Category: NBA

Friday night serves up an NBA playoff doubleheader, and I’ve got three prop bets to cover the action.

The pregame narrative: First up, the Indiana Pacers carry a 2-0 lead into their home arena against the top-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers — and the spread for Game 3 is pretty tight. Later on, the Oklahoma City Thunder look to build off a dominant Game 2 victory and will be road favourites against the Denver Nuggets.

I’ve got NBA prop bets on Bennedict Mathurin, Lu Dort and Nikola Jokic for Friday, May 9.

NBA prop bets

Best Bet: Mathurin over 11.5 points (-118)

The Pacers’ depth can make it difficult to win in the prop market. Sometimes it’s tough to tell who the star(s) will be in any particular game.

Mathurin isn’t a star, but he’s filled a consistent enough role to win me over.

• Through two games this series, his 23.5% usage rate is the highest among Pacers players.

• Mathurin made 49 starts during the regular season, but he seems to be locked into a bench role now. No problem. He’s averaging 14.0 PPG in 29 games off the bench this year (regular season and playoffs).

The Montreal native scored 19 points last time out. He’s had 10 field-goal attempts and 20 minutes of action in both games of this series.

If that kind of volume persists, this line is only going to go up.

The third-year wing averaged 16.8 PPG this season, clearing this total in 52 of 72 games. That’s not a completely fair way of looking at things since he’s no longer a starter, but it shows what he’s capable of.

And even in a slightly reduced role, Mathurin has proven his value for the Pacers.

Key stat: Mathurin has gone over 11.5 points in 28 of 39 home games this season, including two of three in the postseason.

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Best NBA picks

Jokic 2+ threes (-122): If you wanted to describe Jokic, the term “elite 3-point shooter” wouldn’t be one of the first things that came to mind.

But in small doses, that’s what he’s been this season. And the shot volume is just enough that I’m content backing him to can multiple 3s at a price like this.

• Jokic has 2+ threes in 6 of 9 playoff games — and in 47 of 79 games (59.5%) for the year.

• In the postseason, he’s averaging 2.0 makes on 4.6 attempts (43.9 3PT%).

Jokic struggled mightily in Game 2, shooting 6-of-16 from the floor. But he did cash this prop on 2-of-4 shooting from deep and will now try to cash this milestone for a third straight game.

During the regular season, Jokic averaged 2.2 threes on 42.7% shooting in 36 home games.

Dort 10+ points (-136): Dort has fired nine 3-point attempts in both games so far this series. That has my attention.

All 18 of those triples came as either “open” (4-to-6 feet of separation) or “wide open” (6 or more feet of separation), according to NBA.com’s shot tracking data.

That means OKC is creating plenty of quality looks for Dort, and he’s letting it fly.

The Montreal native has 26 points against the Nuggets in the conference semis, cashing this bet in both games. He averaged 10.1 PPG during the regular season.

NBA prop picks made at 2:55 p.m. ET on 05/08/2025.

The Minnesota Timberwolves look to even their second-round series against the Golden State Warriors on home court Thursday night.

The pregame narrative: Steph Curry has been ruled out for Game 2 and will likely miss at least a game or two after that. Unsurprisingly, Minnesota is a sizeable favourite in a game with rock fight potential.

Check out my Warriors vs. Timberwolves Game 2 best bets for Thursday, May 8, featuring an over/under pick and prop bets on Naz Reid and Draymond Green.

Warriors vs. Timberwolves best bets

Best Bet: Reid over 12.5 points (-110)

Reid was the only true bright spot on offence for the Timberwolves in Game 1. He finished with 19 points on 8-of-14 shooting off the bench.

Despite being a bench player, Reid gets plenty of minutes. So don’t let that deter you. He played 34 minutes last time out and should continue getting plenty of run based on his efforts.

Reid also takes about half of his shots from beyond the arc, creating the opportunity to do more with less. He’s shooting 48.3% from deep in the postseason so far, averaging 2.3 makes per game.

• Reid has attempted 5+ threes in all five games vs. Golden State this season.

• He has 15+ points in three straight vs. GSW.

This isn’t a huge point total for a guy who has solid 3-point volume and can get hot any given night.

Minnesota needs an injection of offence after a woeful performance in the series opener. Reid should be able to provide that.

Key stat: Reid averaged 14.2 PPG during the regular season. Across all games this year, he’s gone over 12.5 points in 49 of 86 matchups (57.0%).

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More Game 2 predictions

Under 201.5 points (-108): Offence was awfully difficult to come by in Game 1, which the Warriors won by a score of 99-88. I doubt things will get easier with the best shooter of all time on the bench.

Curry, who’s given the Warriors 25-plus points on a nightly basis for a decade, leaves a huge hole in Golden State’s offensive plans.

When the Warriors have played without Curry this season, unders are 8-4.

Unders are also 12-9 when Golden State is a road underdog, according to Team Rankings.

Minnesota’s 5-for-29 (17.2%) showing from 3-point range likely won’t be repeated, but let’s give some credit to team defence, too.

The T-Wolves and Warriors ranked sixth and seventh, respectively, in defensive rating during the regular season.

Green over 11.5 rebounds/assists (-115): Without Curry on the court, I expect Green to step up as a facilitator.

Green did have six assists last time out — to go with eight rebounds — and if he gets back to that mark on Thursday I like the chances of this bet cashing.

• In the postseason, Green leads the Warriors in passes per game (55.0). He’s also third in potential assists per game (8.0), behind Jimmy Butler (10.7) and Curry (10.3).

• Green has been primarily playing centre in the postseason and is averaging 5.9 rebounds.

In three matchups against Minnesota this season, Green is 3-0 against this prop. And that was with Curry starting each time.

Warriors vs. Timberwolves best bets made at 3:30 p.m. ET 05/07/2025.

The NBA’s two prominent MVP contenders, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic, will be in the spotlight on Wednesday night in Game 2 of their second-round series.

The pregame narrative: Jokic guided the Denver Nuggets to a comeback victory in Game 1, but both he and Gilgeous-Alexander lived up to expectations with their performances. The Oklahoma City Thunder can ill afford to drop both games at home before the series shifts to Denver.

I’m backing SGA and Jokic in my Nuggets vs. Thunder prop picks for Game 2 on May 7.

Game 2 Boost: Thunder -9.5, Gilgeous-Alexander 35+ points & Jalen Williams 20+ points. Bet now!

Nuggets vs. Thunder prop picks

Best Bet: Jokic over 22.5 rebounds and assists (-115)

I was really hoping this line would be the same as it was in Game 1.

It is, and I’m eager to buy back in.

Jokic was an animal in the series opener, putting up 42 points (15-of-29 shooting), 22 rebounds and six assists in 42 minutes.

That’s right, the Joker almost cashed this bet on rebounds alone. And with a 30-pound advantage over OKC centre Isaiah Hartenstein, I expect rebounds to continue coming in bunches.

Assuming Jokic’s rebound total regresses from 22, though, I know there’s more he can give as a passer.

His six assists in Game 1 were well below his season average (10.2). And he tallied eight-plus assists in all seven games in the first round.

If Jokic sees an uptick in his assist volume — which he should, given that he’s averaging 17.4 potential assists per game in the playoffs — I’m confident that his rebounding floor is high enough to make this a worthwhile play.

• During the regular season, the Thunder allowed the eighth-most rebounds per game to opposing centres (15.28), per Betting Pros.

• Jokic has 12+ rebounds in all five games vs. OKC this year.

Key stat: Jokic has averaged 27.4 RA against the Thunder this year, going 4-1 against this line. He had exactly 22 rebounds/assists in the outlier.

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Game 2 prop prediction

Gilgeous-Alexander over 45.5 points/rebounds/assists (-112): Much like he was a do-it-all player for Team Canada at the 2024 Paris Summer Games, Gilgeous-Alexander is at the centre of everything for the Thunder.

That was clear again in Game 1, when the Hamilton, Ontario native finished with team highs in points (33), rebounds (10) and assists (eight).

OKC likely views Game 2 as a must-win at home. That obviously doesn’t shape the outcome, but it does lead me to believe that SGA will have a sky-high usage rate.

After all, who better for the Thunder to call upon than the likely MVP-in-waiting?

In 40 home games this year, Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 33.4 points, 5.2 rebounds and 6.5 assists (45.1 PRA). Expect all systems go from SGA on Wednesday.

Nuggets vs. Thunder prop picks made at 2:18 p.m. ET 05/06/2025.

The Boston Celtics look to wipe the slate clean on Wednesday night and get even in their second-round matchup against the New York Knicks.

The pregame narrative: Boston put forth a dreadful shooting performance in the series opener, causing the team to blow a 20-point lead in the second half. New York is 4-0 on the road so far this postseason.

Check out my Knicks vs. Celtics SGP predictions for Game 2 on May 7, featuring Derrick White and Josh Hart.

Knicks vs. Celtics predictions

Parlay: Over 209.5 points | White 15+ points | Hart 8+ rebounds (+270)

Over 209.5 points (-129): The Celtics can’t be that bad again … can they?

I doubt it, which is a big reason why I like the over. Boston was a disastrous 15-of-60 from 3-point range in Game 1 despite getting a glut of open looks.

Game 1 did still cash the over on this point total because of the overtime period. But I’m not looking to rely on that happening again, either.

All four regular-season matchups between the Knicks and Celtics totalled at least 214 points in regulation.

Overs are 10-8-2 when the Knicks are underdogs this season and 29-20 in Knicks games when the teams have equal rest, per Team Rankings.

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NBA SGP legs

White 15+ points (-155): An inefficient night from White didn’t deter him from getting a bunch of shots up in Game 1. He finished with 19 points on 18 shots (5-of-16 from deep).

Unfortunately, we can’t rely on that type of shot volume from White. But we can be heartened by how often he has torched the Knicks this year.

• 5 games
• 18.6 PPG
• 48.4 FG%
• 47.1 3PT%
• 100.0 FT%

He’s 4-1 against this milestone scoring prop, and he finished with 14 points in the lone outlier.

There’s clearly enough room in the Celtics’ offence for White to hit this mark. After all, he averaged a career-high 16.4 PPG during the regular season.

Hart 8+ rebounds (-305): You have to watch Hart to really appreciate his game. When there’s a loose ball up for grabs, he goes into junkyard-dog mode in a blink.

At 6-foot-4, Hart is often undersized in rebounding battles. It just doesn’t seem to matter.

• He averaged 9.4 rebounds during the regular season, cashing this milestone in 54 of 77 games.

• So far in the playoffs, he has 7+ rebounds in all seven games (averaging 9.0 RPG).

Hart grabbed 11 boards against Boston in Game 1 — his third straight game against the Celtics with a double-digit rebound total.

Knicks vs. Celtics predictions made at 9:10 a.m. ET 05/07/2025.