Category: NBA

A trio of NBA stars have my attention for Tuesday’s NBA prop picks.

Tonight’s NBA props narrative: Anthony Edwards put up a career-high point total last time out and is worth backing on an even-money scoring prop with an A+ matchup tonight. Elsewhere, I’m putting some cold water on Kevin Durant’s recent hot streak with a fade on his 3s prop.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Jan. 20, featuring a prediction on Domantas Sabonis.

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NBA prop picks Jan. 20

Best bet: Sabonis over 8.5 rebounds (-134)

Sure, there’s some extra juice on this prop. But it could be the last time we see a line this low for Sabonis, and I think that’s worth taking advantage of.

Sabonis is working back from a knee injury, which forced him to miss 27 games. He returned to action on Jan. 16 and has come off the bench in his first two matchups:

• Jan. 16: 21 MIN, 13 PTS, 6 REB

• Jan. 18: 20 MIN, 8 PTS, 8 REB

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Will Sabonis see an uptick in minutes tonight? It’s difficult to know for sure, but hopefully his workload does move a little closer to normal — especially with trade rumours swirling.

The three-time defending NBA rebounding champ averaged 13.3 rebounds on 35.0 minutes over the past three seasons. I certainly don’t expect that tonight, but nine rebounds over 20-25 minutes seems like a very reasonable ask.

Sabonis and the Sacramento Kings will face the Miami Heat, who are allowing the second-most rebounds per game.

Key stat: Sabonis has 12+ rebounds in each of his past five matchups vs. the Heat. That includes 34 total boards over two matchups last season.

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Best NBA picks

Durant under 2.5 threes (-127): Durant is in a groove right now, and it might not feel like the right time to fade him. But his 3-pointers line has drifted up to a spot where I feel comfortable riding with the under.

• Durant doesn’t need big-time volume from beyond the arc to be a successful scorer. He’s one of the greatest midrange hoopers of all time. He’s shooting 53% from the midrange this season, per Cleaning The Glass, which ranks in the 91st percentile.

• On the whole, Durant is averaging 2.2 made 3s on 5.6 attempts per game this season.

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Over his past 12 games, Durant has put up 28.0 PPG while shooting north of 50.0%. Nice, right?

But even though his 3-point shot volume is higher than usual in that span (7.2 attempts/game), KD has cashed this under in nine of 12 games.

Also, this under is 26-12 for Durant throughout the season.

NBA player prop predictions

Edwards over 3.5 threes (+100): It’s difficult to find a player who oozes confidence more freely than Edwards. And right now, every ounce of that confidence is warranted.

• Edwards is coming off a masterful performance against a supremely talented Spurs squad: 55 points on 19-of-33 shooting (9 for 16 from 3-point range).

• Over his past six games, he’s shooting 52.7% from deep on 9.2 attempts.

• For the season overall, Edwards is averaging 3.5 made 3s while shooting at an elite 41.8% clip.

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Tonight’s matchup should be a cakewalk for Edwards, as he faces the worst scoring defence in the league, belonging to the Utah Jazz.

Utah allows the most points (127.5/game), the most 3s (15.7/game) and the second-highest 3PT% (37.8).

When he last faced the Jazz in Utah in November, Edwards put up 35 points with 5-of-9 shooting from beyond the arc.

NBA prop picks made at 10 a.m. ET on Jan. 20, 2026.

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Neither Luka Doncic nor Austin Reaves will play on Saturday night for the Los Angeles Lakers, which should open doors for some other players.

The pregame narrative: LeBron James is still capable of scoring 25-plus points in any matchup, but that’s especially true given his team’s notable absences — and the fact that he tends to dominate the Portland Trail Blazers. L.A. has lost four of its past five and is a 3.5-point road underdog.

Check out my Lakers vs. Trail Blazers SGP predictions for Jan. 17, featuring prop picks on LeBron, Gabe Vincent and Donovan Clingan.

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Lakers vs. Trail Blazers predictions

Parlay: Vincent 2+ threes | LeBron 25+ points | Clingan 10+ rebounds (+335)

Vincent 2+ threes (-130): With Doncic and Reaves both out tonight, Vincent could crack the Lakers’ starting lineup. But even if he doesn’t, I expect him to fire plenty of 3s.

Doncic and Reaves shoot far more 3-pointers than anyone else on the Lakers, combining to average 17.6 attempts per game. At least some of that production is going to have to be spread out among other players.

Enter Vincent, who is currently averaging 1.4 makes in 19 games (six starts).

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There’s nothing special about the veteran guard’s 3-point production, but he has been a model of consistency in recent games.

Since returning from a nine-game absence, Vincent has attempted at least five 3s in five consecutive games. He’s gone 10-for-27 (37.0%) in that span and is 4-1 vs. this prop.

Getting starter’s minutes tonight would help, but either way, he’s demonstrated a stable enough shot volume to make this worth betting on.

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NBA SGP legs

LeBron 25+ points (-200): This is the leg I’m most confident in, and the -200 odds back that up.

• LeBron is going ageless-wonder-mode this month, putting up 27.9 PPG on 54.7% shooting at 41 years young.

• He is 6-1 vs. this scoring prop in January.

-> Back Lakers’ superstar LeBron James vs. the Blazers

On the season, LeBron is averaging 22.7 PPG … but this will be his first time playing without either Doncic or Reaves. Given that those guys combine to average just over 60 points, that makes a huge difference.

He can’t (and won’t) do it all himself, but the King should cash this milestone bet against the Blazers under these circumstances.

Also, LeBron is 7-0 vs. this prop (34.3 PPG) when facing the Blazers dating back to the start of the 2022-23 season.

Clingan 10+ rebounds (-182): In addition to the Lakers missing two above-average rebounding guards, they have a pair of bigs (Deandre Ayton, Jaxson Hayes) listed as questionable on the injury report.

Tonight should be a prime opportunity for Clingan to shine.

For one thing, he has already dominated the glass against the Lakers, snagging 14 rebounds when they matched up in October (14 rebounds).

Also, this line isn’t asking much of Clingan when you consider he’s averaging 10.7 RPG.

The 7-foot-2 centre is 23-15 vs. this milestone prop.

Lakers vs. Trail Blazers SGP made at 11:15 a.m. ET on Jan. 17, 2026.

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Aaron Gordon is back up to full speed, and he’s staring down a juicy matchup on Saturday night at home against the Washington Wizards.

Tonight’s NBA props narrative: Gordon missed a significant chunk of time with a hamstring injury, but he’s played six games so far this month and seems to be fully ramped up. Look for him to take advantage of a team that struggles to slow down high-scoring bigs.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Jan. 17, featuring Kon Knueppel and Ausar Thompson.

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NBA prop picks Jan. 17

Best bet: Gordon over 19.5 points (-130)

Nikola Jokic (knee) has been cleared for on-court work, which is obviously great news for the Nuggets. And it comes just as Gordon returns to full strength.

Gordon (hamstring) came back on Jan. 4 after about a month and a half off. He came off the bench in his first three games post-injury, but now the 6-foot-8 forward is back in the rotation and playing his typical 30-ish minutes per night.

• In three games as a starter this month, Gordon has averaged 20.3 points on 14.3 field goal attempts. That’s the kind of volume we’re looking for.

• This season, Gordon is averaging 12.4 field goal attempts, which is his highest mark since joining the Nuggets in 2020-21. It makes sense that he’s ratcheted that volume up even higher with Jokic on the sidelines.

-> Bet on Nuggets forward Aaron Gordon vs. the Wizards!

If Jokic was healthy and playing on Saturday, I’d be looking at his prop markets first. But without him, Gordon should be able to feast against Washington’s woeful defence.

The Wizards allow the second-most points per game and the fifth-most 3-point attempts. Gordon is a big man with an adept scoring touch from the outside, so he should thrive.

At his current shot volume, and without Jokic around, Gordon is a smash play in this A+ matchup.

Key stat: According to Fantasy Pros, the Wizards allow the second-most points per game to opposing power forwards (25.4).

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Best NBA picks

Thompson over 5.5 rebounds (-124): When Thompson last faced the Indiana Pacers way back on Nov. 22, he only amassed three rebounds. But his output on the glass since then has my attention.

• Over his past 22 games, Thompson is 16-6 vs. this prop while averaging 5.9 rebounds.

• He’s capable of doing less with more, too. Thompson, who averages 26.2 minutes, in each of his past three games with 20 or fewer minutes played.

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Although it didn’t work out when he last faced the Pacers, I’m not giving up on Thompson as a rebounder in this matchup.

Indiana allows the seventh-most rebounds per game to opposing small forwards, as well as the third-most rebounds overall.

NBA player prop predictions

Knueppel over 17.5 points (-105): Knueppel continues to amaze in his rookie season with the Hornets, and I’m not backing down from his points prop against a stout Golden State Warriors defence.

The Warriors rank seventh in the NBA in defensive rating (112.4), but Knueppel is on an extended heater that’s worth backing.

Over his past 16 games, here’s what the ex-Duke forward has posted:

• 20.6 PPG
• 52.3 FG%
• 47.1 3PT%

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Knueppel is 13-3 vs. this points prop in that span, too. At near-even money, I’m content to back someone who’s shooting this well.

Hopefully, the Hornets create more shots for Knueppel — and fewer for guys like Miles Bridges and Brandon Miller — in the future.

NBA prop picks made at 10:15 a.m. ET on Jan. 17, 2026.

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