The first leg of the Champions League semifinal is this week, and I’ve got one bet from each game.
The pregame narrative: Arsenal host Paris Saint-Germain on Tuesday, and the Parisians are seeking to eliminate a third English side. After that, offensive juggernaut Barcelona clashes with defensive stalwart Inter Milan.
Check out the best Champions League predictions for the quarterfinal second leg.
Champions League predictions
Best Bet: Barcelona under 1.5 goals (+125)
Fading Barcelona at home is a scary proposition, but if there was a time to do it, it’s now.
Hansi Flick’s side was dealt a major blow when Robert Lewandowski went down with an injury against Celta Vigo on April 19.
The Polish striker has scored 40 goals across all competitions for the club, and he will be impossible to replace in aggregate. Ferran Torres moved up into the starting role for Saturday’s Copa del Rey final and scored, but played 114 minutes after not playing a full 90 since February 6th.
I’m curious to see his — and the rest of the team’s — fitness levels with just three days of rest between these huge games.
Barca scored two regulation goals in El Clasico, but Real Madrid’s defence has been suspect all season. The same can’t be said about Inter Milan, which is arguably the best defensive side in Europe.
- The Nerazzurri have allowed the fewest goals per game in the UCL (0.4).
- They have held opponents to fewer than 1.5 goals in 39 of 51 games across all competitions (76.4%).
Inter Milan will be playing for a draw away from home, and I expect Simone Inzaghi’s side to park the bus in a low-event game.
Key stat: Inter Milan’s opponents have gone under 1.5 goals in 11 of 12 Champions League games (eight clean sheets).
Go to full Champions League betting markets.
Quick pick
PSG to win or tie (-136): Arsenal made minced meat of Real Madrid in the Champions League quarterfinal, which was a shock to many, myself included.
The Gunners jumped out to a 3-0 lead at the Emirates in the opening leg and eventually won, 5-1, on aggregate. They’ll hope to do the same on Tuesday, but I have my doubts.
As mentioned earlier, Real Madrid has some fraudulent tendencies. The club had allowed the most xG of any team in the Champions League this year. PSG, meanwhile, has been one of the best teams in the tournament by several of FotMob’s metrics:
- 1st in match rating (7.26)
- 2nd in xG (30.4)
- 2nd in SOT/match (7.2)
- 3rd in possession (63.6)
The Parisians have only lost five matches across all competitions all season. Granted, two of those were on the road in the Champions League, but each came by just one goal.
I expect Luis Enrique’s side to secure a result.
Champions League predictions made at 2:30 p.m. on 04/27/25.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.