Category: NHL

The Toronto Maple Leafs aim to earn an important two points against an inferior Pittsburgh Penguins squad on Sunday.

The pregame narrative: Pittsburgh is playing its second game in as many days, which gives Toronto an advantage in a game where it’s already the better team. I’m expecting Auston Matthews to pepper the Penguins with shots, and I like Matthew Knies to find the score sheet.

Check out my Maple Leafs prop picks vs. the Penguins for March 2.

Maple Leafs prop picks vs. Penguins

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Best Bet: Matthews over 3.5 shots (-125)

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This is a very fair number to back Matthews at on most nights.

Toronto’s captain is also its top shooter. He leads the team in shots per game (3.93) and owns one of the most lethal shots in the NHL.

He’s operating with a shooter’s mindset ahead of this contest, too, registering 50 shots in his last 12 games (4.17).

The matchup is juicier than a cookout hamburger, as Matthews and the Maple Leafs battle a Pittsburgh team struggling all over the ice this season.

The Penguins are allowing the fifth-most shots per game (30.2) and are battling a rest disadvantage after losing to the Boston Bruins on Saturday.

Matthews has dominated the Penguins in two contests this season. He totalled four and eight shots, respectively, in his two dates with Pittsburgh.

Bet on Matthews to top this prop for the third time against the Pens this season.

Key stat: Matthews has recorded four-plus shots in eight of his last 12 games.

Quick pick

Knies to score 1+ points (-118): There are plenty of reasons to like this prop.

For starters, his recent form is encouraging. Knies has a point in seven of his past 11 games — including back-to-back — while averaging a healthy 18:03 in ice time.

Secondly, his deployment inside Toronto’s lineup is mouthwatering. Knies skates on the team’s first line alongside Matthews and Mitch Marner while also serving on the squad’s top power-play unit.

Playing consistent minutes with Toronto’s top talents is a huge positive for Knies’ production.

It helps that he’s staring down a date with a Pens squad that has been absolutely dreadful in their own zone. Pittsburgh is ceding the second-most goals per game (3.58) and has the second-worst save percentage in the league (.882).

Bet on a point from Knies in a plus matchup.

Picks made at 10:22 a.m. ET 03/02/2025.

The red-hot Toronto Maple Leafs head to New York to battle the Rangers on Friday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto’s offence has been humming since the league returned to action following the 4 Nations Face-Off. I’m looking at Auston Matthews and Morgan Rielly to capitalize against a struggling Rangers squad.

Check out my Maple Leafs prop picks vs. the Rangers for Feb. 28.

Maple Leafs prop picks vs. Rangers

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Best bet: Matthews over 3.5 shots (-130)

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Matthews has been snake-bitten this month, scoring just one goal — on an empty net — across seven NHL games while going goalless in the 4 Nations Face-Off.

But it hasn’t been for lack of trying.

• Matthews has logged 4+ shots in 5 of 7 NHL games this month.
  
• He had four shots against Canada in the 4 Nations Final.

Toronto’s captain has cleared this line in consecutive games and was flying around during the third period and overtime against the Boston Bruins, hitting the crossbar late and providing the game-winning assist to Mitch Marner.

With Igor Shesterkin struggling (more on that later), tonight seems like a good spot for him to get off the schneid. But I’ll opt for the over on his shot total just to be safe.

The Rangers have been a horrible defensive team all season, giving up the fourth-most shots (30.41) and sixth-most chances (62.04) on a 60-minute basis, according to Natural Stat Trick.

Key stat: Matthews recorded a season-high nine shots in his lone meeting with the Rangers this season.

Quick picks

Rielly to record a point (+123): Rielly is coming off his best game of the season, factoring into each of Toronto’s four goals against the Bruins with a goal and three assists.

He’s registered a point in five of seven games this month and has a great opportunity to stay hot.

New York gives up plenty of chances and Shesterkin has been a mess lately. The Vezina-winning netminder has allowed 28 goals with an .865 save percentage across his last eight starts.

Rielly leads all Toronto skaters in ice time and should log even more minutes with Chris Tanev sidelined on Friday.

Picks made at 11:29 a.m. ET 02/28/2025.

I’ve got two goalscorer bets from Thursday’s NHL slate.

The pregame narrative: Alexander Ovechkin is barrelling toward Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goal scoring record and I expect him to get one notch closer tonight. After that, look for Tomas Hertl to provide offence for the Vegas Golden Knights.

Check out my NHL anytime goal picks for Feb. 27.

NHL anytime goal picks

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Best Bet: Ovechkin to score (+110)

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What can I say about Ovechkin that hasn’t been said?

The soon-to-be NHL recordholder has been scoring at will in his 20th season and is now 12 markets shy of passing Gretzky, who sits at 894 goals.

• Ovechkin has 30 goals in 42 games this season (0.71 goals per game).
  
• He missed 12 games with a broken fibula but has scored 15 goals in 24 games since returning on Dec. 28 (0.62 goal per game clip).
  
• Ovechkin’s 3.79 shots per game ranks fifth in the NHL.

He has turned up the heat lately, scoring eight goals in as many games and clearing this line six times.

Ovechkin ripped home a hat trick on nine shots against the Edmonton Oilers on Sunday and followed that up with a goal on five shots against the Calgary Flames on Tuesday.

Washington’s captain is firing on all cylinders and Thursday’s opponent, the St. Louis Blues, are ripe for the taking.

Joel Hofer is in net over Jordan Binnington, and the 24-year-old hasn’t been great this season. He has a 2.88 GAA to pair with a .903 SV% and has allowed 14 goals in his last four starts.

Key stat: Ovechkin scored twice against the Blues on Nov. 9.

Top picks to score

Hertl anytime goalscorer (+180): Bettors should be looking to fade the Chicago Blackhawks any time they take the ice. That’s what I’m doing tonight by backing Hertl to score.

The Blackhawks rank near the bottom of the NHL in almost every defensive category on a 60-minute basis, per Natural Stat Trick:

• 3.44 goals (30th)
• 31.5 shots (30th)
• 63.2 chances (30th)
• 12.8 high-danger chances (30th)

Hertl is playing on Vegas’ top line and power-play unit and has 10 goals in his last 14 games. He’s registered at least three shots in five of his last six games and should have plenty of chances to bury one tonight.

Picks made at 2:46 p.m. ET on 02/27/2025.