The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills meet in the must-see matchup of Week 11.
The pregame narrative: Buffalo is down some key pass-catchers with Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid out. Their absences should lead to a big day from Dawson Know. Additionally, I’m taking the over on Kareem Hunt’s receiving yards prop.
Check out my Chiefs vs. Bills prop picks for Week 11 below.
Chiefs vs. Bills prop picks
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Best Bet: Knox over 29.5 receiving yards (-106)
Injuries should pave the way for Knox to have a strong receiving day.
Coleman and Kincaid’s absences, especially the latter’s, will give the tight end increased opportunities. Knox logged a season-high 70% snap share with Kincaid banged up last week and finished with two catches for 40 yards.
There are a couple of indicators that point to his involvement increasing further in Week 11.
The first is Kansas City’s steadfast ability to clamp down on opposing wide receivers. The Chiefs are surrendering the second-fewest receiving yards per game to the position (111.7), according to Yahoo Fantasy.
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The second is Kansas City’s inability to cover tight ends. The Chiefs are ceding the most receiving yards per game to tight ends (77.6).
This kind of defence should lead Josh Allen to funnel targets toward the middle of the field. Knox should be busy and beat this modest total.
Key stat: Knox has topped this total in two of his last three games, totalling 95 receiving yards in those contests.
Quick pick
Hunt over 15.5 receiving yards (-112): This is a mouthwatering matchup for Hunt.
He battles a Buffalo defence that has struggled to limit opposing running backs through the air. The Bills allow the most receiving yards per game to the position (54.5).
A running back has topped this receiving total in two of Buffalo’s last three games.
It helps that Hunt is coming off his best game as a receiver since joining Kansas City. He hauled in seven of his 10 targets for 65 yards in Week 10’s contest against the Denver Broncos.
Similar usage isn’t out of the realm of possibility in this game. Buffalo is surrendering the most receptions per game to RBs (6.6).
Picks made at 3:29 p.m. ET 11/16/2024.
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.