Several top players take part in the round of 16 on the men’s side of the China Open.
The pre-match narrative: Daniil Medvedev has been free-falling down the rankings as he looks to start a bounce back against a familiar foe in Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. Before that, Jannik Sinner aims to advance past Terence Atmane in Beijing.
Check out my top men’s China Open predictions for the round of 16, plus a pick for the round of 32 women’s match between Leylah Fernandez and Coco Gauff.
China Open predictions: Round of 16
Best bet: Fokina to win (+102)
Fokina was 0-4 against Medvedev in his career before finally defeating his counterpart last time out.
- The match was last August, and Fokina won in three sets.
- This season, Fokina is the much better player on hard courts, holding a 21-12 record.
- Medvedev has struggled on the playing surface. His 14-11 hardcourt record is part of the reason he’s fallen to No. 18 in the ATP rankings.
Medvedev has always been a reliable player, but this season has been a roller coaster. He’s only made it past the quarterfinal in three of 19 events.
And this has arguably been his worst stretch. He’s 3-5 in his last eight matches without playing any top 30 opponents.
Fokina took some time off after the U.S. Open to recover from an injury, and now looks fresh. He dominated his last match, winning 12 of 16 games against Camilo Ugo Carabelli.
Key stat: Medvedev’s 58.3% win rate on hard courts in 2025 is his worst mark since 2017.
China Open best bet: Sinner vs. Atmane
Under 19.5 games (-129): Sinner has been historically dominant this season against opponents not named Carlos Alcaraz.
The Italian is on a 56-match winning streak against players outside of the top 20 on hard courts.
In his 19 wins on the playing surface this season, he’s only lost four sets. That gives him an incredibly high floor against lower-ranked opponents.
Atmane is the No. 68-ranked player, and that’s his highest ranking ever.
He was on the best run of his career at the Cincinnati Open in August before running into Sinner in the semifinal.
The Frenchman was able to keep the first set close, losing on a tiebreaker. As Sinner figured out his opponent, he started dominating. He won the second set 6-2.
With that experience against Atmane under his belt, I expect a more conclusive win this time around.
China Open round of 32 pick: Gauff vs. Fernandez
Over 20.5 games (-110): This is my preferred way to back the Canadian to keep this match close.
Fernandez is playing well right now, winning four of her last six matches. Plus, she’s been competitive enough in the two losses to push the total games over this mark.
One of the defeats was against world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka. She lost in straight sets, but Sabalenka squeaked out a tiebreaker to close out the match.
Fernandez has her best winning percentage on hard courts, holding a 62.1% win rate.
Gauff is elite, no doubt, but she’s often involved in long matches because of her ability to hold serve.
She wins 68.5% of her service points, which is a tier below other elite players. For example, Sabalenka holds at a 77.7% rate.
Even Fernandez has a better hold rate this season (71.6%). That should help her stay in this match.
China Open predictions made at 12:25 p.m. on 09/26/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.