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How to bet on the Maple Leafs: Puck lines, game totals and player props

Are you a die-hard Toronto Maple Leafs fan who wants to learn about how to bet on the Maple Leafs? If you are, you’ve come to the right place.

From moneylines to totals to props and more, we’ll take a look at all the different ways you can wager on the Blue and White. We’ll also look at different strategies you can employ when looking to bet on game night.

-> New to NHL wagering? Sign up at NorthStar Bets to get the latest odds, insights and betting tools throughout the season.

Below is our guide on how to bet on the Maple Leafs.

How to bet on the Maple Leafs

You will be presented with hundreds of betting markets any time the Maple Leafs play. What you ultimately decide to wager on will likely come down to several factors. That includes the opponent, location, trends, health of the roster and so on.

We’ll take a look at some of the common markets that are available each game and offer strategies on how to find the best value when betting on the Maple Leafs.

-> Before you get started, create your NorthStar Bets account to explore live odds and daily NHL markets.

Moneyline vs. puck line

You have a couple of ways of betting on the Maple Leafs to beat their opponent. One way is to bet them to win straight up, which is known as the moneyline. You can add a handicap and take them to win by multiple goals (the puck line).

Picking between the moneyline and the puck line really comes down to value.

For starters, what’s the price? In other words, what odds are you getting the Leafs at and why is that important?

It’s important because the Leafs would certainly be large favourites in certain matchups. Because of that, the price (odds) set on the moneyline wouldn’t yield a strong return on your investment.

For a game against the Columbus Blue Jackets, the Leafs would likely have an implied probability of winning around 75 percent. That would price them as a -300 favourite. Note: A favourite will always have a minus (-) sign before its odds, while the underdog will have a plus (+) designation.

-> Want to see current Leafs moneyline prices? Check the latest at NorthStar Bets

You would also have the option to take the Leafs to win in regulation at say -180. If you elected to go that route, keep in mind that you would lose your ticket on an overtime win. This is known as a 3-way moneyline pick.

As for the puck line, which comes with a spread, the Leafs would need to win and do it by at least two goals. Your potential return would be much better, though. Here you would see Toronto listed at -1.5 (the handicap/spread) but since winning by two goals is more difficult than winning by one, the odds would change (let’s say to -130).

If you really sensed a blowout coming, you could also bet an alternative puck line and set the Leafs’ handicap at -2.5 (or greater). Now you would be able to get them at plus-money odds (+140). Your potential return would be greater here because the Leafs would have to win by at least three goals for you to cash your bet.

Here’s a look at what your net profit would be based on the odds used in the above examples:

Odds	Implied win probability	Wager amount	To win
-300	75%	$300	$100
-180	64.29%	$180	$100
-130	56.52%	$130	$100
+140	41.67%	$100	$140

Since any team can win on any given night, we would never suggest taking the Leafs on the moneyline at -300. When the odds are that high, the risk simply isn’t worth the reward. There are better plays than taking them at -180 to win in regulation, too.

While the Leafs might be the superior team, beating any NHL team by three or more goals is a difficult feat, which is reflected in the alternate puck line odds. It is deemed the least likely outcome of the ones cited above, which is why it has the greatest payout.

Each game is unique and will have its own set of circumstances, but the recommended choice here would be to take the Leafs -1.5 on the puck line.

-> Ready to try puck line betting? Join NorthStar Bets and explore live, moving lines daily.

How to bet on Maple Leafs totals

We will stick with the Leafs and Blue Jackets example. The majority of games have a total (the amount of goals that will be scored) of 6.5 but can be set lower or higher.

The 5.5 number is typically the most common alternative. That means you can place a bet on whether the clubs will combine to go over or under that number. The over/under, or O/U, are just different ways to refer to the total.

This is a straightforward bet and the odds on either play (the over or the under) are more closely aligned than certain moneyline odds for a matchup, which can have large discrepancies.

You can also bet on a team’s total. Team totals are set lower, at say 2.5 or 3.5.

Why would you want to wager on the team total over the game total?

In that Leafs and Blue Jackets matchup, perhaps you aren’t confident that the Blue Jackets can generate much offence but don’t feel Toronto will have trouble scoring. That may make you more comfortable predicting the Leafs’ team total instead.

-> Compare totals across every Leafs matchup when you sign up for NorthStar Bets

How to bet on Maple Leafs props

Props are another way to bet on the contest and involve wagering on certain games or individual outcomes. You could bet the over/under on how many shots the two teams will combine for, or the O/U on total power-play goals, or even predict the highest-scoring period.

There are also player props, which is what we will focus on here.

Common player props include betting on the number of goals, assists, points, power-play points and shots on net a player will accumulate in a particular game.

You may find it to be a good opportunity to jump on Maple Leafs player props when they are playing a poor defensive team that allows a lot of shots on net and has its backup goalie in net.

This might be a good time to wager on Auston Matthews to score a goal. As a player who fires the puck on net a lot, you may also want to take the over on his shots on goal prop (this is usually set around 4.5).

Betting on a player to score (anytime goalscorer) can be valuable but the odds change from game to game. For an elite goalscorer like Matthews, there are certainly more opportune times to bet on that prop than others.

You might see the odds for him to score at -125 but other times you can get it at +120.

For a bettor, getting Matthews at plus money offers greater value. Goals are hard to predict, so it’s important to keep an eye on the odds to maximize your return on investment. Odds matter for any bet you are contemplating wagering on.

Sticking with Matthews, betting the over on his shot total is a lot more appealing when the odds are +120 instead of -140. Context matters, too, such as the opponent’s recent trends or the goalie the team is facing.

-> Check out the latest player props every day at NorthStar Bets – from betting goals, shots on goal and much more

-> Check out the latest player props every day at NorthStar Bets – from betting goals, shots on goal and much more

Parlays and more

Parlays require you to be right about multiple outcomes to win your bet. You bet on two or more events (known as legs) on a single ticket and place one wager. If you don’t get everything correct on the parlay, you lose.

You can create all sorts of parlays, including picking the Leafs and other NHL teams to win. You can also find pre-built parlays at NorthStar Bets and assemble your own same-game parlay.

Let’s once again go back to the Leafs and Blue Jackets example. Perhaps you’ve decided that the Leafs will win, the two teams will combine for more than 5.5 goals, and Matthews will score. You could make separate wagers on all three of those outcomes, but you may also have the option to select all three as a single wager through a special offer or by building your own SGP.

-> Build your own Leafs same-game parlay when you join NorthStar Bets

Here’s an example of what that could look like:

Leafs to win, over 5.5 total goals, Matthews to score (+350).

If you bet those separately, the odds would look something like this:

Leafs to win (-300)
Over 5.5 goals (-110)
Matthews to score (-105)

Why are the odds so different? Unlike a single-event wager, that SGP would require all three outcomes to be correct in order to win.

Needing two-plus outcomes to all be right in order to cash your ticket decreases your chances of winning. But it also increases your payout potential, which is why they can be attractive to bettors.

There are more ways to get in on the Maple Leafs action through live betting and the futures market. Futures betting is where you can pick the Leafs to win the Cup or for Matthews to win the Hart.

-> Ready to put your Leafs knowledge to use ? Sign up for NorthStar Bets to access live odds, props, parlays and exclusive Canadian Insights all season long

How to bet on the Flames: Props, totals and parlays

The Calgary Flames aren’t flashy, but they’re a tough out on most nights.

Their blend of skill and grit makes them a team most opponents loathe playing against. Nothing is given when going up against this team, and their style is something bettors should certainly keep in mind when looking to put down on a Flames game.

For those unsure of how to bet on the Flames, we’re here to help. We’ll review some of the different options available to you in this betting guide.

How to bet on the Flames

There’s no shortage of options when it comes to betting on the Flames. But there are a number of different factors you should focus on that may ultimately influence what you decide to bet on — whether that’s the Flames moneyline or a Jonathan Huberdeau scoring prop.

Those factors include the opponent, location, trends, injuries and the odds.

We’ll explore some of the most popular betting markets and offer advice on how to place the best wagers.

Moneyline

A moneyline (ML) bet is the most straightforward wager you can make on a hockey game. This type of bet involves picking the straight-up winner of a game.

You will win your moneyline bet if you correctly pick who comes out on top. The margin of victory or whether the contest ends in regulation, overtime or a shootout doesn’t matter.

The favourite for the game will have a minus (-) symbol in front of its odds and the underdog will be denoted with a plus (+) symbol.

Calgary grades out as a middle-of-the-pack team which means its status as a favourite or underdog is tied largely to opponent and location. The Flames would be a favourite in a home game against the Nashville Predators. Calgary would also be favoured if it hosted the Anaheim Ducks.

The Flames would likely be listed as an underdog, however, in a road tilt versus the Colorado Avalanche.

Moneyline odds

The odds for each of those hypothetical games would look something like this:

Predators (+160) vs. Flames (-180)
Canucks (+170) vs. Flames (-200)
Flames (+205) vs. Avalanche (-240)

Those odds tell us a few things, including who the favourite and underdog is. It also tells us what our sportsbook believes each of those teams’ chances of winning is in addition to how much you could profit on a successful bet.

Odds	Implied probability	Wager amount	To win
-180	64.29%	$180	$100
-200	66.67%	$200	$100
+205	32.79%	$100	$205

The Avalanche contest is the game that makes the most sense to place a moneyline wager on.

Although Calgary’s chances of winning are deemed lowest in that example, a 32.79% implied win probability is still roughly a one-in-three chance. The ROI is strong, too, as it would require a $100 wager to profit $205.

A moneyline bet may also be in consideration for the Predators game, as the implied win probability is fairly high and staking $180 to win $100 isn’t the worst. Though it is admittedly creeping into low-value territory.

We wouldn’t recommend an ML bet in the Ducks game. Staking $200 to win $100 isn’t a great bet to make. Therefore, in either of those contests, it may be a better opportunity to bet on the Flames puck line.

Puck line

In addition to making a moneyline bet, you’ll also have the option of wagering on the puck line. Unlike the moneyline, a puck line wager involves betting against a point spread.

Puck lines are typically set at 1.5 and can sometimes be 2.5 or higher. They are also accompanied by odds which reflect the potential payout for a successful puck line wager.

Continuing with the examples from the moneyline section, the puck lines for Flames games would look something like this:

Predators +1.5 (-155) vs. Flames -1.5 (+135)
Ducks +1.5 (-140) vs. Flames -1.5 (+120)
Flames +1.5 (-140) vs. Avalanche -1.5 (+120)

The -1.5 next to the Flames in the first two examples means that Calgary is the favourite and would have 1.5 goals subtracted from its total. In order to cover the puck line, Calgary would have to win the game by two goals or more.

Against the Avalanche, on the other hand, the +1.5 next to Calgary’s total represents its status as the underdog. Therefore, to cover the puck line in that game, the Flames could lose by a goal or win outright.

As a result, the payouts for a bet on Calgary in each instance would look like this:

Odds	Implied win probability	Wager amount	To win
+135	42.55%	$100	$135
+120	45.45%	$100	$120
-140	58.33%	$140	$100

It makes much more sense to back Calgary on the puck line rather than the moneyline in the Predators and Ducks games.

Against Nashville, a $100 bet on the puck line wins $135 and has a respectable 42.55% implied win probability. Similarly, against Anaheim, a $100 wager nets $120 and has a 45.45% implied win probability.

Wagering on the puck line against Colorado isn’t a bad bet — a $140 stake wins $100. Opposed to the other games, however, the contest against Colorado presents a decent opportunity to wager on either the puck line or moneyline.

The decision on which one to select would ultimately come down to your risk tolerance.

How to bet on Flames totals

Aside from betting on the final result of a game, you can also wager on the number of goals scored in a game.

Game total lines are typically set at 5.5 or 6.5 goals, giving you the option to wager on whether the two teams will combine to go over or under the total.

Therefore, in a game against the Predators where the line is 6.5, a successful bet to the over requires the two sides to combine for six goals or more. A winning under wager needs both squads to team up for five goals or fewer.

Totals can also be presented as an over/under and O/U. All refer to the same market.

Additionally, betting on team totals is another option. Team totals are usually set at 2.5 or 3.5 goals and work similarly to game totals.

Instead of a combined total between two teams, you’ll wager on an individual team’s output.

For example, if Calgary’s team total is 2.5 goals and you believe it will score three or more goals, you’d take the over. You’d bet on the Flames under if you felt they would score two goals or fewer.

Totals are a great option for betting on a game, especially if you’re unsure of how the final will shake out.

How to bet on Flames props

Props, like totals, are another betting option that doesn’t deal with the outcome of the game. Prop bets can include wagering on which team will score the third goal of the game or whether the team that scores first will win.

Prop bets also centre around player performances, which is what we’ll focus on in this section.

A player prop can involve betting on whether a player will record a goal or assist, as well as the number of shots they’ll take in a contest.

For instance, if you believe Huberdeau will record an assist in the next Flames game, you could place a wager on his assist prop.

Huberdeau’s assist prop would look similar to this:

Huberdeau 0.5 assists: Over (-110), Under (-110).

Regardless of whether you bet on his over or under, a $110 wager wins $100 in this example. When looking to bet on Huberdeau’s assist prop, keep in mind both the odds and the opponent.

For any bet, the odds are important and there are some games that will provide a better opportunity to wager on a player prop.

Opponent goals allowed per game and scoring chances allowed per game are two key stats to monitor prior to placing your bet. The more goals and scoring chances an opponent allows likely means there will be more opportunities for Huberdeau to tally a helper.

Parlays and more

You can also wager on multiple events on one ticket, which is known as a parlay. A parlay could consist of a Flames puck line bet, in addition to picking two other NHL teams to win a game.

But you could also build a Flames-only version called a same-game parlay.

The issue with parlays is they significantly decrease your chances of winning with each event added, as just one loss on the ticket will result in the entire bet losing.

You get heightened odds for the increased risk you take on, leading to potential larger payouts. But it’s important to know that your chance of winning is largely lowered.

In an upcoming Oilers and Flames game, for instance, you may believe that Calgary will cover the puck line, that the contest will go over its game total and that Huberdeau will record an assist.

If you were to bet these three events individually, the odds would look something like this:

Flames puck line (+135)
Oilers/Flames over 6.5 goals (-110)
Huberdeau over 0.5 assists (-120)

The odds would look much different if you turned that into an SGP.

Flames puck line, Oilers/Flames over 5.5 goals, Huberdeau over 0.5 assists (+722).

The parlay would return a significantly larger payout than if you bet on each event individually. That’s due to the increased risk of having multiple events on it. Remember that if one leg loses, the whole ticket does as well.

But if you were to bet all three individually, the outcome of one event has no bearing on the result of another.

There are more ways to get in on Flames action through live betting and the futures market, where you can pick the Flames to win the Cup or Huberdeau to win the Hart Trophy.

How to bet on the Oilers: Connor McDavid props, totals and puck lines

There’s arguably no NHL team more exciting than the Edmonton Oilers.

The pure thrill of watching Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl has turned the squad into required viewing.

-> New to NHL wagering? Sign up at NorthStar Bets to get the latest odds, insights and betting tools throughout the season.

When getting ready to watch the next Oilers game, you may be looking to bet on the team but don’t know how to do so. Don’t sweat — we have you covered.

How to bet on the Oilers

There’s no shortage of options when it comes to betting on the Oilers. That’s especially true with McDavid and Draisaitl in the fold, as they make Edmonton a threat to go off every time they take the ice.

But there are a number of different factors you should focus on that may ultimately influence what you decide to bet on. Those include the opponent, location, trends, injuries and the odds.

We’ll explore some of the most popular betting markets and offer advice on how to place the best wagers.

-> Before you get started, create your NorthStar Bets account to explore live odds and daily NHL markets.

Moneyline

If you like Edmonton’s chances of winning its upcoming game, then a moneyline (ML) bet may be for you.

A moneyline wager involves backing the team that you think will win the hockey game. Regardless of the score or whether it goes to overtime or shootout, the team that wins the game wins the moneyline bet.

The team deemed as the underdog will be presented with a plus (+) symbol in front of its odds. You will see a minus (-) symbol for the favourite.

Edmonton’s status for any game will typically depend on its opponent and the location of the contest. The Oilers would likely be a heavy favourite in a home game against the Montreal Canadiens and a smaller favourite when hosting the Calgary Flames, for example.

In a road game against the Toronto Maple Leafs, however, the Oilers will find themselves labelled as an underdog.

-> Want to see current Oilers moneyline prices? Check the latest at NorthStar Bets

The odds for each of these contests would look something like this:

Senators (+240) vs. Oilers (-300)
Flames (+135) vs. Oilers (-155)
Oilers (+120) vs. Maple Leafs (-140)

Those odds tell us a few things, including who the favourite and underdog is. It also tells us what our sportsbook believes each of those teams’ chances of winning is in addition to how much you could profit on a successful bet.

Odds	Implied win probability	Wager amount	To win
-300	75%	$300	$100
-155	60.78%	$155	$100
+120	45.45%	$100	$120

In the first example, it likely isn’t wise to place a moneyline wager on the Oilers. Although the implied win probability sits at 75%, a $300 wager only returns $100.

This game would be a better opportunity to bet on the Oilers puck line, which we’ll explain in our next section.

Knowing when to back the Oilers on the moneyline vs. the puck line is important. Photo by Jason Franson/The Canadian Press.

It wouldn’t be a bad idea, however, to place a moneyline bet on Edmonton in the second and third examples. Against the Flames, it requires a $155 wager to return $100.

As for the Leafs game, you would get a nice ROI if Edmonton pulled off the upset.

Puck line

Let’s start off with the Canadiens example and outline why the puck line is a better bet than the moneyline for this game. It all comes down to value.

Unlike a moneyline bet, a puck line will have a designated point spread accompanied by the selection. Puck lines are typically set at 1.5 goals, though the lines can occasionally be 2.5 goals or more. As a result, the odds will be different from the moneyline.

Here’s how the puck line odds could look for the games we listed above:

Canadiens +1.5 (+105) vs. Oilers -1.5 (-125)
Flames +1.5 (-200) vs. Oilers -1.5 (+170)
Oilers +1.5 (-195) vs. Maple Leafs -1.5 (+175)

For the first listings, the -1.5 next to Edmonton signifies that the team is being stripped of a goal and a half. Against the Canadiens and Flames, the Oilers would have to win by two goals or more to cover the puck line.

In other words: If you backed Edmonton to win on the puck line and they were only victorious by one goal, you would lose the bet.

The +1.5 next to Edmonton, on the other hand, means the Oilers are getting a goal and a half. That means Edmonton could lose the game by a goal or win outright and it would cover the puck line.

The payout structures for a bet on the Oilers from those examples would look like this:

Odds	Implied win probability	Wager amount	To win
-125	55.56%	$125	$100
+170	37.04%	$100	$170
-195	66.10%	$195	$100

The Canadiens game presents the best opportunity to wager on the puck line over the moneyline. Although the implied win probability drops from 75% to 55.56%, the amount wagered drops from $300 to $125 in order to win $100.

Finding that difference in value is important when placing bets.

In the second example, however, we’d recommend a bet on the moneyline. Considering it is much more difficult to win a game by two goals than one (especially against a team nearly equal to Edmonton in skill like Calgary), the moneyline presents a higher implied win probability and a solid return.

In the Maple Leafs example, the moneyline is a much better option as it’s rare to get Edmonton at plus-money odds in that market.

-> Ready to try puck line betting? Join NorthStar Bets and explore live, moving lines daily

How to bet on Oilers totals

There are ways to bet on an Oilers game without wagering on the final result. You can bet on game totals, which involves wagering on the number of goals scored in a game.

Game total lines are typically set at 5.5 or 6.5 goals. You can bet on whether the two teams will combine for more or fewer goals than the specified total.

Let’s use the Oilers and Maple Leafs game as an example. If the total is set at 6.5 goals and you believe the two sides will combine for seven goals or more, you’d place a bet on the over.

You’d bet the under if you believed the squads were more likely to combine for six goals or fewer.

Totals can also be presented as over/under or O/U, but they all refer to the same market.

Team totals are another option available to bet on. Rather than betting on the combined total of goals, team totals involve wagering on just one side’s goal total.

These lines are usually set at 2.5 or 3.5 goals, and you’d have the option to select the over or under on how many goals you believe the Oilers will score.

-> Compare totals across every Oilers matchup when you sign up for NorthStar Bets

How to bet on Oilers props

Similar to game totals, props offer another way to bet on a game that doesn’t directly involve the final score. Prop bets can vary from betting on which team will win more periods to which team will score the first goal.

Prop bets also involve player performance, which is what we’ll explore here.

Popular player props include whether or not a player will record a goal or assist, as well as the number of shots they will take in a game.

For instance, you may believe McDavid is a good bet to score a goal in an upcoming Oilers game. When going to place your bet on McDavid to score a goal, typically there’ll be three options to choose from: first, last and anytime.

First refers to McDavid scoring the first goal of the game, last represents the last goal of the game and anytime means you are betting on him to score at any point during the contest.

The implied probability of McDavid scoring the first or last goal of the game is obviously lower as there is only one first and last goal, therefore the odds reflect that. The implied probability of him scoring at any point during the game is much higher, and that’s priced into his odds.

Here’s how McDavid’s goal odds could look:

+700 to score the first goal (12.50% implied win probability): A $100 bet would win $700.
+700 to score the last goal (12.50% implied win probability): A $100 bet would win $700.
+100 to score anytime (50.00% implied win probability): A $100 bet would win $100.

-> Check out the latest player props every day at NorthStar Bets – from betting goals, shots on goal and much more

-> Check out the latest player props every day at NorthStar Bets – from betting goals, shots on goal and much more

Parlays and more

When you make multiple bets on one ticket, that’s known as a parlay.

Your chances of winning drop significantly with each event added to the ticket. If one leg (another name for event) loses, the entire ticket is toast.

Going back to the Oilers and Maple Leafs game as an example, you may believe that Edmonton will cover the puck line, McDavid will score a goal and the contest will go over 6.5 goals. You could decide to bet on each event individually or you may be offered a pre-built special that combines the three.

You may also be able to build your own same-game parlay.

-> Build your own Oilers same-game parlay when you join NorthStar Bets

Here’s what it would look like to bet those three examples individually:

Oilers +1.5 (-195)
McDavid anytime goalscorer (+100)
Over 6.5 total goals (-110)

This is how it would change if you combined the three events:

Oilers +1.5, McDavid anytime goalscorer, over 6.5 total goals (+477).

The listed odds for this parlay example are +477, while the odds for each individual bet sit at a much lower number. A successful $100 bet on this parlay would generate a profit of $477.

That’s nearly four times greater than all of those individual events at the same $100 stake. Again, that’s because correctly predicting multiple events on the same ticket is more difficult than getting just one right and, as a result, lowers the win probability.

There are more ways to get in on Oilers action through live betting and the futures market, where you can pick Edmonton to win the Cup or McDavid to win the Hart Trophy.

-> Ready to put your Oilers knowledge to use ? Sign up for NorthStar Bets to access live odds, props, parlays and exclusive Canadian Insights all season long

Key NHL betting strategies you should know

Betting on hockey can be tricky for someone who doesn’t have experience with the sport. But identifying a few key NHL betting strategies can make a world of difference.

There are 32 teams, hundreds of players and an endless amount of possible betting combinations any day there’s action. A look at the NHL odds board on a busy Saturday night may feel overwhelming to those new to the space.

-> New to NHL wagering? Sign up at NorthStar Bets to get the latest odds, insights and betting tools throughout the season.

That’s why we’re here to help you avoid making rookie mistakes before placing your next hockey bet.

NHL betting strategies

There are several elements to consider before handing over your money for an NHL wager. And the market you intend to bet on will affect what type of research you should conduct.

We’ll review the most popular betting markets and share some important tips so you’re more prepared when considering what event to spend your money on.

-> Before you get started, create your NorthStar Bets account to explore live odds and daily NHL markets.

Moneyline and puck line strategies

Who’s the goalie?

We can’t stress this point enough, but a good — or hot — goaltender can make all the difference. Goalies steal games all the time, as every hockey fan can attest. Monitoring roster announcements and viewing recent goalie matchups is vitally important to a bet.

Despite every bettor wishing NHL teams disclosed starting goalie information hours in advance, most teams often don’t. Instead, head coaches keep this decision confidential until shortly before puck drop to create a competitive advantage.

Beat reporters typically tweet info gathered throughout the day, such as which goalie exited the morning skate first or who’s practicing in the starter’s net. This is often the best way to scope out the info.

*The New York Rangers are a significantly better team with Igor Shesterkin between the pipes. Photo by Frank Franklin II/AP.*

Knowing who the starting goalies are is must-know information. The difference in quality between a starting goalie and a third-stringer can be the difference in a team being labelled as a favourite or underdog.

-> Want to see current NHL moneyline prices? Check the latest at NorthStar Bets

Who’s playing?

Injuries impact the odds of all hockey games. When one or more top players are missing from a team, its chance of winning is negatively impacted, at least in theory.

For example, the Edmonton Oilers were 20-26-10 (.367 win percentage) without Connor McDavid through the end of the 2023-24 season, according to StatMuse. In the same span, the Oilers were 349-242-54 (.541).

If McDavid is slated to miss an upcoming game, betting against the Oilers could be a smart play.

What have you done for me lately?

The NHL schedule is compact, and teams don’t have much time between games to resolve issues. If a flaw is exposed or a team is struggling on special teams, those issues may persist for a string of games.

The Philadelphia Flyers provided an extreme example of this in January 2022. During a horrific 13-game losing streak that lasted nearly the full month, Philly was the only team to rank bottom-five in both power play and penalty kill percentage.

On the other hand, the Pittsburgh Penguins had a top-10 power play and penalty kill during a 10-game winning streak that same season.

Recent overall results are important to look at, but reviewing a club’s performance on special teams helps take things a step further. A particularly hot or cold power play or penalty kill could create an edge.

How to attack back-to-backs?

The schedule creates competitive advantages and disadvantages for NHL teams. In some cases, a team will play two games in as many nights, or three contests in four days. Fatigue may become a factor, which is usually incorporated into the odds.

A resource like the one provided by More Hockey Stats helps quantify the true disadvantage a team has playing in a back-to-back game.

Naturally, some teams handle the challenge better than others. Using this tool, you can determine when there’s a good opportunity to attack a team playing a game in consecutive nights.

NHL totals

Show me the goals

Totals don’t have to be complicated. Teams that typically score a lot of goals tend to go over, while teams that don’t allow or score a lot of goals tend to go under.

For example, the Colorado Avalanche, Florida Panthers and Minnesota Wild were three of the highest-scoring teams in the league in the 2021-22 season. It’s no coincidence that all three squads were among the top overs teams in the NHL, according to Scores and Odds.

NHL advanced strategies statd — *The Florida Panthers possess one of the most lethal offences in the NHL. Photo by Lynne Sladky/AP.*

When looking at under bets, it’s wise to target teams that don’t allow many goals.

The New York Rangers, Los Angeles Kings and Carolina Hurricanes own some of the lowest goals-against rates this season. Unsurprisingly, they were among the top unders teams in the NHL.

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NHL betting strategies for props

The streakier the better

Outside of the top goalscorers in the NHL, it’s hard to truly rely on anyone to score goals routinely. Sure, Auston Matthews and Nathan MacKinnon are going to score goals by the boatload, but how do you hit on players who have longer odds?

One thing to know about NHL players is that they tend to score in bunches. Take Kevin Fiala, for example. Of the winger’s first 20 goals in the 2021-22 season, eight came in a 10-game span from late December to the end of January.

What makes Fiala a great example to follow is his shooting percentage. Prior to that scoring outburst, the Swiss star had potted just four goals on an unsustainably low 4.3% shooting percentage, according to Hockey Reference.

When Fiala scored two goals against the Dallas Stars on Dec. 20, 2021, the games following that performance would’ve been the best time to start betting his goal prop.

Shooting percentages tend to hold fairly steady on a year-to-year basis, and a quick look at his career rate would’ve suggested a correction was coming. Entering the 2021-22 season, Fiala owned an 11.0% shooting percentage, which tells us that his 4.3% mark wasn’t destined to last much longer.

Knowing that goal scoring can be streaky and that shooting percentages don’t normally undergo mass fluctuations, it would’ve been wise to jump on Fiala’s goal props at the first sign of a breakthrough.

The Fiala example is applicable to other steady shooters who possess uncharacteristically low shooting percentages.

-> Check out the latest player props every day at NorthStar Bets – from betting goals, shots on goal and much more

-> Check out the latest player props every day at NorthStar Bets – from betting goals, shots on goal and much more

Who are you playing with?

When looking at assist or point props, target players who play alongside elite talents. One such example is Jonathan Drouin.

Although Drouin isn’t a bad player in his own right, he undoubtedly benefits from playing alongside MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen. Knowing that he skates next to two of the best players in the league, Drouin becomes a much more attractive bet on all his player props.

The best market to take advantage of Drouin’s position in the lineup is his points prop.

*Jonathan Drouin had a career-high 56 points in 2023-24, which was his first season skating alongside former QMJHL teammate Nathan MacKinnon. Photo by Stacy Bengs/AP.*

MacKinnon and Rantanen are sometimes listed with a line of 1.5 points, while Drouin is typically listed at 0.5 points. If you think MacKinnon or Rantanen will reach the stat sheet at least once, there’s a decent possibility their linemate will, too.

With this in mind, it may be wiser to take Drouin at his prop than MacKinnon or Rantanen considering the correlation between the pair’s production.

NHL live betting

Underdogs and overs

If you made a story of my life regarding NHL betting strategies, a good title would be, “Underdogs and Overs.” Aside from being the name of my biopic that’ll never be made, it’s a good mantra for live betting totals.

When betting overs, typically you want to back teams that feature high-powered offences. The issue that sometimes arises in their games, however, is their opponent can’t keep up. In these instances, sometimes you lose your bet because the final score is 4-1 or 5-1 when the total is 5.5 or 6.5 goals.

Live betting allows you to see how the game plays out in order to react to it in real time.

For example, let’s say the Panthers and their highly skilled offence are playing against the San Jose Sharks. The Sharks score the game’s only goal through the first 15 minutes, which bumps the total down from 6.5 to 5.5 goals.

Once this happens, bettors should look to back the over for two reasons.

A 5.5-goal line in a game involving Florida, one of the league’s highest-scoring teams, is great value. Additionally, San Jose’s early marker was a positive indicator to suggest it could score enough to push this game over.

The Panthers’ slow start shouldn’t deter bettors because they score a lot of goals. The Sharks are the less reliable side, but an early goal from them as underdogs is a great development for an over.

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NHL futures betting strategy

Think about divisions

Playoff seeding for the NHL is based on divisional ranking. The top seed in each division plays a wild-card team, while the second and third seeds square off in the quarterfinals.

This setup can be advantageous when placing a Stanley Cup futures bet.

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The Pacific Division was billed as the weakest at the beginning of the 2021-22 season. It lived up to that title, with the Calgary Flames emerging as runaway favourites from the bunch. The lack of elite competition in the Pacific actually made Calgary a value pick to win the Stanley Cup.

Sometimes, as many as four teams in a different division will have shorter odds than the leaders of a weak division.

But Calgary’s chances of advancing beyond the quarterfinals should be viewed as greater than any of the teams within a deeper division (as the Atlantic has been in recent years).

Despite the Flames’ lower implied probability of winning the Stanley Cup, they possess much more value on futures markets than the Lightning, Maple Leafs and Panthers.

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Maple Leafs futures odds: Toronto sits ninth in Stanley Cup odds for 2024-25

Internally, it’d be fair to assume the Toronto Maple Leafs futures odds still hold championship expectations for themselves. But that sentiment is waning a bit based on their current Stanley Cup line.

The latest: The Leafs have +1,600 odds to win it all in 2024-25, with eight teams situated ahead of them. On the brighter side, Auston Matthews’ futures markets suggest he’s in for another superstar season.

Check out the latest Maple Leafs futures odds for the 2024-25 NHL season.

Maple Leafs futures odds overview

Toronto lost a handful of recognizable names in free agency this year, which is always bound to happen. But with nine of last year’s top 10 scorers still on the roster (pending a possible Nicholas Robertson trade), the team is effectively running it back.

Go ahead and decide for yourself whether that’s a good thing.

Toronto topped the 100-point mark for the third consecutive season and qualified for its eighth consecutive postseason. But like all the playoff appearances before, the Leafs burned out quickly this past spring.

As long as the core of Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander and John Tavares are together, Toronto will continue fostering Stanley Cup-sized expectations.

It’s getting more and more difficult to envision the realization of that dream, though.

Maple Leafs futures odds: Stanley Cup

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Toronto entered the 2023-24 season with +1,000 odds to win the Cup, so clearly the sentiment surrounding this team has shifted a bit.

At +1,600, the Leafs’ championship odds equate to a 5.88% implied probability. Four of the eight teams ahead of them are Eastern Conference foes: reigning champion Florida Panthers (+1,100), New Jersey Devils (+1,100), Carolina Hurricanes (+1,150) and New York Rangers (+1,400).

For added context, consider that the odds for the frontrunner Edmonton Oilers (+800) are half as long as Toronto’s.

The Maple Leafs have had one playoff series win since 2004. As far as title odds are concerned, they haven’t earned the benefit of the doubt.

Maple Leafs Eastern Conference odds

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Given that Toronto is fifth on the Cup odds leaderboard among Eastern Conference teams, it makes sense that the Leafs have the fifth-shortest odds to win the East.

Last year, Toronto had +525 conference odds. That would be just a smidge longer than the odds for the Panthers and Devils this year, who are co-favourites at +500.

Toronto went 3-4-0 collectively against the Panthers and Devils last season.

Imagine how much different the Leafs’ odds might’ve looked in the 1960s when they hoisted the Cup four times. Mind you, there were only six teams back then. Toronto has never won a conference championship.

Atlantic Division odds

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Fresh off a Cup win, the Panthers are the unsurprising favourites to win the Atlantic. But the Maple Leafs are right behind them.

Toronto’s only division crown since 2000 came in the fluky all-Canadian division during the COVID-shortened season a few years ago.

Recently, the Leafs have spent more seasons chasing some combination of the Panthers, Boston Bruins and Tampa Bay Lightning. But the Bruins appear to be aging out of their competitive window and the Lightning just lost Steven Stamkos, so Toronto is a logical runner-up contender behind the Cats.

Auston Matthews’ futures odds

If you’ve read this far, just know we’re done with the doom and gloom portion of the article. This section is all about Matthews, who established himself as the world’s best active goalscorer last year by potting 69 goals in the regular season.

Rocket Richard Trophy odds

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Several NHLers had banner seasons last year, but none came close to matching Matthews in the goal department. He was 12 tallies clear of the next closest player, Sam Reinhart (57).

Matthews has now paced the NHL in goals in three of the past four seasons, averaging 61.5 goals per 82 games in that span.

Being a preseason odds-on favourite to lead the league in goals is high praise. A price like this doesn’t make for a very enticing futures wager, but it’s difficult to argue given Matthews’ stellar track record of filling the net.

Hart Trophy odds

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In practically any other season, Matthews’ 69 goals would’ve been enough of a trump card to net him the Hart Trophy.

But last year, a trio of players crested the 130-point mark and bumped Matthews down to fourth on the ballot.

If Matthews flirts with a 70-goal season again, what are the chances he’s washed out by a bunch of overachieving point-producers? Not great.

Dating back to 1996-97, there have only been four instances of a player tallying 130-plus points … and three of them happened to occur last year.

In other words, keep the goals coming, Matthews. If so, you’ll give yourself a solid chance to claim a second league MVP award.

Why the Auston Matthews negotiations were anything but traditional

The path to a new Auston Matthews contract was paved in a manner the Maple Leafs have been altogether unfamiliar with when dealing with core players during this epoch of the team.

Not only were negotiations smooth and harmonious, they remained entirely underground and featured a high level of trust on both sides of the bargaining table.

It’s no small thing that they concluded a full four weeks before Matthews and his teammates were officially due to report for training camp in Toronto, clearing the air of any clouds before they’d even had a chance to form.

That’s not traditionally how these things have played out here.

There’s also every reason to believe this particular contract will age in a manner that is favourable to the Leafs as they seek to keep their Stanley Cup window propped open. Consider that they saw the NHL’s salary-cap ceiling climb a mere $2-million across the five seasons on Matthews’s expiring deal and can expect a $4-million jump before this new contract even takes effect in July because the COVID debt is projected to be paid off in the coming year.

In practical terms, that means Matthews will account for a hair more than 15 percent of the available cap when his contract begins with the 2024-25 season – roughly equivalent to Nathan MacKinnon’s new deal in Colorado, and appropriately behind Connor McDavid’s 15.7 percent in Edmonton back in 2018.

It is not inconceivable that Matthews might see his cap charge fall to the 13 percent range before the end of his four-year extension should NHL revenues grow as forecasted, leaving the Leafs with more resources to devote to other aspects of the roster in the process.

With rosier economic times on the horizon for the industry, the former Hart Trophy winner and 60-goal scorer could reasonably have pushed for an AAV higher than the $ 13.25 million he received.

That’s essentially where the balance was struck in this round of discussions.

Matthews possessed all of the leverage a year out from potential unrestricted free agency and managed to protect his own interests by laying claim to the NHL’s new highest cap hit while also keeping open some career flexibility with an unprecedented four-year term. However, he could also find comfort in knowing that he wasn’t meaningfully impairing the team’s ability to compete for a championship in the process.

That was a must-have item for a player approaching his 26th birthday as he committed prime years to the organization that sacrificed an entire season to win the right to draft him first overall in 2016.

The obvious win on the Leafs end of the equation was that they secured the rights to Matthews through the 2027-28 season without completely breaking the bank to do so. That represented a strong outcome for Brad Treliving, new to the Leafs general manager’s job but no stranger to the nuances of negotiation, as he showed a steady hand during the summer while Matthews worked through his process with agent Judd Moldaver of Wasserman Hockey and other members of his small inner circle.

Sure, the Leafs would have preferred a five- or six-year term, but the four-year deal the sides landed on was one year longer than many in the industry were anticipating.

The fact they arrived there without any measurable tension or drama over the final outcome carries an intangible benefit as the team tries to build off winning a playoff round last spring.

Every year is a big year for a group still thirsting for a much bigger breakthrough, and removing any doubts about where Matthews fits into the equation is unquestionably a big positive as they seek to integrate a cast of new characters this fall.

Ultimately, Matthews proved to be a man of his word by committing the remainder of his 20s to Toronto, and that fact represents a strong statement to anyone still questioning where his heart rests.

It’s also a measure of progress for an organization that saw William Nylander miss two months of a season because of a contract standoff and had Mitch Marner arrive a couple of days late for a training camp. Even Matthews’s last negotiation took until February to wrap up after a bid to get things done during training camp fell short.

This time around there was not even a hair out of place as Matthews signed his third contract with the Leafs.

A unique contract befitting a unique player.

Maple Leafs extend Auston Matthews with record-setting 4-year deal

TORONTO – With the stroke of a pen Auston Matthews became the NHL’s highest-paid player and secured something money can’t buy.

The chance to go down as the greatest player in Toronto Maple Leafs history.

By agreeing to a four-year extension carrying a $13.25-million cap hit on Wednesday, Matthews guaranteed himself at least five more seasons in a Maple Leafs sweater.

Assuming reasonably good health, that should be more than enough time to score the 122 goals needed to surpass Mats Sundin’s franchise record of 420. It even leaves him within reach of the 446 points he’d require to pass Sundin’s total of 987 – although Matthews will have to outpace long-time teammate Mitch Marner in order to get there first.

This is the third NHL contract signed by Matthews and it commits the remainder of his 20s to Toronto.

I feel fortunate to continue this journey as a Maple Leaf in front of the best fans in hockey! I will do everything I can to help get us to the top of the mountain. GLG! #LeafsForever
— Auston Matthews (@AM34) August 23, 2023

He’s both grown up and grown extremely comfortable in his only NHL home, removing any possible doubt about his intentions at season’s end when he publicly declared his desire to complete a new contract.

What drives him more than anything is trying to bring an elusive Stanley Cup to the NHL’s longest-suffering fanbase. It’s been an unexpectedly rough ride on that front, with just one second-round appearance from his seven playoff seasons, and to some degree Matthews’ eventual legacy will be tied to whether he and the Leafs other stars can eventually get over the hump.

From a business perspective, there was still never any doubt that Matthews would surpass Nathan MacKinnon’s league-leading $12.6-million AAV when he signed this extension. The only question was how many seasons it would cover and how close to the July 1 window he could be compelled to agree to it by new Leafs general manager Brad Treliving.

While it falls well short of the maximum allowable eight-year term permitted on NHL contracts, that comes with benefits for both the team and player.

Most notably it kept the cap hit significantly lower than some had been predicting – leaving Treliving with more space to build out the Leafs roster around No. 34 in the coming seasons. It also protects some long-term upside for Matthews with the salary cap due to finally start climbing again in 2024, not to mention the new collective bargaining agreement set to be negotiated by the NHL and NHLPA in 2026.

In the meantime, it will keep one of the NHL’s brightest stars under the spotlight at Scotiabank Arena.

There has never been another player in the 100-plus year history of the Leafs quite like Matthews: An Arizona-raised first overall draft pick who has outscored all of his peers since the day he stepped foot in the NHL.

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After a record-setting four-goal debut in Ottawa, he’s done nothing but accumulate accolades and hardware.

In 2017 Matthews became the first player from the organization to take home the Calder Trophy as rookie of the year since Brit Selby in 1966.

In 2021 he claimed the first of two consecutive Rocket Richard Trophies as the NHL’s top goal-scorer.

And then in 2022 he became the first Leafs player in history to score 60 goals, the first Leafs player ever to take home the Ted Lindsay Award as the players’ MVP choice and the first Leafs player since Ted Kennedy in 1955 to win the Hart Trophy.

New contract in hand through 2027-28, Matthews will get a real crack at adding even more to that impressive legacy while still trying to be among the first Leafs players to lift the Stanley Cup since 1967.