Category: NHL

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers meet on Tuesday night for the first time this season, with both teams needing a win.

The pregame narrative: Toronto and Florida sit 16th and 15th in the Eastern Conference entering play on Dec. 2. Both teams are only six points out of a playoff spot, though, meaning there’s plenty of time to turn things around. The Panthers are slight home favourites after dropping their last two games.

Check out my Maple Leafs vs. Panthers SGP predictions on Dec. 2, featuring Matthew Knies and Sam Bennett.

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Maple Leafs vs. Panthers SGP

Parlay: Panthers ML | Bennett 1+ points | Knies 1+ points (+370)

Panthers moneyline (-157): Florida has proven that it can beat Toronto when it matters.

The Panthers eliminated the Leafs from the playoffs last season en route to a second consecutive Stanley Cup title. And two years prior, they beat Toronto in five games.

This isn’t the playoffs, but both teams will be playing with an air of desperation. I trust Florida to get the job done at home even without Matthew Tkachuk and Alexander Barkov.

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Why? Simply put, the Panthers are playing much better hockey.

Corsi rate (an advanced statistic provided by Natural Stat Trick, which measures shot attempt differential) tells the story:

• Florida: 3rd in Corsi rate (53.53%)
• Toronto: 31st in Corsi rate (45.64%)

Toronto did beat the Pittsburgh Penguins 7-2 on the weekend … while being outshot 35-23. That was a somewhat lucky result, and it marked the Leafs’ first regulation win in 11 games.

Florida should win comfortably tonight.

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Other NHL predictions

Bennett to score 1+ points (-113): Bennett is built for the postseason, and has a Conn Smythe trophy to prove it, but he’s on a nice little run right now.

He had just five points through the first 18 games of the season. Since then, he’s logged seven points and is 5-1 against this line.

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Playing Toronto in its current form means every player will have opportunities to generate chances.

Bennett centres Florida’s third line with Carter Verhaeghe and A.J. Greer. That trio has been rolling lately, generating a 59.54% Corsi rate together at 5-on-5.

Knies to score 1+ points (-157): Knies has been a bright spot on the Maple Leafs, logging 26 points in 22 games.

He registered two assists on Saturday and is now 11-3 against this line in his last 14 games. In that span, he has 17 points and four goals.

Knies is riding shotgun with Auston Matthews, who is still producing at a solid clip despite an injury absence.

The captain had five goals and nine points in November (nine games), and is -235 to find the stat sheet tonight.

Knies and Matthews both play on the top line and PP1, making the former a better value play in my eyes.

Maple Leafs vs. Panthers SGP made at 10:30 a.m. ET on Dec. 2, 2025.

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A busy night from the NHL presents an 11-game slate with plenty of goal-scoring options.

The NHL goal picks pregame narrative: Morgan Geekie continues to score at an elite rate, and he’s an excellent pick to deliver on Saturday. Kevin Fiala and Mark Scheifele are generating plenty of offence, making both great selections to score.

Check out my NHL goal picks for Nov. 29.

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NHL goal picks Nov. 29

Best Bet: Geekie to score (+150)

It’s hard to ignore a goalscorer like Geekie at this price.

Bettors just have to assume that the forward’s breakout is for real. Geekie ranks among the NHL’s finest in several key markers:

• 2nd in goals (18)
• 1st in even-strength goals (14)

Geekie has 43 goals this calendar year, which is the most of anyone in 2025.

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He and the Boston Bruins stare down a juicy matchup against the Detroit Red Wings.

Detroit can’t keep the puck out of its own net. The Red Wings are 26th in goals against per game (3.44).

Their woes are largely due to terrible goaltending. Detroit ranks a brutal 30th in team save percentage (.871).

Geekie should take advantage of a plus matchup and deliver a goal on Saturday.

Key stat: Geekie has scored a goal in four of his last five games (six total).

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NHL predictions

Scheifele to score (+143): Scheifele didn’t make Team Canada at the 4 Nations Face-Off.

He seems determined to make the Olympic squad.

After finishing 17th in points a season ago, he’s tied for 10th this year (30).

Scheifele has 117 points since the start of the 2024-25 campaign, placing him fifth among all Canadian skaters.

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A large chunk of his production has come via lamp-lighters. Scheifele’s 52 goals in this time are tied with Sam Reinhart for first among Canadians.

His Winnipeg Jets square off with a defensively-challenged Nashville Predators squad. Nashville is tied for 30th in goals against per game (3.63) and is 31st in team save percentage (.868).

Scheifele enters this contest with goals in back-to-back games.

Fiala to score (+135): Lastly, I’m betting on a goal from Fiala.

The Los Angeles Kings forward isn’t scoring at the rate of the other players on this list, but he still has a respectable 10 goals through 24 games.

Fiala’s high shot volume makes him a compelling goalscorer candidate on most nights. His 23 shots are inside the top 25 in the category, and he’s 27th in Corsi for (145).

Somebody who directs this much rubber towards the net is a good pick to score, especially on a night like tonight.

Los Angeles hosts the Vancouver Canucks, who are the ultimate opponent for goal props.

Vancouver is tied for 32nd in goals allowed per game (3.72). Additionally, the team is allowing the most high-danger chances per 60 this season (14.3).

Fiala and the Kings will get chances to strike, and I’ll happily back the winger to be at the forefront of the offensive attack.

NHL goal picks made at 12:52 p.m. ET on Nov. 29, 2025.

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The floundering Toronto Maple Leafs pay the Pittsburgh Penguins a visit on Saturday night.

The pregame narrative: Father Time will have to wait another year before it claims the career of Sidney Crosby. The Pittsburgh forward continues to produce and is a great pick to beat his shot prop. On the other side, a pair of Leafs are great fade candidates in a tough matchup.

Check out my Maple Leafs vs. Penguins prop picks for the game on Nov. 29, featuring Morgan Rielly and Easton Cowan.

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Maple Leafs vs. Penguins prop picks

Best Bet: Crosby over 2.5 shots (+100)

I’m a big fan of this pick tonight for several reasons.

Firstly, Crosby continues to defy the natural aging curve of most NHL players. The 38-year-old superstar has 15 goals and 25 points in 23 games this season.

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Crosby is second on the Penguins in shots this year with 53, and he’s still the focal point of Pittsburgh’s offensive attack.

The offence shouldn’t meet much resistance against a Maple Leafs team that’s been all sorts of bad in their own zone.

Defensively, Toronto ranks poorly in some of the most important defensive categories:

• 31st in shots per game (31.3)
• 29th in goals per game (3.63)
• 27th in scoring chances per 60 (30.2)

Simply put, the Maple Leafs look like the Washington Generals on most nights in their own end. I’m happy to back Crosby in a ripe matchup.

Key stat: Crosby has topped this total in three of his last four games.

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Best NHL prop picks

Rielly to not score 1+ points (-110): Rielly is having a great offensive year. But tonight doesn’t profile as a great night for production.

The Toronto blue-liner has 18 points in 23 games, but he’s been pointless in two of his last four outings.

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Additionally, the Penguins have been a surprisingly stingy defensive side this season:

• 4th in goals per game (2.61)
• T-4th in penalty kill rate (85.7%)
• 4th in team save percentage (.909)

This is bad news for the Maple Leafs, who haven’t scored more than two regulation goals in six consecutive outings.

Cowan to not score 1+ points (-121): It’s been a sporadic season for Cowan offensively.

The young forward has seven points through 16 games this season, but the production has been waning lately.

The winger is pointless in six of his last 10 contests.

Pittsburgh’s defence has been especially stingy lately, holding opponents to 2.5 goals per game in its last eight outings.

Maple Leafs vs. Penguins prop picks made at 10:34 a.m. ET on Nov. 29, 2025.

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The Washington Capitals host the Toronto Maple Leafs for a 5:00 p.m. ET start on Black Friday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto got back in the win column during Auston Matthews’ return on Wednesday, but still sits near the bottom of the Eastern Conference. Washington has been hot, winning five of its last six games, and is favoured to keep things rolling at home.

Check out my Maple Leafs vs. Capitals prop picks for the game on Nov. 28, featuring Alex Ovechkin and John Carlson.

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Maple Leafs vs. Capitals prop picks

Best Bet: Carlson to score a point (-106)

I want no part of the Maple Leafs tonight, and put little stock into Wednesday’s 2-1 victory.

Toronto has still lost seven of its last nine games while giving up 3.67 goals per game. And it would’ve lost to the Columbus Blue Jackets, too, if Joseph Woll hadn’t turned away 35 of 36 shots faced.

Expecting a repeat performance out of the young netminder is unreasonable.

The Maple Leafs give up the fifth-most chances (63.29) and second-most shots (30.79) on a 60-minute basis, per Natural Stat Trick.

Their defence is sieve-like, and now they’re catching a Capitals team heating up heading into the holidays.

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Washington is averaging 5.4 goals in its last five games, and Carlson has been at the forefront of that production. The defenceman has eight points in that stretch and is 4-1 against this line.

Carlson plays top-pairing minutes and isn’t afraid to shoot the puck. That means he can find the stat sheet with a tip-in or a teammate burying his rebound.

Key stat: Carlson is 9-2 against this line in his last 11 games.

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Best NHL prop picks

Ovechkin to score (+125): In a perfect world, Carlson slides one over to Ovechkin, and the Great 8 puts it under the bar. We’ve seen it happen over 100 times, so why not tonight?

Ovechkin is the greatest goalscorer ever, and he hasn’t lost his touch after de-throning Wayne Gretzky.

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He’s scored seven goals in his last seven games, putting a slow start to the season in the rearview. In that stretch, Ovi leads Washington in scoring chances (19), is second in xG (3.01) and third in shots (17), per Natural Stat Trick.

Toronto is giving up the most goals per game in the Eastern Conference (3.61), so this is a Grade-A matchup for him to stay hot.

Maple Leafs vs. Capitals prop picks made at 11:15 a.m. ET on Nov. 28, 2025.

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