The No. 1-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers have their backs against the wall as they head to Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Friday to take on the Indiana Pacers.
The pregame narrative: Indiana won both games on the road behind some Tyrese Haliburton heroics, and now has a chance to put Cleveland in a back-breaking 3-0 hole. Evan Mobley and Darius Garland are both questionable for the Cavs after missing Game 2.
Check out my Cavaliers vs. Pacers SGP predictions for May 9, featuring Mobley and Myles Turner.
Cavaliers vs. Pacers predictions
Parlay: Pacers +10.5 | Turner over 23.5 points and rebounds | Mobley over 16.5 points (+300)
Pacers +10.5 (-385): I think it’s time we put some respect on the Pacers’ name.
Indiana made light work of the Milwaukee Bucks in the first round, and now has the conference’s top seed on the ropes. And while it might seem like a surprise, it shouldn’t be.
Rick Carlisle’s squad was one of the league’s best teams following the all-star break (NBA ranks in parentheses):
- 20-9 record (fifth)
- +5.6 net rating (seventh)
- 111.5 defensive rating (eighth)
In that same span, Cleveland went 20-8 with a +6.8 net rating. I can’t see the Cavs putting together a blowout win given that they’re banged up and on the road.
Indiana is 5-1 straight up against Cleveland this year, covering this line in the only loss.
NBA SGP legs
Turner over 23.5 points and rebounds (-117): Turner has cleared this line in four straight games, smashing it in three of them:
- Game 2 vs. CLE: 23 points, 8 rebounds
- Game 1 vs. CLE: 13 points, 11 rebounds
- Game 5 vs. MIL: 21 points, 9 rebounds
- Game 4 vs. MIL: 23 points, 5 rebounds
Indiana’s centre is getting big minutes (32.2 in the playoffs) and has some stark home/away splits.
He averaged 23.9 points and rebounds at home during the regular season and 20.6 on the road.
Jarrett Allen is a capable rebounder, but the 6-foot-11, 250-pound Turner is by far the biggest player on the court for either team.
He should continue to do damage on the glass, and is shooting a respectable 50.6% this postseason (37.5% from 3).
Mobley over 16.5 points (-132): I’m taking a swing on Mobley, who missed Game 2 with an ankle injury.
There’s optimism that the Cavaliers’ big man will suit up tonight, according to Joe Vardon of The Athletic, but this is obviously something to monitor heading into game time.
One thing I do know is that when Mobley’s on the floor, he’s been effective:
- 16.3 PPG
- 59.5% shooting (47.1% from 3)
- 17+ points in 4 of 5 games
He has scored 20 points twice this postseason, including Game 1 against the Pacers. Indiana struggles to defend the mid-range, and that’s a spot Mobley can cook in.
Cavaliers vs. Pacers predictions made at 10:30 a.m. ET 05/09/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.