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Best NBA prop picks Nov. 8: Back Nikola Jokic and Victor Wembanyama on Saturday

Two of the game’s most electrifying big men, Nikola Jokic and Victor Wembanyama, headline Saturday’s NBA prop bets.

Tonight’s NBA prop narrative: Jokic and Wembanyama currently sit second and fourth on the MVP odds board after strong starts to the season. I’m backing the former to fill the basket against the Indiana Pacers and the latter to rack up rebounds against the New Orleans Pelicans.

Check out my favourite NBA prop picks for Nov. 8, featuring a pick on Los Angeles Lakers guard Jake LaRavia.

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NBA prop picks Nov. 8

Best bet: Jokic over 26.5 points (-117)

Jokic isn’t like most superstars.

He requires very few maintenance days and rarely sits on back-to-backs.

And, most importantly for this wager, his production doesn’t dip when playing a second game in a row — in fact, it improves. Check out his numbers from last season:

No rest (12 GP): 33.9 PPG, 69.7 TS%, 32.3% usage rate
1 day rest (41 GP): 28.5 PPG, 64.4 TS%, 29.5% usage rate
2 days rest (9 GP): 26.4 PPG, 69.3 TS%, 25.6% usage rate

The Denver Nuggets’ lead man takes a bigger role when his team is tired, and tonight should be no different.

-> Bet on Jokic to dominate the Pacers at NorthStar Bets

Jokic scored 25 points in 28 minutes yesterday on a hyper-efficient 12-of-15 shooting. That brought his November FG rate up to an absurd 69.1%.

Indiana is suffering a next-level NBA Finals hangover, starting the season 1-7 with the fourth-worst net rating (-8.3) in the league.

The Pacers have been ravaged by injuries, to be fair, but I doubt Jokic cares about that.

Key stat: Jokic is averaging 31.0 PPG this month.

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Today’s best NBA prop bets

Wembanyama over 11.5 rebounds (+105): Wembanyama came out of the gates flying, averaging 30.2 points and 14.6 rebounds through five games in October.

November hasn’t been as pretty (16.7 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 0-3 vs. this line), but he should bounce back tonight.

-> Bet on Wembanyama to clear his rebounding total

The French phenom is still playing big minutes and has a size advantage unlike anyone in basketball. Standing at 7-foot-4, he should decimate a Pelicans front court missing Zion Williamson and Yves Missi.

New Orleans ranks 29th in rebounding rate (47.1%) so far.

LaRavia 2+ threes (-104): Austin Reaves and Gabe Vincent are out tonight, meaning LaRavia will step into the starting shooting guard position.

The 24-year-old is shooting 40.6% from deep this year, and is playing a healthy 36.3 minutes per game this month.

LaRavia and the Lakers take on an Atlanta Hawks team with the second-best 3-point defence in basketball. This isn’t an easy matchup, but I’m banking on opportunities.

Luka Doncic has taken 11 threes in consecutive games and should stretch the floor for LaRavia.

NBA prop picks made at 10:48 a.m. ET on 11/08/2025.

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Raptors vs. 76ers prop picks Nov. 8: Fade VJ Edgecombe and back RJ Barrett

The Toronto Raptors and Philadelphia 76ers begin their season series on Saturday night, with the former looking for a fifth straight win.

The latest: Toronto followed up its four-game losing streak with a four-game winning streak, but is still a 5-point road underdog in Philadelphia. The Sixers are getting superb play out of Tyrese Maxey, who is leading the league in scoring while Joel Embiid is on a minutes restriction.

Check out these Raptors vs. 76ers prop picks for the game on Nov. 8, featuring VJ Edgecombe and RJ Barrett.

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Raptors vs. 76ers prop picks

Best bet: Edgecombe under 20.5 points and rebounds (-107)

Edgecombe is living up to the hype as the No. 3 overall pick.

The Baylor Bears product is averaging 17.6 points, 5.6 rebounds and 4.8 assists so far — well above this number. But I think he’s worth fading tonight for a few reasons.

Opportunity: Edgecombe averaged 40.2 minutes per game in October with Jared McCain sidelined. The guard returned on Tuesday and should eat into his playing time. Joel Embiid also logged season-highs in minutes (26) and FGA (21) his last time out.

Form: The rookie averaged 21.2 PPG on 49.4% shooting in October (4-1 vs. this line) and is averaging 11.7 PPG on 34.2% shooting in November (1-2 vs. this line).

Opponent: Toronto allows the second-fewest PPG to opposing shooting guards, per Fantasy Pros.

-> Full Raptors vs. 76ers props at NorthStar Bets

Edgecombe should still get a solid amount of run, but I expect Nick Nurse to pull his minutes back in favour of McCain, who was a rookie of the year candidate last season before getting injured.

Expect a quiet night out of the top pick in a tough matchup.

Key stat: Edgecombe is just 7-for-26 from the floor in his last two games (26.9%).

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-> Wager on Saturday’s loaded eight-game NBA slate

RJ Barrett prop bet

Barrett 20+ points (-120): There are a lot of mouths to feed on Toronto’s offence, but Barrett has been consistent across the board.

12+ FGA in eight of nine games
50.0% or better shooting in seven of nine games
20+ PPG in six of nine games (19 points in one of the outliers)

-> Bet on RJ Barrett here!

The third-year Raptor is going to get his shots up, and right now, they’re falling.

Barrett has done a ton of damage at the rim (37% of shots) and in the short mid-range (28% of shots), areas Philadelphia struggles to defend.

The Sixers have the fifth-worst rim defence (72.5%) in the NBA, per Cleaning the Glass.

Raptors vs. 76ers prop picks made at 9:30 a.m. ET on 11/08/2025.

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Warriors vs. Nuggets SGP predictions Nov. 7: Back Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray in +310 SGP

Friday’s NBA Cup nightcap between the Denver Nuggets and Golden State Warriors could be lopsided with superstar guard Steph Curry out.

The pregame narrative: Curry is sidelined with an illness, and Jimmy Butler (back) is questionable as well. Denver owns a spotless bill of health and is a 10-point home favourite as a result. The Nuggets hosted the Warriors, with Curry, back in October and lost in an overtime thriller.

Check out my Warriors vs. Nuggets SGP, featuring picks on Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray.

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Warriors vs. Nuggets SGP predictions

Parlay: Nuggets -4.5 | Jokic over 12.5 rebounds | Murray 20+ points (+300)

Nuggets -4.5 (-315): I’m backing both of Denver’s stars to produce, so I’m naturally keen on taking the Denver as a teased-down favourite.

Golden State has only gotten blown out once this season (139-119 vs. Portland), but this feels like a good spot for No. 2.

Curry was out of the lineup on Wednesday, and the Warriors lost 121-116 against their intrastate rival Sacramento Kings — a team with a preseason 35.5 win total projection.

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Denver is capable of running up the score, especially at home, and is the only team with a top-five offensive rating (third) and defensive rating (fourth) so far.

The Nuggets have covered this spread in five of their last six games.

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NBA SGP legs

Jokic over 12.5 rebounds (-115): A few days ago, I backed Phoenix Suns centre Mark Williams to go over his 8.5 rebounding total agianst the Warriors. He finished with 16 rebounds in just 28 minutes.

Golden State will remain a team I want to fade on the glass untill proven otherwise.

The undersized Warriors are only giving one player above 6-foot-8 considerable minutes, and that’s 7-foot sophomore Quinten Post, who plays just 14.7 minutes a night.

Butler and Draymond Green are both tenacious rebounders, but the former is questionable, and the latter is playing through rib discomfort.

-> Bet on Nikola Jokic futures markets

Jokic is among the league’s best rebounders and should feast tonight.

He’s 5-2 against this line (clearing it vs. Golden State), while landing on 12 rebounds in one of the outliers.

Murray 20+ points (-150): The Warriors are allowing the seventh-most PPG to opposing point guards, per Fantasy Pros, and Murray had 25 points against them on opening night.

The guard is in a mini-slump right now, shooting 31.3% over his past two games, but he’s still firing with volume.

-> Bet on tonight’s Warriors vs. Nuggets game

Murray has taken at least 14 shots in every game and is averaging 18.1 FGA on the season. I trust the Canadian to shoot his way out of it.

In his last seven games against the Warriors, Murray is 6-1 against this line while averaging 25.1 PPG.

Warriors vs. Nuggets SGP made at 9:30 a.m. ET 11/07/2025.

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Best NBA prop picks Nov. 7: Back Jalen Duren, Andrew Wiggins and Dallas’ Cooper Flagg, P.J. Washington

I’m dialling up four NBA prop picks for Friday’s packed 11-game slate.

Tonight’s NBA prop narrative: There’s plenty to choose from, but I’ve landed on two plus-money plays, dependable Canadian Andrew Wiggins, and Detroit Pistons big man Jalen Duren, who’s my best bet in a juicy matchup vs. the dreadful Brooklyn Nets.

Check out my favourite NBA prop picks for Nov. 7, featuring predictions on Dallas Mavericks teammates Cooper Flagg and P.J. Washington.

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NBA prop picks Nov. 7

Best bet: Duren over 28.5 points/rebounds (-125)

The Nets are at the bottom of the Eastern Conference with a 1-7 record.

Detroit is a 10.5-point road favourite, so this game isn’t expected to be competitive. But Duren should feast while he’s on the court and power the Pistons to a comfortable victory.

Brooklyn is giving up 124.5 points per game, ranking last in the NBA in defensive rating.

Only two teams are getting scored on more in the paint, and only two have a lower rebounding rate, making Brooklyn susceptible to big men who crash the boards and can finish.

The Nets surrender the fifth-most points to centres, per Betting Pros.

-> Full prop markets for tonight’s NBA action

Duren enters averaging a career-best 17.9 points. He does his damage close to the basket, ranking just outside the top 10 in PPG in the paint.

His high-efficiency shots have led to a 61.9% mark from the field, and he’s been excellent from the line (83%).

The 6-foot-10 centre is coming off a monster 22-point, 22-rebound effort, propelling him to seventh in the NBA in RPG.

Key stat: Duren has topped this line in four of his last six games.

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NBA player prop predictions

Wiggins over 1.5 threes (-137): The Charlotte Hornets are getting killed on the outside, allowing 15 triples per game on nearly 40% shooting.

They are among the worst perimeter defenders in the league. A strong 3-point shooting team like the Miami Heat should tee up from long range.

-> Check out Friday’s NBA betting lines

Norman Powell is the best of the bunch, but Wiggins is another threat who’s shooting efficiently.

The Canadian has nailed multiple triples in four of his last five games.

Wiggins has never been a high-volume shooter from deep, but he’s dependable, converting at a 38.1% clip since the 2020-21 season.

Through eight games, he’s connected on 38.9% of his 3-balls.

Miami will be without starting centre and second-leading scorer Bam Adebayo (foot), which should create more usage for Wiggins.

Mavericks predictions vs. Grizzlies

Flagg over 7.5 rebounds (+110): The Memphis Grizzlies are a mess, but the Mavericks are down Anthony Davis, creating potential for a close game and heavy minutes for the starters.

Flagg has been getting plenty of run, logging 34-plus minutes in four straight. The more he’s out there, the more chances he’ll have to contribute on the glass.

-> Bet on No. 1 overall pick Cooper Flagg on Friday night

He has cleared this line three times in his last four games and also corralled 10 rebounds in his NBA debut.

Dallas has the worst rebounding rate in the NBA, but someone has to pick up the slack sans Davis, and Flagg and Washington have been doing just that.

Washington to double-double (+117): The 27-year-old has double-doubled in two straight games, both without Davis.

And he has several other near-misses this season.

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Oct. 29 vs. Pacers: 9 pts, 11 rebs
Oct. 27 vs. Thunder: 15 pts, 9 rebs
Oct. 24 vs. Wizards: 18 pts, 9 rebs

In three games without Davis, Washington has logged 36-38 minutes, averaging 16.7 points and 9.3 rebounds.

The Grizzlies are allowing the third-most points per game in the NBA, leading to scoring upside for Washington, who has dropped 15-plus in six of his eight contests.

Washington is averaging career highs in points and rebounds and getting to the line more than ever before (4.9 attempts/game).

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Raptors vs. Hawks SGP predictions Nov. 7: Back Toronto to win, Jamal Shead to shine as a passer

For the second time in the season’s first three weeks, the Toronto Raptors are in Atlanta to face the Hawks.

The pregame narrative: Toronto has responded with three straight wins after four straight losses to get back to .500. The Raptors opened their season with a dominant win in Atlanta, and now they’ll face that squad again — but this time, without Trae Young.

Check out my Raptors vs. Hawks SGP, featuring picks on Jalen Johnson and Jamal Shead.

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Raptors vs. Hawks SGP predictions

Parlay: Raptors moneyline | Johnson under 1.5 threes | Shead over 3.5 assists (+475)

Raptors moneyline (+104): Toronto dominated in its season opener against Atlanta, winning by 20 points while boasting a +20 rebound advantage.

It’s surprising — and impressive — that Toronto was able to win by such a significant margin despite shooting just 6-for-25 (24.0%) from deep and sending the Hawks to the free throw line 37 times.

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Young was 11-for-13 from the line and matched a team-high with 22 points, and he won’t be in tonight’s rematch. Advantage, Toronto.

The Raptors are modest underdogs, and I expect them to run it back with a win of some kind. They’re rolling off three straight wins, and they’ve dominated a full-strength Hawks team already.

Toronto has a +2.4 net rating so far, while Atlanta’s net rating sits at -0.9.

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NBA SGP legs

Johnson under 1.5 threes (-150): Johnson is scoring more than ever before, and he’s doing so at a career-best efficiency. But the production isn’t coming from beyond the arc.

Through seven games, Johnson is averaging 20.6 PPG on 58.0% shooting.

His free-throw attempts and 2-point attempts are up, while his 3-point attempts (2.1/game) are lower than either of the two previous seasons.

-> Bet on NBA futures here

Johnson has yet to attempt more than three 3s in a matchup this season, and this under is 7-0.

On opening night, Johnson scored 22 points on 13 shots vs. Toronto, but he was 0-for-2 from deep. This prop is playable as a standalone, even with all the extra juice.

Shead over 3.5 assists (-134): Again, there’s some extra juice on this prop, but I think this one is very playable as a standalone.

Shead comes off the bench for the Raptors and typically plays fewer than 20 minutes per game. But when he’s out there, the objective is to tee up his teammates for buckets.

Despite being a bench player, Shead leads the Raptors in potential assists per game (10.9), which denotes the quantity of passes that lead directly to a shot.

-> Bet on tonight’s Raptors vs. Hawks game

He’s averaging 5.4 APG through eight games and is 8-0 vs. this prop.

In Shead’s first go-round against Atlanta, he chipped in 10 points and five assists off the bench in 19 minutes.

Raptors vs. Hawks SGP made at 9:30 a.m. ET 11/07/2025.

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Clippers vs. Suns prop picks Nov. 6: Back Grayson Allen and Kris Dunn on Thursday

Thursday’s lone NBA game takes place in the desert, where the Phoenix Suns host the Los Angeles Clippers.

The latest: These teams met at Intuit Dome on Oct. 24, and L.A. won handily behind huge performances from James Harden (30-7-7) and Kawhi Leonard (27-5-5). But they’re both out tonight, and Phoenix is a slim home favourite as a result.

Find out how Grayson Allen and Kris Dunn factor into these Clippers vs. Suns picks for Wednesday, Nov. 6.

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Clippers vs. Suns picks

Best bet: Allen over 15.5 points (-130)

Allen has carved out a respectable career for himself thanks to efficient shooting and dogged defence.

He’s been a starter on a few teams before, but he has seen a massively increased role on the Suns following the departures of Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal. The guard is averaging career-highs in:

Points (16.4)
Field-goal attempts (13.5)
Three-point attempts (9.0)
Minutes (34.6)

Allen is shooting with volume (he has at least 10 FGAs in every game), but he’s been uncharacteristically inefficient. Excluding his rookie year, he’s shooting a career-worst 40.7% from the field and 38.9% from deep.

-> Check out tonight’s Clippers vs. Suns prop markets

Some positive regression is bound to happen, and I believe this line is a steal.

The Clippers are giving up the fifth-most points per game to opposing shooting guards, per Fantasy Pros, and are missing their best defender in Leonard.

L.A. is also 0-2 on the road with a -40 point differential. This feels like a game where Allen can go nuclear.

Key stat: Allen is 5-3 against this line, landing on exactly 14 points in two of the outliers.

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NBA prop prediction

Dunn over 11.5 points and rebounds (-125): Dunn is projected to be Los Angeles’ starting point guard tonight, which immediately puts him in a good position to produce.

-> Bet on Allen and Dunn in Phoenix!

Beal, now with Los Angeles, is the only member of the Clippers’ “Big Three” active, but he seldom plays more than 20 minutes a night.

Dunn logged 30 minutes in his last outing and finished just below this line with six points and five rebounds. That was against the defensive powerhouse Oklahoma City Thunder.

Phoenix isn’t a good team by any stretch, sitting 22nd in defensive rating and 15th in rebounding rate.

Dunn is averaging 7.1 points and 3.0 rebounds per game and should see an uptick in production as he gets more minutes.

Clippers vs. Suns picks made at 9:15 a.m. ET on 11/05/2025.

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Clippers vs. Suns prop picks Nov. 6: Back Grayson Allen and Kris Dunn on Thursday

Thursday’s lone NBA game takes place in the desert, where the Phoenix Suns host the Los Angeles Clippers.

The latest: These teams met at Intuit Dome on Oct. 24, and L.A. won handily behind huge performances from James Harden (30-7-7) and Kawhi Leonard (27-5-5). But they’re both out tonight, and Phoenix is a slim home favourite as a result.

Find out how Grayson Allen and Kris Dunn factor into these Clippers vs. Suns picks for Wednesday, Nov. 6.

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Clippers vs. Suns picks

Best bet: Allen over 14.5 points (-120)

Allen has carved out a respectable career for himself thanks to efficient shooting and dogged defence.

He’s been a starter on a few teams before, but he has seen a massively increased role on the Suns following the departures of Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal. The guard is averaging career-highs in:

Points (16.4)
Field-goal attempts (13.5)
Three-point attempts (9.0)
Minutes (34.6)

Allen is shooting with volume (he has at least 10 FGAs in every game), but he’s been uncharacteristically inefficient. Excluding his rookie year, he’s shooting a career-worst 40.7% from the field and 38.9% from deep.

-> Check out tonight’s Clippers vs. Suns prop markets

Some positive regression is bound to happen, and I believe this line is a steal.

The Clippers are giving up the fifth-most points per game to opposing shooting guards, per Fantasy Pros, and are missing their best defender in Leonard.

L.A. is also 0-2 on the road with a -40 point differential. This feels like a game where Allen can go nuclear.

Key stat: Allen is 5-3 against this line, landing on exactly 14 points in two of the outliers.

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NBA prop prediction

Dunn over 12.5 points and rebounds (-108): Dunn is projected to be Los Angeles’ starting point guard tonight, which immediately puts him in a good position to produce.

-> Bet on Allen and Dunn in Phoenix!

Beal, now with Los Angeles, is the only member of the Clippers’ “Big Three” active, but he seldom plays more than 20 minutes a night.

Dunn logged 30 minutes in his last outing and finished just below this line with six points and five rebounds. That was against the defensive powerhouse Oklahoma City Thunder.

Phoenix isn’t a good team by any stretch, sitting 22nd in defensive rating and 15th in rebounding rate.

Dunn is averaging 7.1 points and 3.0 rebounds per game and should see an uptick in production as he gets more minutes.

Clippers vs. Suns picks made at 9:15 a.m. ET on 11/05/2025.

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Warriors vs. Kings SGP predictions Nov. 5: Fade offence, look for Draymond Green to contribute

It’s an all-NorCal showdown on Wednesday at Golden 1 Center, where the Sacramento Kings host the Golden State Warriors.

The pregame narrative: Steph Curry (illness) will miss tonight’s game, which helps explain why the Warriors are underdogs against the 2-5 Kings. Sacramento was off last night after wrapping up a four-game road trip.

Check out my Warriors vs. Kings SGP predictions for Nov. 5, featuring Draymond Green and Zach LaVine.

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Warriors vs. Kings predictions

Parlay: Green over 12.5 rebounds/assists | LaVine 3+ threes | Under 237.5 points (+335)

Green over 11.5 rebounds/assists (-115): Green is averaging exactly 12.5 rebounds/assists through eight games, and tonight’s situation feels like one that should lead to an over.

Jimmy Butler, who’s third on Golden State in rebounds and second in assists, exited last night’s game with a back issue. He is questionable to play tonight.

Curry, who’s third on the team in assists, has been ruled out with an illness.

-> Bet on Draymond Green on Wednesday night

Green is already the Warriors assists leader (6.4 APG), and with Curry out at point guard, he should see heightened responsibilities as a passer.

From a rebounding standpoint, the Kings don’t have a lot of fearsome players on the glass after NBA rebounding leader Domantas Sabonis.

As a whole, Sacramento ranks 28th in rebounding rate (47.0%).

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NBA SGP legs

LaVine 3+ threes (-190): LaVine was the best 3-point shooter in the NBA last year, cashing from deep at a 44.6% clip. That was No. 1 among 177 players averaging at least four 3-point attempts per game.

Understandably, he has continued to lean into his beyond-the-arc shooting. So far this season, he’s attempting a career-high 8.6 threes/game.

Though his success rate hasn’t been as high (38.3 3PT%), LaVine’s shot volume means this milestone should be good most nights.

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He’s 4-3 vs. this prop, with multiple 3s in six of seven games.

LaVine has attempted 8+ threes in five of seven games.

LaVine is 8-for-18 from deep at home this season, cashing this 3s milestone in both games.

He’s also 3-1 vs. this milestone in his past four matchups against the Warriors (since January 2024).

Under 237.5 points (-286): Even in Year 17, Curry is still the primary offensive driver for the Warriors. His absence tonight leads me to believe that this matchup is headed for a fairly low point total.

In their past 10 regular season games without Curry, the Warriors have averaged 105.5 points. The average total in those games was 212.9 points.

The Warriors have gone under 237.5 points in four consecutive games (and Curry played in each of those).

Keep in mind that Butler could miss tonight’s game, too. That would leave Golden State with zero players averaging 17.0 PPG or more.

The Kings and Warriors rank 14th and 20th, respectively, in pace. So it’s not like this game should be expected to turn into a track meet.

Both teams rank outside the top 10 in offensive rating as well, and with at least one notable star on the sidelines, they should stay under this number.

Warriors vs. Kings predictions made at 3:20 p.m. ET 11/05/2025.

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Best NBA prop picks Nov. 5: Bet on Amen Thompson and Nikola Jokic on Wednesday

I’m targeting three players on the NBA prop market for Wednesday’s busy basketball slate.

Tonight’s NBA prop narrative: Amen Thompson is on breakout watch and has a plus matchup he should take advantage of. Contributing across the board, I’m taking the over on his points/assists/rebounds line against the Memphis Grizzlies tonight.

Check out my favourite NBA prop picks for Nov. 5, featuring predictions on Nikola Jokic and Austin Reaves.

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Editor’s note: Reaves was ruled out for Wednesday’s game vs. the Spurs after this story was published.

NBA prop picks Nov. 5

Best bet: Thompson over 30.5 PRA (-118)

This is a great spot for the third-year guard who has nightly 20-point potential.

Thompson has yet to discover his 3-point shot through six games and his rebounding is down. But he remains a 50% shooter from the field on increased volume and is getting heavy minutes for a dangerous Houston Rockets team.

The 22-year-old has logged 39-plus minutes in half his contests. Foul trouble and blowout wins prevented him from approaching that number in his other games.

Thompson is averaging 28.3 PRA, propelled by career-best marks in points (17.0) and assists (5.5).

Memphis is 23rd in the NBA in defensive rating and has struggled to defend in the paint, where the athletic Thompson does a lot of his scoring.

-> Check out tonight’s NBA prop markets

The Grizzlies have also been weak on the perimeter, providing Thompson with clear scoring upside for tonight’s game.

He’s gotten to nine rebounds in two of his past three games after averaging 8.2 last season. It’s in the realm of possibilities that he clears this line on points and rebounds alone.

Key stat: Thompson has blown past this mark in three straight.

Today’s best NBA prop bets

Jokic over 47.5 PRA (-118): Once Jokic’s scoring improves, and there’s no reason to believe that it won’t, this line is probably set a couple of points higher most nights.

Even against a strong defensive team like the Miami Heat, I see an opportunity to buy a little low.

-> Bet on Heat vs. Nuggets & Wednesday’s NBA slate

Jokic’s scoring average hasn’t been this light since the 2019-20 season. But he’s coming off a season-best 34-point effort and shooting 60% from the field.

The three-time MVP remains elite on the glass (third in the NBA at 13.2 boards/game) and is dishing out a career-high 11.3 assists per night.

Those averages get us halfway to this line and we know he has 30-plus-point upside.

Denver is second in the NBA in offensive rating and Miami plays at the fastest pace in the game.

While these teams have been playing great defence (both top five in defensive rating), this feels like a shootout waiting to happen in Denver’s high altitude.

And the over/under backs that up. At 241 points, this is by far the highest total of tonight’s 11-game slate.

NBA player prop predictions

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Reaves over 6.5 assists (-134): Reaves’ numbers need context. LeBron James has been sidelined all season, and Reaves has played three of his seven games without Luka Doncic.

He’s not the next Luka in the making, but his early-season averages are star-level:

31.1 PPG
9.3 APG
5.1 RPG
90.3 FT% on 10.3 attempts

Reaves’ scoring will naturally take a backseat with Doncic (41.3 PPG) in the lineup. But that, in theory, can set him up to be more of a distributor, a role he’s handled well with the Lakers.

The fifth-year guard has three double-digit assist games and is 5-2 vs. this line.

Keep in mind: Reaves (groin) is questionable as of early Wednesday afternoon. Check our NBA injury report throughout the day for the latest on his availability.

NBA prop picks made at 1:23 p.m. ET on Nov. 5, 2025.

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Best NBA prop picks Nov. 5: Bet on Amen Thompson and Nikola Jokic on Wednesday

I’m targeting three players on the NBA prop market for Wednesday’s busy basketball slate.

Tonight’s NBA prop narrative: Amen Thompson is on breakout watch and has a plus matchup he should take advantage of. Contributing across the board, I’m taking the over on his points/assists/rebounds line against the Memphis Grizzlies tonight.

Check out my favourite NBA prop picks for Nov. 5, featuring predictions on Nikola Jokic and Austin Reaves.

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Editor’s note: Reaves was ruled out for Wednesday’s game vs. the Spurs after this story was published.

NBA prop picks Nov. 5

Best bet: Thompson over 30.5 PRA (-120)

This is a great spot for the third-year guard who has nightly 20-point potential.

Thompson has yet to discover his 3-point shot through six games and his rebounding is down. But he remains a 50% shooter from the field on increased volume and is getting heavy minutes for a dangerous Houston Rockets team.

The 22-year-old has logged 39-plus minutes in half his contests. Foul trouble and blowout wins prevented him from approaching that number in his other games.

Thompson is averaging 28.3 PRA, propelled by career-best marks in points (17.0) and assists (5.5).

Memphis is 23rd in the NBA in defensive rating and has struggled to defend in the paint, where the athletic Thompson does a lot of his scoring.

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The Grizzlies have also been weak on the perimeter, providing Thompson with clear scoring upside for tonight’s game.

He’s gotten to nine rebounds in two of his past three games after averaging 8.2 last season. It’s in the realm of possibilities that he clears this line on points and rebounds alone.

Key stat: Thompson has blown past this mark in three straight.

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Today’s best NBA prop bets

Jokic over 48.5 PRA (-120): Once Jokic’s scoring improves, and there’s no reason to believe that it won’t, this line is probably set a couple of points higher most nights.

Even against a strong defensive team like the Miami Heat, I see an opportunity to buy a little low.

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Jokic’s scoring average hasn’t been this light since the 2019-20 season. But he’s coming off a season-best 34-point effort and shooting 60% from the field.

The three-time MVP remains elite on the glass (third in the NBA at 13.2 boards/game) and is dishing out a career-high 11.3 assists per night.

Those averages get us halfway to this line and we know he has 30-plus-point upside.

Denver is second in the NBA in offensive rating and Miami plays at the fastest pace in the game.

While these teams have been playing great defence (both top five in defensive rating), this feels like a shootout waiting to happen in Denver’s high altitude.

And the over/under backs that up. At 241 points, this is by far the highest total of tonight’s 11-game slate.

NBA player prop predictions

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Reaves over 6.5 assists (-129): Reaves’ numbers need context. LeBron James has been sidelined all season, and Reaves has played three of his seven games without Luka Doncic.

He’s not the next Luka in the making, but his early-season averages are star-level:

31.1 PPG
9.3 APG
5.1 RPG
90.3 FT% on 10.3 attempts

Reaves’ scoring will naturally take a backseat with Doncic (41.3 PPG) in the lineup. But that, in theory, can set him up to be more of a distributor, a role he’s handled well with the Lakers.

The fifth-year guard has three double-digit assist games and is 5-2 vs. this line.

Keep in mind: Reaves (groin) is questionable as of early Wednesday afternoon. Check our NBA injury report throughout the day for the latest on his availability.

NBA prop picks made at 11:41 a.m. ET on Nov. 5, 2025.

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