Category: NHL

We’re reaching crunch time in the NHL’s second round, and every goal could be the difference between moving on or going home.

Today’s NHL narrative: The Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers meet for a pivotal Game 5 with the series tied at 2-2. Out west, the Edmonton Oilers have a close-out opportunity in Las Vegas against the Golden Knights.

Check out the best NHL anytime goal picks for May 14, featuring John Tavares and Evan Bouchard.

NHL anytime goal picks

Best Bet: Tavares to score (+205)

Tavares isn’t the flashiest player on the star-studded Maple Leafs, but he’s been one of their most productive this year.

The veteran centre scored 38 goals during the regular season and has been a force this series. Check out how he ranks among Toronto’s skaters vs. Florida, with metrics provided by Natural Stat Trick:

• 1st in shots (17)
• 1st in high-danger chances (11)
• 2nd in chances (27)
• 3rd in xG (2.14)

Tavares scored a pair of goals against the Panthers in Game 3 and found the net in three of six games against the Ottawa Senators in Round 1.

He’s skating alongside the red-hot William Nylander on the second line, which should get a favourable matchup at home.

Florida head coach Paul Maurice was pairing his shutdown line of Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart and Jesper Boqvist against Tavares and Nylander on the road.

In the first two games, Craig Berube was utilizing last change to have Auston Matthews’ line match up against that Florida trio.

Key stat: Tavares’ 5.0 xG are the fifth-most among all players this postseason.

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NHL prop prediction

Bouchard to score (+375): I already backed Draisaitl to score as my favourite Oilers vs. Golden Knights prop bet, so let’s highlight another Oiler at big plus-money odds.

Bouchard has four goals this postseason, scoring a pair in back-to-back games against the Los Angeles Kings.

He hasn’t found the net since, but he’s firing pucks at a high rate while quarterbacking a lethal power play that features Draisaitl and Connor McDavid.

Check out how Bouchard ranks among defencemen this postseason:

• 1st in shots (30)
• 1st in shot attempts (71)
• 5th in TOI (264:40)
• 6th in scoring chances (16)

Vegas netminder Adin Hill has struggled mightily this postseason, posting a 3.15 GAA and .876 SV% through 10 starts.

Bouchard is second among all active defencemen in playoff goals per game (0.27) behind Cale Makar.

NHL anytime goal picks made at 11:49 a.m. ET on 05/14/2025.

The Edmonton Oilers can advance with a road win over the Vegas Golden Knights on Wednesday.

The pregame narrative: Vegas, down 3-1 after getting blanked for the first time in the playoffs, is a slight favourite with its season on the line. A victory for Edmonton would mark the club’s third trip to the Western Conference finals in four years.

Check out my Oilers vs. Golden Knights prop picks on Leon Draisaitl and Thomas Hertl for Game 5 on May 14.

Oilers vs. Golden Knights picks

Best bet: Draisaitl to score (+120)

Few players rise to the occasion like Draisaitl.

The German has five goals this postseason and 46 goals in 84 career playoff games.

That puts him ninth all-time in postseason goals per game (0.548), ahead of names like Pavel Bure, Jari Kurri and Brett Hull.

Draisaitl scored in both road games to open this series and has found the net in four of five contests away from home.

Riding shotgun with Connor McDavid certainly helps. McDavid leads all postseason skaters with 14 assists.

Edmonton’s top line of McDavid, Draisaitl and Corey Perry has dominated this series at 5v5.

They own a 61.82% Corsi rate (chances allowed divided by chances created), according to Natural Stat Trick, and have outscored the opposition 4-2.

Key stat: Draisaitl has scored in four of his last six games against Vegas.

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Game 5 prop prediction

Hertl to not record a point (+100): The Golden Knights have gotten caved in at 5v5 this series, which will ultimately be their undoing, barring an unlikely comeback.

Vegas has been outscored 13-7 at even strength, and Hertl has been one of many Golden Knights struggling to produce.

The Czech winger has been shuffled around the Golden Knights’ lineup this series and has nothing to show for it, logging zero points and 10 shots in four games.

He’s now been held pointless in six straight games and seven of his last eight dating back to the first round against the Minnesota Wild.

Hertl does play on the top power-play unit, but that group is also in a rut, going 2-for-12 this series.

Oilers vs. Golden Knights prop picks made at 4:20 p.m. ET 05/13/2025.

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers’ series returns north of the border tied 2-2.

The pregame narrative: The home team has won every game so far, but Florida is favoured on Wednesday after shutting out Toronto in Game 4. The Maple Leafs have scored in bunches at home but are still waiting on a breakout performance from their captain, Auston Matthews.

Check out my Panthers vs. Maple Leafs best bets for Game 5 of the second round, featuring Matthews and Sam Bennett.

Panthers vs. Maple Leafs best bets

Best Bet: Maple Leafs over 2.5 goals (-137)

Toronto was horrible on Sunday night. There’s no hiding that.

The Leafs took four penalties in the first period and struggled to get anything going after that as the Panthers protected a 1-0 lead.

But I’m optimistic they can rebound on home ice for a few reasons:

• Toronto has scored 3+ goals in 8 of 10 games this postseason, netting nine total goals against Florida at home in Games 1 and 2.

• The Leafs are 11-1 in their last 12 home games dating back to the regular season. They averaged 3.83 goals in those contests and cleared this line nine times.

Sergei Bobrovsky is coming off a shutout victory, which may give bettors pause about backing Toronto on this market. But he wasn’t tested much in the first two periods and had given up three-plus goals in five of six games before Game 4.

The netminder owns a shaky .888 SV% this postseason and ranks 17th out of 26 goalies in MoneyPuck’s goals saved above expected per 60.

Key stat: Toronto has cleared this mark in three straight home games against Florida.

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Game 5 picks

Matthews over 3.5 shots on goal (-110): I would love to back Matthews to score on Wednesday, but I need to see a puck go in the net first.

Toronto’s captain has been doing a lot of things right, playing great defence and taking a ton of shots.

He ranks second among all playoff skaters in shot attempts this postseason (75), netting out to 7.5 per game.

The problem? Only 35 of those have hit the net. Matthews has three-plus shots in seven straight games, but has gone 2-5 against this line.

I’ll choose to take a glass-half-full approach here, though, and bank on some positive regression.

Bennett to record a point (-113): I’m honestly shocked you can back Bennett at this price.

The physical winger has wreaked havoc on this series from the moment he ran into Anthony Stolarz in Game 1.

In addition to getting under Toronto’s skin, he’s found the stat sheet in three of four games with two goals.

Bennett is second to Sam Reinhart in shots (29), shot attempts (54) and xG (3.63) this postseason, going 7-2 against this line since the start of Round 1.

Panthers vs. Maple Leafs best bets made at 11:57 a.m. ET 05/13/2025.

The Dallas Stars and Winnipeg Jets meet for a pivotal Game 4 on Tuesday night.

The pregame narrative: Dallas is favoured to win and take a commanding 3-1 lead after torching Connor Hellebuyck in Game 3. The Jets look to get something out of their Vezina-winning goaltender, who has been horrible on the road this postseason.

Check out my Jets vs. Stars prop picks on Thomas Harley and Tyler Seguin for Game 4 on May 13.

Jets vs. Stars picks

Best bet: Harley to record a point (-122)

The playoff lights are far too bright for Hellebuyck.

In the regular season, the netminder led the league in goals against average (2.01) and was second in save percentage (.925). That was enough to earn him a Hart Trophy nod, and almost certainly, a third Vezina trophy.

But the playoffs have been nothing short of a disaster for Hellebuyck, especially on the road.

• The American has an .845 SV% and 3.51 GAA in 10 starts.

• He has allowed 5+ goals in all four road games, being pulled from the net three times.

• Hellebuyck ranks 24th out of 26 netminders in goals saved above expected per 60 (-0.992), per MoneyPuck.

Dallas’ offence has been strong at home this postseason after getting held to one goal in the very first game. The Stars have scored 19 goals in four games at American Airlines Center since, and I expect another shelling tonight.

Harley seems like the best value to get on the board.

The 23-year-old defenceman is leading the Stars in ice time (27:11 per game) and has points in seven of 10 playoff games.

He’s 5-0 against this prop at home this postseason, and he skates on the top power-play unit (featuring the red-hot Mikko Rantanen).

Key stat: Hellebuyck has allowed 4+ goals in eight straight road playoff games.

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Game 4 prop prediction

Seguin to record a point (+104): Seguin is another Star I want to target tonight.

The veteran winger hasn’t found his way onto the score sheet this series, but it’s not for lack of effort.

His line with Jamie Benn and Matt Duchene is generating a 67.74% Corsi rate and 72.04 xG rate, according to Natural Stat Trick.

Seguin had cashed this bet in four of seven games against the Colorado Avalanche in Round 1 and ranks sixth on Dallas with 35 chances (i.e., shot attempts) this postseason.

Stars vs. Jets prop picks made at 11:08 a.m. ET 05/13/2025.