Category: NBA

Joel Embiid has returned to form as an elite scorer and headlines Saturday’s NBA prop picks.

Tonight’s NBA props narrative: Embiid has been among the league’s hottest players in the last two weeks, and is worth backing against the New Orleans Pelicans. Elsewhere, Andrew Wiggins has a plus matchup against the Chicago Bulls.

Check out these NBA prop picks for Jan. 31, featuring a pick on Indiana Pacers guard Johnny Furphy.

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NBA prop picks Jan. 31

Best bet: Embiid over 28.5 points (-113)

There isn’t a wrong way to back Embiid tonight.

The former MVP has been on a rampage over his last six games, stuffing the stats sheet with remarkable efficiency:

• 33.2 PPG
• 9.0 RPG
• 5.2 APG
• 55.7 EFG%

He went over tonight’s 28.5 point total in each of those games and went over tonight’s 42.5 PRA total in five of them.

For simplicity’s sake, I’ll back Embiid as a scorer.

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He has taken at least 17 shots in each of his last six games while averaging 10.8 trips to the line. That’ll play from a volume standpoint.

I’m a big fan of Derik Queen, the Pelicans’ 6-foot-9 rookie centre out of Maryland, but I struggle to see how he will contain Embiid in the low post.

New Orleans sits 27th in defensive rating and allows the fifth-most points per game to opposing centres, per Fantasy Pros.

Key stat: Embiid has scored 37-plus points in four of his last five games against New Orleans.

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Best NBA picks

Wiggins over 16.5 points (-105): Wiggins has fallen under this line in three straight and had just 10 points against the Bulls on Thursday.

But I like the Canadian’s chances of bouncing back this evening.

Miami and Chicago play at the fastest and fifth-fastest pace (i.e. possessions per 48 minutes) in the league, per NBA.com. More possessions mean more opportunities to score.

Wiggins should be the benefactor with Norman Powell, Davion Mitchell and Tyler Herro all expected to be sidelined.

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Chicago is allowing the most points per game to opposing power forwards, and big man Nikola Vucevic is listed as doubtful to play.

Wiggins is averaging 15.6 PPG this year. Look for him to over-index based on this matchup.

NBA player prop predictions

Furphy over 5.5 rebounds (+123): Furphy, a 6-foot-8 shooting guard, isn’t doing much shooting at all.

The sophomore is averaging just 5.3 PPG, but has been a big contributor on the glass since re-entering the starting lineup on Jan. 4:

• 6.6 RPG
• 5+ rebounds in 11 of 13 games
• 6+ rebounds in 7 of 13 games

Furphy has cleared this line in three of his last four games and has a solid matchup against a Hawks team with a thin front court.

Onyeka Okongwu (7.3 RPG) is out, and Jalen Johnson (10.5 RPG) is questionable for Atlanta.

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NBA prop picks made at 9:50 a.m. ET on Jan. 31, 2026.

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The Detroit Pistons cap a three-game Western Conference road trip on Friday night with a showdown against the Golden State Warriors.

The pregame narrative: Detroit is 3-6 ATS in its past nine games, playing as a favourite in all of those matchups. Tonight, Golden State is a slight home favourite while playing with a rest advantage.

Check out my Pistons vs. Warriors SGP predictions for Jan. 30, featuring Jalen Duren and Brandin Podziemski.

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Pistons vs. Warriors SGP

Parlay: Warriors +3.5 | Duren to record a double-double | Podziemski over 4.5 assists (+390)

Warriors +3.5 (-210): My colleague Avery Perri backed the Pistons to win in Phoenix last night, and I was on board with that prediction.

But Detroit fell behind early and then forgot how to make a shot in the fourth quarter, which resulted in a 114-96 loss.

Playing on a back-to-back, I think the Pistons will lose again. But I’m going to bank some points with the Warriors just for a bit of extra cushion.

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• Golden State is 8-4 (SU and ATS) with a rest advantage this season, per Team Rankings.

• Dating back to January 2023, the Warriors have covered a +3.5 line in all five matchups vs. the Pistons (4-1 SU in that span).

The Warriors’ +7.1 net rating at home this season ranks sixth in the NBA.

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NBA SGP legs

Duren to record a double-double (-210): Duren has 10+ points in 35 of 39 games, so this is essentially a bet on him to secure 10+ rebounds.

And given that his 10-rebound prop is priced at -265, this seems like a more sensible way to back the young centre.

• Duren is averaging 17.9 points and 10.6 rebounds this season. He is 21-18 vs. this prop.

• Golden State allows the fourth-most rebounds per game to opposing centres, according to Fantasy Pros.

-> Back Duren vs. the Warriors

Assuming he plays — and there’s no reason to suspect he won’t — the lack of rest shouldn’t faze the 22-year-old.

In five games played on zero rest this season, Duren is averaging 18.0 points and 11.6 rebounds.

Podziemski over 4.5 assists (+120): Here’s where the SGP really takes a jump, from +128 to +390. But looking for five assists from Podziemski is well within range.

When Jimmy Butler went down with a season-ending knee injury, Podziemski was elevated to the Warriors’ starting lineup.

• In five games as a starter since then, Podziemski has accrued 29 assists and is 3-2 vs. this prop.

• He’s leading Golden State in potential assists (i.e., passes that lead directly to a shot) in that span, averaging 11.2 per game.

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Draymond Green is the Warriors’ leading passer, but he’s only at 5.3 APG. There’s plenty of room for Podziemski to make his mark as a facilitator, as he has already shown.

Pistons vs. Warriors SGP made at 12:30 p.m. on Jan. 30, 2026.

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If you want some star-powered NBA prop picks … these might not be for you. I’m going deep in my bag for Friday’s predictions, headlined by Collin Gillespie.

Tonight’s NBA props narrative: Gillespie, the undrafted point guard out of Villanova, has been huge from 3-point land in his third NBA season. Then there’s Boston centre Neemias Queta, in his first year as a starter, who draws a compelling matchup at home against a struggling opponent.

Check out these NBA prop picks for Jan. 30, featuring a pick on Brooklyn Nets point guard Egor Demin.

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NBA prop picks Jan. 30

Best bet: Gillespie over 2.5 threes (-139)

There’s a lot of extra juice on this prop, but I still think it’s in a reasonable range to play as a straight wager.

And the line is in a great spot for a guy who’s been among the most efficient 3-point shooters in the league this season.

• Among 96 players who’ve attempted five or more 3s per game, Gillespie’s 42.6 3PT% ranks seventh in the NBA.

• Over his past 20 games, Gillespie has shot 43.8% from deep. Only three players have a higher 3PT% this season.

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Gillespie has taken on a much greater offensive role this season. After attempting just 2.7 threes per game last year, he’s now making 3.0 threes per game (on 6.9 attempts).

Overall this season, Gillespie is 29-18 vs. this prop. More notably, he’s 7-1 in his past eight games with a 51.9 3PT%.

Bet on the Suns’ sharpshooter in a plus matchup against the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Key stat: Cleveland has allowed the third-highest opponent 3PT% in the NBA (37.4).

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Best NBA picks

Queta 20+ points/rebounds (-130): Queta is averaging 8.0 points and 10.0 rebounds this season, so he often falls just short of this mark. But the matchup tonight is quite compelling.

The Sacramento Kings, who Queta will face, have the third-worst defensive rating in the NBA.

They also allow the most points and the third-most rebounds to opposing centres, according to Fantasy Pros.

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Domantas Sabonis has been back for seven games after a two-month injury absence, and it seems like he’s close to returning to full strength. But the Kings just played last night, and there’s no guarantee Sabonis will suit up on zero rest.

After all, Sabonis hasn’t played both ends of a back-to-back since Nov. 11-12.

Queta is 6-6 vs. this prop in his past 12 games, and a plus matchup should put him over the edge.

NBA player prop predictions

Demin over 16.5 points/rebounds/assists (-134): The Nets gutted out a narrow loss at altitude last night in Denver, but Demin — who rarely plays back-to-backs — was in street clothes.

He should be back in action tonight as Brooklyn’s most rested player for a matchup in Utah.

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With that in mind, I like Demin’s chances of chipping in at this rather modest PRA total.

In his past 12 games, the rookie out of BYU is 12-6 vs. this prop while averaging 13.1 points, 2.8 rebounds and 3.2 assists.

The Jazz are an ideal matchup, given that they allow the most points overall, as well as the second-most points and assists to opposing point guards.

NBA prop picks made at 9:50 a.m. ET on Jan. 30, 2026.

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The NBA is saving arguably its best matchup for last tonight, as the Minnesota Timberwolves host the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The pregame narrative: Minnesota played last night in Dallas, which helps explain why the home team is a 7-point underdog against OKC. I’m locked in on some star power in this matchup, with a +400 SGP that features Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Anthony Edwards.

Check out my Thunder vs. Timberwolves SGP predictions for Jan. 29.

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Thunder vs. Timberwolves SGP

Parlay: Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points | Edwards 25+ points | Under 231.5 points (+400)

Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points (-180): It’s still a bit flippant to say you can pencil in 30 points for Gilgeous-Alexander on a nightly basis … but that’s not a gross exaggeration.

• The NBA’s reigning scoring champ (and MVP) is averaging 32.0 points this season, on track for a fourth straight year of 30.0+ PPG.

• He has 30+ points in 32 of 46 games this season.

• SGA diced up the Timberwolves in both previous matchups this season: 40 points (12-of-19 shooting) on Nov. 26, followed by 35 points (12-of-26 shooting) on Dec. 19.

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The Canadian superstar has the highest scoring floor in the league. He has at least 20 points in 118 straight games, which is eight shy of Wilt Chamberlain’s record (set in 1963).

I almost prefer when SGA is facing a quality opponent like Minnesota. Although the T-wolves’ defence will push him, that means he has a greater chance of playing a full workload and putting up enough shots for this bet to cash.

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NBA SGP legs

Edwards 25+ points (-148): This is a very interesting price for a guy who’s averaging 29.4 PPG. It says a lot about the respect that OKC’s defence has earned.

But Edwards has faced the Thunder’s superb defence (No. 1 in net rating, points allowed, and opponent FG%) twice this year. And he cashed this bet both times.

• Nov. 26: 31 points on 9-of-19 shooting (5-for-10 from 3-point range)

• Dec. 19: 26 points on 9-of-20 shooting (3-for-6 from 3-point range)

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Edwards is averaging 30.2 points over his past 12 games and is 9-3 vs. this milestone prop in that span. Look for him to put on a show at home with the defending champs in town.

Under 231.5 points (-195): Without this leg, the SGP’s odds are shorter than +200. It’s the negative correlation that really drives this thing home.

But given that two of the NBA’s best defences are on the court in Minneapolis tonight, I really do expect a fairly low-scoring game.

OKC’s high-level defensive accolades are listed above. As for Minnesota, the team ranks in the top five in both defensive rating and opponent FG%.

Unders are 17-7-0 when the Timberwolves are at home this season. Oh, and both head-to-head matchups between these teams finished with fewer than 220 total points.

Still, despite having played a pair of grind-it-out games already this season, Gilgeous-Alexander and Edwards scored 30+ and 25+ points, respectively, both times.

It’s quite possible for the stars to get their share of looks without it turning into a track meet.

Thunder vs. Timberwolves SGP predictions made at 12:30 p.m. on Jan. 29, 2026.

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Jamal Murray and the shorthanded Denver Nuggets host the Brooklyn Nets on Thursday night, and I’ve got a pair of player props worth targeting.

Tonight’s NBA props narrative: Murray torched the Nets back on Jan. 4, and he should be counted on to put up some big-time numbers again. On the other side, ex-Nugget Michael Porter Jr. is thriving as the primary scorer on a bad team.

Check out these NBA prop picks for Jan. 29, featuring a pick on Chicago Bulls point guard Coby White.

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NBA prop picks Jan. 29

Best bet: Murray 35+ points/assists (-136)

On any given night, Murray can go off as a scorer or a passer. He has 13 games this season with 30+ points, along with 11 games of 10+ assists.

When he faced the Nets earlier this month, the Kitchener, Ontario native had everything working. Despite taking a 12-point loss, Murray finished with game-high totals in points (27) and assists (16).

Murray has been a key cog in Denver’s machine for a long time, but he’s particularly crucial right now. Nikola Jokic, the three-time MVP who leads the team in points, rebounds and assists, has been out all month with a knee injury.

And Aaron Gordon, who’s third on the Nuggets in points and fourth in assists, is slated to miss tonight’s game as well.

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The Nets rank 26th in defensive rating, and they’re allowing the sixth-most assists per game. Murray is accustomed to a minutes workload in the mid-30s, which comes with ample stat-stuffing opportunities.

Going all the way back to Dec. 3, Murray is 14-9 vs. this prop (60.9%) while averaging 36.0 PA. And his numbers stand out even more than that.

Key stat: In 11 games without Jokic this season, Murray has averaged 36.3 PA and is 7-4 vs. this line (63.6%).

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Best NBA picks

Porter over 25.5 points (-110): Revenge game narratives can often get stretched too thin, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Porter was feeling some ill will toward his ex-employer.

After all, the Nuggets shipped him off to the lowly Nets this offseason, immediately extinguishing his chances of competing for a title.

But the move also freed up MPJ to take a boatload of shots, and he has happily obliged.

The former lottery pick, now in his seventh season, has taken more shots (18.6/game) and more 3s (9.4/game) than ever before. Naturally, that has led to a career-high scoring average (25.2 PPG).

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He really turned up the heat in December and has been particularly effective since then:

• 21 games
• 26.0 PPG
• 41.7 3PT%
• 14-7 vs. this prop

Porter dropped 27 points on Denver a few weeks ago, and I love his chances at a similar result tonight.

NBA player prop predictions

White over 4.5 assists (-134): I’m not in love with the price here, but I do believe in White’s ability to cash the bet.

• For the third straight season, White is averaging at least 4.5 assists. He’s currently at 4.7 APG in 26 games.

• White is 13-13 vs. this prop. After missing some time in the first two weeks of the month, he has averaged 5.1 APG over his past eight games.

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Based on his season-long stats, this prop is in coin-flip territory. What puts it over the edge, for me, is the matchup.

White will face the Miami Heat, who play at the fastest pace in the league. They allow the fifth-most assists per game, according to Fantasy Pros.

NBA prop picks made at 10 a.m. ET on Jan. 29, 2026.

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