Category: NBA

Pacers vs. Knicks prop picks Game 5: Fade Towns amid knee concerns, bet on Haliburton

Pacers vs. Knicks picks

The New York Knicks need a win on Thursday night to keep their season alive.

The pregame narrative: New York is a -175 favourite at home against the Indiana Pacers, who are one win away from their first NBA Finals appearance in 25 years. Indiana typically deploys a balanced approach, but Tyrese Haliburton exploded last game with a 32-point triple-double.

I’m targeting Haliburton and fading a banged-up Karl-Anthony Towns in my Pacers vs. Knicks prop picks for Game 5 on May 29.

Pacers vs. Knicks prop picks

Best bet: Haliburton over 9.5 assists (-122)

Haliburton is coming off an absolutely masterful performance against the Knicks in Game 4, when he finished with 32 points, 12 rebounds and 15 assists.

That matched his highest assist total of this playoff run and brought his postseason-long average up to 9.8 APG.

Haliburton, 24, has been an elite passer in the NBA for years now. Since being traded to the Pacers in the middle of 2021-22, he has averaged 10.1 assists in regular-season play.

Last year, Haliburton was the NBA assist leader (10.9 APG).

All of this is to say that a 10-assist night is well within reach for the Indiana point guard. After all, he’s cashed this bet in three of four games in this series — and eight of 14 in the playoffs.

One of the Pacers’ greatest strengths is their scoring depth. They had eight players this season who averaged north of 9.0 PPG.

What that tells me is that Haliburton has no shortage of scoring outlets to dish to. He leads the NBA playoffs in passes per game (76.1) and should continue to rack up assists.

Key stat: Haliburton is 4-2 vs. this prop when facing the Knicks this season, cashing the bet in both matchups in New York.

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Game 5 prop prediction

Towns under 21.5 points (-125): Towns is clearly playing hurt, and I’m sure he’ll gut it out again with the Knicks’ season on life support. I’m just skeptical about his ability to put up big numbers on a bad knee.

Towns suffered a knee-on-knee collision late in the fourth quarter of Game 4 and was in obvious pain. He stayed in, but he didn’t mask his discomfort.

Towns has gone over 21.5 points in three of four games in the Eastern Conference finals. But the under is still 9-7 for him at this number in the playoffs.

The 7-footer, who is officially listed as questionable with a knee contusion, is already a target on switches when Indiana gets into its half-court offence.

Assuming his mobility is hampered by this injury, Indiana should only attack him more. If so, that should lead to foul trouble or the necessity of a lineup change.

Knicks vs. Pacers prop picks made at 9:12 a.m. ET 05/29/2025.

Timberwolves vs. Thunder SGP predictions Game 5: Bet on Rudy Gobert, Anthony Edwards and Jalen Williams

Timberwolves vs. Thunder predictions

It’s do or die for the Minnesota Timberwolves on Wednesday night.

The pregame narrative: Minnesota needs to win or its season is over. And it will have to do it on the road against the No. 1-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder, who are 7-1 at home this postseason. I’m not picking a side, but I have combined four player props into a +440 same-game parlay recommendation.

Check out my Timberwolves vs. Thunder SGP predictions for Game 5 of the Western Conference finals on May 28, featuring plays on Rudy Gobert, Anthony Edwards and Jalen Williams.

Timberwolves vs. Thunder predictions

Parlay: Gobert 8+ rebounds | Edwards 25+ points | Williams 2+ threes & 4+ assists (+440)

Gobert 8+ rebounds (-175): These teams have split the battle of the boards 2-2. 

The Thunder outrebounded the Timberwolves in the first two games before Minnesota won the war in Games 3 and 4, its two best contests of the series. 

Minnesota was fifth in the NBA in rebounding rate, while the Thunder ranked 24th. With capable bodies on the glass, this should be an area of advantage for the T-wolves. 

And it’s Gobert who provides the biggest edge. 

  • Gobert is coming off his best game of the series, scoring 13 points and corralling nine rebounds. He finished around the rim and buried 3-of-6 free-throw attempts. 
  • The 7-foot-1 centre also guarded MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for large stretches, either picking him up past half court or helping in switches, and he proved competent doing so. 
  • His all-around effort led to a series-high 32 minutes.

Gobert’s minutes will partially depend on how the Thunder deploy their own bigs, but I think he’s likely to see a similar amount of floor time.

With that amount of run, Gobert should be able to crack this number. He averaged 10.9 rebounds in the regular season and is 8-3 against this milestone in his last 11 playoff games.

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NBA SGP legs

Edwards 25+ points (-190): If the Timberwolves go down, I don’t see how it happens without Edwards chucking. 

The star shooting guard was held in check in Game 4, facing constant double teams and pressure that led to a series-worst performance (16 points, 5-of-13 from the field, 1-of-7 on threes). 

Oklahoma City played him spectacularly, but that excuse can’t fly again in an elimination game. Edwards has to find a way and I expect to see a much more aggressive version of him tonight. 

An aggressive Edwards is getting to the line and firing from long range, a combination we’ve seen deployed frequently with good efficiency. 

The 23-year-old entered the Game 4 dud off back-to-back 30-plus-point performances and is averaging 25.8 PPG in the playoffs.

Jalen Williams Game 4 props

Williams 2+ threes (-134): This might be the leg I’m most worried about because Williams isn’t a volume 3-point shooter. 

But he’s been efficient from the perimeter this series (50.0% shooting) and dismantled the Timberwolves in Game 4. 

  • Minnesota had no answer for Williams, who dropped a playoff-high 34 points on 13-of-24 shooting.
  • He nailed 6-of-9 shots from deep, marking the third straight game he’s hit multiple triples. 
  • The first-time all-star is 10-5 against this line this postseason.

Williams 4+ assists (-335): This leg is an easy sell for me. It drives a +325 SGP to +440, and it has hit at a 93% rate in the playoffs. 

The Thunder’s 42-point Game 3 loss was the only time this postseason Williams failed to dish out four-plus assists. He was held to a playoff-low 25 minutes in the blowout.

That means he’s 14-1 against this line in the playoffs after averaging a career-high 5.1 assists in the regular season. 

No more explanation is needed.

Timberwolves vs. Thunder predictions made at 10:56 a.m. ET 05/28/2025.

Timberwolves vs. Thunder prop picks Game 5: Back Chet Holmgren to be productive for OKC

Timberwolves vs. Thunder picks

The Minnesota Timberwolves are on the brink of elimination and find themselves in a must-win situation on the road against the Oklahoma City Thunder on Wednesday night.

The pregame narrative: The Timberwolves suffered a heartbreaking 128-126 loss at home in Game 4. It was a failed effort to even the series, and now the Thunder are one game from reaching their first NBA Finals since the Kevin Durant era.

Check out my Timberwolves vs. Thunder prop picks on Chet Holmgren and Jaden McDaniels for Game 5 on May 28.

Timberwolves vs. Thunder prop picks

Best bet: Holmgren over 23.5 points/rebounds (-107)

The final piece of this Thunder roster was drafted second overall in 2022 before missing his entire rookie campaign.

Holmgren returned as a sophomore and rivalled Victor Wembanyama for Rookie of the Year before getting injured again at the start of this season.

Luckily, the 7-footer returned midway through the year and had enough time to prepare for this lengthy playoff run that isn’t over yet.

  • Holmgren is averaging 16.1 points and 8.7 rebounds in the playoffs.
  • That’s an improvement over his regular-season averages (15.0 points, 8.0 rebounds).
  • He’s 8-7 against this wager overall, but is 5-1 when playing 30-plus minutes.

When OKC wins, it often wins big. So Holmgren can fall victim to a bad game script.

But as the games get more important, Holmgren should see more run.

In Game 4, the 23-year-old scored 21 points (9-of-14 shooting) and grabbed seven rebounds in 33 minutes of action.

He’s averaging 17.0 points on 55.3% from the field in the Western Conference final.

Key stat: Holmgren has at least 22 points/rebounds in seven of eight home games this postseason, giving him a solid floor for this pick.

Game 5 prop predictions

McDaniels over 12.5 points (-125): McDaniels has been a consistent scorer for the Timberwolves in the postseason, and he’s coming off an excellent Game 4.

  • The 24-year-old is scoring 14.6 points and shooting 51.7% from the field, numbers that are well above his regular-season averages.
  • He has shot over 50% in 10 of 13 games.

McDaniels may be an underwhelming 7-6 against this line, but he’s done his best with the amount of shots he’s taking.

He has averaged 11.0 field-goal attempts per game in the playoffs, though he should see an uptick in volume in a must-win game for Minnesota.

McDaniels’ Game 4 performance certainly helped make the case.

With Anthony Edwards smothered on the defensive end, McDaniels hit 9-of-15 shots for 22 points.

Timberwolves vs. Thunder prop picks made at 10:25 a.m. ET 05/28/2025.

Timberwolves vs. Thunder prop picks Game 5: Back Chet Holmgren to be productive for OKC

Timberwolves vs. Thunder picks

The Minnesota Timberwolves are on the brink of elimination and find themselves in a must-win situation on the road against the Oklahoma City Thunder on Wednesday night.

The pregame narrative: The Timberwolves suffered a heartbreaking 128-126 loss at home in Game 4. It was a failed effort to even the series, and now the Thunder are one game from reaching their first NBA Finals since the Kevin Durant era.

Check out my Timberwolves vs. Thunder prop picks on Chet Holmgren and Jaden McDaniels for Game 5 on May 28.

Timberwolves vs. Thunder prop picks

Best bet: Holmgren over 24.5 points/rebounds (-107)

The final piece of this Thunder roster was drafted second overall in 2022 before missing his entire rookie campaign.

Holmgren returned as a sophomore and rivalled Victor Wembanyama for Rookie of the Year before getting injured again at the start of this season.

Luckily, the 7-footer returned midway through the year and had enough time to prepare for this lengthy playoff run that isn’t over yet.

  • Holmgren is averaging 16.1 points and 8.7 rebounds in the playoffs.
  • That’s an improvement over his regular-season averages (15.0 points, 8.0 rebounds).
  • He’s 8-7 against this wager overall, but is 5-1 when playing 30-plus minutes.

When OKC wins, it often wins big. So Holmgren can fall victim to a bad game script.

But as the games get more important, Holmgren should see more run.

In Game 4, the 23-year-old scored 21 points (9-of-14 shooting) and grabbed seven rebounds in 33 minutes of action.

He’s averaging 17.0 points on 55.3% from the field in the Western Conference final.

Key stat: Holmgren has at least 22 points/rebounds in seven of eight home games this postseason, giving him a solid floor for this pick.

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Game 5 prop predictions

McDaniels over 12.5 points (-107): McDaniels has been a consistent scorer for the Timberwolves in the postseason, and he’s coming off an excellent Game 4.

  • The 24-year-old is scoring 14.6 points and shooting 51.7% from the field, numbers that are well above his regular-season averages.
  • He has shot over 50% in 10 of 13 games.

McDaniels may be an underwhelming 7-6 against this line, but he’s done his best with the amount of shots he’s taking.

He has averaged 11.0 field-goal attempts per game in the playoffs, though he should see an uptick in volume in a must-win game for Minnesota.

McDaniels’ Game 4 performance certainly helped make the case.

With Anthony Edwards smothered on the defensive end, McDaniels hit 9-of-15 shots for 22 points.

Timberwolves vs. Thunder prop picks made at 9:05 a.m. ET 05/28/2025.

Knicks vs. Pacers prop picks Game 4: Fade Brunson, look for Nembhard to stay consistent

Knicks vs. Pacers picks

Despite a dud from Jalen Brunson, the New York Knicks got into the win column in Game 3 and can level the Eastern Conference finals on Tuesday night.

The pregame narrative: Brunson finished with 23 points on 6-of-18 shooting, and he spent the majority of the final quarter glued to the bench. The Indiana Pacers are 2.5-point home favourites to win tonight and claim a commanding 3-1 series lead.

I’m targeting Brunson and Andrew Nembhard in my Knicks vs. Pacers prop picks for Game 4 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on May 27.

Knicks vs. Pacers prop picks

Best bet: Nembhard over 11.5 points (-108)

Nembhard fits in perfectly with the Pacers, a team built on depth over superstardom.

Though he’s unlikely to put up gaudy volume stats, the Aurora, Ontario, native is an expert in efficiency.

His 50.0/50.0/83.3 shooting splits are superb. And there are enough opportunities on a nightly basis for me to feel good about this point total.

Check out his averages through 13 playoff games:

  • 14.0 points/game
  • 10.5 field-goal attempts/game
  • 33.6 minutes/game

Those averages make this total look well within reach, and the steadiness of Nembhard’s stat lines backs it up.

He has attempted seven-plus shots in every game while playing 30-plus minutes in 11 of 13.

I don’t mind that Nembhard is coming off a 2-for-9 shooting effort. A night like that has been an anomaly, and his high floor overall makes this play worthwhile.

Key stat: Nembhard has gone over 11.5 points in nine of 13 postseason games.

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Game 4 prop prediction

Brunson under 30.5 points (-127): With a little juice, I think this price is worth it to fade Brunson on the road at a big number.

His home/road splits in the playoffs aren’t wildly different, but there are still notable discrepancies.

  • Home (8 games): 31.9 PPG, 47.8 FG%, 36.5 3PT%, 8.8 free throws/game
  • Road (7 games): 27.6 PPG, 41.7 FG%, 33.3 3PT%, 7.6 free throws/game

Brunson has now gone under this total in four straight road games, as well as five of seven overall.

He has also struggled to stay out of foul trouble, committing 13 fouls through three games in this series. That sort of behaviour can bite into his minutes.

The Knicks staged a fourth-quarter comeback largely without Brunson in Game 3, so maybe they don’t need to lean on him quite as hard as many people think.

Knicks vs. Pacers prop picks made at 11:32 a.m. ET 05/27/2025.

Knicks vs. Pacers SGP predictions Game 4: Bet on New York to cover, Haliburton to shine

Knicks vs. Pacers predictions

A series-shifting matchup awaits the New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers on Tuesday night, as the Knicks look to even the series on the road

The pregame narrative: Road underdogs are 3-0 so far in a series that has been overflowing with drama. Indiana is a slight home favourite, as Tyrese Haliburton and co. look to stay in front.

Check out my Pacers vs. Knicks SGP predictions for Game 4 on May 27, featuring Haliburton and Josh Hart.

Pacers vs. Knicks predictions

Parlay: Knicks +5.5 | Hart 8+ rebounds | Haliburton 3+ threes (+295)

Knicks +5.5 (-190): It’s only been three games, but we’ve seen it all from this Knicks vs. Pacers series already.

  • New York led by 14 points with 3:26 left in Game 1 before losing in overtime, 138-135.
  • In Game 2, the Pacers and Knicks were tied entering the fourth quarter (and Indiana wound up winning by five).
  • On Sunday night, the Knicks won Game 3, 106-100, after trailing by as many as 20 points in the first half.

So the Knicks have blown a huge lead, overcome a huge deficit and lost a game that was close throughout. More importantly, they covered this number each time.

Road teams are 3-0 SU and ATS so far in this matchup. Another win at Gainbridge Fieldhouse is a pretty tough ask for New York, but I do expect the visiting squad to at least keep it close.

The Knicks have covered a +5.5 spread in five of six matchups vs. the Pacers this year.

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NBA SGP legs

Hart 8+ rebounds (-162): I faded Hart as a scorer in Game 3, and it worked out. But I have no interest in fading him as a rebounder.

Hart has a ton of heart, for lack of a better phrase.

When there’s a loose ball up for grabs, the veteran wing plays a lot bigger than his 6-foot-4 stature.

Hart averages 2.9 contested rebounds per game, according to NBA.com, which is the second-most among all guards in the playoffs.

And he’s first among playoff guards in rebound chances per game (17.7), which counts the number of rebound opportunities in which the player is the closest to the ball at some point.

Hart has cashed this bet in five of six matchups vs. Indiana this season, averaging 9.8 RPG. He’s also 8-5 vs. this milestone in his past 13 games overall.

Haliburton 3+ threes (-177): Haliburton has done an excellent job creating space for himself beyond the arc, and he’s been very comfortable chucking high-arcing 3s against the Knicks.

According to NBA.com’s shot tracking data, 27 of Haliburton’s 30 attempted 3s in this series have come with at least four feet of separation. Any shot with 4-to-6 feet of separation is considered “open,” and beyond that is “wide open.”

Though he’s only shooting 30.0% from deep through three games, I’m heartened by the shot quality — and the volume.

Haliburton has established a nice track record of 3-point shooting success against the Knicks, and I expect more of the same on Tuesday night.

Since last year’s playoff matchup, Haliburton has averaged 3.4 triples on 9.2 attempts against New York (13 games).

Knicks vs. Pacers predictions made at 2:25 p.m. ET 05/26/2025.

Thunder vs. Timberwolves SGP predictions Game 4: Look for Gilgeous-Alexander to have bounce-back performance

Thunder vs. Timberwolves picks

The Minnesota Timberwolves won decisively in Game 3 and have the chance to even things up on Monday.

The pregame narrative: The Thunder were at the unfamiliar end of a blowout on Saturday and look to secure a two-game lead before returning home. Easier said than done, though, as the Timberwolves have been a strong home team in the playoffs.

Check out my Thunder vs. Timberwolves SGP predictions for Game 4 on May 26, featuring plays on Anthony Edwards and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Thunder vs. Timberwolves predictions

Parlay: Timberwolves +5.5 | Edwards 3+ threes | Gilgeous-Alexander over 30.5 points (+310)

Timberwolves +5.5 (-159): It may not have looked like it in Games 1 and 2, but the Timberwolves are legit contenders for the title.

And their playoff success has been fuelled by a 5-1 home record, including a 42-point battering of the Thunder in Game 3.

That was the largest defeat of the season for OKC, and it shows that Minnesota isn’t willing to roll over just yet.

The T-wolves have an average point differential of +13.5 at home this postseason. They haven’t just been winning, but have been running opponents out of their building.

This wager doesn’t require Minnesota to win, however. The team only has to stay competitive, and it’s very capable of that.

Overall, the Timberwolves are 10-1 in their last 11 games at Target Center.

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NBA SGP legs

Edwards 3+ threes (-225): The star guard had one of his best games of the postseason on Saturday when he scored 30 points on an efficient 12-for-17 shooting (5-for-8 from 3-point range).

That’s actually below average volume for Edwards, who is averaging 20.5 field-goal attempts for the T-wolves.

On top of that, Edwards has taken eight or more 3s in all but two playoff games. That’s a great volume to work with at the very least.

He finished the regular season ranked second in the NBA with 10.3 attempted 3s per game and hasn’t slowed down much, taking 8.9 triples per game in the postseason.

Overall, Edwards is 8-5 against this line in the playoffs and 4-2 at home.

Gilgeous-Alexander over 30.5 points (-139): On the other side, the NBA’s newest MVP leads the offence for the Thunder.

The Canadian finished the regular season as the league’s top scorer (32.7 PPG) and is averaging 28.7 PPG in the playoffs.

He had arguably his worst showing of the postseason in Game 3, putting up a measly 14 points on 4-of-13 shooting.

However, he cleared this line in five straight games before that, so a better performance should be expected.

Including the Western Conference finals, SGA is 5-2 against this line vs. Minnesota while scoring a blistering 32.0 points per game.

The Thunder’s superstar is 9-5 against this line in the playoffs.

Thunder vs. Timberwolves predictions made at 2:45 p.m. ET 05/26/2025.

Thunder vs. Timberwolves prop picks Game 4: Edwards should stay heavily involved, fade Hartenstein

Thunder vs. Timberwolves picks

After steamrolling the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 3, the Minnesota Timberwolves can even the Western Conference finals on Monday night at home.

The pregame narrative: Anthony Edwards showed up in a major way in Game 3, helping Minnesota earn a 42-point victory at Target Center. OKC is still the odds-on frontrunner to win the NBA Finals, though, and the visiting squad is favoured to take Game 4.

Check out my Thunder vs. Timberwolves prop picks on Edwards and Isaiah Hartenstein for Game 4 on May 26.

Thunder vs. Timberwolves prop picks

Best Bet: Edwards over 13.5 rebounds/assists (-118)

Edwards has his fingerprints all over this series, as you would expect from Minnesota’s alpha dog.

Check out some of the per-game stats Edwards leads the T-wolves in during the WCF:

  • Minutes (35.4)
  • Assists (5.0)
  • Rebounds (9.0)
  • Potential assists (9.0)
  • Rebound chances (13.3)

Oh, and he’s also the team’s leading scorer.

The ferocity of OKC’s defence wasn’t on full display in Game 3, but I have enough respect for the Thunder that I don’t want to mess with Edwards’ scoring prop.

But I think he has a great shot at clearing his rebounds/assists total, as he has more often than not this postseason.

Through 13 playoff games, Edwards is 9-4 vs. this line while averaging 13.9 RA.

Since February, Edwards is 5-1 vs. this line against the Thunder, averaging 15.7 RA in that span.

Edwards’ output as a scorer isn’t always predictable. But his effort level as a rebounder is. Combining that with his role as the primary facilitator, this is a solid way to back the T-wolves’ superstar guard.

Key stat: Edwards has cashed this bet in 14 of his past 19 playoff games (dating back to May 2024).

Game 4 prop predictions

Hartenstein under 18.5 points/rebounds/assists (-125): This line would’ve seemed low during the regular season, but things change.

Hartenstein has largely been a non-factor in this series, averaging just 8.0 points, 6.3 rebounds and 0.7 assists (15.0 PRA).

He’s finished under this line in five straight games, which is thanks in part to a reduced minutes workload. Hartenstein is only averaging 21.6 minutes in that span, versus 26.9 minutes in his previous nine playoff games.

In his past five games against the Timberwolves, Hartenstein has gone under 18.5 PRA four times. I just don’t trust him to be a big part of OKC’s plans in this series.

Thunder vs. Timberwolves prop picks made at 3:00 p.m. ET 05/25/2025.

Knicks vs. Pacers prop picks Game 3: Target point guards Brunson, Haliburton in Indiana

Knicks vs. Pacers picks

The Indiana Pacers return home with a 2-0 lead in the Eastern Conference finals.

The pregame narrative: The New York Knicks will be fighting an uphill battle trying to do something that’s only been done five times in NBA history. And that’s to win a seven-game series after losing the first two games at home.

I’m targeting Jalen Brunson and Tyrese Haliburton in my Knicks vs. Pacers prop picks on May 25.

Knicks vs. Pacers prop picks

Best Bet: Brunson over 38.5 points/assists (-125)

Despite the Knicks’ woes, Brunson has been doing his part to will New York’s offence.

Through two games, he’s averaging 39.5 points and 8.5 assists. That comes with a very efficient 53.8% field-goal percentage.

I was expecting another high-scoring showdown after what we saw in Game 1, but the second contest stayed relatively tame, finishing with 223 total points.

That didn’t stop Brunson from filling the stat sheet with 36 points and 11 assists, though.

Tonight’s contest should get back to the standard. The Knicks and Pacers finished with 247.5 average points in their four previous meetings this year.

A lot of that could be attributed to Indiana playing at the fastest pace among Eastern Conference playoff teams.

That should lead to more production opportunities for Brunson, who’s averaging 30.4 points and 7.7 assists in the postseason.

Key stat: Brunson has cleared this line in five straight games vs. Indiana in which he’s played 35 or more minutes.

Game 3 prop prediction

Haliburton over 9.5 assists (-118): Indiana’s point guard cleared this line in the first two games, dishing out 11 assists in both matchups.

Haliburton is averaging 12.5 adjusted assists (which includes free-throw assists and secondary assists) in this series, according to NBA.com, which further highlights his playmaking ability.

His 17.5 potential assists per game (denoting all passes that lead directly to a shot) in the playoffs rank above any remaining player.

If there is more scoring, like I predict, Haliburton should be able to achieve a double-digit assist total once again.

Overall, Haliburton has cashed this wager in seven of 12 postseason games.

Knicks vs. Pacers prop picks made at 3:01 p.m. ET 05/25/2025.

Thunder vs. Timberwolves prop picks Game 4: Edwards should stay heavily involved, fade Hartenstein

Thunder vs. Timberwolves picks

After steamrolling the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 3, the Minnesota Timberwolves can even the Western Conference finals on Monday night at home.

The pregame narrative: Anthony Edwards showed up in a major way in Game 3, helping Minnesota earn a 42-point victory at Target Center. OKC is still the odds-on frontrunner to win the NBA Finals, though, and the visiting squad is favoured to take Game 4.

Check out my Thunder vs. Timberwolves prop picks on Edwards and Isaiah Hartenstein for Game 4 on May 26.

Thunder vs. Timberwolves prop picks

Best Bet: Edwards over 13.5 rebounds/assists (-120)

Edwards has his fingerprints all over this series, as you would expect from Minnesota’s alpha dog.

Check out some of the per-game stats Edwards leads the T-wolves in during the WCF:

  • Minutes (35.4)
  • Assists (5.0)
  • Rebounds (9.0)
  • Potential assists (9.0)
  • Rebound chances (13.3)

Oh, and he’s also the team’s leading scorer.

The ferocity of OKC’s defence wasn’t on full display in Game 3, but I have enough respect for the Thunder that I don’t want to mess with Edwards’ scoring prop.

But I think he has a great shot at clearing his rebounds/assists total, as he has more often than not this postseason.

Through 13 playoff games, Edwards is 9-4 vs. this line while averaging 13.9 RA.

Since February, Edwards is 5-1 vs. this line against the Thunder, averaging 15.7 RA in that span.

Edwards’ output as a scorer isn’t always predictable. But his effort level as a rebounder is. Combining that with his role as the primary facilitator, this is a solid way to back the T-wolves’ superstar guard.

Key stat: Edwards has cashed this bet in 14 of his past 19 playoff games (dating back to May 2024).

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Game 4 prop predictions

Hartenstein under 18.5 points/rebounds/assists (-129): This line would’ve seemed low during the regular season, but things change.

Hartenstein has largely been a non-factor in this series, averaging just 8.0 points, 6.3 rebounds and 0.7 assists (15.0 PRA).

He’s finished under this line in five straight games, which is thanks in part to a reduced minutes workload. Hartenstein is only averaging 21.6 minutes in that span, versus 26.9 minutes in his previous nine playoff games.

In his past five games against the Timberwolves, Hartenstein has gone under 18.5 PRA four times. I just don’t trust him to be a big part of OKC’s plans in this series.

Thunder vs. Timberwolves prop picks made at 2:00 p.m. ET 05/25/2025.