The Houston Rockets host the Golden State Warriors on Sunday in a winner-take-all Game 7.
The pregame narrative: Houston rallied behind Fred VanVleet, who scored 55 combined points facing elimination, to erase a 3-1 series deficit. The Rockets look to avoid a fifth straight playoff elimination at the hands of Steph Curry and are a 2.5-point favourite as of Sunday morning.
Jimmy Butler, Curry and VanVleet factor into my +290 Warriors vs. Rockets SGP predictions for Game 7 on May 4.
Warriors vs. Rockets predictions
Parlay: Under 210.5 points | Curry 20+ points | VanVleet 2+ threes | Butler 6+ rebounds (+290)
Under 215.5 points (-295): Every inch of the court will be contested on Sunday, and I’m expecting a rock fight.
- Houston and Golden State both ranked inside the top 11 in defensive rating and opponent field-goal percentage during the regular season.
- They’re averaging 93.92 possessions a game this series, in the middle of the eight first-round matchups. For context, the Warriors and Rockets played around a 99-possession pace during the regular season.
The under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between this teams. The over did cash in Games 4-6 but one of those games totalled 215 points and one was a blowout where starters were rested in the second half.
NBA SGP legs
Curry 20+ points (-375): Curry has ripped the hearts out of Rockets fans for a literal decade and now has a chance to twist the knife again.
The guard is averaging 24.3 PPG this series and has cleared this line in four of six games. He only played 23 minutes in one of the outliers and took just 13 shots (scoring 17 points) in the other.
I can’t imagine a scenario where either of those happens in Game 7.
Curry will be playing max minutes and firing at will, and is also going up against a team which allowed the most PPG to point guards this season, per Fantasy Pros.
He has reached this milestone in 22 of his last 25 playoff games.
VanVleet 2+ threes (-480): I was debating taking VanVleet 3+ threes — which would bring this wager from +290 to +440 — but am opting for some safety with this heavily-juiced leg.
But you can make a strong argument to take on more risk, because the PG’s performance has been night-and-day since Game 3:
- Game 1-3: 11.3 PPG, 20.7 3PT% (6-of-29)
- Game 4-6: 26.7 PPG, 66.7 3PT% (18-of-27)
VanVleet has hit three-plus 3s in four straight games, logging six, four, and eight in his last three outings. He’s attempting 9.3 threes per game, so this should be a cinch even if he has an awful shooting night.
Butler 6+ rebounds (-182): Butler has been right around this line all series.
He has five-plus boards in every contest (excluding Game 2, where he left early with an injury), going 2-2 against this line.
Starting Draymond Green at the No. 5 makes Golden State an undersized group. That helps Houston rebound, but it also affords opportunities to the 6-foot-7 Butler, who plays with a dogged determination.
Butler had a series-high nine rebounds in Game 6, and I expect him to build off that on Sunday.
Warriors vs. Rockets predictions made at 10:00 a.m. ET 05/04/2025.