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NBA playoff parlay picks April 19: Bet on Pistons to score in bunches, Lakers to beat Timberwolves

The first round of the NBA playoffs begin on Saturday, and I’ve built a +329 parlay that covers most of the action.

The pregame narrative: It’s been a while since the Los Angeles Clippers have faced the Denver Nuggets, and I think the Clips are positioned well to have a strong result in the series opener. I’m also taking the over on the Detroit Pistons’ team total and am backing the Los Angeles Lakers to win.

Check out the full NBA parlay picks for postseason action on April 19.

NBA parlay picks

Parlay: Pistons over 106.5 points | Clippers +5.5 | Lakers ML (+330)

Pistons over 106.5 points (-125): The Pistons’ epic turnaround this season started at the top of the roster, with Cade Cunningham rounding into all-star form.

Cunningham posted career-highs in points per game (26.1) and effective field goal percentage (52.1%) this year.

He’s cruising right now, too, with 25-plus points in 12 of 14 games since March 3 — averaging 29.8 PPG in that span.

It’s obviously helpful having a certified bucket-getter when you want to bet the over on a team total. And this is a total Cunningham and the Pistons are accustomed to clearing.

Detroit averaged 115.5 points in the regular season, clearing a 106.5-point total in 62 of 82 games (75.6%).
The Pistons have scored 115+ points in three straight against the Knicks, including their most recent matchup on April 10.

New York is known to play hard with a short bench, but the defence hasn’t been elite this season. The Knicks, who’ve allowed 111.7 PPG, rank 13th in defensive rating.

Other picks

Clippers +5.5 (-182): The Clippers and Nuggets split their season series, 2-2, but they haven’t seen each other since early January. And Kawhi Leonard didn’t play in any of those games.

Leonard has kicked into overdrive recently, helping the Clippers to a 15-4 record in games he’s played since the start of March.

In that span, the Klaw has averaged 25.7 points (with 42.9% 3-point shooting), 7.1 rebounds and 1.9 steals. He’s going to be a problem.

L.A. enters this matchup in much better form, going 15-2 SU (13-4 ATS) in its past 17 games. Denver, meanwhile, is 7-15 ATS since the start of March.

I’d rather bank points with the team playing much better basketball lately (and one that didn’t just hand its head coach a pink slip).

Lakers moneyline (-182): After leading the Dallas Mavericks to the NBA Finals a season ago, Luka Doncic embarks on a new postseason journey with his new team. And all I’m looking for is a win.

Doncic’s Lakers beat the Minnesota Timberwolves at home on Feb. 27, jumping out to a 33-17 lead in the first quarter and never relinquishing it.

L.A. is 31-10 at home this season, including a 25-7 mark as the favourite, per Team Rankings.

Minnesota went 7-7 SU as a road underdog this season, which is actually a very impressive record. But against a Lakers team with both of its megastars healthy, I expect the Timberwolves to come up short.

Picks made at 8:20 a.m. on 04/17/2025.

NBA playoff parlay picks April 19: Bet on Pistons to score in bunches, Lakers to beat Timberwolves

The first round of the NBA playoffs begin on Saturday, and I’ve built a +329 parlay that covers most of the action.

The pregame narrative: It’s been a while since the Los Angeles Clippers have faced the Denver Nuggets, and I think the Clips are positioned well to have a strong result in the series opener. I’m also taking the over on the Detroit Pistons’ team total and am backing the Los Angeles Lakers to win.

Check out the full NBA parlay picks for postseason action on April 19.

NBA parlay picks

Parlay: Pistons over 106.5 points | Clippers +5.5 | Lakers ML (+329)

Embed: #112599

Pistons over 106.5 points (-114): The Pistons’ epic turnaround this season started at the top of the roster, with Cade Cunningham rounding into all-star form.

Cunningham posted career-highs in points per game (26.1) and effective field goal percentage (52.1%) this year.

He’s cruising right now, too, with 25-plus points in 12 of 14 games since March 3 — averaging 29.8 PPG in that span.

It’s obviously helpful having a certified bucket-getter when you want to bet the over on a team total. And this is a total Cunningham and the Pistons are accustomed to clearing.

Detroit averaged 115.5 points in the regular season, clearing a 106.5-point total in 62 of 82 games (75.6%).
The Pistons have scored 115+ points in three straight against the Knicks, including their most recent matchup on April 10.

New York is known to play hard with a short bench, but the defence hasn’t been elite this season. The Knicks, who’ve allowed 111.7 PPG, rank 13th in defensive rating.

Other picks

Clippers +5.5 (-200): The Clippers and Nuggets split their season series, 2-2, but they haven’t seen each other since early January. And Kawhi Leonard didn’t play in any of those games.

Leonard has kicked into overdrive recently, helping the Clippers to a 15-4 record in games he’s played since the start of March.

In that span, the Klaw has averaged 25.7 points (with 42.9% 3-point shooting), 7.1 rebounds and 1.9 steals. He’s going to be a problem.

L.A. enters this matchup in much better form, going 15-2 SU (13-4 ATS) in its past 17 games. Denver, meanwhile, is 7-15 ATS since the start of March.

I’d rather bank points with the team playing much better basketball lately (and one that didn’t just hand its head coach a pink slip).

Lakers moneyline (-195): After leading the Dallas Mavericks to the NBA Finals a season ago, Luka Doncic embarks on a new postseason journey with his new team. And all I’m looking for is a win.

Doncic’s Lakers beat the Minnesota Timberwolves at home on Feb. 27, jumping out to a 33-17 lead in the first quarter and never relinquishing it.

L.A. is 31-10 at home this season, including a 25-7 mark as the favourite, per Team Rankings.

Minnesota went 7-7 SU as a road underdog this season, which is actually a very impressive record. But against a Lakers team with both of its megastars healthy, I expect the Timberwolves to come up short.

Picks made at 4:03 p.m. on 04/16/2025.

Heat vs. Bulls play-in SGP predictions April 16: Bet on Herro and Adebayo to produce in losing effort

The Miami Heat and Chicago Bulls meet in Wednesday’s Eastern Conference play-in game.

The pregame narrative: The winner of this matchup goes on to play the Atlanta Hawks with a chance at the playoffs. The loser goes home. Chicago has been the better team lately, and I expect it to advance on home court. Prop bets on Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo round out this +375 wager.

Check out my Heat vs. Bulls play-in SGP predictions for April 16.

Heat vs. Bulls predictions

Parlay: Bulls ML | Herro over 23.5 points | Adebayo 4+ assists (+375)

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Bulls moneyline (-117): It seemed like Chicago was tanking its season when it traded away then-leading scorer Zach LaVine on Feb. 3. The team’s play reflected that, as the Bulls dropped seven of their next nine.

But since that skid, Chicago has been one of the league’s best teams:

16-7 record
+4.6 net rating (8th)
111.5 defensive rating (10th)

The Bulls won 10 of 13 games to close the season and secure a play-in spot. That includes wins over the Los Angeles Lakers (twice), Denver Nuggets, Sacramento Kings and Heat.

Miami, meanwhile, limped into the play-in with losses in four of its final six.

Chicago is 8-2 in its last 10 games against Miami (3-0 this season).

NBA SGP legs

Herro over 23.5 points (-155): I like Herro to clear this leg for a few reasons.

The Bulls play at the second-fastest pace in the NBA and should dictate the tempo on their home court.

That’s good news for us, considering they also allow the second-most points per game to opposing point guards, according to Fantasy Pros.

Herro scored 30 points in his last outing against Chicago and is averaging 24.0 PPG since the all-star break.

With Miami’s season on the line, I expect Herro to over-index in a plus matchup.

Adebayo 4+ assists (-275): Adebayo is sneakily one of the league’s best passing big men.

He’s averaging 4.3 assists per game this season, fourth among centres behind Nikola Jokic, Domantas Sabonis and Alperen Sengun.

Adebayo has been reliable against this line, clearing it in 49 of 78 games (62.9%). That includes seven of his last eight heading into the playoffs.

Ideally, I’ll be double-dipping on some assists from Adebayo to Herro.

Heat vs. Bulls predictions made at 12:00 p.m. ET 04/16/2025.

Mavericks vs. Kings play-in SGP predictions April 16: Look for LaVine to stay hot, fade Lively

The Sacramento Kings and Dallas Mavericks fight to keep their seasons alive on Wednesday night in the Western Conference’s 9-vs-10 matchup of the NBA play-in tournament.

The pregame narrative: Dallas has been injury-riddled for most of the past few weeks, and I’d rather not mess around with picking a side tonight. Instead, this +310 SGP has milestone prop bets for Domantas Sabonis, Zach LaVine and Dereck Lively.

Check out my Mavericks vs. Kings SGP predictions for April 16.

Mavericks vs. Kings predictions

Parlay: Sabonis 6+ assists | LaVine 3+ threes | Lively under 5.5 rebounds (+310)

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Sabonis 6+ assists (-175): The best passing big man in the NBA is Nikola Jokic, but Sabonis isn’t that far off.

And for a guy who averages 6.0 assists on the season, this is a mark I expect Sabonis to hit based on the matchup.

Dallas allows the seventh-most assists per game to opposing centres, per Betting Pros.

Sabonis has 7+ assists vs. Dallas in four straight matchups (since March 2024).

This season, Sabonis has 6+ assists in 39 of 70 games (55.7%).

With De’Aaron Fox traded away and Malik Monk ruled out, Sabonis is the clear-cut No. 1 option to facilitate offence for the Kings.

NBA SGP legs

LaVine 3+ threes (-182): If Sabonis is doing his job as a passer, LaVine will hopefully be on the receiving end of some good looks.

And he deserves them.

LaVine is on fire from 3-point range over his past 10 games:

51.9 3PT%
4.0 makes
7.7 attempts
3+ threes in six straight

The Mavericks tend not to allow a ton of 3-point attempts, but who am I to fly in the face of this hot streak?

Even if the volume isn’t always high, Dallas does allow the 12th-highest opponent 3PT% in the NBA (36.3). LaVine went 4-for-5 from deep against the Mavs when he last faced them on March 3.

Lively under 5.5 rebounds (-150): Lively missed 36 games this season with an ankle injury, and his production since returning at the start of this month hasn’t been very encouraging.

The second-year centre has gone under 5.5 rebounds in three of four games. He played fewer than 20 minutes in each of those matchups.

At 7-foot-1, Lively will be the tallest player on the court tonight. But his minutes seem to be capped, and he’s competing against a pair of truly elite rebounders (Sabonis, Anthony Davis).

Lively ranks 17th in offensive rebounding rate (12.2%), but the Kings have the second-highest defensive rebounding rate in the NBA.

Mavericks vs. Kings predictions made at 11:24 a.m. ET 04/16/2025.

Best NBA play-in props April 16: Bet on Tyler Herro, Josh Giddey and Anthony Davis

I’ve got three prop bets for Wednesday’s win-or-go-home NBA play-in slate.

The pregame narrative: The action begins in Miami when the Heat host the Chicago Bulls. I like each team’s point guard, Tyler Herro and Josh Giddey, to show up. Later on, back Anthony Davis to torch the Sacramento Kings..

Check out the best NBA prop bets for the play-in tournament matchups on April 16.

NBA prop bets

Best Bet: Herro over 24.5 points (-120)

Herro has made a name for himself as a high-volume, high-accuracy 3-point shooter. Cashing in on a bunch of deep balls would be nice for this wager, but it probably won’t happen against the Bulls.

Chicago has held opponents to the second-lowest 3-point percentage this season (34.4%)… so why am I taking the over?

Herro has tapered off his 3-point usage since the all-star break, which also coincided with Jimmy Butler’s departure, and his overall scoring numbers haven’t dipped:

Pre-ASG (51 games): 24.6 PPG, 9.7 three-point attempts/game
Post-ASG (26 games): 24.0 PPG, 6.7 three-point attempts/game

The point guard is finding ways to get to the basket and attack in the mid-range, and that’s where I expect him to do damage tonight.

Chicago plays at the second-fastest pace in the NBA and allows the second-most points per game to opposing PGs, according to Fantasy Pros.

This should still be a smash spot for Miami’s top dog.

Key stat: Herro scored 30 points in his last game against the Bulls on 13-of-26 shooting (2-of-7 from deep).

Best NBA picks

Giddey over 1.5 threes (-106): Giddey does it all for the Bulls, and you could make a solid argument to back him on any prop market on Wednesday.

But I like this value for him to can a pair of 3s for a few reasons:

Giddey is shooting 45.1% from deep since February first. In that span, he is 17-7 against this line.

Miami is giving up the most 3-pointers per game to opposing point guards (3.54).

Giddey doesn’t take a ton of 3s, but is hyper-efficient. He’s cleared this line in all three games against the Heat this year on combined 8-of-15 shooting.

Davis over 25.5 points (-130): Do Mavericks fans wish Luka Doncic was still playing in Dallas? Yes. Is Davis still a top-10 player in the NBA when healthy? Also yes.

The Brow has been hampered by injuries since the trade, only playing in nine games for the Mavs. In those contests, he’s averaging 20.0 points and is 2-7 against this line.

That’s not exactly a great sell, but Davis is on a four-game stretch where he dropped 23, 13, 27 and 34 points.

And on Wednesday, he gets to play a Kings team which allowed the second-most points per game to opposing power forwards this season.

Barring another injury, I love AD’s chances of having a game.

NBA prop picks made at 2:27 p.m. ET on 04/15/2025.

Best NBA play-in props April 16: Bet on Tyler Herro, Josh Giddey and Anthony Davis

I’ve got three prop bets for Wednesday’s win-or-go-home NBA play-in slate.

The pregame narrative: The action begins in Miami when the Heat host the Chicago Bulls. I like each team’s point guard, Tyler Herro and Josh Giddey, to show up. Later on, back Anthony Davis to torch the Sacramento Kings..

Check out the best NBA prop bets for the play-in tournament matchups on April 16.

NBA prop bets

Best Bet: Herro over 24.5 points (-121)

Embed: #112576

Herro has made a name for himself as a high-volume, high-accuracy 3-point shooter. Cashing in on a bunch of deep balls would be nice for this wager, but it probably won’t happen against the Bulls.

Chicago has held opponents to the second-lowest 3-point percentage this season (34.4%)… so why am I taking the over?

Herro has tapered off his 3-point usage since the all-star break, which also coincided with Jimmy Butler’s departure, and his overall scoring numbers haven’t dipped:

Pre-ASG (51 games): 24.6 PPG, 9.7 three-point attempts/game
Post-ASG (26 games): 24.0 PPG, 6.7 three-point attempts/game

The point guard is finding ways to get to the basket and attack in the mid-range, and that’s where I expect him to do damage tonight.

Chicago plays at the second-fastest pace in the NBA and allows the second-most points per game to opposing PGs, according to Fantasy Pros.

This should still be a smash spot for Miami’s top dog.

Key stat: Herro scored 30 points in his last game against the Bulls on 13-of-26 shooting (2-of-7 from deep).

Best NBA picks

Giddey over 1.5 threes (+108): Giddey does it all for the Bulls, and you could make a solid argument to back him on any prop market on Wednesday.

But I like this plus-money value for him to can a pair of 3s for a few reasons:

Giddey is shooting 45.1% from deep since February first. In that span, he is 17-7 against this line.

Miami is giving up the most 3-pointers per game to opposing point guards (3.54).

Giddey doesn’t take a ton of 3s, but is hyper-efficient. He’s cleared this line in all three games against the Heat this year on combined 8-of-15 shooting.

Davis over 26.5 points (-120): Do Mavericks fans wish Luka Doncic was still playing in Dallas? Yes. Is Davis still a top-10 player in the NBA when healthy? Also yes.

The Brow has been hampered by injuries since the trade, only playing in nine games for the Mavs. In those contests, he’s averaging 20.0 points and is 2-7 against this line.

That’s not exactly a great sell, but Davis is on a four-game stretch where he dropped 23, 13, 27 and 34 points.

And on Wednesday, he gets to play a Kings team which allowed the second-most points per game to opposing power forwards this season.

Barring another injury, I love AD’s chances of having a game.

NBA prop picks made at 2:27 p.m. ET on 04/15/2025.

Grizzlies vs. Warriors play-in SGP predictions April 15: Target Steph Curry at +330

The first of two Western Conference play-in games takes place on Tuesday between the Memphis Grizzlies and Golden State Warriors.

The pregame narrative: I think the Grizzlies can keep this game competitive so I’ll back them on an alternate spread. This +325 SGP also includes picks on Desmond Bane and Steph Curry.

Check out my Grizzlies vs. Warriors SGP predictions for April 15.

Grizzlies vs. Warriors predictions

Parlay: Grizzlies +10.5 | Bane over 2.5 threes | Curry over 26.5 points (+330)

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Grizzlies +10.5 (-210): There is no easy matchup in the West. That will be showcased when the Grizzlies (48-34) visit the Warriors (48-34) for the conference’s first play-in game.

Golden State played its best basketball down the stretch. The team went 23-7 with Jimmy Butler in the lineup following the trade deadline.

But I can’t ignore how good Memphis is, especially when healthy. Let’s look at some of its team stats and where they rank in the NBA:

121.1 points per game (2nd)
118.5 offensive rating (6th)
113.7 defensive rating (9th)

The Grizzlies also have a positive away record (22-19), which is nice to see for any team in the postseason.

I’m not sure Memphis can pull off the upset here, but this enough points to get behind on the away side.

NBA SGP legs

Bane over 2.5 threes (-121): There was no one more consistent for the Grizzlies than Bane.

He averaged 19.2 points per game this season on 48.4% from the field (39.2% from 3).

Bane closed the season shooting a high volume of triples, going 6-2 against this line over the last eight games.

He took at least five attempts in all those contests and seems to fall more into a catch-and-shoot role when his point guard, Ja Morant, is healthy.

Memphis plays at the fastest pace in the league, so there should be an uptick for most players on offence, including Bane.

In an April 1 meeting with the Warriors, Bane shot 4-for-10 from deep.

Curry over 26.5 points (-148): Who better to bet on than Curry in the playoffs?

He’ll surely take advantage of the Grizzlies’ fast pace as he’s done in the past.

In that recent meeting between these two teams, ‘Chef’ Curry dropped 51 points on 16-of-31 shooting. A similarly inflated amount of shot attempts would do wonders for this pick.

On Sunday, the superstar guard scored 36 points against the Los Angeles Clippers in what was the closest thing there is to a playoff game during the regular season.

He shot 50% from the field and went 7-for-12 from deep.

The last time Curry was in the playoffs was 2022-23, and he averaged 30.5 points in 13 games played.

Grizzlies vs. Warriors predictions made at 11:24 a.m. ET 04/15/2025.

Hawks vs. Magic play-in SGP predictions April 15: Bet Orlando to win behind Paolo Banchero

The NBA’s play-in begins on Tuesday when the Orlando Magic host the Atlanta Hawks.

The pregame narrative: A win guarantees either team the 7-seed and a battle with the Boston Celtics in Round 1. Paolo Banchero has been a force down the stretch for Orlando, and I expect him to show out once again in a winning effort.

Check out my Hawks vs. Magic play-in SGP predictions for April 15.

Hawks vs. Magic predictions

Parlay: Magic moneyline | Banchero 30+ points | Daniels over 10.5 rebounds/assists (+380)

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Magic moneyline (-200): Orlando played Atlanta on Sunday and lost 117-105. But both teams had their playoff seeding locked in. With starters rested, that result should be thrown out the window.

The Magic had won 11 of 15 games before that, with wins against the Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, Los Angeles Lakers and Hawks.

I think it’s fair to say Orlando is a good team and wouldn’t be in this position if Banchero and Franz Wagner were healthy all season.

On home court, I like its chances of handling an Hawks team with sketchy defensive tendencies.

Atlanta went 12-18 straight up as a road underdog this season and was 21st in road defensive rating (115.4).

NBA SGP legs

Banchero 30+ points (-122): Banchero has feasted against the Hawks and played at an MVP-calibre pace to close out the season — this leg seems like a smash play to me.

Banchero averaged 29.7 points on 49.2% shooting in his last 20 games. In that span, he went 11-9 against this line.

The power forward has scored 30+ points in four of his last five games against the Hawks.

Atlanta allows the most points per game to the PF postion, according to Fantasy Pros. Banchero is by far the Magic’s best player and I expect him to completely take over this game.

Daniels over 10.5 rebounds/assists (-125): Dyson Daniels is a burgeoning defensive superstar and he’s found ways to produce on offence, too.

The 6-foot-7 guard averaged 6.8 rebounds and 5.2 assists following the all-star break, healthily above this line. It’s worth noting the Magic are a great defensive team, especially at home, which is baked into this price.

Still, I like Daniels to go over this mark.

He cleared this in eight of his last 10 games to close out the regular season and is 1-2 against this line vs. the Magic since joining Atlanta (landing on 10 rebounds/assists in one game).

Hawks vs. Magic predictions made at 10:40 a.m. ET 04/15/2025.

Best NBA play-in prop bets April 15: Bet on Banchero, Edey to show up in postseason play

Get set for Tuesday’s NBA play-in tournament doubleheader with a trio of prop bets.

The pregame narrative: In the late game, I like Zach Edey to stay dominant as a rebounder the way he has the past two weeks. In the earlier matchup, fade Trae Young and look for a big night from Paolo Banchero.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for the play-in tournament matchups on April 15.

NBA prop bets

Best Bet: Young under 10.5 assists (-138)

Fading the NBA assists leader in a playoff-calibre game? Sure, let’s give it a go.

Young averaged 11.6 assists per game this season, which makes the under on this total look like the wrong move. But the context of Tuesday’s matchup means a great deal to me.

The Orlando Magic love nothing more than to play a slow, grind-it-out game where physicality and defensive responsibility trump inflated box scores and offensive pizzazz.

Orlando plays at the slowest pace in the NBA (96.51 possessions/game) and owns the second-best defensive rating (109.1 points/100 possessions).

Fewer possessions means fewer assist opportunities. And the defensive rating tells us that those possessions tend not to come easy.

Young finished with 10 assists when he faced the Magic last week, but he’s gone under the 9.5-assist mark in 4 of 6 games since the start of last season.

The under on this prop is 3-1 in Young’s road matchups against Orlando.

I know Young averaged an NBA-best 20.7 potential assists this year, and thus would need only half the shots to drop on an average night for this bet to flop.

But I’m buying in on the Magic upholding its stylistic reputation at home in a meaningful game.

Key stat: Orlando allows the fewest assists per game to its opponents (22.8).

Best NBA picks

Banchero over 30.5 points (-112): Banchero is the Magic’s offence. That statement is only slightly hyperbolic.

His 33.0% usage rate ranks fourth in the NBA, behind Giannis Antetokounmpo, LaMelo Ball and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Banchero has attempted 20+ shots in 29 of 46 games this season.

The No. 1 overall pick from 2022 is known for his volume-based production rather than his efficiency. But that’s fine with me if the bet cashes.

Banchero has hit the 30-point milestone in nine of his past 14 games while shooting 47.6% from the field on 22.1 shot attempts.

He has also cashed this bet in four of his past five games against Atlanta (since January 2024).

Edey over 10.5 rebounds (-125): Will the Grizzlies go small to match the Warriors or try to use their size mismatch as an advantage? I’m hoping it’s the former.

Edey, at 7-foot-4, is playing some inspired basketball around the rim this month. He’s averaging 15.7 rebounds in six games.

That includes a 16-rebound performance against Golden State on April 1. No matter who the Warriors throw at him down low, Edey is bigger and will have a chance to dominate.

The Warriors allow the third-most rebounds per game to opposing centres (16.29), per Betting Pros.

NBA prop picks made at 4:00 p.m. ET on 04/14/2025.

Best NBA play-in prop bets April 15: Bet on Banchero, Edey to show up in postseason play

Get set for Tuesday’s NBA play-in tournament doubleheader with a trio of prop bets.

The pregame narrative: In the late game, I like Zach Edey to stay dominant as a rebounder the way he has the past two weeks. In the earlier matchup, fade Trae Young and look for a big night from Paolo Banchero.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for the play-in tournament matchups on April 15.

NBA prop bets

Best Bet: Young under 9.5 assists (+106)

Embed: #112550

Fading the NBA assists leader in a playoff-calibre game? Sure, let’s give it a go.

Young averaged 11.6 assists per game this season, which makes the under on this total look like the wrong move. But the context of Tuesday’s matchup means a great deal to me.

The Orlando Magic love nothing more than to play a slow, grind-it-out game where physicality and defensive responsibility trump inflated box scores and offensive pizzazz.

Orlando plays at the slowest pace in the NBA (96.51 possessions/game) and owns the second-best defensive rating (109.1 points/100 possessions).

Fewer possessions means fewer assist opportunities. And the defensive rating tells us that those possessions tend not to come easy.

Young finished with 10 assists when he faced the Magic last week, but he’s gone under the 9.5-assist mark in 4 of 6 games since the start of last season.

The under on this prop is 3-1 in Young’s road matchups against Orlando.

I know Young averaged an NBA-best 20.7 potential assists this year, and thus would need only half the shots to drop on an average night for this bet to flop.

But I’m buying in on the Magic upholding its stylistic reputation at home in a meaningful game.

Key stat: Orlando allows the fewest assists per game to its opponents (22.8).

Best NBA picks

Banchero over 29.5 points (-113): Banchero is the Magic’s offence. That statement is only slightly hyperbolic.

His 33.0% usage rate ranks fourth in the NBA, behind Giannis Antetokounmpo, LaMelo Ball and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Banchero has attempted 20+ shots in 29 of 46 games this season.

The No. 1 overall pick from 2022 is known for his volume-based production rather than his efficiency. But that’s fine with me if the bet cashes.

Banchero has hit the 30-point milestone in nine of his past 14 games while shooting 47.6% from the field on 22.1 shot attempts.

He has also cashed this bet in four of his past five games against Atlanta (since January 2024).

Edey over 10.5 rebounds (-120): Will the Grizzlies go small to match the Warriors or try to use their size mismatch as an advantage? I’m hoping it’s the former.

Edey, at 7-foot-4, is playing some inspired basketball around the rim this month. He’s averaging 15.7 rebounds in six games.

That includes a 16-rebound performance against Golden State on April 1. No matter who the Warriors throw at him down low, Edey is bigger and will have a chance to dominate.

The Warriors allow the third-most rebounds per game to opposing centres (16.29), per Betting Pros.

NBA prop picks made at 4:00 p.m. ET on 04/14/2025.