The 2025 NFL playoffs have arrived as the Houston Texans host the Los Angeles Chargers on Saturday afternoon.
The pregame narrative: Houston has struggled down the home stretch of the season, which is why I’m backing Los Angeles as the road favourite. Prop plays on Justin Herbert and Ladd McConkey round out this +265 wager.
Check out my Chargers vs. Texans same-game parlay predictions.
Chargers vs. Texans same-game parlay predictions
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Parlay: Chargers moneyline + Herbert 220+ passing yards + McConkey 75+ receiving yards (+265)
Chargers moneyline (-152): The Chargers won three straight games ahead of the playoffs, as head coach Jim Harbaugh seems to have his guys geared for a run in January.
The main focus Harbaugh brought this year was stability on defence, which was something former L.A. coach Brandon Staley lacked. Here’s how the 2024 Chargers defence ranks:
- 1st in scoring (17.7 PPG)
- 7th in passing (206.9 yards/game)
- 11th in total defence (324.4 yards/game)
Safety Derwin James is having another Pro-Bowl-calibre season, and 33-year-old Khalil Mack is turning back the clock by playing some of the best football of his career.
Another huge part of the Chargers’ success down the stretch has been the performance of Herbert, but I’ll get more into that in a bit.
With Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell’s season-ending injuries, I don’t believe the Texans have the weapons to beat Los Angeles.
Other parlay picks
Herbert over 220+ passing yards (-157): From Weeks 1-7, I nearly thought Herbert would get benched for Taylor Heinicke — he was that bad.
In those six games, Herbert threw just six touchdowns and posted a 53.8 QBR (on a 0-100 scale). His team went 3-3.
But like all great athletes, Herbert was able to flip a switch. Before long, the gunslinger quarterback we all saw earlier in his career started to show.
In the final 11 games of the season, he threw for 246.0 yards per game while posting a 17:2 TD-to-INT ratio and a 66.3 QBR.
Having a strong run game always helps, as J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards were a solid one-two punch in the backfield, amassing nearly 1,300 yards on the ground.
Herbert has cleared this mark in three straight games and eight of his last 13.
Houston’s pass defence has been susceptible to porous efforts down the stretch. The team has allowed 220-plus yards through the air in six of its last eight games.
McConkey 75+ receiving yards (-113): McConkey has been a dog this season, and I mean that in all the best ways possible.
The second-round pick out of Georgia may have been the steal of the 2024 draft class.
McConkey caught 82 passes for 1,149 yards and seven touchdowns in his first season with the Chargers.
He’s cleared 75 receiving yards in five of the last seven contests, averaging over 93 yards per game during that stretch.
The aforementioned former Georgia Bulldog has ample big-game experience. Having won back-to-back national championships in 2021 and 2022, I don’t suspect he’ll shy away when the lights get bright.
Picks made at 12:38 p.m. ET on 01/10/2025.
