The Kansas City Chiefs visit the Atlanta Falcons for a primetime battle on Sunday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: Atlanta showed it had some fight in Week 2. I like the Falcons to keep this contest within a touchdown. Carson Steele appears to be the apparent favourite to lead the Chiefs’ backfield, but I prefer Samaje Perine. Thirdly, I’m taking the over on Bijan Robinson’s rushing yards total.
Check out our Chiefs vs. Falcons predictions for the matchup on Sept. 22.
Chiefs vs. Falcons SGP predictions
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Parlay: Falcons +7.5 + Perine over 38.5 rushing and receiving yards + Robinson over 69.5 rushing yards (+375)
Falcons +7.5 (-235): Kansas City enters this contest 2-0 but this is a lot of points for any squad.
Despite knocking off the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals, the Chiefs didn’t cover this spread in either game this season. Their offence has been solid, ranking seventh in yards per play (5.9), but their defence is tied for allowing the eighth-most yards per play (5.7) in the NFL.
The Falcons’ offence seemed to figure something out in the second half of their Week 2 win over the Philadelphia Eagles. Atlanta recorded 209 yards of offence and put up 16 points in the second half en route to a comeback, 22-21 victory.
With Cousins settling into his new digs I expect the Falcons to keep it competitive against the Chiefs as they hit the road for the first time this season.
Other parlay picks
Perine over 38.5 rushing and receiving yards (-112): The rushing and receiving yards lines for Week 3 suggest Steele is the 1A and Perine is the 1B but I’m not so sure about that.
Steele’s rushing and receiving yards line is resting at 54.5 while Perine’s is at 38.5. The issue I take in that is the former hasn’t done much to earn his stripes in the NFL.
The rookie runner has turned nine carries into an uninspiring 27 yards and a fumble while providing nothing as a receiver. He has logged 19 snaps through the first couple of contests.
Perine has only logged two fewer snaps (17) and although he hasn’t logged a carry, he has two receptions on three targets. The veteran also has a lengthy track record that suggests he’s a capable all-around back.
Perine totalled 455 receiving yards and averaged 4.5 yards per carry on 50 totes in 2023 despite only logging one start.
I expect head coach Andy Reid to favour experience in this situation, which makes this line seem a little light.
Robinson over 69.5 rushing yards (-115): Robinson showed why he’s one of the top running backs in the NFL in Week 2.
The second-year pro gashed a very good Eagles run defence last Monday. He turned 14 carries into 97 yards and added 25 receiving yards in a strong showing.
A similar effort should be expected against Kansas City. The Chiefs have really struggled to stop the run this season. They’re ceding a lofty 4.8 yards per carry in 2024, a continuation of their 2023 issues.
Kansas City conceded 4.4 yards per rush last year.
Picks made at 9:13 a.m. on 09/22/24.
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.