This week’s Champions League picks feature one home and one away side.
The pregame narrative: Paris Saint-Germain is in danger of missing out on the knockout rounds but I think it can get things going against a struggling Manchester City side. Also, back PSV Eindhoven to pick up three points when they travel to Serbia to take on Red Star Belgrade.
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Best Bet: PSG draw no bet (-129)
It’s been a tale of two seasons for PSG.
The Parisians are unbeaten in Ligue 1, sporting a stellar 14-4-0 record and a +32 goal differential. Things haven’t gone nearly as well in the Champions League, though, as the squad currently sits 25th at 2-1-3.
But I don’t think they’re playing as poorly as that record suggests.
- PSG lost two away fixtures to Arsenal and Bayern Munich, which are tough matchups for any team.
- Its other UCL loss came at home to Atletico Madrid, in a game where PSG generated 1.4 more expected goals than its counterparts.
- PSG’s defence has been stellar this tournament, only allowing six goals and 4.4 xG (the fewest of any team).
Scoring in the Champions League has been the problem for Luis Enrique’s side but I’m confident that’ll change on Wednesday.
PSG has won all four of its fixtures in 2025 while scoring nine goals. More importantly, it’s playing a Manchester City team devastated by injuries on the defensive end.
Rodri is leaving a Ballon d’Or-sized hole in the midfield and John Stones is missing from the back line.
The Citizens have either won or drawn six straight matches in all competitions but against awful opponents. Before that, they were 1-2-9 in their previous 12.
Key stat: Manchester City has lost its last two UCL road fixtures by a combined score of 6-1.
Quick picks
PSV moneyline (-124): The Rajko Mitić Stadium is a hostile environment for any away side but Red Star’s lineup doesn’t pack as big of a punch as its fans do.
- Belgrade is leading the Serbian SuperLiga table at 19-1-0 but is a horrible 1-0-5 in Champions League play.
- It has conceded the third-most goals (19) and the fourth-most expected goals (13.6), according to FBRef.
PSV also tops its domestic table, leading Eredivisie with a 15-1-3 record. But Peter Bosz’s side has faired better in European play, sporting a 2-2-2 record while conceding just eight goals.
The Dutchmen are currently sitting on the playoff bubble and have a tough fixture against Liverpool up next. I expect them to throw everything at getting three points on the road here.
Picks made at 3:00 p.m. on 01/19/25.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.