Category: NBA

For the fourth and final time this season, the Denver Nuggets face the Sacramento Kings.

The pregame narrative: Denver has dominated this head-to-head matchup in recent meetings, but Sacramento pulled off a stunning road upset when they last met on Nov. 22. Still, the Nuggets are 10-point favourites on Thursday night as they look to build on a 10-game road winning streak.

Check out my Kings vs. Nuggets SGP predictions for Dec. 11, featuring Nikola Jokic and Russell Westbrook.

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Nuggets vs. Kings predictions

Parlay: Westbrook 10+ assists | Jokic 12+ rebounds | Nuggets -7.5 (+475)

Westbrook 10+ assists (-108): With De’Aaron Fox gone and Domantas Sabonis (knee) spending a lot of time on the sidelines, the Kings have had to look elsewhere for their primary passer.

Enter Westbrook, who is averaging a team-high 7.3 assists this year. That’s obviously well below the total I’m asking of him tonight, but things have been trending up.

• In his past 12 games without Sabonis, Westbrook is averaging 8.7 APG (5-7 vs. this line).

• He’s 3-2 vs. this milestone in his past five games, posting 14 assists in two of those matchups. And in that five-game span, Westbrook is averaging 16.2 potential assists per game (sixth in the NBA).

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Westbrook is a two-time scoring champ, but his 11.9 field goal attempts per game are nowhere near the 20+ shots he averaged in his heyday.

He’s also a three-time assists leader, as recently as the 2020-21 season, and can clearly still turn it on when needed.

Westbrook finished with 11 assists apiece in his past two games against the Nuggets.

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Jokic 12+ rebounds (-152): As much as Sabonis’ absence creates more assist opportunities for Westbrook, I’d say it’s even more notable for what Jokic can do on the glass.

The three-time MVP won’t have to deal with the three-time reigning rebounds champ, which should make things a bit easier.

• At 12.3 rebounds per game, Jokic is actually in line to be the NBA’s rebounding leader this season. And he’s 13-10 vs. this prop so far.

• Jokic is on pace to average more than 12.0 boards for a third consecutive year.

-> Back Nikola Jokic and Russell Westbrook on Thursday

Even if Sabonis was playing, I’d still like Jokic at this number.

The superstar centre is 7-1 vs. this milestone in his past eight meetings vs. the Kings, averaging 14.0 RPG in that span.

Nuggets -7.5 (-175): The Nuggets lost outright as 11-point home favourites when they last played the Kings. But Denver was playing on a back-to-back, and I’m chalking that up as a fluke.

Prior to that loss, the Nuggets had won seven in a row in this head-to-head matchup — including a 14-point win in Sacramento on Nov. 11.

Denver, which has a one-day rest advantage tonight, is 3-0 ATS in Sacramento since the start of last season. Looking just at this year, the Nuggets are 11-2 straight up and 8-5 ATS on the road.

Without their top two scorers (Sabonis, Zach LaVine), the Kings should struggle against a very strong Denver squad.

Nuggets vs. Kings SGP made at 11:39 a.m. ET Dec. 11, 2025.

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From Thursday’s four-pack of NBA matchups, I’m targeting a pair of plays in the Portland Trail Blazers vs. New Orleans Pelicans game.

Today’s NBA props narrative: Derik Queen continues to shine for the Pelicans in his rookie season and draws a matchup that is worth targeting. On the other side, Toumani Camara has some intrigue as a passer with a plus-money price.

Check out my top NBA prop picks, including a prediction on Boston Celtics centre Neemias Queta.

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NBA prop picks: Dec. 11

Best bet: Queen over 15.5 points (-104)

New Orleans (3-22) probably shouldn’t have handed out an unprotected first-rounder to move up for Queen. Then again, Queen looks pretty awesome so far.

The 6-foot-9, 250-pound centre has worked his way into the Pelicans’ starting lineup and is finding success as a traditional big.

• According to Cleaning The Glass, Queen attempts 93% of his shots from inside the arc. Of that, 42% of shot attempts come from the midrange (86th percentile among bigs).

• Portland allows a 47.5% field goal rate from the midrange. That’s the fifth-highest FG% from that distance among all teams.

-> See full props for Derik Queen!

Queen has already diced up the Blazers once before, back on Nov. 12. He was still coming off the bench then, but he scored 26 points (12-of-18 shooting) in 37 minutes.

He joined the starting lineup a few games later and is averaging 15.0 PPG since then. Last time out, he put up a season-high 33 points on 11-of-15 shooting.

Portland won’t have 7-footer Donovan Clingan under the net tonight to get in Queen’s way. I expect a clear runway for the rookie to fill the net.

Key stat: Portland is allowing the sixth-most points to opposing centres (24.58/game), per Fantasy Pros.

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Best NBA picks

Camara over 2.5 assists (+102): Jrue Holiday is the Blazers’ main facilitator when he’s in the lineup, but he’ll miss his 13th-straight game tonight. In his absence, Deni Avdija has been the team’s assist leader.

But there’s room for others to contribute, too, and Camara is one of those guys.

• Since Holiday’s first absence on Nov. 16, Camara is averaging 2.6 APG in 12 games. He’s generating 5.4 potential assists per game, which denotes passes that lead directly to shots.

• Camara is 7-5 vs. this prop without Holiday.

-> Full betting markets for tonight’s 4 NBA games!

The Pelicans allow the third-most assists per game (29.0), so there should be enough to go around for Avdija, Camara and others.

When the Blazers faced the Pelicans last month — a game Holiday played in — Camara had five assists in 38 minutes.

NBA player prop predictions

Queta over 8.5 rebounds (-125): I only first heard of Queta a few weeks ago, but he’s a guy I’m sure Celtics fans know very well.

The fifth-year centre is getting starter’s minutes for the first time, and he’s making the most of it. Through 22 games, he’s averaging 10.1 points and 8.2 rebounds in just over 24 minutes.

-> Bet on Neemias Queta vs. the Bucks!

Queta falls below this line more often than not. But I think there’s upside for the 7-footer in a matchup against the Giannis Antetokounmpo-less Milwaukee Bucks.

• Milwaukee allows the 11th-most rebounds per game to opposing centres (14.4).

• Overall, the Bucks are allowing the ninth-most rebounds per game (45.0).

Queta grabbed 11 boards against the Raptors last time out, and he posted an 18-rebound performance in the past two weeks.

He’ll be the tallest player on the court tonight, and his ceiling is high.

NBA prop picks made at 10 a.m. ET on Dec. 11, 2025.

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In the final NBA Cup matchup of the quarterfinals, the Los Angeles Lakers host the San Antonio Spurs on Wednesday night.

The pregame narrative: Victor Wembanyama will miss his 12th consecutive game for the Spurs, whose defence has unsurprisingly taken a big hit in his absence. With him on the court in a matchup on Nov. 5, the Lakers beat the Spurs at home, 118-116.

Check out my +325 Spurs vs. Lakers SGP predictions for Dec. 10, featuring prop bets on De’Aaron Fox and Austin Reaves.

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Spurs vs. Lakers SGP

Parlay: Reaves over 23.5 points | Fox over 23.5 points | Over 232.5 (+325)

Reaves over 23.5 points (-112): When Luka Doncic is out, Reaves has the chance to go nuclear. But even when both players are manning the backcourt, this is a total Reaves tends to crest.

• Across all games this season, Reaves is averaging 28.4 points and is 15-5 vs. this points prop.

• With Doncic on the floor, Reaves is averaging 24.5 PPG and is 10-5 vs. this prop.

Doncic runs the show on offence, but Reaves is still putting up 15-plus shots most nights when they’re out there together.

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Also, Reaves is shooting 87.4% from the free-throw line, where he’s averaging a career-high 9.6 attempts per game.

There’s clearly a concerted effort to get to the line, given that he averaged just 3.6 free-throw attempts in his first four seasons.

Add in the fact that Reaves is attempting a career-high 7.7 threes per game, and we’re looking at a player who’s consistently putting up high-quality shots.

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NBA SGP legs

Fox over 23.5 points (+100): When Wembanyama is out, Fox has a chance to put up a big point total. He’s proven it many times over in recent weeks, and I like this price to bet on him doing it again.

• Fox has scored 25+ points in nine of 11 games without Wemby this season.

• In that span, Fox has posted 48.2/39.4/83.5 shooting splits. He’s averaging a healthy volume of shots from 3-point land (6.5 attempts/game) and the free-throw line (7.2).

-> Wager on Reaves & Fox to get buckets!

Fox is set to play the Lakers for the first time as a Spur, but he did face them four times last winter while with the Sacramento Kings. In those games, Fox went 4-0 vs. this point total and posted 28.5 PPG.

Over 232.5 points (-200): I’m picking two players to clear their points props, so backing the over for the game makes sense, right?

This trimmed-down total looks good to me, given how often these teams tend to clear it.

Since the start of the 2023-24 season, the Spurs and Lakers have cashed this over in six of eight head-to-head matchups.

Without Wemby, the two-time reigning blocks champ and heavy Defensive Player of the Year favourite before his injury, it makes sense that the Spurs have had some defensive lapses.

They were sixth in defensive rating before his injury, and they’re 21st in the games since then. The average point total in San Antonio’s past six games is 249.5 points.

-> Check out full NBA Cup betting markets for tonight

Then you have the Lakers, who’ve been the most overs-friendly team in the NBA (16-7-0, 69.6%), per Team Rankings.

Neither team tends to play at a lightning-quick pace, but expect tons of scoring in this one.

Spurs vs. Lakers predictions made at 10:55 a.m. ET on Dec. 10, 2025.

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