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Clippers vs. Nuggets SGP predictions Game 5: Back Kawhi Leonard, Aaron Gordon in +390 parlay

Knotted at two games apiece, the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers meet at Ball Arena on Tuesday for Game 5.

The pregame narrative: This series has been played at a methodical pace, and an alt under looks like the play once again. This +390 SGP also features prop bets on Kawhi Leonard, James Harden and Aaron Gordon.

Check out my Clippers vs. Nuggets playoff SGP predictions for Game 5 on Tuesday, April 29.

Clippers vs. Nuggets predictions

Parlay: Under 212.5 points | Gordon under 1.5 threes | Harden 8+ assists | Leonard 20+ points (+390)

Under 212.5 points (-162): I have this pick in my +269 NBA parlay for Tuesday night, and it feels like a good way to get this SGP started.

Unders are 4-0 in this series, and three of the four games went under this total.

The exception was a game that went to overtime. But all four matchups totalled 207 points or fewer in regulation.

This series has been played at a snail’s pace, with the teams averaging just 91.13 possessions per game. For context, the slowest-paced team during the regular season averaged 96.51 possessions (Orlando Magic).

In five head-to-head meetings in Denver this year, unders are 4-1.

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NBA SGP legs

Gordon under 1.5 threes (-186): Gordon had a remarkably efficient season from 3-point range, but this is a tough matchup to excel in. Especially since he’s not putting up huge numbers volume-wise.

Gordon averaged 1.5 makes on 43.6 3PT% during the regular season.

So far in this series, he’s 5-for-13 (38.5%) from deep, hitting this under in 3 of 4 games.

The Clippers aren’t giving the Nuggets any room to breathe beyond the arc in this series, which is part of the reason why Gordon hasn’t taken many 3s.

Denver is attempting just 28.5 threes per game, which is the fewest of all playoff teams.

Gordon has gone under 1.5 threes in six of seven matchups against the Clippers overall this season. The opportunities just don’t seem to be there for him to have a big night beyond the arc.

Harden 8+ assists (-278): Harden is doing his thing as the primary facilitator for the Clippers, and I like his chances of putting up another solid assist total tonight.

Coming off an 11-assist effort, Harden has cashed this milestone in 3 of 4 playoff games.

He’s averaging 9.4 assists in eight matchups against Denver on the season.

Harden ranks fifth among playoff performers in potential assists per game (14.8), which denotes passes that immediately lead to a shot. I suspect he’ll continue putting his teammates in position to score.

Leonard 20+ points (-335): One of the teammates Harden should be particularly inclined to get the ball to is Leonard.

It’s been a great series for the ex-Toronto Raptor, who’s averaging 26.5 PPG on 56.2/47.6/87.5 shooting splits.

Leonard has 20-plus points in all four games, building on a stellar finish to the regular season.

Dating back to March 11, Leonard has now cashed this milestone points prop in 19 consecutive games.

It’s fair if you’d prefer to eschew a -335 parlay leg, but it takes this ticket from +240 to +390. Given how consistent Leonard has been, I’ll take it.

Nuggets vs. Clippers predictions made at 12:10 p.m. ET 04/29/2025.

Bucks vs. Pacers SGP predictions Game 5: Bet on Giannis and Green to produce in a loss

The Indiana Pacers can send the Milwaukee Bucks packing on Tuesday night with a win in Game 5.

The pregame narrative: It’s been a nightmare series for Milwaukee, which just lost superstar guard Damian Lillard to a torn Achilles tendon. I expect Giannis Antetokounmpo to do his thing and AJ Green to hit a pair of threes. Still, Indiana seems like a safe bet to win and advance.

Check out my Bucks vs. Pacers playoff SGP predictions for Game 5 on April 29.

Bucks vs. Pacers predictions

Parlay: Pacers -3.5 | Giannis 30+ points | Green 2+ threes (+280)

Pacers -3.5 (-250): Milwaukee has tormented Indiana for years with Giannis at the helm, but the tables have finally turned.

The Pacers are dominating this series. They have a +37 point differential through four games, covering a -7.5 spread in each win. That includes victories of 19 and eight points at home.

Milwaukee’s lone win came on its home court and required a Herculean 37-point night from Gary Trent Jr.

Indiana is a dominant 31-11 at home through the regular season and playoffs, while Milwaukee is an underwhelming 20-22 on the road.

The Bucks are 6-14 straight up as road underdogs.

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NBA SGP legs

Giannis 30+ points (-225): This could be Giannis’ last game as a Buck, and if it is, I expect him to go out with a bang.

The Greek Freak has been unstoppable this series, averaging 33.8 PPG on 62.2% shooting. He’s cleared this line in three of four games while landing on 28 points in the outlier.

He is 11-4 against this line in his last 15 games against the Pacers.

Indiana allowed the fourth-most PPG to power forwards this season, according to Fantasy Pros, so there’s no reason to believe Giannis will slow down.

He’s had the second-highest usage rate in the playoffs and should get minutes until the bitter end.

Green 2+ threes (-180): Green has been a reliable 3-point shooter for Milwaukee all season. Coming off the bench, he averaged 2.1 makes on 5.0 attempts per game (42.7%).

He’s shot north of 40.0% in all three of his NBA seasons and has turned up the heat this series, going a collective 12-of-25 from deep (48.0%).

Game 1: 5-of-11
Game 2: 0-of-1
Game 3: 4-of-8
Game 4: 3-of-5

Green only played 12 minutes in a tightly-contested Game 2 with Lillard in the lineup. I expect the Pacers to have a large lead in this one, meaning Green should be on mop-up duty.

Pacers vs. Bucks predictions made at 10:45 a.m. ET 04/29/2025.

NBA playoff prop bets April 29: Bet on Giannis, Wagner putting up points

Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Milwaukee Bucks are on the brink of elimination — but I expect the superstar to go down swinging.

The pregame narrative: Giannis is one of my three NBA prop targets on Tuesday night, alongside Orlando’s Franz Wagner and Detroit’s Tim Hardaway Jr. I think all three players have a solid opportunity to shine in their respective playoff matchups.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for first-round playoff action on April 29.

NBA prop bets

Best Bet: Wagner over 22.5 points (-120)

The Orlando Magic don’t have a very imaginative offence. It’s a lot of isolation action, with either Wagner or Paolo Banchero heaving the ball toward the rim as the shot clock winds down.

Of the 334 shot attempts Orlando has had this series, 202 of them (60.5%) have come from the Wagner/Banchero duo.

Banchero is the 1A to Wagner’s 1B, but they both have exceptionally high floors in terms of shot volume. Wagner has attempted 20-plus shots in all four first-round games.

More importantly, he has cashed this bet every time.

The 3-point shooting from Wagner has been poor (7-of-33, 21.2%), but unfortunately that’s not too far off the expectation.

His 29.5 3PT% this season was the worst in the NBA among players who attempted 4.5 threes or more per game.

What I’m fixated on is Wagner’s shot volume, which has remained high in spite of the inefficiency. If he’s in the realm of 20-plus field-goal attempts (and five or more attempted 3s), another over will be in play.

Key stat: Wagner is 5-0 against this prop in matchups against Boston this month, averaging 25.4 PPG in those games.

Best NBA picks

Giannis over 45.5 points/rebounds (-125): The Pacers haven’t done a good job of containing Giannis, but it really hasn’t mattered. They’re up 3-1 in the first-round series and will likely close things out tonight.

I do expect Giannis to go out with a bang, though, as he’s the only player who gives the Bucks any hope of winning.

Through four games, the Greek Freak is averaging 33.8 points and 14.3 rebounds.

He has 46 more points and 26 more rebounds than any other player in the series.

Giannis had 28 points on uncharacteristically inefficient shooting in Game 4 (9-for-20).

But he’s still 3-1 against this prop in this series, and he’s shooting 63.5% in eight matchups against the Pacers this season.

Hardaway over 2.5 threes (-125): Hardaway’s 3-point shooting volume was down this year, as he averaged fewer than 6.0 attempts for the first time since the 2016-17 season.

But he’s ratcheted the volume back up in the playoffs, and coming off two huge games beyond the arc, I think this is a great number to back him at.

In Game 3, Hardaway shot 7-for-12 from 3-point range. He followed that up with a 4-for-13 showing in Game 4.

All told, Hardaway is 3-1 against this prop against the Knicks in the first round, averaging 9.8 attempted 3s per game. I’ll take that volume every day.

NBA prop picks made at 10:40 a.m. ET on 04/29/2025.

NBA playoff prop bets April 29: Bet on Giannis, Wagner putting up points

Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Milwaukee Bucks are on the brink of elimination — but I expect the superstar to go down swinging.

The pregame narrative: Giannis is one of my three NBA prop targets on Tuesday night, alongside Orlando’s Franz Wagner and Detroit’s Tim Hardaway Jr. I think all three players have a solid opportunity to shine in their respective playoff matchups.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for first-round playoff action on April 29.

NBA prop bets

Best Bet: Wagner over 22.5 points (-120)

The Orlando Magic don’t have a very imaginative offence. It’s a lot of isolation action, with either Wagner or Paolo Banchero heaving the ball toward the rim as the shot clock winds down.

Of the 334 shot attempts Orlando has had this series, 202 of them (60.5%) have come from the Wagner/Banchero duo.

Banchero is the 1A to Wagner’s 1B, but they both have exceptionally high floors in terms of shot volume. Wagner has attempted 20-plus shots in all four first-round games.

More importantly, he has cashed this bet every time.

The 3-point shooting from Wagner has been poor (7-of-33, 21.2%), but unfortunately that’s not too far off the expectation.

His 29.5 3PT% this season was the worst in the NBA among players who attempted 4.5 threes or more per game.

What I’m fixated on is Wagner’s shot volume, which has remained high in spite of the inefficiency. If he’s in the realm of 20-plus field-goal attempts (and five or more attempted 3s), another over will be in play.

Key stat: Wagner is 5-0 against this prop in matchups against Boston this month, averaging 25.4 PPG in those games.

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Best NBA picks

Giannis over 45.5 points/rebounds (-122): The Pacers haven’t done a good job of containing Giannis, but it really hasn’t mattered. They’re up 3-1 in the first-round series and will likely close things out tonight.

I do expect Giannis to go out with a bang, though, as he’s the only player who gives the Bucks any hope of winning.

Through four games, the Greek Freak is averaging 33.8 points and 14.3 rebounds.

He has 46 more points and 26 more rebounds than any other player in the series.

Giannis had 28 points on uncharacteristically inefficient shooting in Game 4 (9-for-20).

But he’s still 3-1 against this prop in this series, and he’s shooting 63.5% in eight matchups against the Pacers this season.

Hardaway over 2.5 threes (-115): Hardaway’s 3-point shooting volume was down this year, as he averaged fewer than 6.0 attempts for the first time since the 2016-17 season.

But he’s ratcheted the volume back up in the playoffs, and coming off two huge games beyond the arc, I think this is a great number to back him at.

In Game 3, Hardaway shot 7-for-12 from 3-point range. He followed that up with a 4-for-13 showing in Game 4.

All told, Hardaway is 3-1 against this prop against the Knicks in the first round, averaging 9.8 attempted 3s per game. I’ll take that volume every day.

NBA prop picks made at 9:40 a.m. ET on 04/29/2025.

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Clippers vs. Nuggets prop picks Game 5: Bet on Norman Powell and Nikola Jokic to produce

The Los Angeles Clippers and Denver Nuggets head back to altitude on Tuesday with their first-round series tied 2-2.

The pregame narrative: Nikola Jokic has done it all for the Nuggets through four games, which is to be expected. Norman Powell, meanwhile, has turned in an efficient shooting performance. I’m betting on each player to produce in Denver.

Check out my Clippers vs. Nuggets prop picks for Game 5 of the NBA first-round playoff series.

Clippers vs. Nuggets picks

Best Bet: Powell over 2.5 threes (+100)

Kawhi Leonard and James Harden are the No. 1 and 2 options for L.A., and that’s fine.

Powell has settled into the tertiary scoring role nicely, averaging 16.8 PPG this series and shooting 42.3% from deep.

The former Toronto Raptor is playing big minutes (33.8 a night) and has attempted eight 3s in consecutive games. He cleared this line in both outings.

Powell hit a pair of 3s in Games 1 and 2, so it’s not like he was far off from a clean sweep.

I’m most encouraged by the type of looks Powell’s getting.

He’s attempting 3.3 “wide open” 3s a night, according to nba.com. That’s categorized as a shot where the nearest defender is further than six feet away.

Unsurprisingly, having Harden and Leonard stretch the floor is leading to better looks.

Denver’s biggest problem defensively is limiting 3s. Dating back to the regular season, it allows the 10th-most 3s per game (14.1) at the sixth-highest rate (36.6%).

Key stat: Powell averaged career highs in 3s (3.0) and 3-point attempts (7.1) this season.

Game 5 prop prediction

Jokic over 9.5 assists (-106): Just how much can one man do? I feel like we’re asking that question nearly every time Jokic steps off the basketball court.

The three-time MVP has been unstoppable this postseason, and you could make a good argument to back him on any market.

I want to tap into Jokic’s elite passing abilities on Tuesday night.

Jokic was second in APG (10.2) during the regular season.

Entering postseason play on April 28, he’s second in APG (10.8) while playing a league-high 42.3 minutes per night.

He’s also first in potential APG (19.5) this postseason, which nba.com classifies as a pass leading directly to a shot.

Jokic has cleared this line in three of four games this series and had eight assists in the outlier.

Los Angeles allowed the fifth-most assists per game to centres this season, according to Fantasy Pros.

Clippers vs. Nuggets prop picks made at 4:20 p.m. ET 04/28/2025.

Clippers vs. Nuggets prop picks Game 5: Bet on Norman Powell and Nikola Jokic to produce

The Los Angeles Clippers and Denver Nuggets head back to altitude on Tuesday with their first-round series tied 2-2.

The pregame narrative: Nikola Jokic has done it all for the Nuggets through four games, which is to be expected. Norman Powell, meanwhile, has turned in an efficient shooting performance. I’m betting on each player to produce in Denver.

Check out my Clippers vs. Nuggets prop picks for Game 5 of the NBA first-round playoff series.

Clippers vs. Nuggets picks

Best Bet: Powell over 2.5 threes (+110)

Kawhi Leonard and James Harden are the No. 1 and 2 options for L.A., and that’s fine.

Powell has settled into the tertiary scoring role nicely, averaging 16.8 PPG this series and shooting 42.3% from deep.

The former Toronto Raptor is playing big minutes (33.8 a night) and has attempted eight 3s in consecutive games. He cleared this line in both outings.

Powell hit a pair of 3s in Games 1 and 2, so it’s not like he was far off from a clean sweep.

I’m most encouraged by the type of looks Powell’s getting.

He’s attempting 3.3 “wide open” 3s a night, according to nba.com. That’s categorized as a shot where the nearest defender is further than six feet away.

Unsurprisingly, having Harden and Leonard stretch the floor is leading to better looks.

Denver’s biggest problem defensively is limiting 3s. Dating back to the regular season, it allows the 10th-most 3s per game (14.1) at the sixth-highest rate (36.6%).

Key stat: Powell averaged career highs in 3s (3.0) and 3-point attempts (7.1) this season.

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Game 5 prop prediction

Jokic over 9.5 assists (-108): Just how much can one man do? I feel like we’re asking that question nearly every time Jokic steps off the basketball court.

The three-time MVP has been unstoppable this postseason, and you could make a good argument to back him on any market.

I want to tap into Jokic’s elite passing abilities on Tuesday night.

Jokic was second in APG (10.2) during the regular season.

Entering postseason play on April 28, he’s second in APG (10.8) while playing a league-high 42.3 minutes per night.

He’s also first in potential APG (19.5) this postseason, which nba.com classifies as a pass leading directly to a shot.

Jokic has cleared this line in three of four games this series and had eight assists in the outlier.

Los Angeles allowed the fifth-most assists per game to centres this season, according to Fantasy Pros.

Clippers vs. Nuggets prop picks made at 4:20 p.m. ET 04/28/2025.

NBA playoff parlay picks April 29: Take an alt over in Celtics vs. Magic, back Knicks to win

Tuesday night features a four-pack of NBA games, and I’ve got picks from three of them in this +269 parlay.

The pregame narrative: The New York Knicks try to close out their series at home against the Detroit Pistons, and I say they do it. I’m also backing a pair of alt totals, including the over in the Orlando Magic vs. Boston Celtics matchup.

Check out my NBA parlay picks for first-round playoff action on April 29.

NBA parlay picks

Parlay: Knicks ML | Clippers/Nuggets u212.5 points | Magic/Celtics o196.5 points (+265)

Knicks moneyline (-225): The Knicks were lucky to get out of Detroit with a pair of wins. Those games were decided by a combined three points, and one ended on a blown foul called (as admitted by the Game 3 crew chief).

Nonetheless, I think it’s closing time for this series.

Detroit really needed to win one at home, and now New York is back inside Madison Square Garden, where the home team is 28-11 as a favourite this season.

Jalen Brunson is clearly not at full strength, but he’s the best player in this series and it shows. He has 12-plus points in the fourth quarter of all four games.

Another tight game wouldn’t be surprising at all, which is why I’m simply making a moneyline pick for this matchup.

More NBA parlay legs

Clippers/Nuggets under 212.5 points (-175): Unders are 4-0 in this series, and I like for that trend to continue.

The highest-scoring game was the series opener, but only because of overtime. In regulation, none of the four games have surpassed 207 points.

A key reason for the limited offence has been the teams’ willingness to play a slow, methodical brand of basketball. They’re averaging just 91.13 possessions per game, which is the second-lowest of the eight series.

And that’s more than five possessions/game lower than the slowest team during the regular season (Magic, 96.51).

Unders are 4-1 when the Nuggets and Clippers face off in Denver, too.

Magic/Celtics over 196.5 points (-163): Betting the over when these two teams meet is scary, but it’s reasonable at this number.

The average total in seven head-to-head matchups between the Magic and Celtics this year is 198.6 points.

At this alt total, overs are 4-3.

The venue could make a difference as well, given that games tend to be more high-scoring in Boston than in Orlando.

Dating back to December 2023, these teams have averaged 212.6 total points in five matchups at TD Garden, cashing this bet four times.

Also, overs are 14-9 this year when Orlando is a road underdog, per Team Rankings.

NBA parlay picks made at 3:55 p.m. ET 04/28/2025.

NBA playoff parlay picks April 29: Take an alt over in Celtics vs. Magic, back Knicks to win

Tuesday night features a four-pack of NBA games, and I’ve got picks from three of them in this +269 parlay.

The pregame narrative: The New York Knicks try to close out their series at home against the Detroit Pistons, and I say they do it. I’m also backing a pair of alt totals, including the over in the Orlando Magic vs. Boston Celtics matchup.

Check out my NBA parlay picks for first-round playoff action on April 29.

NBA parlay picks

Parlay: Knicks ML | Clippers/Nuggets u212.5 points | Magic/Celtics o196.5 points (+269)

Knicks moneyline (-230): The Knicks were lucky to get out of Detroit with a pair of wins. Those games were decided by a combined three points, and one ended on a blown foul called (as admitted by the Game 3 crew chief).

Nonetheless, I think it’s closing time for this series.

Detroit really needed to win one at home, and now New York is back inside Madison Square Garden, where the home team is 28-11 as a favourite this season.

Jalen Brunson is clearly not at full strength, but he’s the best player in this series and it shows. He has 12-plus points in the fourth quarter of all four games.

Another tight game wouldn’t be surprising at all, which is why I’m simply making a moneyline pick for this matchup.

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More NBA parlay legs

Clippers/Nuggets under 212.5 points (-162): Unders are 4-0 in this series, and I like for that trend to continue.

The highest-scoring game was the series opener, but only because of overtime. In regulation, none of the four games have surpassed 207 points.

A key reason for the limited offence has been the teams’ willingness to play a slow, methodical brand of basketball. They’re averaging just 91.13 possessions per game, which is the second-lowest of the eight series.

And that’s more than five possessions/game lower than the slowest team during the regular season (Magic, 96.51).

Unders are 4-1 when the Nuggets and Clippers face off in Denver, too.

Magic/Celtics over 196.5 points (-175): Betting the over when these two teams meet is scary, but it’s reasonable at this number.

The average total in seven head-to-head matchups between the Magic and Celtics this year is 198.6 points.

At this alt total, overs are 4-3.

The venue could make a difference as well, given that games tend to be more high-scoring in Boston than in Orlando.

Dating back to December 2023, these teams have averaged 212.6 total points in five matchups at TD Garden, cashing this bet four times.

Also, overs are 14-9 this year when Orlando is a road underdog, per Team Rankings.

NBA parlay picks made at 3:00 p.m. ET 04/28/2025.

Rockets vs. Warriors SGP predictions Game 4: Bet on Curry, Butler to guide Golden State

The Golden State Warriors hope to have Jimmy Butler back tonight to help them stay ahead of the Houston Rockets in their first-round playoff matchup.

The pregame narrative: I’m backing Butler on a very modest assists prop, while Steph Curry and Amen Thompson should be relied upon to put up points. This four-leg, +420 SGP also features an alt total.

Check out my Rockets vs. Warriors playoff SGP predictions for April 28.

Rockets vs. Warriors predictions

Parlay: Under 208.5 points | Curry 25+ points | Butler 4+ assists | Thompson 10+ points (+420)

Under 208.5 points (-205): Once again, the under cashed in Game 3 of this series. That marks seven consecutive unders when Houston and Golden State square off.

It makes sense, given that both teams ranked inside the top eight in scoring defence and defensive rating during the regular season.

The average point total in their eight head-to-head meetings is 200.8 points.

Houston and Golden State have now gone seven consecutive games in which one or both teams finished below 100 points.

In the playoffs, the Warriors’ defence ranks third in steals per game and opponent points on fast breaks. The Rockets’ defensive strength has been clogging the paint, where they’re allowing the second-fewest points of any playoff team.

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NBA SGP legs

Curry 25+ points (-186): Curry has been superb in this series, cresting the 30-point mark twice in three games.

Houston is typically one of the best 3-point defences in the league … but Curry is no average foe. He’s 14-of-31 from deep and should continue firing from the outside.

Curry’s 24.5 PPG scoring average this year was his lowest in a full season since 2014-15. But he knows how to turn it up in the playoffs.

Over his past 16 playoff games — dating back to 2023 — Curry is averaging 30.2 PPG.

He has 25+ points in 13 of those 16 matchups.

Butler’s potential return could mean fewer shooting opportunities, but I still expect Curry to reach this milestone.

In his past 25 games alongside Butler, Curry is averaging 26.5 PPG.

Butler 4+ assists (-435): I considered playing Butler over 5.5 assists as a straight wager. This dumbed-down milestone should be comfortably attainable.

Prior to going down with an injury in Game 2, Butler had averaged 5.9 APG with the Warriors in 31 games.

During his regular-season tenure with Golden State, Butler led the team in assists (5.9/game) and potential assists (12.6).

Butler had 4+ assists in 27 of 31 games when healthy for the Warriors.

He may have the nickname “Jimmy Buckets,” but Butler is more than capable of swinging to an open teammate.

Thompson 10+ points (-235): Thompson made strides across the board in his sophomore season as he took more ownership within the Rockets’ offence.

He’s still not an outside scoring threat, but he’s always in play for 10 or more points.

Thompson has 30 points in this series, going 2-1 against this line. He missed out in the series opener with eight points on nine shots (uncharacteristically going 0-for-4 from the free-throw line).

Since the start of the season, Thompson has 10+ points in 6 of 8 meetings with the Warriors.

Last time out, Thompson was just 5-of-16 from the floor and finished with 11 points. I’m choosing to take that shot volume as a positive moving forward.

Thompson averaged 14.1 PPG during the regular season and had a 73.9% hit rate on this milestone.

Rockets vs. Warriors predictions made at 12:10 p.m. ET 04/28/2025.

NBA playoff prop bets April 28: Bet on Davion Mitchell, fade Fred VanVleet

I’m fading one guard and backing another for Monday night’s NBA playoff doubleheader.

The pregame narrative: Davion Mitchell has been an unsung star of the first round for the soon-to-be-bounced Miami Heat. I’m sticking with what has been a very profitable prop market for him, while Fred VanVleet has solid value on an under.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for first-round playoff action on April 28.

NBA prop bets

Best Bet: Mitchell over 18.5 points/assists (-118)

I know this isn’t the flashiest play out there, but I keep coming back to it because it keeps cashing.

The ex-Toronto Raptor is 10-4 against this prop since March 23.

Mitchell has been the primary ball-handler for the Heat in their first-round series, but he’s also had to take matters into his own hands when teammates’ shots aren’t falling.

So far in the postseason, Mitchell is averaging 17.7 potential assists per game, which refers to passes that immediately lead to a shot. And that’s the third-highest among all playoff performers.

But Mitchell is only averaging 6.7 assists, meaning a 37.9% conversion rate on his potential assists. Other primary passers like Tyrese Haliburton, James Harden and Jalen Brunson are all over 60.0%.

I take this to mean that Mitchell could see some positive regression if the pass volume holds. But also, it might be further incentive for him to continue shooting.

Mitchell is 22-for-32 (68.8 FG%) from the floor in the playoffs. He has 16-plus points in each game.

It’s fair to think his shooting efficiency will regress, but the passing side of things should make up for that.

This might be the last game of the year to bet on Mitchell in this market, and I’m not going to miss out.

Key stat: In the first round, Mitchell is averaging 17.3 points and 6.7 assists (24.0 PA) against the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Best NBA picks

VanVleet under 2.5 threes (+100): Betting against VanVleet failed me in Game 4, as he slogged his way to 17 points on 5-for-14 shooting.

I still think he’s generally worth fading, though, and at an even-money price, I think this is the right way to do it.

VanVleet is 6-for-29 (20.7%) from 3-point range in this series. Yes, that’s a lot of 3s, and therein lies the risk. But he’s just not hitting them at anything close to a respectable clip.

That’s been a theme for the veteran guard all year against the Golden State Warriors.

Under 2.5 threes is 5-2 when VanVleet faces the Warriors, and he’s shooting 21.3% from deep in those games. Playing the averages, I see enough value here to buy in.

NBA prop picks made at 11:00 a.m. ET on 04/28/2025.