Category: NBA

Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets look to wrap up their first-round series on Thursday night on the road against the Los Angeles Clippers.

The pregame narrative: Jokic is coming off a quiet night offensively, but I’m backing the big man to clear his points total. On L.A.’s side of things, James Harden looks like a prime fade candidate.

Check out my Clippers vs. Nuggets prop picks for Game 6 of the NBA first-round playoff series.

Clippers vs. Nuggets picks

Best Bet: Jokic over 27.5 points (-113)

Coming off his worst offensive game of the series, is this really the time to back Jokic?

I think so, because Jokic should enter Game 6 with a little more tread on his tires after taking a backseat to Jamal Murray last time out.

Jokic shot just 4-for-13 en route to a 13-point triple-double. Four of his Nuggets teammates outscored him, led by Murray (43 points) and Aaron Gordon (23).

Don’t let one game fool you, though. Jokic is still the leader of the pack in all facets for Denver, and he should be back in the centre of things for Game 6.

The Clippers are one of the best home teams in basketball. As they push to keep their season alive, Jokic should be the one tasked with leading Denver’s offence.

When he last played at Intuit Dome in Game 4, Jokic had 36 points on 14-of-25 shooting.

The three-time MVP averaged a career-best 29.6 PPG this season. He has cashed this bet in 40 of 75 games, regular season and playoffs included.

With 51.1/44.0/71.0 shooting splits in this series, Jokic is always capable of turning it on when his shot volume is high enough.

Key stat: In his past nine potential close-out games, dating back to 2023, Jokic has averaged 30.6 PPG. He’s 7-2 against this prop in those games.

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Game 5 prop prediction

Harden under 20.5 points (-109): Harden was excellent in Game 1 of this series, scoring 32 points on 11-of-22 shooting. But he’s been on the decline ever since.

Look at Harden’s shot totals, in order, as the series has progressed: 22, 17, 14, 11 and 9.

That’s right, he only took nine shots in Game 5, behind guys like Ivica Zubac and Bogdan Bogdanovic.

This isn’t a new phenomenon for Harden, who has made a habit of disappearing in critical moments of previous postseasons.

In elimination games in 2022-24, Harden shot a combined 12-for-36 (.333) and scored just 36 total points. He went 0-3 against this points prop.

Harden has also fallen under 20.5 points in four straight games.

Nuggets vs. Clippers prop picks made at 3:40 p.m. ET 04/30/2025.

The Golden State Warriors look to wrap up their series with the Houston Rockets.

The pregame narrative: Golden State is up 3-1 and should have Jimmy Butler in the lineup, which makes a big difference for its chances to succeed. I’ll back the Warriors on an alternate spread with two prop picks on Alperen Sengun and Steph Curry in this +310 SGP.

Check out my Warriors vs. Rockets playoff SGP predictions for Game 5 on April 30.

Warriors vs. Rockets predictions

Parlay: Warriors +7.5 | Sengun 10+ rebounds | Curry over 5.5 assists (+310)

Warriors +7.5 (-205): The Warriors had a scary moment in Game 2 when Butler left after just seven minutes of action. They went on to lose that game in Houston by 15.

Butler returned for Game 4, however, scoring 27 points and leading Golden State to a 109-106 win. This series is notably different when he’s involved.

• The Warriors went 23-7 with Butler in the lineup during the regular season.

• They are 3-0 in this series when Butler plays the full game.

Butler is on the injury report, listed as probable, so I’m not worried about his availability.

I don’t hate Golden State’s chances of leaving Houston with the series win, but this spread gives us a huge cushion on the away side in case the Rockets squeak one out.

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NBA SGP legs

Sengun 10+ rebounds (-215): The Rockets’ big man has been a consistent force on the boards in this series.

He cleared this total in three of four games, finishing with nine in the outlier.

It isn’t very surprising considering the Warriors run Draymond Green a lot at centre. An elite defender, no doubt, but at 6-foot-6, he gives up five inches to Sengun.

Containing opposing bigs has been a problem all season long for Golden State. It gave up the third-most rebounds to centres per game (16.32) during the regular season, per Fantasy Pros.

Sengun should see a lot of run in this must-win game, which means more opportunities for rebounds.

He’s averaging 11.5 boards so far in the playoffs.

Curry over 5.5 assists (-110): Curry has had mixed results against this line in this series.

He’s 2-2 on this wager, finishing with nine assists twice and three assists in the other two games.

What I am interested in, though, is his 11.3 potential assists per game. That stat tracks every pass Curry makes that leads directly to a shot for a teammate.

He’s also playing north of 39 minutes a night, so he should easily get over 10 potential assists again.

In that case, it’s on the other Warriors, and I have increased confidence in them with Butler in the mix.

Warriors vs. Rockets predictions made at 9:35 a.m. ET 04/30/2025.

The Los Angeles Lakers need a win to stay alive, as they host the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 5 on Wednesday night.

The pregame narrative: I like Naz Reid to chip in for the T-Wolves and for the visitors to at least keep this one close. On the Lakers’ side, look for LeBron James and Rui Hachimura to play big minutes and put up numbers.

Check out my Timberwolves vs. Lakers playoff SGP predictions for Game 5 on Wednesday, April 30.

Lakers vs. Timberwolves predictions

Parlay: Timberwolves +9.5 | LeBron 8+ rebounds | Hachimura 2+ threes | Reid 10+ points (+525)

Timberwolves +9.5 (-215): The Lakers looked like they were going to even the series in Game 4, as they carried a nine-point lead into the final nine minutes.

But L.A.’s stars got tired, and Minnesota’s depth shone through.

Depth is a key differentiator in this series, and it’s a key reason why I wouldn’t count the T-Wolves out in any game.

The Lakers have five players at 140-plus minutes in this series. And nobody else with 75 or more.

The Timberwolves have three players at 140-plus minutes and five others at 75 minutes or more. So we’re talking about a true eight-man rotation versus a non-rotation.

Minnesota is 5-3 ATS and SU against L.A. this year. More importantly, the T-Wolves have covered a +9.5 spread in all eight games.

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NBA SGP legs

LeBron 8+ rebounds (-295): Coming off three straight games with 10-plus rebounds, this should be a perfectly attainable milestone for LeBron.

• He has 8+ rebounds in 5 of 6 games vs. Minnesota since December (averaging 10.5 RPG in that span).

• LeBron has 8+ rebounds in 18 of 25 playoff games since the start of 2023.

I don’t imagine LeBron will play 46 minutes again like in Game 4. But he’s going to be on the court as much as anybody, and the 6-foot-9 positionless superstar knows how to crash the boards.

Hachimura 2+ threes (-150): Hachimura is in JJ Redick’s circle of trust, as evidenced by his 41-minute workload in Game 4.

The Japanese forward made his minutes count, going 5-of-10 from 3-point range as part of a 23-point performance.

I expect another hearty workload for Hachimura, and if that pans out, he’ll see some quality looks from beyond the arc.

Hachimura is 10-of-23 (43.5%) from deep in this series and has cashed this bet three times. During the regular season, he was a 41.3% shooter beyond the arc.

Reid 10+ points (-167): Reid was stellar in Game 1, burying 6-of-9 threes as part of a 23-point effort off the bench.

He’s been a more modest contributor in the games since, but he’s still 3-1 against this scoring milestone overall in the series.

Reid, a likely free-agent-to-be, has 10-plus points in 61 of 84 games this year (72.6%). He averaged 14.2 PPG during the regular season and has already flashed his upside in the playoffs.

Timberwolves vs. Lakers predictions made at 10:20 a.m. ET 04/30/2025.

Jimmy Butler was a force in his return, and I expect another strong outing in Wednesday’s Game 5 matchup between the Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets.

The pregame narrative: Alongside Butler, I’m backing Houston’s Amen Thompson to make noise as a rebounder. The Rockets need a win to keep their season alive.

Check out my Warriors vs. Rockets prop picks for Game 5 of the opening round.

Warriors vs. Rockets prop picks

Best Bet: Butler over 18.5 points (-127)

After sitting out Game 3 with a pelvic injury, Butler’s stat line for Game 4 was anybody’s guess.

He came up big for the Warriors, finishing with 27 points in 40 minutes to lead them to a narrow victory. And that gives me faith that he can stay heavily involved with the series shifting back to Houston.

Butler’s 27-point night did include 12 free-throw attempts, but that’s not as fluky as it sounds.

The savvy vet is used to getting to the line with regularity, as he averaged 7.7 free-throw attempts with Golden State during the regular season.

Butler went 10-of-19 with six free throws in a 25-point showing during Game 1, then he got hurt in the first quarter of Game 2.

In Game 4, he attempted 12 shots to go with the 12 free-throw attempts. That’s plenty of volume to make this points prop attainable.

It’s been a defence-first series, but Butler is a central figure in Golden State’s offence and doesn’t seem hampered by his recent injury.

Key stat: Dating back to the start of the 2023 postseason, Butler has averaged 25.9 PPG and cashed this bet in 21 of 25 games.

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Game 5 prop prediction

Thompson over 6.5 rebounds (-137): There’s a fair bit of juice on this prop, but I’d say it’s warranted.

• Thompson averaged 8.2 rebounds this season, going over 6.5 boards in 45 of 69 games (65.2%).

• The implied probability of -137 odds is 57.8%.

• Thompson has 7+ rebounds in 6 of 9 matchups vs. Golden State this year, landing on exactly six boards in two of the outliers.

Golden State has committed to playing a small-ball lineup for most of this series, featuring 6-foot-6 Draymond Green at centre.

Thompson (6-foot-7) is big enough — and certainly athletic enough — to impose his will on the glass.

Rockets vs. Warriors prop picks made at 3:45 p.m. ET 04/29/2025.