The Milwaukee Bucks get a much-needed shot in the arm when Damian Lillard returns to take on the Indiana Pacers in Game 2.
The pregame narrative: Lillard hasn’t played since March 18, and Milwaukee got smoked without him in the series opener. Bet on the Bucks to cover an alternate spread and Lillard to score in this +310 SGP, which also features Indiana’s Pascal Siakam.
Check out my Bucks vs. Pacers play-in SGP predictions for April 22.
Bucks vs. Pacers predictions
Parlay: Bucks +8.5 | Lillard 20+ points | Siakam 6+ rebounds (+310)
Bucks +8.5 (-220): Will Lillard’s presence be enough to turn the tide of this series in Milwaukee’s favour? It’s hard to say, but I’m banking on the Bucks at least keeping Game 2 close.
Milwaukee went 8-6 with Lillard following the all-star break, covering a +6.5 spread in 11 of those games.
That includes a pair of contests against the Pacers, one of which the Bucks won (126-119 at home) and one they narrowly lost (115-114 on the road).
Lillard’s defence is sub-par, and there’s no sugarcoating that. But the star point guard is a bona fide bucket-getter who has torched Indiana in the past.
The Pacers are a mediocre 14-16-2 ATS as home favourites this year, while the Bucks are 10-8-1 as road underdogs.
Milwaukee also covered this number in four straight games against Indiana prior to Game 1.
NBA SGP legs
Lillard 20+ points (+110): Back to Lillard, who was sidelined since March with a blood clot in his calf.
Bucks general manager Jon Horst said, “We’re thrilled for Dame … every step of (his) recovery has been at the direction of world-class medical professionals and their specific and strict protocols that have allowed for Dame’s safe and healthy return to play.”
That’s encouraging to hear, and leads me to believe he’ll be near 100% for the contest.
Lillard played in four games against the Pacers in last year’s postseason, and he blew past this line each time.
- Game 1: 35 points, 11-of-24 shooting
- Game 2: 34 points, 10-of-21 shooting
- Game 3: 28 points, 6-of-20 shooting
- Game 6: 28 points, 7-of-16 shooting
It might take a few shots for Lillard to shake the rust off, but this milestone will be attainable if he has anywhere near the type of shot volume from the 2023-24 postseason.
Siakam 6+ rebounds (-250): Siakam had himself a night on Sunday, scoring 25 points on 10-of-15 shooting in the win.
But I want to tap into his abilities as a rebounder for Tuesday’s matchup.
The former Toronto Raptor is averaging 8.1 rebounds in his last 10 games against the Bucks.
- 7+ rebounds nine times
- 8+ rebounds five times
Myles Turner, Indiana’s centre, is averaging just 6.0 rebounds per game since the beginning of April. There’s no reason to believe Siakam’s production on the glass will taper off.
Bucks vs. Pacers predictions made at 12:05 p.m. ET 04/22/2025.