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Rockets vs. Warriors prop picks Game 3: Fade VanVleet, bet on Sengun to star for Houston

Even at one game apiece, the first-round series between the Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors shifts to the Bay Area.

The pregame narrative: My eyes are on a pair of prop bets for the visiting Rockets, who’ve gotten frustratingly little from money vacuum Fred VanVleet. I’m fading VanVleet and looking for another solid game from Alperen Sengun.

Check out my Rockets vs. Warriors prop picks for Game 3 of the opening round.

Rockets vs. Warriors prop picks

Best Bet: VanVleet under 12.5 points (-118)

Here’s a thought: Maybe it’s time the Rockets ask VanVleet to stop shooting.

Giving the ex-Raptor a max contract in the summer of 2023 was clearly a mistake, but the Rockets don’t have a time machine to change that. What they can do is take the ball out of the hands of someone who was arguably the worst shooter in the NBA this season.

Among players who played at least 20 games and attempted 10-plus shots per game, VanVleet was second-last in field goal percentage (37.8%, ahead of only Portland’s Jerami Grant).

VanVleet’s 14.1 PPG scoring average was his lowest since 2018-19, when he was only a part-time starter on the Raptors’ championship squad.

Battling an ankle injury in the latter half of the season, VanVleet’s scoring production really dipped over his final 20 games:

11.7 PPG
34.2 FG%
Under 12.5 pts in 11 of 20

And it’s not like his postseason efforts have righted the ship.

Through two matchups against Golden State, VanVleet is 6-for-27 from the floor (3-for-20 from deep) for a grand total of 17 points.

He had seven points on eight shots last time out, a game Houston won by 15. It seems like the team’s offence is better off without him.

Key stat: In six games against the Warriors this season, VanVleet has averaged 8.7 PPG on 22.4% shooting. He scored 13 points in one of those matchups and cashed this under in the other five.

Game 3 prop prediction

Sengun over 29.5 points/rebounds (-112): I took Sengun’s over at 30.5 points/rebounds in Game 2, and he responded with 17 points and 16 boards.

He has now cashed this bet in four of his past five games against the Warriors.

I really don’t understand why his PR line would be a tick lower for Game 3, but I’ll just bet it instead of asking questions.

The Warriors may be forced into fewer small-ball lineups if Jimmy Butler (pelvis) is unable to play. But I still expect Houston to run a significant portion of its offence through its 6-foot-11 centre.

In his past five games against Golden State, Sengun has averaged 19.6 points and 12.6 rebounds (32.2 PR).

Draymond Green under 6.5 rebounds (-120): Green is as disruptive as any 6-foot-6 centre could possibly hope to be, but he gives up a ton of size around the rim.

If the Warriors continue to commit to small ball, Green should be well-positioned to grab boards. But that hasn’t turned into big numbers.

Green has played 30+ minutes in both games and finished under 6.5 rebounds both times.

Green is 0-5 vs. this rebounds prop in his past five matchups against the Rockets (since Dec. 11).

If Jimmy Butler (pelvis, questionable) is out, the Warriors might need to shift their strategy and play with more size in the paint (deploying Kevon Looney or Quinten Post, for example).

And if Butler does play, he has enough rebounding prowess to continue to bite into Green’s opportunity. So I just don’t like this number for Green either way.

Rockets vs. Warriors prop picks made at 4:37 p.m. ET 04/25/2025.

Rockets vs. Warriors prop picks Game 3: Fade VanVleet, bet on Sengun to star for Houston

Even at one game apiece, the first-round series between the Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors shifts to the Bay Area.

The pregame narrative: My eyes are on a pair of prop bets for the visiting Rockets, who’ve gotten frustratingly little from money vacuum Fred VanVleet. I’m fading VanVleet and looking for another solid game from Alperen Sengun.

Check out my Rockets vs. Warriors prop picks for Game 3 of the opening round.

Rockets vs. Warriors prop picks

Best Bet: VanVleet under 12.5 points (-108)

Here’s a thought: Maybe it’s time the Rockets ask VanVleet to stop shooting.

Giving the ex-Raptor a max contract in the summer of 2023 was clearly a mistake, but the Rockets don’t have a time machine to change that. What they can do is take the ball out of the hands of someone who was arguably the worst shooter in the NBA this season.

Among players who played at least 20 games and attempted 10-plus shots per game, VanVleet was second-last in field goal percentage (37.8%, ahead of only Portland’s Jerami Grant).

VanVleet’s 14.1 PPG scoring average was his lowest since 2018-19, when he was only a part-time starter on the Raptors’ championship squad.

Battling an ankle injury in the latter half of the season, VanVleet’s scoring production really dipped over his final 20 games:

11.7 PPG
34.2 FG%
Under 12.5 pts in 11 of 20

And it’s not like his postseason efforts have righted the ship.

Through two matchups against Golden State, VanVleet is 6-for-27 from the floor (3-for-20 from deep) for a grand total of 17 points.

He had seven points on eight shots last time out, a game Houston won by 15. It seems like the team’s offence is better off without him.

Key stat: In six games against the Warriors this season, VanVleet has averaged 8.7 PPG on 22.4% shooting. He scored 13 points in one of those matchups and cashed this under in the other five.

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Game 3 prop prediction

Sengun over 30.5 points/rebounds (-122): I took Sengun’s over at 31.5 points/rebounds in Game 2, and he responded with 17 points and 16 boards.

He has now cashed this bet in four of his past five games against the Warriors.

I really don’t understand why his PR line would be a tick lower for Game 3, but I’ll just bet it instead of asking questions.

The Warriors may be forced into fewer small-ball lineups if Jimmy Butler (pelvis) is unable to play. But I still expect Houston to run a significant portion of its offence through its 6-foot-11 centre.

In his past five games against Golden State, Sengun has averaged 19.6 points and 12.6 rebounds (32.2 PR).

Draymond Green under 6.5 rebounds (-121): Green is as disruptive as any 6-foot-6 centre could possibly hope to be, but he gives up a ton of size around the rim.

If the Warriors continue to commit to small ball, Green should be well-positioned to grab boards. But that hasn’t turned into big numbers.

Green has played 30+ minutes in both games and finished under 6.5 rebounds both times.

Green is 0-5 vs. this rebounds prop in his past five matchups against the Rockets (since Dec. 11).

If Jimmy Butler (pelvis, questionable) is out, the Warriors might need to shift their strategy and play with more size in the paint (deploying Kevon Looney or Quinten Post, for example).

And if Butler does play, he has enough rebounding prowess to continue to bite into Green’s opportunity. So I just don’t like this number for Green either way.

Rockets vs. Warriors prop picks made at 3:37 p.m. ET 04/25/2025.

Best NBA playoff prop bets April 25: Take the over on props for Doncic, Lillard and White

Luka Doncic and Damian Lillard headline my Friday night NBA prop bets for the first-round tripleheader.

The pregame narrative: Doncic and Lillard have both excelled recently against their respective opponents and should be relied upon for further production. In the first game of the night, look for Derrick White to continue his run as a high-floor scorer.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for first-round playoff action on April 25.

NBA prop bets

Best Bet: White over 17.5 points (-125)

After White torched the Orlando Magic in their series opener, he cooled down significantly in Game 2. But he was still reasonably productive.

Game 1: 30 points, 55.6 FG% (7-for-12 from 3-point range)

Game 2: 17 points, 42.9 FG% (3-for-10 from 3-point range)

Jayson Tatum (wrist) is doubtful to play tonight after missing Game 2. Tatum averaged a team-high 10.1 attempted 3s this season, so his absence leaves a lot of vacated shots.

Next up on the Celtics’ list of volume 3-point shooters is White, who averaged 9.1 attempted 3s during the year.

Sure enough, White’s 10 attempted 3s led the Celtics in Game 2.

The eighth-year guard has played nine games without Tatum this season, averaging 20.3 PPG and cashing this bet seven times.

Key stat: The last time White faced the Magic in Orlando (Dec. 23), he played a team-high 40 minutes and scored 17 points. Tatum was absent for that game, too.

Best NBA picks

Doncic over 30.5 points (-120): Doncic was quieted by the Timberwolves in all three regular-season matchups this season. He shot 37.5% and didn’t even hit the 25-point mark once.

But how much does that matter when the playoffs come around? Not much at all, it seems.

Check out his playoff numbers vs. Minnesota since last year’s Western Conference finals:

32.9 PPG
31+ points in 6 of 7
42.3 3PT%

So far in this series, Doncic has 37 and 31 points, respectively, in the two games.

The Lakers have ample star power, but Doncic is the one shining brightest right now. And based on how he’s tortured the T-Wolves in the recent past, I think he’s worth a play at this line.

Lillard over 6.5 assists (-120): Lillard’s return after five-ish weeks on the shelf was a bit underwhelming in the scoring department. But in addition to 14 points on 13 shots, he posted seven assists.

Maybe he’ll get into more of a scoring groove tonight, but either way, I like this line for Lillard’s assists prop.

He averaged 7.1 APG on the season.

He has 7+ assists in 4 of 5 games vs. the Pacers this year (8.8 APG average in those games).

Indiana allowed the 11th-most assists to opposing point guards (8.99/game), according to Betting Pros.

NBA prop picks made at 1:05 p.m. ET on 04/25/2025.

Lakers vs. Timberwolves SGP predictions Game 3: Bet on James, Doncic and Edwards in +330 wager

The Minnesota Timberwolves and Los Angeles Lakers series shifts locations, tied at one apiece.

The pregame narrative: Los Angeles responded to a blowout defeat in the series opener with a slug-it-out victory in Game 2. I’m staying away from picking a side on Friday and am instead rolling with a superstar-filled SGP featuring LeBron James, Luka Doncic and Anthony Edwards.

Check out my Lakers vs. Timberwolves playoff SGP predictions for Game 3 on Friday, April 25.

Lakers vs. Timberwolves predictions

Parlay: James 6+ assists | Edwards 6+ rebounds | Doncic 3+ threes (+330)

James 6+ assists (-157): LeBron has struggled as a scorer this series, shooting 43.2% from the floor and 20.0% from deep.

The ageless superstar can still contribute in other ways, and with Doncic taking over primary scoring duties, I want to key in on LeBron’s abilities as a passer.

He had seven assists in Game 2 after posting an incredible 8.2 assists per game during the regular season (sixth-best mark in NBA).

LeBron has cleared this line in 10 of his last 12 playoff games.

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NBA SGP legs

Edwards over 5.5 rebounds (-122): Standing at 6-foot-4 with a jump-out-of-the-gym vertical, Edwards can contest for any rebound. And in the playoffs, he’s more than willing to go and get them.

Edwards is averaging 7.0 rebounds across his last 20 playoff games.

In that span, he’s 14-6 against this line (2-0 this series).

This is also a great matchup for Edwards, considering the Lakers don’t have a true big man. Jaxson Hayes has been starting at centre but is playing less than 10 minutes a night, leaving 6-foot-7 Dorian Finney-Smith to do most of the work.

The Lakers allowed the 11th-most rebounds per game to shooting guards over the last 30 days of the NBA season, per Fantasy Pros.

Doncic 3+ threes (-225): Backing Doncic on this total seems pretty safe to me, even though he went 2-of-8 from deep in Game 2.

The superstar had cleared this line in six straight games prior, averaging 4.8 makes on 9.5 attempts per game (50.5% shooting).

That includes a 5-of-10 shooting performance in the series opener.

Doncic has cleared this line in six of his last seven playoff games against the Timberwolves, dating back to last year’s Western Conference finals when he was on the Dallas Mavericks.

Lakers vs. Timberwolves predictions made at 11:00 a.m. ET 04/25/2025.

Pacers vs. Bucks SGP predictions Game 3: Bet on Siakam to score, Indiana to cover alt spread

The Milwaukee Bucks are looking to get back in their first-round series tonight when they host the Indiana Pacers for Game 3.

The pregame narrative: Milwaukee dropped Games 1 and 2 on the road but is favoured tonight. I’d prefer to bank some points with Indiana while also backing Pascal Siakam and Damian Lillard in a +280 SGP.

Check out my Pacers vs. Bucks playoff SGP predictions for Game 3 on Friday, April 25.

Pacers vs. Bucks predictions

Parlay: Pacers +8.5 | Lillard 6+ assists | Siakam 20+ points (+250)

Pacers +8.5 (-180): Indiana earned a pair of comfortable victories to start the series, covering the spread both times. So sign me up for this amount of cushion in Game 3.

In the series opener, the Pacers won by 19 points as 6-point favourites. They followed that up with an 8-point win as 4.5-point favourites.

Indiana has covered a +8.5 spread in five straight games against Milwaukee, dating back to Dec. 31.

Lillard’s insertion into the series is a boost for the Bucks, but I’m not sold on him being a game-breaking scorer after missing more than a month of action.

And behind Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks just don’t have the depth to match the Pacers.

Indiana has seven players who averaged 10.0 PPG or more this season, and the team ranked ninth this year in offensive rating (one spot ahead of Milwaukee).

The Pacers have covered a +8.5 spread in 18 of their past 21 road games.

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NBA SGP legs

Lillard 6+ assists (-200): I took Lillard over 6.5 assists (-108) as one of my top prop bets for Friday night, so naturally I’m keen to back him on a milestone like this.

Lillard didn’t get into an offensive rhythm in Game 2 — his first NBA action since March 18 — finishing with 14 points on 30.8% shooting. But he did chip in with seven assists.

In five games against the Pacers this season, Lillard has averaged 8.8 assists and cashed this bet four times.

According to Betting Pros, Indiana allowed the 11th-most assists per game to opposing point guards (8.99), and Lillard has clearly taken advantage.

Siakam 20+ points (-124): At this price, Siakam’s milestone points prop is playable on its own. But it also takes this SGP from +132 to +280, and that has my attention.

This season, Siakam is 6-0 against this prop when facing the Bucks. He’s averaged 24.2 PPG vs. Milwaukee.

So far this series, Siakam has shot 18-for-31 (58.1%) from the floor and is a perfect 8-for-8 from the free-throw line.

Will things be tougher on Siakam now that he’s playing on the road? Maybe, but last year’s playoff showdown against the Bucks wouldn’t suggest that.

Siakam 2-1 against this prop in Milwaukee last postseason, scoring 35-plus points in two of those games.

Also, Siakam now has 20-plus points in eight of his past nine playoff games (he had 19 points in the outlier).

Pacers vs. Bucks predictions made at 11:30 a.m. ET 04/25/2025.

Best NBA playoff prop bets April 25: Take the over on props for Doncic, Lillard and White

Luka Doncic and Damian Lillard headline my Friday night NBA prop bets for the first-round tripleheader.

The pregame narrative: Doncic and Lillard have both excelled recently against their respective opponents and should be relied upon for further production. In the first game of the night, look for Derrick White to continue his run as a high-floor scorer.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for first-round playoff action on April 25.

NBA prop bets

Best Bet: White over 16.5 points (-121)

After White torched the Orlando Magic in their series opener, he cooled down significantly in Game 2. But he still did enough to cash this bet.

Game 1: 30 points, 55.6 FG% (7-for-12 from 3-point range)

Game 2: 17 points, 42.9 FG% (3-for-10 from 3-point range)

Jayson Tatum (wrist) is doubtful to play tonight after missing Game 2. Tatum averaged a team-high 10.1 attempted 3s this season, so his absence leaves a lot of vacated shots.

Next up on the Celtics’ list of volume 3-point shooters is White, who averaged 9.1 attempted 3s during the year.

Sure enough, White’s 10 attempted 3s led the Celtics in Game 2.

The eighth-year guard has played nine games without Tatum this season, averaging 20.3 PPG and cashing this bet seven times.

Key stat: The last time White faced the Magic in Orlando (Dec. 23), he played a team-high 40 minutes and scored 17 points. Tatum was absent for that game, too.

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Best NBA picks

Doncic over 29.5 points (-134): Doncic was quieted by the Timberwolves in all three regular-season matchups this season. He shot 37.5% and didn’t even hit the 25-point mark once.

But how much does that matter when the playoffs come around? Not much at all, it seems.

Check out his playoff numbers vs. Minnesota since last year’s Western Conference finals:

32.9 PPG
30+ points in 6 of 7
42.3 3PT%

So far in this series, Doncic has 37 and 31 points, respectively, in the two games.

The Lakers have ample star power, but Doncic is the one shining brightest right now. And based on how he’s tortured the T-Wolves in the recent past, I think he’s worth a play at this line.

Lillard over 6.5 assists (-108): Lillard’s return after five-ish weeks on the shelf was a bit underwhelming in the scoring department. But in addition to 14 points on 13 shots, he posted seven assists.

Maybe he’ll get into more of a scoring groove tonight, but either way, I like this line for Lillard’s assists prop.

He averaged 7.1 APG on the season.

He has 7+ assists in 4 of 5 games vs. the Pacers this year (8.8 APG average in those games).

Indiana allowed the 11th-most assists to opposing point guards (8.99/game), according to Betting Pros.

NBA prop picks made at 9:55 a.m. ET on 04/25/2025.

Lakers vs. Timberwolves prop picks Game 3: Anthony Edwards, Austin Reaves should fill the net

Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves host the Los Angeles Lakers on Friday for Game 3 of a level series.

The pregame narrative: Edwards is my primary target on the prop market, as I think his shot volume should turn into a hefty scoring total. I’m also backing Austin Reaves to clear his points prop.

Check out my Lakers vs. Timberwolves prop picks for Game 3 of the opening round.

Lakers vs. Timberwolves prop picks

Best Bet: Edwards over 26.5 points (-112)

The boisterous, ever-confident, smack-talking Edwards is built for postseason play.

Fresh off a $50,000 fine for an exchange with a Laker fan, Edwards returns to Minnesota seeking to put on a show for the home crowd.

He’s finished under 25.5 points in both games so far this series, but not for a lack of trying:

Game 1: 22 points on 22 shots
Game 2: 25 points on 22 shots

If Edwards is going to continue firing 20-plus shots — and I don’t see why he’d stop — this points prop will always be within his grasp.

Through 29 playoff games, Edwards is averaging 27.5 PPG on 20.4 shots.

That’s plenty of volume for the three-time all-star, who averaged a career-high 27.6 PPG this season.

Game 3 is a crucial opportunity for the T-Wolves or Lakers to get ahead. I expect Edwards to give himself plenty of opportunities to lead that charge.

Key stat: Edwards has gone over 26.5 points in 15 of 29 playoff games in his career.

Game 3 prop prediction

Reaves over 17.5 points (-130): Like Edwards, Reaves has the shot volume to crest this point total. We just haven’t seen it happen yet in this series.

Game 1: 16 points on 13 shots
Game 2: 16 points on 14 shots

Reaves finished the regular season on a special scoring binge, averaging 24.9 PPG from March 13 through the season finale. He cashed this bet in 15 of those 17 games.

It’s been the Luka Doncic show for L.A. so far, and I’m sure that will continue. But Reaves has been more than just a sidekick even since Doncic joined the fold.

When he last faced the T-Wolves in Minnesota, Reaves scored 18 points while shooting 4-for-8 from 3-point range.

Lakers vs. Timberwolves prop picks made at 3:37 p.m. ET 04/24/2025.

Lakers vs. Timberwolves prop picks Game 3: Anthony Edwards, Austin Reaves should fill the net

Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves host the Los Angeles Lakers on Friday for Game 3 of a level series.

The pregame narrative: Edwards is my primary target on the prop market, as I think his shot volume should turn into a hefty scoring total. I’m also backing Austin Reaves to clear his points prop.

Check out my Lakers vs. Timberwolves prop picks for Game 3 of the opening round.

Lakers vs. Timberwolves prop picks

Best Bet: Edwards over 25.5 points (-124)

The boisterous, ever-confident, smack-talking Edwards is built for postseason play.

Fresh off a $50,000 fine for an exchange with a Laker fan, Edwards returns to Minnesota seeking to put on a show for the home crowd.

He’s finished under 25.5 points in both games so far this series, but not for a lack of trying:

Game 1: 22 points on 22 shots
Game 2: 25 points on 22 shots

If Edwards is going to continue firing 20-plus shots — and I don’t see why he’d stop — this points prop will always be within his grasp.

Through 29 playoff games, Edwards is averaging 27.5 PPG on 20.4 shots.

That’s plenty of volume for the three-time all-star, who averaged a career-high 27.6 PPG this season.

Game 3 is a crucial opportunity for the T-Wolves or Lakers to get ahead. I expect Edwards to give himself plenty of opportunities to lead that charge.

Key stat: Edwards has gone over 25.5 points in seven of 13 home playoff games in his career.

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Game 3 prop prediction

Reaves over 17.5 points (-125): Like Edwards, Reaves has the shot volume to crest this point total. We just haven’t seen it happen yet in this series.

Game 1: 16 points on 13 shots
Game 2: 16 points on 14 shots

Reaves finished the regular season on a special scoring binge, averaging 24.9 PPG from March 13 through the season finale. He cashed this bet in 15 of those 17 games.

It’s been the Luka Doncic show for L.A. so far, and I’m sure that will continue. But Reaves has been more than just a sidekick even since Doncic joined the fold.

When he last faced the T-Wolves in Minnesota, Reaves scored 18 points while shooting 4-for-8 from 3-point range.

Lakers vs. Timberwolves prop picks made at 2:37 p.m. ET 04/24/2025.

Thunder vs. Grizzlies prop picks Game 3: Bet on Ja Morant, Chet Holmgren on Thursday

I’m looking for Ja Morant to have a game as the Oklahoma City Thunder and Memphis Grizzlies’ first-round series shifts locations.

The pregame narrative: Memphis got rocked in the first two games. But on the road, that was expected. Morant has been shooting with volume, and I expect him to have a game at FedExForum. On the other end, back Chet Holmgren to can a pair of 3s.

Check out my Thunder vs. Grizzlies prop picks for Game 3 of the opening round.

Thunder vs. Grizzlies prop picks

Best Bet: Morant over 24.5 points (-130)

Morant has fallen short of this line in both games so far.

Game 1: 17 points (6-of-17 shooting)
Game 2: 23 points (10-of-25 shooting)

That’s not great, and neither is shooting 38.1% from the field. But I’m loving Morant’s shot volume and expect him to let it fly again tonight.

The two-time all-star closed his season on a tear, averaging 29.4 points and 21.9 field-goal attempts across his last 15 games. He cleared this line 12 times and scored 20-plus points in every contest.

OKC is a nightmare matchup, and there’s no hiding that.

The Thunder allowed the second-fewest PPG to opposing point guards (22.86) and had the league’s best defensive rating (106.6) during the regular season.

But Morant should get a ton of run while facing the prospect of going down 3-0 on Thursday. He only played 26 minutes in a blowout in Game 1 and had 40 minutes in Game 2, which was also a rout.

The 9.5-point spread also indicates this should be a closer contest.

Key stat: Morant has taken the second-most shots per game (21.6) since March 1.

Game 3 prop prediction

Holmgren over 1.5 threes (-130): Holmgren is a do-it-all big man, and that extends to his 3-point shooting.

The 7-foot-1 power forward is 6-for-12 from deep this series, canning three 3s in each game.

Holmgren is 5-1 against this line in his last six games dating back to the regular season while shooting 56.1% from 3-point range.

The Grizzlies allowed the fourth-most 3s per game to opposing power forwards this season.

Thunder vs. Grizzlies prop picks made at 11:37 a.m. ET 04/24/2025.

Thunder vs. Grizzlies prop picks Game 3: Bet on Ja Morant, Chet Holmgren on Thursday

I’m looking for Ja Morant to have a game as the Oklahoma City Thunder and Memphis Grizzlies’ first-round series shifts locations.

The pregame narrative: Memphis got rocked in the first two games. But on the road, that was expected. Morant has been shooting with volume, and I expect him to have a game at FedExForum. On the other end, back Chet Holmgren to can a pair of 3s.

Check out my Thunder vs. Grizzlies prop picks for Game 3 of the opening round.

Thunder vs. Grizzlies prop picks

Best Bet: Morant over 23.5 points (-122)

Morant has fallen short of this line in both games so far.

Game 1: 17 points (6-of-17 shooting)
Game 2: 23 points (10-of-25 shooting)

That’s not great, and neither is shooting 38.1% from the field. But I’m loving Morant’s shot volume and expect him to let it fly again tonight.

The two-time all-star closed his season on a tear, averaging 29.4 points and 21.9 field-goal attempts across his last 15 games. He cleared this line 13 times and scored 20-plus points in every contest.

OKC is a nightmare matchup, and there’s no hiding that.

The Thunder allowed the second-fewest PPG to opposing point guards (22.86) and had the league’s best defensive rating (106.6) during the regular season.

But Morant should get a ton of run while facing the prospect of going down 3-0 on Thursday. He only played 26 minutes in a blowout in Game 1 and had 40 minutes in Game 2, which was also a rout.

The 9.5-point spread also indicates this should be a closer contest.

Key stat: Morant has taken the second-most shots per game (21.6) since March 1.

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Game 3 prop prediction

Holmgren over 1.5 threes (-139): Holmgren is a do-it-all big man, and that extends to his 3-point shooting.

The 7-foot-1 power forward is 6-for-12 from deep this series, canning three 3s in each game.

Holmgren is 5-1 against this line in his last six games dating back to the regular season while shooting 56.1% from 3-point range.

The Grizzlies allowed the fourth-most 3s per game to opposing power forwards this season.

Thunder vs. Grizzlies prop picks made at 11:37 a.m. ET 04/24/2025.