Three goal totals are featured for this week’s Champions League predictions.
The pregame narrative: Bayer Leverkusen should have trouble scoring when they host reigning Italian champions Inter Milan in an eye-popping match. Elsewhere, back the overs in matches involving PSV and AC Milan.
Check out the best Champions League predictions for Matchday 6.
Champions League predictions
Go to full Champions League betting markets.
Best Bet: Bayer Leverkusen under 1.5 total goals (-138)
Bayer Leverkusen has struggled to score against sturdy defences. I expect goals will be hard to come by when facing Inter Milan’s compact backline.
Slowly but surely, the reigning German champions have regressed from their historic campaign with cracks appearing in their armour.
In the competition, Leverkusen has failed to score multiple goals in three of five matches — including a 1-0 victory to AC Milan and a 1-1 draw to Brest.
Its recent domestic form hasn’t been convincing either. Last week, Leverkusen mustered just 1.07 expected goals in the 1-0 win at Bayern Munich despite playing with a man advantage for 76 minutes.
With top goalscorer Victor Boniface sidelined through injury and Patrik Schick on potential time constraints, Leverkusen won’t pose much of an attacking threat to Inter’s defence.
Simone Inzaghi’s squad is loaded with savvy veterans with the likes of Federico Dimarco, Matteo Darmian and Alessandro Bastoni. They can defend in a low-back setup and win back possession in the final third.
So far, Champions League opponents have yet to score off the Black and Blues, with clean sheets over British giants Manchester City and Arsenal.
Playing at home in front of an energetic crowd could see Leverkusen deliver a result, but scoring twice off Inter is a tall task.
Key stat: Inter Milan remains the only team in the Champions League to not allow a goal.
Quick picks
Brest/PSV over 2.5 goals (-138): I believe this matchup has the potential for plenty of goals.
It’s worth highlighting that PSV has scored 56 goals in the Eredivisie campaign. They have the highest mark from a team after 15 matches in 37 seasons, per OptaJohan on X.
Peter Bosz’s squad has the perfect blend of young and experienced attackers that can outwit opposing defences.
The American duo of Ricardo Pepi and Malik Tillman has taken the Dutch league by storm. They combined for 16 goals in the Eredivisie.
Offensively, Brest is rated below average in Ligue 1. But the squad has delivered on the grandest stage by scoring in four of its five matches in the competition.
PSV has just one UCL clean sheet and recently allowed two goals to an offensively-weak Shakhtar Donetsk side.
AC Milan/Red Star Belgrade over 3 (-125): This line is awfully low for a contest between two sides with explosive attacks and suspect defences.
For Milan, Christian Pulisic is expected to miss this match after sustaining an injury during the weekend. However, the attack is still packed with dangerous forwards Rafael Leao and Alvaro Morata.
In midfield, Dutch international Tijjani Reijnders has enjoyed a breakout campaign by scoring six goals in all competitions.
Paulo Moresca’s attack is more than capable of racking up goals off a Red Star Belgrade club that’s allowed the second-most goals (17) in the tournament.
Red Star recorded a goal in four of its five matches, most notably two off Spanish giants Barcelona.
With a goal total set at three, I say this is an overreaction to the loss of a star player.
Picks made at 1:45 p.m. on 12/09/24.
