Category: NBA

Knotted at one game apiece, the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers resume their NBA Finals matchup on Wednesday night.

The pregame narrative: OKC is a road favourite in Game 3 after a convincing home victory last time out. The Pacers have deployed a remarkably balanced offence, with zero 20-point scorers through two games.

I’m targeting Jalen Williams, Alex Caruso and Tyrese Haliburton in my Thunder vs. Pacers prop picks on June 11.

Pacers vs. Thunder prop picks

Best bet: Williams under 27.5 points/rebounds (-122)

Williams soared to new heights in his third NBA season, setting career-highs in points (21.6/game) and rebounds (5.3/game) while earning third-team All-NBA honours.

But he wasn’t routinely clearing this points/rebounds line then, and he’s certainly not doing so now.

Williams is the No. 2 scoring option for the Thunder, but it’s been a pretty streaky postseason. He’s gone under 20 points in 10 of his past 14 games.

Though Williams is listed as the Thunder’s starting power forward, he isn’t a typical big man. He’s 6-foot-5 and spends plenty of time roaming the perimeter, too.

OKC has two 7-footers — Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein — who are currently playing in a staggered way that ensures a traditional big is always on the floor.

In my view, that lowers Williams’ ceiling as a rebounder.

Williams is shooting just 37.7% vs. the Pacers in four matchups this year, averaging 18.5 points and 3.8 rebounds (22.3 PR). He’s hit this under in all four games.

I know he’s likely to be heavily involved, but he hasn’t shown enough against the Pacers (or in the playoffs as a whole) to warrant this high of a line.

Key stat: Williams has gone under 27.5 PR in 12 of 18 playoff games this season — and in 19 of 28 for his career.

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Game 3 prop prediction

Caruso over 8.5 points (-121): A relatively quiet night from Williams would help this Caruso bet cash, so I’m hoping for some harmony here with these picks.

Caruso isn’t in the starting lineup, and he’s known more for his defence. But I’ve noticed a steady offensive floor from him in recent games.

Here are his numbers over the past 12 matchups:

• 10.1 PPG
• 24.7 minutes/game
• 5+ shots in 11 of 12
• 3+ attempted 3s in every game

Caruso has cashed this bet in 12 of 18 games this postseason, including both so far in the Finals.

He matched a playoff-high with 20 points in Game 2, and we don’t even need half of that in Game 3 to hit the over.

Haliburton under 8.5 assists (-143): This line would typically seem a bit low for Haliburton, but the Thunder have had the clamps on him so far this series.

The 2023-24 assist champ, who averaged 9.2 APG during the regular season, had just six assists apiece in Games 1 and 2.

In four games against the Thunder overall this season, he has 23 total assists and has gone under this mark all four times.

OKC allowed the fourth-fewest assists per game during the regular season (24.6). They’ve allowed even fewer APG during the playoffs (21.8).

Haliburton has gone under an 8.5-assist line in eight of his past 12 games.

Thunder vs. Pacers prop picks made at 11:47 a.m. ET 06/10/2025.

Game 2 of the NBA Finals is set for tip-off from Paycom Center in Oklahoma City on Sunday night.

The pregame narrative: In Game 1, the Thunder were the latest victims of the Indiana Pacers’ never-say-die tendencies. Indiana wiped away a 15-point lead in the fourth quarter for yet another stunning victory. OKC is a massive favourite to even the series tonight.

Check out my Pacers vs. Thunder SGP predictions for Game 2 on June 8, featuring Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Tyrese Haliburton and Andrew Nembhard.

Pacers vs. Thunder predictions

Parlay: Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points | Nembhard over 4.5 assists | Haliburton under 18.5 points (+300)

Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points (-278): It’s hard to view 30 points as a given, but it’s in that range for Gilgeous-Alexander on a nightly basis.

• The NBA MVP averaged a league-high 32.7 PPG this season.

• He has 30+ points in 12 of his past 15 playoff games.

• He scored 38 points in Game 1 on mediocre shooting (14-of-30).

If SGA takes 30 shots again, this is really going to feel like a lock. And I wouldn’t say that’s out of the question.

Gilgeous-Alexander attempted 55 shots over the final two games of the Western Conference finals. Everyone knows that the OKC offence runs through him, but that doesn’t mean there’s an easy way to stop it.

OKC can ill afford to go down 0-2 in the Finals, obviously. The Hamilton, Ontario native should stay heavily involved to give his team its best chance to win.

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NBA SGP legs

Nembhard over 4.5 assists (-143): Nembhard isn’t the primary passer on the Pacers, but there’s still plenty of room for him to get over this line.

Look at how Game 1 played out. Nembhard made half as many passes as Haliburton (45 vs. 89), but they finished with six assists apiece.

That might seem like a fluke, but it’s important to remember that not all passes are created equal.

According to NBA.com’s tracking data, Nembhard had 12 potential assists, which are marked as passes that lead directly to a shot. Haliburton had 13.

Throughout the playoffs, Nembhard has averaged 8.8 potential assists per game, meaning roughly half would have to convert for him to cash this bet. That’s certainly doable.

The Aurora, Ontario native is 10-7 vs. this prop in the postseason.

Haliburton under 18.5 points (-167): One reason why I like Nembhard’s assists prop is because the Pacers have so many capable scorers in their rotation. That’s also a reason to fade Haliburton.

In Game 1, Indiana had six scorers with 10-plus points. They had seven players averaging double figures during the regular season, so that type of balance isn’t an anomaly.

The Pacers need Haliburton to ball out, certainly, but he doesn’t have to carry the scoring load on his own.

He had 14 points in the series-opening victory. That’s the fifth time this postseason that he went under this point total in an Indiana win.

Haliburton has now gone under this total in all three games vs. OKC this year. He averaged 18.6 PPG during the regular season, so fading this total against the league’s top defence makes sense.

Pacers vs. Thunder predictions made at 11:56 a.m. ET 06/08/2025.

Well, the Indiana Pacers did it again. Thanks to yet another frenzied comeback in a postseason full of them, the underdogs have a 1-0 series lead in the NBA Finals.

The pregame narrative: The Oklahoma City Thunder were severely out-rebounded in Game 1, and they also failed to slow down the Pacers from 3-point range. Still, the Thunder are 11-point favourites on Sunday night to even the series.

I’m targeting Isaiah Hartenstein, Pascal Siakam and Obi Toppin in my Pacers vs. Knicks prop picks on June 8.

Pacers vs. Thunder prop picks

Best bet: Hartenstein over 6.5 rebounds (-124)

My colleague Spencer backed Hartenstein to grab eight-plus rebounds in the series opener, and that prop cashed at +112, despite Hartenstein playing just 17 minutes and coming off the bench for the first time in the postseason.

There’s a pretty notable split in terms of Hartenstein’s usage, and it doesn’t paint a rosy picture:

• First 9 playoff games: 26.9 minutes, 9.2 rebounds

• Past 8 playoff games: 19.8 minutes, 6.5 rebounds

Why, then, am I bullish on Hartenstein’s rebound production in Game 2?

Because OKC went -17 in the rebounding count in Game 1. That can’t happen again, and Hartenstein is the top candidate to do something about it.

Frontcourt size was supposed to be a strength for OKC this series. They employ two 7-footers (Hartenstein, Chet Holmgren) to Indiana’s zero. But it seems the speed of the Pacers coaxed the Thunder to stray from that strategy.

Hartenstein led the Thunder with nine rebounds despite playing just 17 minutes. Three players on the Pacers had nine or more boards.

During the regular season, Hartenstein cashed this bet in 48 of 57 games (84.2%). I know he’s seen reduced minutes since then, but he’s still capable of hitting the over in a reduced role.

OKC cannot afford to get waxed on the glass again in Game 2. I expect Hartenstein to be a central figure in the Thunder’s adjustments.

Key stat: Hartenstein is 11-6 vs. this line in the postseason, and he has five-plus rebounds in every game.

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Game 2 prop prediction

Siakam over 25.5 points/rebounds (-121): This pick has some Hartenstein insurance baked into it. If Hartenstein takes a backseat again, Siakam should have more rebounding opportunities.

Then again, the Eastern Conference Finals MVP is capable of clearing this line on points alone. So I’m not fixated on his rebounding upside.

Coming off a 19-point, 10-rebound performance, Siakam is now 6-3 vs. this line in his past nine games. He has three games of 30-plus points in that span.

For the postseason as a whole, Siakam is averaging 26.9 PR, consistently putting himself in a strong spot to hit this over.

Toppin over 1.5 threes (+150): As I mentioned in my NBA Finals series preview, one key for Indiana in this matchup was to shoot more 3s.

They nailed it in Game 1, attempting 39 shots from beyond the arc. That accounted for 47.6% of their total field-goal attempts, which was Indiana’s highest rate of the postseason.

Toppin was crucial to the perimeter success, posting team-highs in makes (five) and attempts (eight).

He hadn’t attempted more than four 3s in any of the first 16 playoff games during this run, so I can’t expect that type of volume again.

But I do think four attempts should be his floor if Indiana is committed to staying active from deep.

With that in mind, a +150 price on Toppin canning a couple of 3s has some value in my eyes.

Pacers vs. Thunder prop picks made at 10:07 a.m. ET 06/07/2025.

The Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder begin their best-of-seven NBA Finals series on Thursday.

The pregame narrative: The Thunder rolled through the West, leaning on MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and a special defence. Indiana, on the other hand, is built on depth scoring but will need to overcome its status as a heavy underdog in the Finals.

I’m targeting Myles Turner and Isaiah Hartenstein in my Pacers vs. Knicks prop picks on June 5.

Pacers vs. Knicks prop picks

Best bet: Turner under 13.5 points (-113)

Indiana’s starting centre has consistently fallen short of this mark despite shooting a very high 52.5% from the field (40.3% from 3) in the postseason.

That was evident in his final three games vs. the New York Knicks:

• Game 4: 13 points (made 5-of-8 FGs)
• Game 5: 5 points (made 2-of-3 FGs)
• Game 6: 11 points (made 4-of-6 FGs)

He’s not a priority in the Pacers’ offence and has received less playing time as the playoffs progress. He was on the court for a combined 45 minutes between Games 5 and 6 of the Eastern Conference final.

On top of that, the Thunder are a level above the rest on defence. They have the best defensive rating in the playoffs (104.7).

For context, the Boston Celtics rank second in defensive rating (108.1). OKC’s defence is head and shoulders above the competition.

That should make it difficult for anyone on the Pacers to have an efficient night, and I’ll choose to fade Turner based on his lack of volume.

Key stat: Turner went 0-2 against this line vs. the Thunder in the regular season while shooting a combined 6-for-19 from the field (31.6%).

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Game 1 prop prediction

Hartenstein 8+ rebounds (+112): The Western Conference is full of big rebounding teams that make it hard for centres to be effective.

Hartenstein witnessed that in the WCF against the Minnesota Timberwolves when he had to deal with 7-foot defensive stopper Rudy Gobert.

He went 1-4 against this line in that series, but I believe now is the time to jump back in at a discounted price.

• Hartenstein was more effective in the first two series, going 7-4 against this line.

• Out of the playoff teams, the Pacers allowed the second-most rebounds to centres during the regular season (15.26), per Fantasy Pros.

Knicks’ starting centre, Karl-Anthony Towns, feasted down low in the ECF, recording 12.2 rebounds per game.

I expect a similarly dominant effort from Hartenstein on a smaller scale. He averages 16.0 rebound chances in the postseason.

Pacers vs. Thunder prop picks made at 12:47 p.m. ET 06/05/2025.

The Indiana Pacers hit the road as sizeable underdogs in Game 1 of the NBA Finals.

The pregame narrative: The Oklahoma City Thunder earned the right to be huge favourites to win the title. They finished with an all-time regular season record (68-14) and have been the best team in the playoffs. The Pacers have been resilient in this position, though, with one more major upset to pull off.

Check out my Pacers vs. Thunder SGP predictions for Game 1 on June 5, featuring Chet Holmgren and Tyrese Haliburton.

Pacers vs. Thunder predictions

Parlay: Thunder -7.5 | Holmgren over 25.5 points/rebounds | Haliburton under 18.5 points (+330)

Thunder -7.5 (-159): Let’s start by looking at some stats and where OKC ranks in the postseason:

• Second-best net rating (11.8)
• Best defensive rating (104.7)
• Lowest turnover percentage (11.6)

That makes it incredibly hard to beat the Thunder over 48 minutes.

This team has two All-NBA defensive team members and a newly minted MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who led the NBA in scoring while being extremely efficient.

Indiana’s been very good on the road in the playoffs (6-2), but the team’s been down big a few times before coming back to win.

That may fly in the Eastern Conference, but there’s no room for error against the Thunder, who are used to playing with and maintaining big leads.

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NBA SGP legs

Holmgren over 25.5 points/rebounds (-124): The Pacers have a hard time containing skilled bigs, as we saw with Karl-Anthony Towns of the New York Knicks.

Holmgren isn’t KAT, but this isn’t a KAT line, and there are a few reasons to like OKC’s rising big man in this matchup:

• The 23-year-old has upped his production in the playoffs, averaging 16.4 points and 8.6 rebounds.

• He had his best series in the WCF vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves, scoring 18.0 PPG on 56.7% from the field.

• Indiana allowed the second-most points/rebounds per game to power forwards during the regular season (35.40), per Fantasy Pros.

He went 3-2 on this wager against the Timberwolves, and I expect even more success in the Finals.

This game could end up in blowout territory, so I wanted to find a pick I thought could cash in limited minutes, and this fits the bill.

Haliburton under 18.5 points (-167): Haliburton’s averaging 18.8 points in the postseason, but OKC’s defence is a different beast.

• The Thunder’s defensive rating (104.7) is almost four points higher than the next closest team and is almost nine points higher than the Knicks’ (113.2).

• Plus, Haliburton is 4-4 against this line on the road and has 22 total points in his last two away games.

The guard has been relying on heavy 3-point volume (7.1 attempts per game).

He won’t have as much space against OKC’s smothering defence and plethora of defensive wings.

Pacers vs. Thunder predictions made at 10:56 a.m. ET 06/04/2025.