourts, shaping into an elite player on the surface.
Zverev has been rolling, too, winning two matches in straight sets before Karen Khachanov had to retire from their round of 16 matchup with an injury.
The world No. 3 is also a fantastic hardcourt player. His 220-102 record rivals the best in the sport.
That makes it hard to pick a side, especially between two players who are serving the ball extremely well.
But that does make the over intriguing, even on a higher total.
Key stat: At the Cincinnati Open, both Shelton and Zverev share an indentical 96% service hold rate, with each player being broken just once.
Paolini vs. Gauff best bet
Gauff -3.5 games (-117): When these two meet, the playing surface seems to be a notable factor.
- Paolini is 2-0 on clay while Gauff is 2-0 on hardcourts.
- It adds up as Paolini’s 57.7% win rate on hardcourts is significantly worse than her 64.9% win rate on clay.
Gauff is elite regardless of the court type. Her 147-64 record on hardcourts (69.7%) reflects that.
The American has had two convincing straight-set wins at the Cincinnati Open and got one extra match of rest because of a walkover.
Paolini has won all six of her sets at this event but needed three tiebreakers along the way.
Because of that, Gauff has played two fewer hours to reach the quarters, so I feel good backing the more rested, higher-ranked player with a surface advantage.
Rublev vs. Alcaraz best bet
Alcaraz -1.5 sets (-139): Alcaraz is on an incredible run in 2025.
- The Spaniard is 51-6 this season.
- He’s 27-1 in his last 28 matches, with the one loss coming against Jannik Sinner. But he also beat Sinner twice in that span.
Rublev is having a down year at 29-18, and his 13-8 hardcourt record isn’t all that impressive either.
Alexei Popyrin was the only top-20-ranked opponent he faced at this event, and he needed all three sets in the win.
The last time Rublev played someone in the top 10, he lost to Taylor Fritz in straight sets.
These two have never played on outdoor hardcourts, but they have played indoors, and Alcaraz won both of those matches without dropping a set.
Cincinnati Open predictions made at 10:11 a.m. on 08/15/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.