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Maple Leafs prop picks vs. Rangers March 20: Back Auston Matthews to stay hot

The Toronto Maple Leafs head to the Big Apple for a game against the middling New York Rangers.

The pregame narrative: Auston Matthews is finding his scoring touch at the right time as the NHL playoffs approach. I’m backing the Leafs’ captain to pot another goal on Thursday and former captain John Tavares to find his way onto the scoresheet.

Check out my Maple Leafs prop picks vs. Rangers for March 20.

Maple Leafs prop picks vs. Rangers

Best Bet: Matthews to score (-105)

There’s no chance Matthews will match his 69-goal production from last season, but the centreman is shaping into form at the right time of the season.

He has scored in three consecutive games.

He has points in 11/13 games since the midseason break.

He had 7 goals and 8 assists during that span.

And this is the matchup to stay hot in. In their first nine games of the season, the Rangers looked primed to repeat as Presidents’ Trophy winners. They allowed just 21 goals in those contests (2.33/game).

When the calendar flipped to November, the wheels started to fall off. In the 60 games since, New York has allowed 3.08 goals per game. That would rank in the bottom 10 of the NHL over the full season.

The side also allows the fifth-most shots against per game (30.0), and that’s exactly what I want to see when backing Matthews.

Key stat: Matthews takes the fourth most shots per game (4.06) and has points in five straight games vs. the Rangers, including five goals.

Quick pick

Tavares to record 1+ points (-130): Tavares continues to reclaim the hearts of Leafs fans with a bounce-back season.

After notching 65 points in 80 games in 2023-24, most expected another decline from the 34-year-old vet.

But that hasn’t been the case as Tavares is producing at a near-point-per-game pace with 57 in 61 games.

He’s been wildly consistent as well, recording at least a point in 41 of 61 games played (67.2% hit rate). Considering these odds have an implied probability of 57.3%, I’d say this pick has strong value.

Tavares will continue to benefit from playing with Toronto’s top forwards and I like his prospects of getting on the scoresheet against a vulnerable Rangers team.

Maple Leafs vs. Rangers prop picks made at 10:48 a.m. ET 03/20/2025.

Maple Leafs prop picks vs. Rangers March 20: Back Auston Matthews to stay hot

The Toronto Maple Leafs head to the Big Apple for a game against the middling New York Rangers.

The pregame narrative: Auston Matthews is finding his scoring touch at the right time as the NHL playoffs approach. I’m backing the Leafs’ captain to pot another goal on Thursday and former captain John Tavares to find his way onto the scoresheet.

Check out my Maple Leafs prop picks vs. Rangers for March 20.

Maple Leafs prop picks vs. Rangers

Best Bet: Matthews to score (+105)

Embed: #111438

There’s no chance Matthews will match his 69-goal production from last season, but the centreman is shaping into form at the right time of the season.

He has scored in three consecutive games.

He has points in 11/13 games since the midseason break.

He had 7 goals and 8 assists during that span.

And this is the matchup to stay hot in. In their first nine games of the season, the Rangers looked primed to repeat as Presidents’ Trophy winners. They allowed just 21 goals in those contests (2.33/game).

When the calendar flipped to November, the wheels started to fall off. In the 60 games since, New York has allowed 3.08 goals per game. That would rank in the bottom 10 of the NHL over the full season.

The side also allows the fifth-most shots against per game (30.0), and that’s exactly what I want to see when backing Matthews.

Key stat: Matthews takes the fourth most shots per game (4.06) and has points in five straight games vs. the Rangers, including five goals.

Quick pick

Tavares to record 1+ points (-134): Tavares continues to reclaim the hearts of Leafs fans with a bounce-back season.

After notching 65 points in 80 games in 2023-24, most expected another decline from the 34-year-old vet.

But that hasn’t been the case as Tavares is producing at a near-point-per-game pace with 57 in 61 games.

He’s been wildly consistent as well, recording at least a point in 41 of 61 games played (67.2% hit rate). Considering these odds have an implied probability of 57.3%, I’d say this pick has strong value.

Tavares will continue to benefit from playing with Toronto’s top forwards and I like his prospects of getting on the scoresheet against a vulnerable Rangers team.

Maple Leafs vs. Rangers prop picks made at 9:18 a.m. ET 03/20/2025.

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Maple Leafs prop picks vs. Avalanche March 19: Bet on William Nylander to score

The Toronto Maple Leafs welcome the Colorado Avalanche on Wednesday.

The pregame narrative: I’m rolling with Toronto’s top goalscorer and taking William Nylander to find the back of the net. For the Avalanche, I’m siding with the over on Artturi Lehkonen’s shots prop.

Check out my Maple Leafs prop picks vs. Avalanche for March 19.

Maple Leafs prop picks vs. Avalanche

Best Bet: Nylander to score (+155)

Embed: #111368

While the Leafs continue to shuffle line combinations, one thing stays consistent — Nylander’s ability to pot goals.

He leads Toronto with 38 goals in 67 games.

He has four goals in eight games since March 1.

Auston Matthews missed 15 games with an injury, but his 0.50 goals per game still falls short of Nylander’s 0.57.

Considering Matthews is +102 to score, I’d rather side with Nylander at a much juicier price.

Colorado is a tough matchup, no doubt, but it has a worse record on the road (18-14-1) than at home (23-10-2).

The Avs rely more on offence than defence and allow 2.87 goals per game. That ranks closer to the middle of the pack than the top.

When these two teams met on March 8, Nylander had two points in a 7-4 win for Colorado. Another explosion of offence is very possible tonight and the Swedish winger is bound to be in the mix.

Key stat: Nylander has five points in his last two games vs. the Avs.

Quick pick

Lehkonen over 1.5 shots (-143): First of all, this bet has an implied probability of 58.85%, even though Lehkonen has cashed this wager in 67.86% of games this season (38 of 56).

It would be concerning if Toronto was good at limiting chances, but the opposite can be said.

The Leafs allow the eighth most shots per game (29.1) and are slowly losing their newly formed identity as a good defence.

Lehkonen plays on the first line and second power play and averages 20:55 of ice time.

He’ll be out there plenty and only needs a couple of shots on goal for this prop to cash.

Maple Leafs vs. Avalanche prop picks made at 9:18 a.m. ET 03/19/2025.

Maple Leafs prop picks vs. Flames March 17: Bet on Auston Matthews to score

Two slumping Canadian teams meet on Monday when the Toronto Maple Leafs host the Calgary Flames.

The pregame narrative: The Maple Leafs have lost five of their last six games and I expect their captain, Auston Matthews, to deliver a goal in a winning effort. On the other side, Jonathan Huberdeau is a good bet to clear his shot total.

Check out my Maple Leafs prop picks vs. Flames for March 17.

Maple Leafs prop picks vs. Flames

Best Bet: Matthews to score (-108)

Matthews needs to get going if the Maple Leafs want any chance at a deep playoff run.

The reigning Rocket Richard winner has just 24 goals in 51 games after posting a career-best 69 last season.

But these underlying numbers provided by Natural Stat Trick suggest he should be scoring at a much higher rate.

First in xG per 60 (1.62)
Fourth in shots per 60 (11.49)
Ninth in chances per 60 (21.34)

Matthews is still creating plenty of chances, but a career-low 11.9% shooting percentage has hampered his production.

Is that just bad luck, or has his mystery ailment caused him to lose a step? It’s probably a bit of both, though I’m hoping his goal on Saturday did some heavy lifting on the mental side of things.

Matthews scored on an ugly giveaway by the Ottawa Senators and is slowly starting to find form, with goals in three of seven games this month.

The Flames have lost five of their last seven games, giving up eight goals in their last two losses.

Key stat: Dustin Wolf is likely to start in goal for Calgary tonight. He gave up five goals against the Maple Leafs on Feb. 4.

Quick pick

Huberdeau over 1.5 shots (-167): The Maple Leafs are reeling, making Huberdeau a prime target to clear a modest shot total.

Check out how Toronto ranks defensively on a per-60 basis since the 4 Nations Face-Off break ended:

28th in chances (64.52)
25th in shots (29.42)

Huberdeau has cleared this total in three of his last four games, logging four shots against the Dallas Stars and Vancouver Canucks and two against the Colorado Avalanche.

Looking back a little further, he’s gone over 1.5 shots in 10 of his last 15 and had a pair of shots against the Maple Leafs on Feb. 4.

Maple Leafs vs. Flames prop picks made at 10:43 a.m. ET 03/17/2025.

Maple Leafs prop picks vs. Flames March 17: Bet on Auston Matthews to score

Two slumping Canadian teams meet on Monday when the Toronto Maple Leafs host the Calgary Flames.

The pregame narrative: The Maple Leafs have lost five of their last six games and I expect their captain, Auston Matthews, to deliver a goal in a winning effort. On the other side, Jonathan Huberdeau is a good bet to clear his shot total.

Check out my Maple Leafs prop picks vs. Flames for March 17.

Maple Leafs prop picks vs. Flames

Best Bet: Matthews to score (-118)

Embed: #111316

Matthews needs to get going if the Maple Leafs want any chance at a deep playoff run.

The reigning Rocket Richard winner has just 24 goals in 51 games after posting a career-best 69 last season.

But these underlying numbers provided by Natural Stat Trick suggest he should be scoring at a much higher rate.

First in xG per 60 (1.62)
Fourth in shots per 60 (11.49)
Ninth in chances per 60 (21.34)

Matthews is still creating plenty of chances, but a career-low 11.9% shooting percentage has hampered his production.

Is that just bad luck, or has his mystery ailment caused him to lose a step? It’s probably a bit of both, though I’m hoping his goal on Saturday did some heavy lifting on the mental side of things.

Matthews scored on an ugly giveaway by the Ottawa Senators and is slowly starting to find form, with goals in three of seven games this month.

The Flames have lost five of their last seven games, giving up eight goals in their last two losses.

Key stat: Dustin Wolf is likely to start in goal for Calgary tonight. He gave up five goals against the Maple Leafs on Feb. 4.

Quick pick

Huberdeau over 1.5 shots (-130): The Maple Leafs are reeling, making Huberdeau a prime target to clear a modest shot total.

Check out how Toronto ranks defensively on a per-60 basis since the 4 Nations Face-Off break ended:

28th in chances (64.52)
25th in shots (29.42)

Huberdeau has cleared this total in three of his last four games, logging four shots against the Dallas Stars and Vancouver Canucks and two against the Colorado Avalanche.

Looking back a little further, he’s gone over 1.5 shots in 10 of his last 15 and had a pair of shots against the Maple Leafs on Feb. 4.

Maple Leafs vs. Flames prop picks made at 10:43 a.m. ET 03/17/2025.

Best NHL anytime goalscorer picks March 16: Back Connor McDavid, Kyle Connor

Connor McDavid and Kyle Connor are my picks to score during Sunday’s NHL slate.

The pregame narrative: McDavid has been awfully quiet lately but has a great opportunity to snap out of it against the New York Rangers. Connor, meanwhile, has been one of the NHL’s best goalscorers all season and draws a great matchup.

Check out my NHL anytime goal picks for March 16.

NHL anytime goal picks

Best Bet: McDavid to score a goal (+130)

McDavid hasn’t scored at an elite clip since winning the 2022-23 Rocket Richard trophy (64 goals) — and he’s been in a slump since sending the Americans packing from the 4 Nations Face-Off — but it would be foolish to think he’s lost a step.

Edmonton’s captain is fourth in the league with 84 points, doing most of his damage as a passer.

Tonight presents a prime opportunity for him to get off the schneid, though, against a Rangers team starting its No. 2 goaltender.

Igor Shesterkin played last night, meaning Jonathan Quick gets the call on Sunday. And to put it bluntly, his numbers are awful (NHL ranks in parentheses):

3.14 GAA (47th)
.898 SV% (32nd)
-0.136 goals saved above expected per 60 (59th)

That last stat, courtesy of Money Puck, shows us how far Quick has fallen from his days with the Los Angeles Kings. He allowed seven goals in his last start, which came against the Columbus Blue Jackets.

New York is a well-below-average defensive team, giving up the ninth-most chances and second-most high-danger chances on a 60 minute basis, according to Natural Stat Trick.

Without the Vezina-winning Shesterkin in goal, I can foresee McDavid and the Oilers cruising to a win.

Key stat: McDavid scored twice against the Rangers when he last played them in November.

Quick pick

Connor to score a goal (+125): All Connor does, year in and year out, is score goals.

Excluding his rookie campaign where he played 20 games, Connor has scored 30-plus all but once — and the outlier was the COVID-shortened 2020-21 season.

This year, Winnipeg’s sharpshooter has 35 goals and is on pace for 42.

He’s found the net in three of his last five games and scored two goals on Friday against the defensively-stout Dallas Stars.

On Sunday, he gets to go up against a Seattle Kraken team that is leaking oil.

The Kraken give up the sixth-most chances and 11th-most high-danger chances on a 60-minute basis.

They’re likely to start Joey Daccord in net, per Daily Faceoff, and he has a 3.68 GAA and .864 SV% in five March starts.

NHL anytime goal picks made at 1:51 p.m. ET on 03/16/2025.

Best NHL anytime goalscorer picks March 16: Back Connor McDavid, Kyle Connor

Connor McDavid and Kyle Connor are my picks to score during Sunday’s NHL slate.

The pregame narrative: McDavid has been awfully quiet lately but has a great opportunity to snap out of it against the New York Rangers. Connor, meanwhile, has been one of the NHL’s best goalscorers all season and draws a great matchup.

Check out my NHL anytime goal picks for March 16.

NHL anytime goal picks

Best Bet: McDavid to score a goal (+123)

Embed: #111295

McDavid hasn’t scored at an elite clip since winning the 2022-23 Rocket Richard trophy (64 goals) — and he’s been in a slump since sending the Americans packing from the 4 Nations Face-Off — but it would be foolish to think he’s lost a step.

Edmonton’s captain is fourth in the league with 84 points, doing most of his damage as a passer.

Tonight presents a prime opportunity for him to get off the schneid, though, against a Rangers team starting its No. 2 goaltender.

Igor Shesterkin played last night, meaning Jonathan Quick gets the call on Sunday. And to put it bluntly, his numbers are awful (NHL ranks in parentheses):

3.14 GAA (47th)
.898 SV% (32nd)
-0.136 goals saved above expected per 60 (59th)

That last stat, courtesy of Money Puck, shows us how far Quick has fallen from his days with the Los Angeles Kings. He allowed seven goals in his last start, which came against the Columbus Blue Jackets.

New York is a well-below-average defensive team, giving up the ninth-most chances and second-most high-danger chances on a 60 minute basis, according to Natural Stat Trick.

Without the Vezina-winning Shesterkin in goal, I can foresee McDavid and the Oilers cruising to a win.

Key stat: McDavid scored twice against the Rangers when he last played them in November.

Quick pick

Connor to score a goal (+116): All Connor does, year in and year out, is score goals.

Excluding his rookie campaign where he played 20 games, Connor has scored 30-plus all but once — and the outlier was the COVID-shortened 2020-21 season.

This year, Winnipeg’s sharpshooter has 35 goals and is on pace for 42.

He’s found the net in three of his last five games and scored two goals on Friday against the defensively-stout Dallas Stars.

On Sunday, he gets to go up against a Seattle Kraken team that is leaking oil.

The Kraken give up the sixth-most chances and 11th-most high-danger chances on a 60-minute basis.

They’re likely to start Joey Daccord in net, per Daily Faceoff, and he has a 3.68 GAA and .864 SV% in five March starts.

NHL anytime goal picks made at 1:51 p.m. ET on 03/16/2025.

Senators vs. Maple Leafs prop picks March 15: Bet on Auston Matthews and Jake Sanderson

The Battle of Ontario renews on Saturday night when the Toronto Maple Leafs host the Ottawa Senators.

The pregame narrative: Don’t look now, but only six points separate the Maple Leafs from the Senators in the crowded Atlantic Division standings. Ottawa’s offence is rolling and I like Jake Sanderson to record a point. Also, back Auston Matthews to clear a manageable shot total.

Check out my Senators vs. Maple Leafs prop picks for March 15.

Senators vs. Maple Leafs prop picks

Best Bet: Sanderson to score 1+ points (+100)

Ottawa is within striking distance of the Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning after winning five straight games.

The Senators are getting production up and down the lineup, and Sanderson has been leading the charge on the back end.

He’s got 10 points (one goal, nine assists) in 10 games coming out of the 4 Nations Face-Off break and is 7-3 against this line.

Sanderson leads all Ottawa skaters in ice time (24:25) this season and plays on the top power play.

That means he’ll have ample opportunities against a Leafs team playing some suspect defence. Check out how Toronto ranks defensively on a 60-minute basis since the league returned to action on Feb. 22, per Natural Stat Trick:

30th in chances (65.64)
27th in goals (3.71)
27th in scoring chances (30.73)
26th in shots (29.85)

Chris Tanev has returned, which is a much needed shot in the arm for Toronto. Still, I’m worried about how the team is defending as a whole.

Anthony Stolarz starts in goal for the Maple Leafs, and he’s been shaky. The netminder has allowed 10 goals in his last three starts with an .867 save percentage.

Key stat: Sanderson has six points in his last three road games.

Quick pick

Matthews over 3.5 shots (-143): Matthews is snake-bitten right now, with just three goals in his last 10 games coming out of the break.

The reigning Rocket Richard winner could break out of it at any time, and I think his anytime goalscorer prop is certainly worth a look. However, this shot total feels way too low.

Matthews is averaging 3.9 shots on goal in his last 10, clearing this line six times.

He’s still playing north of 20 minutes a night and draws a great matchup against the Senators.

On a 60-minute basis, Ottawa is allowing the fourth-most shots (30.97) and ninth-most chances (61.39) since the league returned to action.

Senators vs. Maple Leafs prop picks made at 1:03 p.m. ET 03/15/2025.

Senators vs. Maple Leafs prop picks March 15: Bet on Auston Matthews and Jake Sanderson

The Battle of Ontario renews on Saturday night when the Toronto Maple Leafs host the Ottawa Senators.

The pregame narrative: Don’t look now, but only six points separate the Maple Leafs from the Senators in the crowded Atlantic Division standings. Ottawa’s offence is rolling and I like Jake Sanderson to record a point. Also, back Auston Matthews to clear a manageable shot total.

Check out my Senators vs. Maple Leafs prop picks for March 15.

Senators vs. Maple Leafs prop picks

Best Bet: Sanderson to score 1+ points (+102)

Embed: #111268

Ottawa is within striking distance of the Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning after winning five straight games.

The Senators are getting production up and down the lineup, and Sanderson has been leading the charge on the back end.

He’s got 10 points (one goal, nine assists) in 10 games coming out of the 4 Nations Face-Off break and is 7-3 against this line.

Sanderson leads all Ottawa skaters in ice time (24:25) this season and plays on the top power play.

That means he’ll have ample opportunities against a Leafs team playing some suspect defence. Check out how Toronto ranks defensively on a 60-minute basis since the league returned to action on Feb. 22, per Natural Stat Trick:

30th in chances (65.64)
27th in goals (3.71)
27th in scoring chances (30.73)
26th in shots (29.85)

Chris Tanev has returned, which is a much needed shot in the arm for Toronto. Still, I’m worried about how the team is defending as a whole.

Anthony Stolarz starts in goal for the Maple Leafs, and he’s been shaky. The netminder has allowed 10 goals in his last three starts with an .867 save percentage.

Key stat: Sanderson has six points in his last three road games.

Quick pick

Matthews over 3.5 shots (-125): Matthews is snake-bitten right now, with just three goals in his last 10 games coming out of the break.

The reigning Rocket Richard winner could break out of it at any time, and I think his anytime goalscorer prop is certainly worth a look. However, this shot total feels way too low.

Matthews is averaging 3.9 shots on goal in his last 10, clearing this line six times.

He’s still playing north of 20 minutes a night and draws a great matchup against the Senators.

On a 60-minute basis, Ottawa is allowing the fourth-most shots (30.97) and ninth-most chances (61.39) since the league returned to action.

Senators vs. Maple Leafs prop picks made at 1:03 p.m. ET 03/15/2025.

Best NHL anytime goalscorer picks March 14: Bet on Sebastian Aho, Steven Stamkos to score

Two red-hot forwards headline Friday’s anytime goalscorer picks.

The pregame narrative: Sebastian Aho has taken the reins in Carolina and is playing his best hockey ahead of the playoffs. I have a pick on the Finn, and later on, I’ll be backing Steven Stamkos to score for the Nashville Predators.

Check out my NHL anytime goal picks for March 14.

NHL anytime goal picks

Best Bet: Aho to score a goal (+140)

When the Carolina Hurricanes traded away Mikko Rantanen at the deadline for a haul of future assets, some fans assumed the team would get worse.

But the opposite has occurred so far. The Canes have consecutive wins over two strong teams, the Winnipeg Jets and Tampa Bay Lightning.

That’s because with or without Rantanen, Aho’s been able to produce.

Over the last 18 games, here’s how he’s fared as a goalscorer:

11 goals
10-8 against this line

Aho has two assists in two games since the departure of Rantanen and I feel it’s time he gets back in the scoring column.

This is a good matchup to do so, too. The Detroit Red Wings allow the 10th-most goals per game and are expected to start Petr Mrazek, who’s been terrible this season.

Key stat: According to Money Puck, Mrazek’s -14.8 goals saved above expected ranks 92nd out of 94 goalies.

Quick pick

Stamkos to score a goal (+180): The first-year Pred is finding his stride and is fresh off being named the NHL’s second star of the week.

Stamkos had a blistering four goals and four assists in three games and followed it up by potting another goal against the San Jose Sharks on Wednesday.

The Anaheim Ducks should provide plenty of opportunities. They allow the most shots per game (32.3) and surrender just north of three goals on average.

They’ve also lost back-to-back games, allowing 10 goals total in those contests.

Stamkos is primed to continue his renaissance run as the Predators look to win their sixth straight.

NHL anytime goal picks made at 10:01 a.m. ET on 03/14/2025.