The 2025 Cincinnati Open men’s semifinal goes down today with ATP’s top three-ranked players all in action.
The pre-match narrative: First, it will be Jannik Sinner welcoming Terence Atmane to his first-ever ATP semifinal. Later on, Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev meet for an epic showdown for the remaining spot in the final.
Check out my top Cincinnati Open tennis predictions for the men’s semifinal.
Cincinnati Open predictions
Best bet: Zverev/Alcaraz under 23.5 games (-120)
These two have played each other 11 times since the start of 2021, so there’s plenty of data to study.
They are pretty evenly split, with Zverev winning six matches to Alcaraz’s five.
But the most notable thing to me was how quick most of the matches were.
Four of those 11 matches were at Grand Slam majors, so I’m not including those three-set matches. But, in the other seven, six were settled in straight sets with all of them going under today’s total.
It seems like this is one of those matchups where whoever’s the better player on that day dominates.
And I’m expecting that again with how these two have been rolling at the Cincinnati Open.
Key stat: Six of the eight matches played by either Zverev or Alcaraz have gone under this total.
Sinner vs. Atmane best bet
Sinner -2.5 games in Set 1 (+100): The goal here is to find value on Sinner and I think this is the best way to go.
- The Italian is 3-1 against this wager at the Cincinnati Open.
- Sinner has only faced six break points while having 44 opportunities to break his opponent.
- Most notably, he beat Felix Auger-Aliassime in the quarterfinal and dominated the first set, winning 6-0.
The world No. 1 is an incredible server and his court IQ is unmatched. It’s not a stretch to say he looks unbeatable right now.
Sinner is undefeated on hardcourts this season (11-0) and 51-5 since the start of 2024.
In those 11 wins, he covered this first set spread eight times. Much of the competition he faced was better than Atmane, who ranks 136th in the world.
I do have to give the Frenchman his flowers, though. He’s won seven matches at this event — five of them in straight sets.
That includes knocking off Taylor Fritz and Holger Rune in back-to-back matches.
But that also means Atmane has played almost 11 hours of tennis at this event compared to Sinner, who has played just under six.
I fully expect Sinner to assert his dominance early, which should result in a quick first set.
Cincinnati Open predictions made at 10:11 a.m. on 08/16/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.