Category: NBA

A 1-1 series between the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers shifts to SoCal.

The pregame narrative: I expect the Clippers to win tonight and for Norman Powell to shrug off a couple of subpar performances. On Denver’s side, back Nikola Jokic to can a pair of 3s.

Check out my Nuggets vs. Clippers playoff SGP predictions for Game 3 on Thursday, April 24.

Nuggets vs. Clippers predictions

Parlay: Clippers ML | Jokic 2+ threes | Powell 15+ points (+250)

Clippers moneyline (-215): Finally, the Clippers get to host the Nuggets. It’s been a while.

L.A. is 3-3 against Denver this season, but only one of those games was played in the shiny, new Intuit Dome — and that was all the way back on Dec. 1.

The Clippers wielded quite a home-court advantage in their first season outside the Laker-sized shadow that Crypto.com Arena provided.

They went 30-11 in home games, which includes a 24-4 record as home favourites.

Things really ratcheted up down the stretch, as the Clips went 11-1 at home from March 1 onward. They owned an NBA-best +15.4 home net rating in that span.

L.A. beat Denver at home in December, 126-122, as a 4-point underdog.

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NBA SGP legs

Jokic 2+ threes (-165): Jokic found new heights as a scorer this season, and that has a lot to do with his willingness to shoot more from 3-point range.

Jokic set career-highs across the board beyond the arc, averaging 2.0 threes on 4.7 attempts (41.7 3PT%).

Michael Porter Jr. is dealing with a shoulder injury that has him listed as questionable for tonight. If he’s absent — or even limited — that could mean more 3s for Jokic.

The three-time MVP is 16-for-33 (48.5%) from beyond the arc against the Clippers this season, cashing this bet in four of five games.

That includes a 4-for-8 performance from deep in Game 2.

Powell 15+ points (-200): Powell has whiffed on this line in both games so far, but he wasn’t far off. And he’s still taking plenty of shots to keep this milestone within range.

The ex-Raptor is just 10-for-26 (38.5 FG%) in this series, totalling 12 and 13 points, respectively, in Games 1 and 2.

• Powell averaged 21.8 PPG this season and hit the 15-point mark in 47 of 60 games.

• In four regular-season games against Denver, he averaged 27.8 PPG and went 4-0 against this prop.

Powell is behind Kawhi Leonard and James Harden in the offensive pecking order, but there are still enough opportunities for him to produce.

All it’ll take is a slight bounce back in the efficiency department.

Nuggets vs. Clippers predictions made at 12:00 p.m. ET 04/24/2025.

A trio of guards make up my NBA prop bets for Thursday’s playoff tripleheader.

The pregame narrative: Jamal Murray has been solid for the Denver Nuggets, and he needs to keep that up in order for his squad to have a chance at moving on. The same goes for Jalen Brunson, while Desmond Bane is my favourite fade candidate right now.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for first-round playoff action on April 24.

NBA prop bets

Best Bet: Murray over 26.5 points/assists (-112)

I’m not one to doubt Nikola Jokic, but I don’t think his workload is sustainable.

Jokic played 46 minutes in Game 1 and 43 minutes in Game 2. He had never played 43-plus minutes in consecutive games in his NBA career before this series.

With that in mind, the Nuggets need as much (or more) from Murray as they’ve gotten so far.

Despite some so-so shooting in Game 1, Murray has put up strong enough numbers to cash this bet in both matchups:

• Game 1: 21 points (7-for-20), seven assists

• Game 2: 23 points (9-for-17), six assists

Jokic is the primary scorer, rebounder and facilitator for the Nuggets. He had an MVP-calibre season and will need to keep chugging along to give Denver a chance.

I just think the Nuggets will need to put a governor on him if they want a shot at a deep playoff run.

Murray averaged 27.4 points/assists during the regular season, so this number is within reach even if he doesn’t elevate his usage rate.

Key stat: Murray has cashed this bet in three consecutive games against the Clippers, and he’s averaging 27.0 PA against them this year.

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Best NBA picks

Bane under 2.5 threes (+117): I faded Bane at this number last time out, and it cashed. So of course I’m content to run it back with plus-money odds.

During the regular season, the Thunder allowed the NBA’s lowest opponent 3-point percentage (34.2%). So far in this series, they’ve held the Grizzlies to 16-of-65 (24.6%) shooting from deep.

Bane has now seen OKC six times and is shooting 27.5% beyond the arc. He’s just 5-for-25 from deep against the Thunder in the past four meetings.

Overall, Bane has gone under 2.5 threes in 44 of 71 games.

This is a great price to fade Bane in a brutal matchup.

Brunson over 28.5 points (-110): Whether all his points are ethically sourced or not, Brunson is putting up huge numbers on the offensive end, and I expect that to continue.

Brunson shot 12-for-27 in Games 1 and 2 and had 10-plus free-throw attempts in both games as well.

The whistle might be less friendly in Detroit, but the all-star guard is capable of getting buckets in a myriad of ways.

And nobody has to remind the Pistons.

In six matchups against Detroit this season, Brunson has averaged 30.7 PPG and cashed this bet five times.

NBA prop picks made at 9:45 a.m. ET on 04/24/2025.

Playoff basketball returns to Detroit on Thursday night, as the Pistons host the New York Knicks for Game 3 of their first-round series.

The pregame narrative: Can Cade Cunningham and the Pistons push ahead for a series lead? It’s possible, but I feel better about them at least keeping the game close. On New York’s side, look for a solid contribution from the ever-present Mikal Bridges.

Check out my Knicks vs. Pistons playoff SGP predictions for Game 3 on Thursday, April 24.

Knicks vs. Pistons predictions

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Parlay: Pistons +5.5 | Cunningham over 27.5 points | Bridges 15+ points (+275)

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Pistons +5.5 (-250): If you remember the “Goin’ To Work” era of Pistons basketball, you know how long it’s been since Detroit was relevant come playoff time.

Monday night’s win in New York marked Detroit’s first playoff victory since May 26, 2008. It’s been a long time coming, but Detroit is no longer an NBA doormat.

In what is the most anticipated Pistons home game since those early-2000s squads, I expect Detroit to at least hang tough.

• Detroit is 4-2 SU against the Knicks this season.

• The Pistons had an eight-point lead in the fourth quarter of Game 1 before a 21-0 run by the Knicks washed it away.

• Detroit is 11-8-1 ATS as a home underdog, per Team Rankings.

NBA SGP legs

Cunningham over 27.5 points (-125): Cunningham’s playoff debut was a bit messy, but he settled in for Game 2 and had a solid night.

The No. 1 overall pick from 2021 finished with a team-high 33 points on 11-of-21 shooting (10-for-12 from the free-throw line).

That’s now eight straight games for Cunningham with 20-plus shot attempts, which gives us a nice floor in terms of scoring opportunities.

In that eight-game sample, Cunningham has averaged 30.8 points.

The first-time all-star has also done plenty of solid work against the Knicks, cashing this bet in four of five matchups since December.

Bridges 15+ points (-180): Bridges, a seven-year vet, played more minutes this season than anyone else in the NBA. He’s not the first or even second scoring option for the Knicks, but he’s always around.

The 3-point stroke hasn’t been there for Bridges yet this series, as he’s just 3-for-13 from deep. Still, I see merit in this milestone.

• Bridges has 15+ points in 5 of 6 games vs. Detroit this season.

• Against all opponents, Bridges averaged 17.6 PPG.

• He has 15+ points in 16 of his past 21 games — and in four of the anomalies, he finished with exactly 14 points.

If the 3-point shooting turns around a bit, this should be a breeze. But I still like the play regardless.

Knicks vs. Pistons predictions made at 3:00 p.m. ET 04/23/2025.

The Cleveland Cavaliers’ offence was humming in Game 1 against the Miami Heat, and I expect more of the same in Game 2 on Wednesday night.

The pregame narrative: My +335 SGP includes a prop bet on Donovan Mitchell and an alt team total for the Cavaliers. I also like Tyler Herro to go under his projected assist total.

Check out my Heat vs. Cavaliers playoff SGP predictions for Game 2 on April 23.

Heat vs. Cavaliers predictions

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Parlay: Cavaliers over 110.5 points | Herro under 4.5 assists | Mitchell 3+ threes (+335)

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Cavaliers over 110.5 points (-157): Cleveland put up 121 points in the series opener, and that shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone. The Cavs averaged 121.9 points per game during the regular season, after all.

There are six Cleveland players who average 12.0 or more points, so the depth is phenomenal.

NBA Sixth Man of the Year finalist Ty Jerome demonstrated that depth in Game 1, going off for 28 points on 10-of-15 shooting.

Cleveland boasted the best offensive rating in the NBA this season (121.0) and cashed this bet in 35 of 41 home games.

Oh, and the Cavaliers have scored 112-plus points in all four matchups against the Heat this year.

NBA SGP legs

Herro under 4.5 assists (-106): Herro averaged 5.5 assists during the regular season, but his role as a passer started to shift once Davion Mitchell settled in.

Mitchell, who came over from the Toronto Raptors, has embraced the point guard role for a Miami team that had been operating on a facilitator-by-committee basis.

From March 17 through the end of the regular season (14 games), Herro took a clear back seat:

• Herro: 4.4 APG, 42.5 passes/game, 8.3 potential assists/game

• Mitchell: 6.3 APG, 52.4 passes/game, 10.6 potential assists/game

Including the postseason, Herro has gone under 4.5 assists in 12 of 16 games.

Also, Cleveland allows the third-fewest assists to opposing shooting guards (4.46/game), per Betting Pros.

Mitchell 3+ threes (-220): Let’s talk about a different Mitchell now — the one known to rain 3s for the Cavaliers.

Donovan Mitchell had an off night from beyond the arc in Game 1, shooting just 2-for-9. But the shot volume was encouraging, and if it keeps up, I’ll always like this milestone.

On the season, Mitchell averaged 3.3 threes per game on 36.8% shooting.

He was even better at home, averaging 3.4 threes on 39.9% shooting. Mitchell is 25-11 against this line in home games this year.

Heat vs. Cavaliers predictions made at 11:20 a.m. ET 04/23/2025.

With three NBA playoff games on tap for Wednesday night, I’ve got three prop bets worth checking out.

The pregame narrative: Payton Pritchard is a sharpshooter from 3-point range, and I love where his 3s line is at tonight, especially in light of Jayson Tatum’s status. Alperen Sengun and Davion Mitchell both look to build off strong Game 1 performances.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for first-round playoff action on April 23.

NBA prop bets

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Best Bet: Pritchard over 2.5 threes (-114)

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With Tatum (wrist) listed as doubtful for tonight, I knew I’d want to look at 3s props for other Celtics players to see who can fill the void.

Why not roll with the newly minted NBA Sixth Man of the Year, whose specialty is 3-point shooting?

• Pritchard shot 40.7% from deep this season, averaging 3.2 makes per game.

• Among 64 players who attempted at least 6.0 threes per game, his 40.7 3PT% ranked seventh.

• Pritchard went 4-for-6 from beyond the arc in Game 1 in 25 minutes off the bench.

Tatum averaged 10.1 attempted 3s per game this year, which was the fifth-most in the NBA. Naturally, his absence should create more opportunities for other shooters.

Since the start of last season, Pritchard is 13-5 against this prop when playing without Tatum. The fifth-year guard averaged 3.8 makes on 42.6 3PT% in those games.

Key stat: Pritchard has gone over 2.5 threes in 47 of 81 games this year (58.0%).

Best NBA picks

Sengun over 31.5 points/rebounds (-122): If the Warriors are going to commit to playing small, Houston should give Sengun every opportunity to capitalize around the rim.

In Game 1, Golden State deployed Draymond Green (6-foot-6) at centre. He’s a strong and scrappy defensive presence, but he gives up five inches of height to Sengun.

Unsurprisingly, the Warriors didn’t have much of an answer for the Rockets’ Turkish big man.

• Sengun scored 26 of Houston’s 85 points (11-of-18 shooting) and added nine rebounds.

• He has cashed this bet in 3 of his past 4 against Golden State.

The Warriors allowed the third-most rebounds to opposing centres this year, per Betting Pros.

Mitchell over 17.5 points/assists (-122): Mitchell is playing some seriously productive basketball right now, and this is a great way to buy in.

In his final 11 games of the regular season, Mitchell went 8-3 against this line while averaging 12.2 points and 6.8 assists (19.0 PA).

In the postseason, his numbers have held up as the Heat continue to give him opportunities:

• April 16 (at Chicago): 15 pts, 9 ast
• April 18 (at Atlanta): 16 pts, 5 ast
• April 20 (at Cleveland): 18 pts, 9 ast

Miami is probably going to be eliminated in four or five games. But Mitchell’s rise is a storyline the team can be excited about heading into the offseason.

NBA prop picks made at 9:45 a.m. ET on 04/23/2025.

The Los Angeles Lakers aim to even their first-round playoff series against the Minnesota Timberwolves on Tuesday night at Crypto.com Arena.

The pregame narrative: L.A.’s first playoff game in the Luka Doncic era didn’t go according to plan, putting the pressure on the home side tonight. I’m backing Doncic and LeBron James in this +400 SGP, along with an alt spread for the T-Wolves.

Check out my Timberwolves vs. Lakers first-round SGP predictions for Game 2 on April 22.

BOOST: Lakers -5.5, Luka 30+ points & LeBron 25+ points (+528, was +480). Bet now!

Timberwolves vs. Lakers predictions

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Parlay: Timberwolves +10.5 | Reid 2+ threes | Doncic 25+ points | LeBron 6+ assists (+400)

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Timberwolves +10.5 (-245): The Lakers can hardly afford to go down 2-0. But even if they bounce back to secure a win tonight, I wouldn’t expect a blowout.

Minnesota is 25-17 on the road this season, posting a 10-5-0 ATS mark as road underdogs, per Team Rankings. I’ve added five points to the standard spread, which should be plenty of cushion.

The T-Wolves are 3-2 SU against the Lakers this year and have covered a +10.5 spread in each game.

L.A. lost by 22 in the series opener despite decent 3-point shooting (36.6%) and a +6 margin in free throw attempts. I can’t see the Lakers turning things around to the point where they get a blowout win of their own.

NBA SGP legs

Naz Reid 2+ threes (-155): Do I think Reid will go 6-for-9 from 3-point land again tonight? No, but canning a couple of 3s is a fair ask.

• Since the start of last year, Reid has 2+ threes in 8 of 9 matchups vs. L.A.

• In the 2024-25 regular season, Reid averaged 2.2 made 3s on a career-high 5.8 attempts.

L.A. isn’t putting much respect on Reid’s game. In the series opener, eight of Reid’s nine 3-point attempts were deemed “wide open,” which means at least six feet of separation from the closest defender.

Maybe the Lakers will close out a bit better in Game 2, but they’ll have to pick their poison. The Timberwolves have lots of capable shooters, which led them to the fourth-highest 3PT% this year (37.7).

I expect Reid to see enough open looks to cash this bet.

Doncic 25+ points (-335): The Lakers need to be better tonight in a lot of ways, but Doncic’s offensive effort isn’t one of them.

In his first playoff game wearing purple and gold, Doncic scored 37 points while shooting 5-for-10 from deep.

Dating back to the start of March, Doncic has 25-plus points in 17 of 22 games. He’s averaging 30.9 PPG in that span.

Doncic also has 25-plus points in 13 consecutive playoff games (dating back to last season).

Whatever the Lakers do on Tuesday, expect Doncic to remain a prominent figure on the offensive end.

LeBron 6+ assists (-220): LeBron was unusually quiet as a facilitator in Game 1, dishing just three assists in 36 minutes.

For an ageless superstar who averaged 8.2 assists this season, that feels like an anomaly.

The Lakers only had 15 assists in Game 1, which was their lowest total of the year. They need to get back to moving the ball more freely, and LeBron should be at the forefront of that adjustment.

In the regular season, LeBron had six or more assists in 58 of 70 games.

Timberwolves vs. Lakers predictions made at 11:38 a.m. ET 04/22/2025.