Category: NBA

In the final NBA game of the night, the Utah Jazz host the Miami Heat in Salt Lake City.

The pregame narrative: Miami will play its fourth game in a five-game road trip on Saturday night against the lowly Jazz, who are third from the bottom in the Western Conference standings. The Heat are 6.5-point favourites.

Check out my same-game parlay Heat vs. Jazz picks, featuring prop bets on Norman Powell and Bam Adebayo.

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Heat vs. Jazz picks

SGP: Over 239.5 points | Powell 3+ threes | Adebayo under 3.5 assists (+350)

Over 239.5 points (-167): This is a lot of points, but these are some lightning-quick teams stepping onto the court tonight.

Miami and Utah rank first and third, respectively, in pace. They’re two of the three NBA teams averaging north of 102.5 possessions per games.

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More possessions don’t always equate to more points, but there’s a strong correlation. I’m buying the volume of opportunities that should be present in this matchup.

Overs are 17-6-0 (73.9%) in Jazz home games, which is the second-highest rate in the NBA.

On the Miami side, overs are 6-1 in the team’s past seven games — including four straight on the road.

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NBA SGP pick

Powell 3+ threes (-167): If it’s true that a boatload of points will be scored, Powell should be able to chip in with some 3s.

The ex-Raptor is 20-19 vs. this milestone prop, so it might seem like a bit of a coin flip. This is the side of the coin I want to be on, though.

Why? Because of the matchup.

On a per-game basis, Utah allows the most 3-point makes (15.7) and attempts (41.7) in the NBA.

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Powell is also in fine form entering Saturday night, averaging 3.4 made 3s on 41.8% shooting over his past 12 games.

This is a dream matchup for him to keep on firing.

Miami vs. Utah ATS prediction

Adebayo under 3.5 assists (-136): Without this leg, the parlay would only carry +128 odds. The negative correlation drives this up to a +350 ticket, and that’s well worth it in my view.

Adebayo has been passing more lately, in fairness, going over this assist total in seven of his past 11 games. But he’s only averaging 3.8 APG in that span, so it’s not like he’s routinely clearing this line with ease.

• On the season, Adebayo is averaging 2.8 APG. The under on this prop is 24-13.

• Adebayo has gone under 3.5 assists in all four matchups vs. the Jazz since the start of the 2023-24 season.

• Despite allowing the most assists per game overall, Utah allows the 10th-fewest assists to opposing centres, per Fantasy Pros.

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Adebayo averaged 4.2 APG in a six-season run from 2020-25, so he’s perfectly capable of hitting the over and sinking this parlay.

But given that he’s taken a notable step back as a passer this year — and the odds spike with this prediction — I’m content to take the plunge.

Heat vs. Jazz picks made at 3:15 p.m. on Jan. 24, 2026.

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For just the second time since last season’s earth-shattering trade, Luka Doncic returns to Dallas to face the Mavericks.

The pregame narrative: Naturally, I had to include Doncic in Saturday’s +310 same-game parlay. Dallas should be able to cover a teased-up spread against the Los Angeles Lakers, but Doncic is still a good bet to get some buckets beyond the arc.

Check out my same-game parlay Lakers vs. Mavericks picks, featuring a prop bet on Daniel Gafford.

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Lakers vs. Mavericks picks

SGP: Doncic 3+ threes | Gafford over 6.5 rebounds | Mavericks +8.5 (+310)

Doncic 3+ threes (-245): We’re easing into this SGP with a 3s milestone that Doncic hits with excellent consistency — especially right now.

• In his past 14 games, Doncic is 11-3 vs. this prop. He’s averaging 3.5 made 3s on 9.9 attempts in that span.

• Overall this season, Doncic has cashed this bet in 25 of 35 games (71.4%).

For the second time in three seasons, Doncic is averaging north of 10.0 attempted 3s. That kind of volume is going to make this milestone prop feel really safe most nights.

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Doncic put on a show in Dallas last year, dropping 45 points while shooting 7-for-10 from beyond the arc. He followed that up in L.A. this fall with a 4-for-9 showing from 3-point range against the Mavs.

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NBA SGP pick

Gafford over 6.5 rebounds (+112): This leg is doing most of the heavy lifting for the SGP, but it seems like a pretty reasonable play at plus-money odds.

The main risk is that Gafford has missed four straight games with an ankle injury. But he’s listed as “probable” on Saturday’s injury report, so bettors should expect him back in the mix.

Gafford has cashed this bet in seven of his past eight games, averaging 8.4 RPG in that span. Last time out, he grabbed 10 boards in just 18 minutes.

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It’s certainly possible that Gafford will see fewer minutes tonight than usual since he’s been out for a week and a half. But with Anthony Davis and Dereck Lively both sidelined, Dallas can’t afford to be too easy on him.

Gafford is averaging 7.2 RPG in 20 games as a starter, so look for him to take advantage of that role once again.

Los Angeles vs. Dallas ATS prediction

Mavericks +8.5 (-265): When Dallas is getting points at home, the team is usually a tough out.

According to Team Rankings, the Mavs are 11-3-0 ATS (78.6%) as home underdogs. That’s the highest hit rate among the 28 teams that have been home dogs in at least three games this season.

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• The Lakers have failed to cover a -8.5 spread in 14 straight road games.

• Dallas is 10-3 ATS in its past 13 home games. In that span, the Mavs have underdog wins against the Heat, Rockets (twice), Pistons, Nuggets and Warriors.

Lakers vs. Mavericks picks made at 1:15 p.m. on Jan. 24, 2026.

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Josh Giddey is back and Steph Curry is ready to cook, and both players have my attention for Saturday’s prop bets.

Tonight’s NBA props narrative: Curry has had some quiet offensive showings recently, but I’m calling on him to step up tonight in an important matchup (well, as important as a January matchup can be). As for Giddey, his strong return on Thursday makes tonight’s points/assists prop look like a breeze.

Check out these NBA prop picks for Jan. 24, featuring a prediction on Anthony Black.

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NBA prop picks Jan. 24

Best bet: Curry over 28.5 points (-113)

It’s still too early to be earnestly tracking the NBA standings, but Saturday’s matchup between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Golden State Warriors is a big one nonetheless.

The Warriors are on dangerous ground after Jimmy Butler went down with a season-ending knee injury, falling to eighth in the Western Conference. Meanwhile, thanks to four straight losses, the Timberwolves have sunk into play-in territory as the current No. 7 seed.

We’re not even at the trade deadline yet, so again, it’s too early to make a big deal out of this.

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But I think both squads will throw their best punch on Saturday, and that should include Curry taking on a huge role in the Warriors’ offence.

• Curry has gone under this points prop in five of his past six games. But in each of the unders, Golden State either won or lost by 13+ points.

• In Golden State’s lone matchup vs. Minnesota earlier this season, a seven-point loss for the Warriors, Curry did his part with 39 points on 14-of-28 shooting.

• The Warriors are +6.5 road underdogs tonight, so the game should be reasonably close.

Even at 37, Curry has sky-high scoring potential on a nightly basis because of his 3-point shot volume. He’s shooting 39.2% from deep, leading the NBA in makes (4.6) and attempts (11.6).

The Timberwolves don’t typically give up much on the perimeter, allowing the fourth-fewest attempted 3s per game.

But Curry is going to get his shots up, as his history against the T-wolves indicates.

Key stat: Curry has 30+ points and 11+ attempted 3s in each of his past four full games against the Timberwolves (excluding his injury-shortened playoff matchup last year, when he had 13 points in 13 minutes).

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Best NBA picks

Black over 15.5 points (+100): Though Black can be a streaky shooter, it feels like a no-brainer to bet the over on this number given his elevated opportunity these days.

• Black joined the Orlando Magic’s starting lineup for good on Dec. 9 and has averaged 18.7 points in 19 games since.

• The third-year point guard is 13-6 vs. this prop in that span.

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Black has attempted 10+ shots in every game since Dec. 9, with a typical volume of 13-16 (and as high as 24). He’s not shy about shooting.

Tonight, he’ll face a Cleveland Cavaliers team that is nothing special on defence (14th in defensive rating). Against all but the most daunting defensive matchups, I’m backing him on this line.

NBA player prop predictions

Giddey 25+ points/assists (+114): Giddey returned from an 11-game absence on Thursday and, despite coming off the bench, provided an immediate jolt to the Bulls’ lineup.

The fifth-year player had 21 points and five assists in 26 minutes, shooting at a 7-for-13 clip.

He might not be back to his typical low-30s minute total tonight, but he should continue moving in that direction. And the closer he is to that workload, the more I’ll be bullish on this number.

-> See tonight’s NBA moneyline odds, spreads & game totals

Giddey is averaging career-high marks this season in points (19.3) and assists (8.9). That equates to 28.2 PA. He is 19-12 vs. this prop.

Given how well his return to action went, Giddey doesn’t seem far from being at full strength. There’s tons of value in this line.

NBA prop picks made at 10:20 a.m. ET on Jan. 24, 2026.

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RJ Barrett is questionable to return to the Toronto Raptors’ lineup on Friday night, and his possible availability has influenced the prop bets in this +360 parlay.

The pregame narrative: Barrett (ankle) has missed seven straight games but is expected back either tonight or Sunday. If he returns, he’ll look to help Toronto win a third straight game on its West Coast trip, with a pesky Portland Trail Blazers squad on the other side.

Check out my same-game parlay Raptors vs. Trail Blazers predictions for Jan. 23, featuring Barrett and Scottie Barnes.

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Raptors vs. Trail Blazers predictions

SGP: Barrett 15+ points | Barnes under 8.5 rebounds | Trail Blazers +5.5 (+360)

Barrett 15+ points (-182): We can’t expect Barrett to be at full strength tonight, but he won’t have to be to hit this scoring milestone.

The sharpshooting wing is averaging 19.6 points this season and is 19-4 vs. this prop. Last season, he scored 18 points on 9-of-18 shooting in his lone matchup against Portland.

Earlier this year, Barrett was on the shelf for 15 games and scored just 12 points in his return. He was 5 of 13 from the floor in that game, though, and that type of shot volume would be enough for me to like his chances at cashing this bet.

Also, this has only been a seven-game layoff for Barrett. So maybe the easing-in process won’t need to be as significant.

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According to Fantasy Pros, the Blazers allow the eighth-most points per game to opposing small forwards.

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NBA SGP picks

Barnes under 8.5 rebounds (-109): Barrett averages 5.0 rebounds per game, so his return to the lineup would likely cause a dip in Barnes’ rebounding output.

With or without Barrett, though, I think this is good value to bet the under on Barnes.

• Barnes is averaging 8.2 RPG this season. He has gone under 8.5 boards in 25 of 45 games (55.6%).

• In January, the under is 9-1 and Barnes is averaging just 6.8 RPG.

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Portland ranks seventh in the NBA in rebounding rate (51.2%) and has an absolute force on the glass in Donovan Clingan. The ex-UConn centre has been a monster over his past 20 games, bringing down 11.5 RPG.

Clingan had 11 boards when the Raps hosted the Blazers on Dec. 2; Barnes finished with seven.

Toronto vs. Portland ATS prediction

Trail Blazers +5.5 (-186): If the Trail Blazers weren’t playing on a back-to-back, I think they’d be favoured. But even at a rest disadvantage, I like them to cover this modestly-teased alt spread.

• Portland is 11-4-0 ATS as a home underdog this year, per Team Rankings.

• In their past 10 games, the Blazers rank eighth in the NBA in net rating (+5.9). In that span, they have wins over the Spurs, the Rockets (twice) and the Lakers.

Since the start of the 2023-24 season, Portland is 4-1 SU and ATS against Toronto. The Blazers have covered a +5.5 spread in each of those games, including a 121-118 loss in Toronto early last month.

Raptors vs. Trail Blazers predictions made at 2:40 p.m. on Jan. 23, 2026.

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Giannis Antetokounmpo is the star of Friday’s NBA prop picks.

Tonight’s NBA props narrative: As trade rumours swirl, Giannis remains at the centre of pretty much everything the Milwaukee Bucks are doing on offence (and defence, for that matter). Tonight, his assists prop really stands out against the Denver Nuggets.

Check out these NBA prop picks for Jan. 23, featuring predictions on Cam Spencer and Isaiah Joe.

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NBA prop picks Jan. 23

Best bet: Joe under 2.5 threes (-130)

The Oklahoma City Thunder have a bunch of guys who shoot a handful of 3s, rather than one or two dudes who are chucking up a ton.

Joe, one of seven OKC players averaging between 3.6 and 5.5 attempted 3s per night, is arguably the best in the group. He’s shooting 40.8% on 5.4 attempts.

That’s great, but it only equates to 2.2 makes per game. And Joe has been cashing in at an even lower volume lately.

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Over his past 18 games, Joe is averaging 1.5 makes on 4.1 attempts (37.0 3PT%). At a line of 2.5 threes, the under is 16-2.

In that 18-game span, Joe has attempted five or fewer 3s in 15 games. That sum of shot attempts is rarely going to get him over this total.

This line almost seems too good to be true, especially considering the matchup.

Key stat: Tonight, Joe faces an Indiana Pacers squad that allows the fewest 3s per game on the second-lowest 3PT% (32.9).

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Best NBA picks

Giannis over 6.5 assists (-117): For a guy who’s averaging 5.6 assists per game, this line might seem like it’s asking for too much.

But tonight’s matchup, along with the Bucks’ roster situation, makes it seem like a perfectly doable target.

• Giannis will face the Nuggets, who are still without Nikola Jokic. Denver has allowed the second-most assists per game to power forwards, according to Fantasy Pros.

• In his past three games vs. the Nuggets, Giannis has 23 total assists. That includes an 11-assist performance against them in Denver earlier this month.

• Milwaukee will play without Kevin Porter Jr., who’s been their primary passer this season.

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This season, Giannis is second only to Porter in assists per game and potential assists per game (i.e., passes that lead directly to shots).

Although the Greek Freak is Milwaukee’s main scoring option, he should be doing plenty of distributing, too.

NBA player prop predictions

Spencer over 8.5 assists (-103): Ja Morant is out tonight, which should spring Spencer back into the Memphis Grizzlies’ starting lineup.

That makes a huge difference, as evidenced by Spencer’s starter/reserve splits:

• Starter: 30.8 minutes, 9.3 assists
• Reserve: 21.4 minutes, 4.1 assists

In his past three games as a starter, Spencer went 3-0 vs. this prop while posting 35 total assists.

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The New Orleans Pelicans have a brutal defence, ranking 27th in defensive rating and 29th in opponent assists per game. Spencer should be wheeling and dealing again.

NBA prop picks made at 10 a.m. ET on Jan. 23, 2026.

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