Category: NBA

A pair of young point guards are highlighted in Thursday night’s NBA prop picks.

Today’s NBA props narrative: Stephon Castle has built off an award-winning rookie campaign to be the primary facilitator for the San Antonio Spurs, and he should be active in that role tonight. Elsewhere, look for Anthony Black to take advantage of an outsized role caused by injuries.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Dec 18, featuring Jalen Duren.

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NBA prop picks Dec. 17

Best bet: Black over 4.5 assists (+110)

With Jalen Suggs (hip) ruled out for tonight, the Orlando Magic will hand starting point guard duties over to Black tonight in Denver.

At just 3.3 assists/game on the season, this line would normally look too aggressive for Black. But with starter’s minutes — and the plus-money price — I see a prop worth buying in on.

• Black has 4+ assists in nine of his past 11 games, so he’s been knocking on this door rather consistently in recent weeks.

• In that 11-game span, he posted 16 assists across three starts (2-1 vs. this prop).

-> See full props for Magic vs. Nuggets!

Looking just at his past five games, Black has actually been the Magic’s top facilitator — even more than Suggs.

In those games, Black leads the team with 9.2 potential assists/game. Potential assists are any passes that lead directly to a shot.

I’m not sure whether or not this will make a difference, but Black is also in a shooting slump.

He’s 20-for-65 (30.8%) over his past five games. Maybe that poor shooting will further encourage him to dish the rock.

Key stat: Black has at least four assists in five straight games, averaging 5.2 APG in that span.

Best NBA picks

Castle over 6.5 assists (-118): It may not count in his official season stats, but Castle just had 12 assists against the Knicks in the NBA Cup final. That’s the kind of ceiling we’re working with for the second-year player.

After missing nine games, Castle has been back for four and appears to be at full strength. He’s a good bet to put up a big assist total against the Wizards.

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• Washington allows the fourth-most assists to opposing point guards (9.28/game), per Fantasy Pros. The Wizards also allow the most assists per game overall.

• Including the NBA Cup final, Castle is averaging 7.2 APG on the season and has 6+ assists in 11 of 17 games.

Look for the reigning NBA Rookie of the Year to stay active as a passer in a Grade-A matchup.

NBA player prop predictions

Duren over 28.5 points and rebounds (-125): It’ll be worth monitoring the Dallas Mavericks’ injury report throughout the day to see if Anthony Davis (calf) suits up tonight.

I’m on this prop either way, but it’ll feel safer if the three-time blocks champion sits out for a second consecutive game.

AD was on the shelf when the Mavericks faced the Detroit Pistons early last month, and Duren feasted that night: 33 points and 10 rebounds in 29 minutes.

-> Bet on Pistons vs. Mavericks in Dallas!

Duren is 11-12 vs. this prop this season, but the matchup tonight looks like a good one either way.

Dallas allows the third-most points and fifth-most rebounds to opposing centres, per Fantasy Pros.

NBA prop picks made at 10:15 a.m. ET on Dec. 18, 2025.

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I’ve got a trio of NBA prop picks from Wednesday night’s doubleheader, featuring two predictions from the Memphis Grizzlies vs. Minnesota Timberwolves game.

Today’s NBA props narrative: The plus-money price on Naz Reid’s 3s prop is worth a look as the big man continues to score in bunches. On the flip side of tonight’s Memphis/Minnesota matchup, Santi Aldama will likely struggle to score against a potent defence.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Dec 17, featuring Jarrett Allen.

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NBA prop picks Dec. 17

Best bet: Reid over 2.5 threes (+105)

Reid is on fire from 3-point range right now, and he’s facing a team that should help him keep that rolling.

• The Grizzlies allow the fifth-most made 3s (14.5/game) and the sixth-most attempted 3s (39.5/game) in the NBA.

• Reid is 5-1 vs. this prop in December.

On the season, Reid is shooting 39.1% from deep on a career-high 6.2 attempts per game.

That’s not quite as much volume as I’d typically want to see for this prop, but Reid’s volume has been trending up.

-> See full props for Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves!

• First 12 games: 5.2 attempts, 32.3 3PT%, 3-9 vs. this prop

• Last 14 games: 7.1 attempts, 43.4 3PT%, 9-6 vs. this prop

In a favourable matchup, these plus-money odds definitely have my attention.

Key stat: Reid is 4-1 vs. this 3s prop in his past five matchups against the Grizzlies, shooting 19-for-33 (57.6%) from deep in those games.

Best NBA picks

Aldama under 15.5 points (-118): This line seems a bit lofty for Aldama, who’s averaging 13.1 points this season.

That’s a career-high mark for the fifth-year power forward, and it doesn’t rise to the number that’s being asked of him tonight.

-> Full betting markets for Wednesday’s NBA doubleheader!

Against a team with a top-10 defensive rating, I wouldn’t expect Aldama to have an above-average performance. Especially given how he usually fares in this matchup.

The Timberwolves have held Aldama to 8.4 PPG on 37.0% shooting in their past five matchups against him (since January 2024). This under cashed all five times.

This season, Aldama has gone under this point total in 18 of 26 games.

NBA player prop predictions

Allen under 8.5 rebounds (+100): On paper, the Chicago Bulls are a team Allen should dominate on the boards.

After all, they play fast and allow the fourth-most rebounds per game to opposing centres, per Fantasy Pros.

But Allen’s minutes workload and rebounding output are at their lowest since his rookie season nine years ago. And I can’t trust him to hit the nine-rebound mark.

-> Bet on Cavaliers vs. Bulls in Chicago!

• Allen is averaging 7.3 rebounds and 25.9 minutes, which are his lowest marks since 2017-18.

• This under is 12-4 in Allen’s 16 games this season.

• He only had three rebounds in his lone matchup vs. the Bulls (Nov. 8).

Allen is one game removed from a six-game absence due to a finger injury, so it’s also possible that his minutes will be capped against the run-and-gun Bulls.

NBA prop picks made at 3 p.m. ET on Dec. 17, 2025.

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The Toronto Raptors face the Miami Heat for the first time this season in hopes of turning their fortunes around.

The latest: Toronto has dropped six of its past seven games to slide into the mediocre middle of the Eastern Conference’s playoff picture. But Miami has dropped five of six, so one team is destined to snap out of a slump on Monday night.

Check out my Raptors vs. Heat prop bets for the Dec. 15 game at Kaseya Center, featuring predictions on Brandon Ingram and Immanuel Quickley.

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Raptors vs. Heat prop bets

Best bet: Ingram over 23.5 points (-118)

After years of being a methodical, muck-it-up NBA team, the Heat are playing at by far the quickest pace in the NBA. As long as they keep that up, I expect Ingram to have the necessary opportunities to cash this bet.

• For context, Miami ranked 27th in possessions per 48 minutes last year, averaging 97.08. This season, the Heat are No. 1 at 105.30 possessions.

• As you’d expect, more possessions have led to more scoring. Miami is allowing 118.2 points per game this year (22nd), compared to 110.0 PPG last year (seventh).

In his first healthy season for the Raptors, Ingram has embraced the role of their go-to shooter. He’s averaging team highs in points (21.5), field goal attempts (17.0) and free throw attempts (4.9).

That scoring average falls a tick below what is being asked of him tonight, but I’m hoping a high-possession game takes care of that.

-> Full Raptors vs. Heat prop markets at NorthStar Bets

Especially with RJ Barrett (knee) still sidelined. Barrett is one of three Raptors averaging north of 19.0 points this season, so his absence really matters.

In nine games without Barrett, Ingram is averaging 23.1 PPG. And he hit the 30-point threshold in back-to-back games entering tonight.

Key stat: Miami allows the fifth-most PPG to opposing small forwards (24.66), per Fantasy Pros.

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Raptors picks and predictions

Quickley over 6.5 assists (+105): Some Quickley-to-Ingram buckets would be ideal, contributing to both of my predictions. At plus money, IQ is worth a look in this matchup.

At 6.2 assists per game, Quickley is the leader of a team that treats playmaking as a by-committee task.

Barrett (3.8 APG) is a contributing member of that group when healthy, and Quickley has upped his game a bit in Barrett’s absence.

• Without Barrett (8 games): 6.6 APG, 12.0 potential assists/game, 4-4 vs. this prop

• With Barrett (17 games): 6.0 APG, 9.9 potential assists/game, 7-10 vs. this prop

-> Bet on Quickley & Ingram tonight!

Note that potential assists are any passes that lead directly to shots. So Quickley is averaging about two additional assist opportunities sans Barrett.

Miami allows an NBA-high 9.6 APG to opposing point guards, which is another reason to buy in on Monday.

Raptors vs. Heat prop bets made at 10:25 a.m. ET on Dec. 15, 2025.

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Luka Doncic headlines Sunday’s NBA prop bets as he continues to be one of the league’s highest-volume shooters.

Today’s NBA props narrative: Doncic chucks 3-pointers with the best of them, and I’m backing the over on his 3s prop for tonight. Elsewhere, look for Trey Murphy and Jalen Johnson to fill the stat sheet.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Dec 14.

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NBA prop picks: Dec. 14

Best bet: Doncic over 3.5 threes (-163)

The over on Doncic’s point total (35.5) is a bit too rich for me tonight, but I did want to find a way to back him. With a little extra juice on his 3s prop, this seems like a good place to land.

Doncic fires almost as many 3s as anyone, and high volume is a must for a line like this.

His 10.6 attempted 3s per game ranks third in the NBA.

We should see even more triples than usual from Doncic tonight with Austin Reaves (calf) ruled out. Reaves (7.6 3PA) is the only other Laker averaging at least half as many 3-point attempts as Doncic.

-> See full props for Luka Doncic and the Lakers!

In two games without Reaves this year, Doncic is 8-for-21 (38.1%) from deep and cashed this prop both times.

Overall, Doncic is 9-9 vs. this prop in the 2025-26 season.

Shooting at a 33.7% clip from beyond the arc, Doncic isn’t the most efficient shooter by any means. But when you shoot as much as he does, there’s always a chance to clear a line like this.

Since the start of the 2023-24 season (138 games), the five-time All-NBA guard is averaging 3.8 threes on 10.3 attempts.

Key stat: In Doncic’s past five matchups vs. the Suns, he is 4-1 vs. this prop while shooting 41.8% on 11.0 attempts.

Best NBA picks

Johnson over 8.5 assists (-130): Johnson is a frontcourt player who has been doing his best impression of a point guard for quite some time now.

From Nov. 13 onward, Johnson leads the NBA in potential assists per game (18.8), which denotes all passes that lead directly to a shot.

In that span, Johnson is averaging 10.0 APG and is 8-5 vs. this line. He has 12 or more assists in three straight.

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Johnson will face the Philadelphia 76ers tonight, and though he only had seven assists against them last time out (Nov. 30), it’s clear there’s room for a lot more.

The Sixers allow the second-most assists to small forwards, per Fantasy Pros, as well as the ninth-most assists overall.

NBA player prop predictions

Murphy over 19.5 points (-120): The Chicago Bulls and New Orleans Pelicans both rank in the bottom three in scoring defence. And the teams combined for 273 points when they last met on Nov. 24.

So, yes, I want a piece of this one in the prop market.

-> Bet on Trey Murphy vs. the Bulls!

Murphy, who’s averaging 21.2 PPG this season, seems like a perfect candidate. He doesn’t even have to reach his scoring average to get this done.

• He’s 15-9 vs. this prop this year, landing on exactly 19 points in two other instances.

• When he faced the Bulls last month, Murphy shot 4-for-10 from deep and finished with 20 points.

So far in December, Murphy has 20+ points in all five games.

NBA prop picks made at 11:15 a.m. ET on Dec. 14, 2025.

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