The Kansas City Chiefs put their 2-0 record on the line against the Atlanta Falcons.
The pregame narrative: Atlanta was staring down an 0-2 start before a last-minute drive from Kirk Cousins changed everything. In Week 3, I expect Bijan Robinson to lead the Falcons’ offence. Isiah Pacheco’s absence makes Samaje Perine and Carson Steele intriguing prop plays.
Check out my Chiefs vs. Falcons prop picks for Sept. 22.
Chiefs vs. Falcons prop picks
Full NFL Week 3 betting markets: Click Here
Best Bet: Perine over 39.5 rushing and receiving yards (-112)
Pacheco’s absence creates a major void in Kansas City’s backfield.
The Chiefs running back logged 80% of the team’s offensive snaps in Week 1 and 66% in Week 2 before exiting with an injury.
Kareem Hunt was signed to the squad earlier this week but he won’t be active. That leaves Perine, Steele and Keaontay Ingram as the three remaining backs on the squad.
Ingram hasn’t played a snap yet this season so he likely won’t see much action. The rushing and receiving yards lines suggest that Steele will take over, but I have my doubts (more on that later).
The veteran Perine is who I suspect will benefit the most from this opportunity. Perine is a fine all-around back who can make plays as a rusher and in the receiving game. He recorded 455 receiving yards and averaged 4.5 yards per carry on 53 attempts last year.
Perine is capable in both aspects, but his receiving chops are where I expect him to really put up some numbers.
Key stat: Pacheco totalled 42 touches in Weeks 1 and 2, which gives an indication of the opportunity volume that could now be open to Perine.
Quick picks
Steele under 54.5 rushing and receiving yards (-118): Steele’s rushing and receiving yards line is 15 yards more than Perine’s.
That discrepancy suggests that the rookie will be more involved than the veteran, but I’m not so sure about that.
Steele has only logged two more snaps (19-17) than Perine and really hasn’t done much with his opportunities. He’s turned nine carries into 27 yards and a fumble through two weeks.
Steele hasn’t been involved as a receiver and his college resume suggests that’ll continue. He only logged 20-plus receptions in one of his three seasons of college football.
Steele’s fumble in Week 2 might convince head coach Andy Reid to lean more on the trusted veteran Perine.
Robinson over 71.5 rushing yards (-114): If there’s one weakness of the Chiefs, it’s their inability to stop the run.
Kansas City ceded the ninth-most yards per carry (4.4) in the NFL last season and its been more of the same in 2024. The squad is allowing 4.8 yards per rush through two weeks.
The Falcons should be incentivized to turn this game over to the trusted hands of Robinson. The 2022 first-round pick is coming off a strong showing against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Robinson turned 14 carries into 97 yards in a winning effort.
With Arthur Smith gone, Robinson’s involvement in the offence has grown significantly. He’s playing on 82% of the offensive snaps after seeing just 68% of them in 2023.
Picks made at 12:40 p.m. ET 09/21/2024.
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.