Category: NHL

The Toronto Maple Leafs welcome the Los Angeles Kings to Scotiabank Arena tonight.

The pregame narrative: Toronto hasn’t played since Saturday while Los Angeles is in the middle of a seven-game road trip to open the season. This has the recipe for a blowout and I expect Auston Matthews to net his first of the year.

Check out our Kings vs. Maple Leafs picks for the game on Oct. 16.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Kings

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Best bet: Maple Leafs to win in regulation (-106)

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Can I ask what Los Angeles did to upset the schedule makers this year?

The Kings started their season in Buffalo last Thursday and won’t be back at Crypto.com Arena until Oct. 24. They take on the Leafs tonight and fly to Montreal for a match with the Canadiens tomorrow.

Starting with that many games on the road is a mental grind and L.A.’s last game was sloppy. The Kings lost an 8-7 overtime barn-burner to the Ottawa Senators on Monday where they allowed 41 shots on goal.

Darcy Kuemper started that game — and both games prior — and he’s expected again this evening. His 3.59 GAA and .889 SV% rank 35th and 31st, respectively, among all NHL goaltenders.

And it’s not like last year’s numbers were much better in 33 starts with the Washington Capitals (3.31 GAA, .890 SV%).

Toronto turns to Anthony Stolarz, who owns a 1.54 GAA and .940 SV% through two starts.

The Leafs have won back-to-back games by two-plus goals without Matthews scoring and are 0-for-9 on the power play. This feels like a game where Toronto runs roughshod.

Key stat: The Los Angeles Kings have allowed the fourth-most chances per 60 minutes (68.8), per Natural Stat Trick.

Quick pick

Matthews to score (-130): Sooner or later, the floodgates will open for Toronto’s newly-named captain … why not tonight?

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Matthews has been snakebitten through three games but it’s not for lack of trying. He recorded eight shots in Saturday’s win over the Pittsburgh Penguins and six shots in Toronto’s season-opening loss to the Montreal Canadiens, hitting the post in both games.

For what it’s worth, Matthews leads all Maple Leafs in expected goals (1.84) and scoring chances (19) this season.

He scored a league-best 69 goals last year and has won the Rocket Richard in three of the last four seasons.

Backing a player to score with that resume at -130 is palatable, especially with the way Los Angeles is defending.

Picks made at 10:34 a.m. on 10/16/24

From Tuesday’s loaded nine-game NHL slate, I’m targeting a pair of prop bets.

The pregame narrative: The New Jersey Devils are rolling but Jack Hughes isn’t. I’m fading his shot total against the Florida Panthers. Elsewhere, backing Leon Draisaitl and Connor Bedard to both record a point comes out to even money.

Find these NHL prop picks for Oct. 15 below.

NHL prop picks

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Best Bet: Hughes under 3.5 shots (-136)

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Hughes is one of the league’s best players but this is asking a lot.

The Hurricanes are a defensively sound team with a massive rest advantage. Carolina has only played one game this season and it was last Friday. New Jersey, meanwhile, is playing its sixth game and third in four nights.

Hats off to the schedule makers for that one.

Hughes hasn’t scored yet and is 1-4 against this line, logging only two shots in three of five games. He ranks eighth among all Devils players in 5v5 chances per 60 minutes (12.31), according to Natural Stat Trick.

Let’s get back to Carolina for a second. On a per-60 basis, the Hurricanes gave up the fewest even-strength shots (25.28) and chances (48.49) last year.

In their 4-1 season-opening loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Canes only allowed 23 shots. Nikita Kucherov (six SOG) was the only opposing player who cleared this line.

Key stat: Hughes is averaging 3.0 shots per game this year.

Quick picks

Parlay: Draisaitl and Bedard 1+ point each (+100): The Edmonton Oilers have a Stanley Cup hangover sans the Stanley Cup. They’re 0-3 through three games with just three total goals.

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But I expect them to break out of this funk sooner than later and Draisaitl getting involved would be a good place to start.

The superstar forward inked an eight-year, $112-million contract with Edmonton this offseason, which will make him the highest-paid player in the league next season.

He definitely deserves that kind of money. Draisaitl has put up 100-plus points in five of the last six seasons with the exception being an 84-point campaign in the 2020-21 COVID-shortened season. He played at a 127-point pace that year.

As for Bedard, the 2023 No. 1 pick is well on his way to securing a bag of his own.

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He won the Calder Trophy last season with 61 points in 68 games. He’s off to a red-hot start this year with five points in three games, most recently netting a goal and two assists against the Oilers.

His Chicago Blackhawks take on the Calgary Flames, which should be a tasty matchup.

Calgary doesn’t have a top goaltender after trading Jacob Markstrom to the Devils. Dustin Wolf is in net tonight and he had a 3.16 GAA and 0.893 SV% last year.

Picks made at 12:12 p.m. ET on 10/15/2024.

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Three NHL games start at 1:00 p.m. ET on this holiday Monday, but I’m looking toward the late slate for today’s prop bets.

The pregame narrative: The Colorado Avalanche host the New York Islanders with each team searching for its first win. I’m fading Matthew Barzal and am backing Nathan MacKinnon. Elsewhere, bet on Cole Caufield against the Pittsburgh Penguins.

Find these NHL prop picks for Oct. 14 below.

NHL prop picks

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Best Bet: Barzal under 2.5 shots (-114)

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On a surface level, fading a player going up against the Avalanche might seem silly.

Colorado has given up 14 goals across its first two games, losing 8-4 and 6-4 to the Vegas Golden Knights and Columbus Blue Jackets, respectively.

But you can pin that almost entirely on poor goaltending.

Vegas had just 21 shots in the season opener and Columbus had 23 shots three nights later. Needless to say, the Avs rank dead last in team save percentage (.714%).

This isn’t a play against Barzal scoring a point. It’s a play against his ability to put pucks on the net.

Colorado has given up the second-fewest chances per 60 (44.95) and the fifth-fewest shots per 60 (23.1) at 5v5, per Natural Stat Trick.

The New York Islanders are also winless and Barzal has logged just two shots across as many games. He averaged exactly 3.0 shots per game last season but I’ll still fade him in this spot.

Key stat: Barzal has gone under this mark in 16 of his last 25 regular season games.

Quick picks

MacKinnon to score (-122): MacKinnon had a point in 39 of 41 home games last year, logging 34 goals and 55 assists in those contests.

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He’s started hot again, racking up two assists in Colorado’s opener and a goal and an assist the game after that.

I was tempted to back MacKinnon to log multiple points at -157. But I can’t get down with that price tag, even with how efficient he’s been at altitude.

Taking him to score seems like the better play. The Islanders have allowed eight goals in two games, which isn’t a good sign considering how bad their defence was last season. New York gave up the fourth-most even-strength chances per 60 in 2023-24.

Caufield over 3.5 shots (-118): Could this be Caufield’s breakout year? Through three games it certainly looks like it.

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The Montreal Canadiens winger has scored in every game with four total goals. He’s only cleared this line once but has had at least three shots in each contest.

Tonight, he goes up against a Penguins team that has given up 13 goals in three games. Pittsburgh is allowing an average of 35 shots per 60 minutes, the second-most in the NHL.

Picks made at 9:07 a.m. ET on 10/14/2024.

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Connor McDavid headlines Sunday’s NHL prop bets.

The pregame narrative: The Edmonton Oilers are 0-2 and take on the Calgary Flames in the Battle of Alberta. I expect McDavid to break out of his funk and am also backing Ivan Barbashev to record a point for the Vegas Golden Knights.

Find these NHL prop picks for Oct. 13 below.

NHL prop picks

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Best Bet: McDavid over 1.5 points (-127)

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Can you have a Stanley Cup hangover without actually winning the Cup? With the way the Oilers have played it looks like it.

Edmonton got blanked 6-0 by the Winnipeg Jets in their opener before losing 5-2 to the Chicago Blackhawks last night. Both games were at home and McDavid was held pointless through five periods before registering a garbage-time assist.

There are two ways to look at this: The Oilers are suddenly a bad hockey team, or they will snap out of it.

I’ll go with the latter. McDavid is the best player on Earth and should be rearing for an opportunity to get right against his biggest rival.

The Flames aren’t projected as a playoff team and gave up 40 shots to the Philadelphia Flyers last night in a 6-3 win. Dustin Wolf was between the pipes on Saturday, which means Dan Vladar will get the call for Calgary today.

The 27-year-old was sieve-like last season, posting a 3.62 GAA and 0.882 save percentage in 20 starts. He allowed five goals on 24 shots in Calgary’s season-opener against the Vancouver Canucks.

His line with Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins generated 64.29% of 5v5 chances last night, per Natural Stat Trick. Things didn’t break their way but that shouldn’t last long.

McDavid finished with 132 points in 76 games last season and won the Art Ross Trophy three straight years prior.

Key stat: Dating back to last season, McDavid has registered 2+ points in 12 of his last 18 regular season games.

Quick picks

Barbashev to record a point (-103): I’m shocked to see this line sitting at basically even money.

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The Golden Knights are off to a 2-0 start and Barbashev has three goals and three assists in those games. He leads the team in high-danger chances (five) and sits second to only his linemate, Jack Eichel, in total chances (nine).

Eichel, for reference, is -375 to record a point.

The Golden Knights haven’t played since Friday and welcome in the Anaheim Ducks, who are playing the second leg of a back-to-back.

Anaheim allowed the third-most goals per game (3.57) last seaosn.

Picks made at 9:38 a.m. ET on 10/13/2024.

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I’m backing three players from Friday’s four-game slate for these NHL prop picks.

The pregame narrative: Tomas Hertl embarks on his first full season with the Vegas Golden Knights and is a nice pick to record a point tonight. Elsewhere, fade Jake Guentzel and Taylor Hall against good defensive teams.

Find these NHL prop picks for Oct. 11 below.

NHL prop picks

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Best Bet: Hertl to record a point (-125)

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Hertl’s 2023-24 season was seemingly going to be a wash until Vegas traded for the San Jose Shark at the deadline and activated him from LTIR right before the playoffs.

The centre was largely ineffective in the postseason (one point in seven games) but did register a point in four of his six regular season games with the Golden Knights.

Now that he’s had a full offseason, I expect Hertl to return to elite form.

In his last five full seasons with San Jose he registered 280 points in 336 games (0.83/game). This year, he slots in as Vegas’ second-line centre and starts on the team’s first power-play unit.

Hertl recorded an assist in Vegas’ 8-4 blowout of the Colorado Avalanche on Wednesday.

The Golden Knights welcome the St. Louis Blues to town, who are playing their third game in four nights and are on a back-to-back, wrapping up a season-opening West Coast road trip.

Key stat: Hertl had a point in 28 of 54 games last year (51.8%).

Quick picks

Hall to not record a point (-122): Long gone are the days of Hall being an elite player.

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The 2018 Hart Trophy winner played just 10 games for the Chicago Blackhawks last season and logged four points. He’s on the wrong side of 30 and isn’t playing with Connor Bedard or on the first power-play unit.

The Blackhawks had one of the worst offences in the NHL last year and are going up against Connor Hellebuyck and the Jets in Winnipeg tonight.

Hellebuyck, fresh off a Vezina award, shut out the Edmonton Oilers in his first start of the season.

Guentzel to not record a point (+185): Guentzel has big shoes to fill with Steven Stamkos out the door.

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The former Pittsburgh Penguin went pointless in the preseason and has been dealing with an injury that kept him out of practices earlier this week. He’s labelled as day-to-day but was practicing with the Tampa Bay Lightning yesterday.

Assuming he plays, I believe this is a good spot to fade him at plus money.

The Bolts open their season against the Carolina Hurricanes in Raleigh and that’s not a cupcake opponent. Carolina was tied for the fewest goals allowed per game at home last season (2.41), per StatMuse.

Picks made at 9:52 a.m. ET on 10/11/2024.

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