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NFL Week 18 TD picks: Bet on trio of long shots in regular season finale

I’m attacking one of the most unpredictable weeks of the NFL season with three long-shot touchdown picks.

The pregame narrative: Connor Heyward has sneaky value to score a touchdown as an understated member of the Pittsburgh Steelers’ red-zone offence. Sean Tucker is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ preferred goal-line back and has nice odds to find pay dirt.

Check out my top NFL Week 18 TD picks, featuring Brock Purdy.

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NFL Week 18 TD picks

Best bet: Heyward to score a TD (+750)

We’re going out with a bang with this touchdown pick.

This is the final game of the NFL season, and it could potentially be the last game of Aaron Rodgers’ career. I expect the Steelers to do everything they can to win this game, and that should involve Heyward getting the ball.

When Pittsburgh is in short-yardage situations, it will utilize the tush push. Unlike the Philadelphia Eagles, who put the ball in Jalen Hurts’ hands, the Steelers don’t turn to their quarterback.

They look to Heyward.

-> Go to full Ravens vs. Steelers prop markets

In fact, Heyward scored a tush push touchdown just a few weeks ago in Week 15.

The Steelers are giving him the ball more in recent outings, too. Heyward only had six carries through the first 13 weeks of the season.

He’s matched that total in the last three weeks.

Pittsburgh is short on offensive talent, too. The team is without DK Metcalf and Darnell Washington for this contest.

I expect Heyward’s involvement to rise and for him to have a chance at a short touchdown.

Key stat: Heyward is tied for the team lead in carries inside the five over the last four weeks (two).

-> Don’t miss out — Bet on NFL Week 18!

NFL Week 18 touchdown bets

Tucker to score a TD (+200): Tampa Bay’s top red zone running back is a nice value to score a touchdown.

-> Bet on Saturday’s NFL prop markets

Tucker has the third-best odds to score a TD on the Bucs, coming in behind fellow running back Bucky Irving.

But I don’t think that should be the case:

Tucker leads Tampa Bay in carries inside the 20 (21), inside the 10 (14), and inside the five (11) this season.

Irving has not recorded a carry inside the five since returning from injury in Week 13. Tucker has seven carries inside the five during the same stretch.

Tucker has a touchdown in three of his last four games, including in his team’s Week 16 loss to the Carolina Panthers.

Purdy to score a TD (+500): Lastly, I’m betting on Purdy shining on a big stage.

Purdy showed in Week 17 that he’s going to take off when he needs to. He turned six carries into 28 yards and two scores in his team’s win over the Chicago Bears.

-> Bet on NFL Sunday prop markets

Purdy is now up to three rushing touchdowns in his last four games.

The Seattle Seahawks rank fifth in pressure percentage (26.1%) and should be able to flush Purdy out of the pocket. When that happens near the end zone, expect Purdy to look to score himself.

NFL TD picks made at 12:51 p.m. ET on Jan. 3, 2026.

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Hawks vs. Raptors prop bet Jan. 3: Fade Nickeil Alexander-Walker

The Atlanta Hawks and Toronto Raptors collide on Saturday night in an Eastern Conference tilt.

The pregame narrative: Atlanta just snapped a seven-game losing streak, and now faces a Toronto squad that’s won back-to-back games. The Raptors haven’t been able to string together a three-plus game winning streak since late November, making tonight a prime opportunity to heat back up.

Check out my Hawks vs. Raptors prop bets for Jan. 3, featuring a prediction for Nickeil Alexander-Walker.

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Hawks vs. Raptors prop bet

Best Bet: Alexander-Walker under 20.5 points (-106)

I’m backing a Canadian and fading another in my prop picks.

Alexander-Walker is averaging 20.4 points per game, putting this number within reach, but there are several reasons to fade him on Saturday.

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Firstly, his scoring is sporadic. Alexander-Walker has topped this total in four of his last seven games, but he’s had 11 points or fewer in two of those misses.

Secondly, this is a very tough matchup for opposing shooting guards like Alexander-Walker. The Raptors are very stingy against the position, ceding the fourth-fewest points to opposing SGs (20.61).

I’m betting on Alexander-Walker having an underwhelming effort in this spot.

Hawks vs. Raptors prop bets made at 10:39 a.m. ET on Jan. 3, 2026.

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Best NBA prop picks Jan. 3: Back Clippers’ Derrick White, Trail Blazers’ Donovan Clingan

Derrick White and Donovan Clingan headline Saturday’s top NBA prop bets.

Tonight’s NBA props narrative: White is one of the league’s premier 3-point shooters and has a great matchup when the Boston Celtics visit the Los Angeles Clippers. Elsewhere, Clingan should feast on no rest against the Victor Wembanyama-less San Antonio Spurs.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Jan. 3, featuring a pick on Chicago Bulls forward Matas Buzelis.

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NBA prop picks Jan. 3

Best bet: White 4+ threes (+115)

White had an uncharacteristically poor start to his season as a 3-point shooter, but the guard has put that in the rear-view.

Check out what he has done from deep since Dec. 1:

4.0 makes/game
10.6 attempts/game
37.7 3PT%

That’s more in line with what we’re used to seeing.

The Celtics are a notoriously 3-point-heavy offence, ranking third in attempts this year after leading the league in the 2024-25 season. White averaged a career-high 3.5 threes on 38.4% shooting last year.

-> Bet on prop markets for Celtics vs. Clippers (ft. Derrick White)!

The Clippers own one of the worst perimeter defences in the NBA, allowing opponents to shoot 37.2% from deep (26th out of 30 teams).

White has gone under this mark in five straight games, but is still shooting with volume, and landed on three 3s twice.

He should get right in this matchup.

Key stat: White has cleared this mark in three straight games vs. L.A. while shooting 44.8% from deep.

Best NBA picks

Clingan over 10.5 rebounds (–143): Clingan is almost always the tallest man on the court, and that will remain true tonight with Wembanyama sidelined.

The 7-foot-2 centre, 280-pound centre still has to contend with Luke Kornet and Kelly Olynyk, but neither is as imposing as Wembanyama on the glass.

-> Full betting markets for Saturday’s NBA slate

Clingan is averaging a double-double this year (10.8 points, 10.5 rebounds), and I expect him to over-index in both categories tonight.

The Spurs are giving up the ninth-most points and 11th-most rebounds to opposing centres in the last 15 days. That is largely with Wembanyama playing, albeit on a minutes restriction.

Clingan has also done his best work on no rest, averaging 13.0 points and 14.0 rebounds in six games this year.

NBA player prop predictions

Buzelis over 16.5 points (-118): Chicago is missing its two top scorers, Josh Giddey and Colby White, tonight, putting Buzelis in a solid position to take the reins against the Charlotte Hornets.

The Lithuanian power forward is enjoying a solid sophomore season, starting all 33 games played while averaging 14.1 points — up considerably from his 8.6 PPG mark last year.

-> Don’t miss out — bet now on tonight’s NBA prop markets!

Buzelis has cleared this mark in consecutive games while averaging 15.5 field goal attempts. That type of volume should lead to a big night against Charlotte.

The Hornets are allowing the second-most PPG to opposing power forwards.

Buzelis is technically slated to start at small forward with Chicago’s injuries, but I’m not worried about that. Standing at 6-foot-8, he’s the modern NBA’s stereotypical positionally fluid wing.

NBA prop picks made at 8:54 a.m. ET on Jan. 3, 2026.

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Hawks vs. Raptors prop bets Jan. 3: Bet on RJ Barrett to clear assists prop

The Atlanta Hawks and Toronto Raptors collide on Saturday night in an Eastern Conference tilt.

The pregame narrative: Atlanta just snapped a seven-game losing streak, and now faces a Toronto squad that’s won back-to-back games. The Raptors haven’t been able to string together a three-plus game winning streak since late November, making tonight a prime opportunity to heat back up.

Check out my Hawks vs. Raptors prop bets for Jan. 3, featuring predictions for RJ Barrett and Nickeil Alexander-Walker.

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Hawks vs. Raptors prop bets

Best Bet: Barrett over 3.5 assists (+128)

Barrett isn’t an elite assists compiler, but there’s reason to want in at this number.

The Toronto small forward is averaging 3.7 dishes per game, putting this plus-money bet right in his range.

-> Bet on RJ Barrett tonight!

Additionally, this is a number that Barrett beats on a fairly routine basis. Although Barrett has missed some time with a knee sprain, he has topped this total in 10 of his last 13 outings and in one of two since returning.

The Hawks aren’t a great defensive team, either, which should give Barrett plenty of assist opportunities.

Atlanta is allowing the seventh-most points per game in the NBA (119.5).

Another factor working in Barrett’s favour is how he’s performed against the Hawks this season. Barrett has nine assists across two matchups with Atlanta, clearing this total on both occasions.

Bet on another strong effort from Barrett as a facilitator on Saturday.

Key stat: The Hawks allow the 10th-most assists per game to opposing small forwards (4.47).

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Raptors picks and predictions

Alexander-Walker under 17.5 points (-127): I’m backing a Canadian and fading another in my prop picks.

Alexander-Walker is averaging 20.4 points per game, putting this number well within reach, but there are several reasons to fade him on Saturday.

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Firstly, his scoring is sporadic. Alexander-Walker has topped this total in four of his last seven games, but he’s had 11 points or fewer in two of those misses.

Secondly, this is a very tough matchup for opposing shooting guards like Alexander-Walker. The Raptors are very stingy against the position, ceding the fourth-fewest points to opposing SGs (20.61).

I’m betting on Alexander-Walker having an underwhelming effort in this spot.

Hawks vs. Raptors prop bets made at 10:39 a.m. ET on Jan. 3, 2026.

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Best NBA prop picks Jan. 3: Back Clippers’ Derrick White, Trail Blazers’ Donovan Clingan

Derrick White and Donovan Clingan headline Saturday’s top NBA prop bets.

Tonight’s NBA props narrative: White is one of the league’s premier 3-point shooters and has a great matchup when the Boston Celtics visit the Los Angeles Clippers. Elsewhere, Clingan should feast on no rest against the Victor Wembanyama-less San Antonio Spurs.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Jan. 3, featuring a pick on Chicago Bulls forward Matas Buzelis.

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NBA prop picks Jan. 3

Best bet: White 4+ threes (+107)

White had an uncharacteristically poor start to his season as a 3-point shooter, but the guard has put that in the rear-view.

Check out what he has done from deep since Dec. 1:

4.0 makes/game
10.6 attempts/game
37.7 3PT%

That’s more in line with what we’re used to seeing.

The Celtics are a notoriously 3-point-heavy offence, ranking third in attempts this year after leading the league in the 2024-25 season. White averaged a career-high 3.5 threes on 38.4% shooting last year.

-> Bet on prop markets for Celtics vs. Clippers (ft. Derrick White)!

The Clippers own one of the worst perimeter defences in the NBA, allowing opponents to shoot 37.2% from deep (26th out of 30 teams).

White has gone under this mark in five straight games, but is still shooting with volume, and landed on three 3s twice.

He should get right in this matchup.

Key stat: White has cleared this mark in three straight games vs. L.A. while shooting 44.8% from deep.

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Best NBA picks

Clingan to record a double-double (–109): Clingan is almost always the tallest man on the court, and that will remain true tonight with Wembanyama sidelined.

The 7-foot-2 centre, 280-pound centre still has to contend with Luke Kornet and Kelly Olynyk, but neither is as imposing as Wembanyama defensively, or on the glass.

-> Full betting markets for Saturday’s NBA slate

Clingan is averaging a double-double this year (10.8 points, 10.5 rebounds), and I expect him to over-index in both categories tonight.

The Spurs are giving up the ninth-most points and 11th-most rebounds to opposing centres in the last 15 days. That is largely with Wembanyama playing, albeit on a minutes restriction.

Clingan has also done his best work on no rest, averaging 13.0 points and 14.0 rebounds in six games this year.

NBA player prop predictions

Buzelis over 16.5 points (-112): Chicago is missing its two top scorers, Josh Giddey and Colby White, tonight, putting Buzelis in a solid position to take the reins against the Charlotte Hornets.

The Lithuanian power forward is enjoying a solid sophomore season, starting all 33 games played while averaging 14.1 points — up considerably from his 8.6 PPG mark last year.

-> Don’t miss out — bet now on tonight’s NBA prop markets!

Buzelis has cleared this mark in consecutive games while averaging 15.5 field goal attempts. That type of volume should lead to a big night against Charlotte.

The Hornets are allowing the second-most PPG to opposing power forwards.

Buzelis is technically slated to start at small forward with Chicago’s injuries, but I’m not worried about that. Standing at 6-foot-8, he’s the modern NBA’s stereotypical positionally fluid wing.

NBA prop picks made at 8:54 a.m. ET on Jan. 3, 2026.

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Grizzlies vs. Lakers SGP predictions Jan. 2: Bet on Santi Aldama, Jake LaRavia in +310 ticket

The Memphis Grizzlies visit the Los Angeles Lakers in what should be a fun Friday night showdown.

The pregame narrative: I expect a healthy helping of points as Memphis visits Los Angeles. I’m looking beyond the top stars and looking for a pair of role players to step up with stellar performances.

Check out my Grizzlies vs. Lakers SGP predictions for Jan. 2, featuring prop bets on Jake LaRavia and Santi Aldama.

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Grizzlies vs. Lakers predictions

Parlay: Over 225.5 points | LaRavia over 10.5 points | Aldama over 14.5 points (+310)

Over 225. points (-385): Los Angeles has been one of the better overs teams in the NBA, and I expect both teams to clear this total.

The Lakers are 20-11 to the over this season, the second-best record in the league. They’ve gone over this total in 12 of their last 15 games.

Memphis, meanwhile, has been one of the better unders squads in the NBA. Still, the Grizzlies have been able to top this total in eight of their last nine outings.

-> Bet on the over here!

What helps is that these are two offences that put points up in different ways. The Lakers are seventh in offensive rating (115.6), but they run at an average pace.

Memphis, meanwhile, isn’t very efficient but is second in pace (104.3 possessions/game).

NBA SGP legs

LaRavia over 10.5 points (-104): This is a very fair line for somebody trending up like LaRavia.

The forward is only averaging 8.7 points per game, but that number is steadily rising.

LaRavia has posted 10.2 PPG across his last six games.

He has topped this total in four of his last six games.

Los Angeles battled Memphis earlier this season, and LaRavia had a solid 13-point showing.

-> Bet on the Lakers at NorthStar Bets!

Rui Hachimura is out again for the Lakers, which means LaRavia should continue to see increased usage.

He’s averaging 30.0 minutes in his last six games, which is up from his season-long average (25.5).

Aldama over 14.5 points (-110): Lastly, I’m taking the over on Aldama’s points prop.

The Spanish power forward is averaging just a tick under this total on the season (14.3), but there are a couple of indicators that suggest he’ll eclipse the mark tonight.

Firstly, Los Angeles hasn’t done a great job of defending power forwards. They’re ceding the ninth-most points per game to the position (23.6).

Secondly, his production is up in recent efforts. Aldama is averaging 17.9 points per game across his last 10 outings, eclipsing 20 points in four of those performances.

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Thunder vs. Warriors SGP predictions Jan. 2: OKC should win on the road, with Holmgren and Curry putting on a show

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Golden State Warriors begin the 2026 portion of their respective seasons on Friday night at Chase Center.

The pregame narrative: OKC shrugged off a 2-4 slump with three straight dominant wins to close out the calendar year. Now the Thunder are nearly double-digit road favourites against the Warriors tonight.

Check out my Thunder vs. Warriors SGP predictions for Jan. 2, featuring prop bets on Steph Curry and Chet Holmgren.

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Thunder vs. Warriors SGP

Parlay: Holmgren 30+ PRA | Curry 4+ threes | Thunder -4.5 (+300)

Holmgren 30+ points/rebounds/assists (-112): Golden State is a favourable matchup for opposing centres, and that’s a good place to start.

Here’s where the Warriors rank vs. centres this season, according to Fantasy Pros

14th in points/game
26th in rebounds/game
26th in assists/game

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Excluding one injury-shortened matchup against Golden State last fall — in which Holmgren exited in the first quarter with a hip injury — he has dominated in this matchup.

Holmgren is 4-0 vs. this PRA prop in four full games vs. the Warriors, averaging 25.3 points, 9.0 rebounds and 2.8 assists.

Also, the Thunder will play without Isaiah Hartenstein tonight, which should create more opportunities for Holmgren.

The former No. 2 overall pick is 4-1 vs. this PRA prop in his past five games without Hartenstein.

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NBA SGP legs

Curry 4+ threes (-265): The juice on this prop looks crazy at first, but it starts to make sense when you look at what Curry is still accomplishing in his age-37 season:

NBA-highs in 3s per game (4.8) and 3-point attempts per game (12.1).

Has 4+ threes in 18 of 25 games (72.0%).

-> Bet on Steph Curry vs. OKC

Curry has averaged at least 4.4 made 3s in six straight seasons. The greatest shooter ever isn’t slowing down just yet.

He’s also 9-1 vs. this 3s milestone in his past 10 games against OKC.

The Thunder allow the fourth-highest opponent 3PT% (37.4), so Curry’s continued success really isn’t a surprise.

Thunder -4.5 (-230): I’m cutting tonight’s spread in half, which should put the Thunder in a great spot to cash.

OKC is merely 17-17-0 ATS on the season, but the team is typically asked to cover much larger spreads than this. The Thunder have laid 10-plus points in 19 of their past 21 games.

A few recent losses to the San Antonio Spurs won’t muddy my opinion of the defending champs. The Thunder still have the best net rating in the NBA (+14.2), and they own a +11.9 average point differential in 15 road games.

Thunder vs. Warriors predictions made at 11:45 a.m. on Jan. 2, 2026.

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Best NBA prop picks Jan. 2: Trey Murphy, Anthony Black have plus matchups on Friday night

Trey Murphy headlines Friday night’s NBA prop picks as he looks to cash in on a Grade-A matchup.

Tonight’s NBA props narrative: For a second consecutive year, Murphy is averaging north of 20.0 points per game for the New Orleans Pelicans. Tonight’s matchup against the Portland Trail Blazers should have excellent scoring potential.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Jan. 2, featuring predictions on Anthony Black and Cedric Coward.

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NBA prop picks Jan. 2

Best bet: Murphy over 20.5 points (-104)

A pair of fast-paced, defensively inept squads meet up tonight in New Orleans, where the Pelicans host the Trail Blazers.

With a projected total of 244.5 points, this matchup has the second-highest over/under in the NBA’s 10-game slate. It’s an excellent matchup for Murphy to thrive in.

The Pelicans play at the ninth-fastest pace and allow the third-most points.

The Blazers play at the fifth-fastest pace and allow the sixth-most points.

-> Bet on prop markets for Blazers vs. Pelicans (ft. Trey Murphy)!

Murphy is sitting at 20.5 PPG this season. In a game that should feature plenty of possessions and minimal defence, I expect him to outperform his average.

The small forward is 16-17 vs. this prop, but he has at least 19 points in two-thirds of his games. So he’s often at or around this mark.

Portland allows the ninth-most points to opposing small forwards, per Fantasy Pros, and Murphy has thrived in this matchup recently. He’s 2-0 vs. this prop when facing the Blazers this year.

Key stat: Since February 2024, Murphy is 4-1 vs. this prop when facing Portland (averaging 24.2 PPG in those matchups).

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Best NBA picks

Coward over 23.5 points/rebounds/assists (–127): As you might expect from a rookie still finding his footing, Coward has been rather inconsistent this year for the Memphis Grizzlies.

But the ceiling is high for the 11th-overall pick out of Washington State, as demonstrated in his most recent game (vs. 76ers): 28 points, 16 rebounds, four assists.

Coward has fallen under this PRA prop more often than not, but some trends are working in his favour:

23.4 PRA in 19 games since joining the starting lineup.

24.7 PRA in 21 games without Zach Edey, who has been ruled out again tonight with an ankle injury.

-> Full betting markets for Friday’s NBA slate

Better yet, Coward has averaged 26.9 PRA over his past eight games — all as a starter, and all without Edey.

The rookie is worth a play tonight against the Lakers, who rank 25th in defensive rating. Back on Halloween, Coward came off the bench against the Lakers and put up 13 points, 10 rebounds and three assists.

NBA player prop predictions

Black over 16.5 points (-120): Black has already cashed this bet twice against the Chicago Bulls this season, and he came off the bench in both of those games:

Oct. 25: 19 points on 6-of-9 shooting (6-for-6 from the free throw line)

Dec. 1: 22 points on 8-of-15 shooting (2-for-5 from 3-point range)

-> Don’t miss out — bet now on tonight’s NBA prop markets!

In 10 games since joining Orlando’s starting rotation, Black is averaging 20.9 points on 16.4 shot attempts. He’s 7-3 vs. this line.

The Bulls allow the fourth-most points in the NBA and have failed to contain Black so far. Why would I expect that to be different tonight?

NBA prop picks made at 9:50 a.m. ET on Jan. 2, 2025.

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Best NBA prop picks Dec. 31: Bet on Giannis Antetokounmpo to go off on New Year’s Eve

There’s NBA action all day on New Year’s Eve, and I have prop picks to share from three different games.

Tonight’s NBA props narrative: In the final game on Wednesday, look for Antetokounmpo to have a monster performance against the Washington Wizards. Earlier on, Derik Queen has the right matchup to do damage.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Dec. 31, featuring a prediction on Stephon Castle.

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NBA prop picks Dec. 31

Best bet: Antetokounmpo over 27.5 points (-118)

The ‘Greek Freak’ missed most of December recovering from injury. Since he returned just after Christmas, he’s been on a minute restriction, but this number is achievable even in limited minutes.

Despite playing around 25 minutes in both games, Giannis is 1-1 against this line, finishing with 24+ points in each. He still has an incredibly high offensive floor.

On top of that, the total for this game is 246.5 points, the highest of any matchup today.

-> Bet on Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo!

There should be a lot of points scored, and the Wizards have no one to match Giannis in the paint.

Washington allows the fourth most points per game to power forwards (24.73). It also allows opponents to shoot 59.1% inside 10 feet.

That is where Giannis does most of his work, and he should take advantage of the Wizards’ poor rim defence.

Key stat: Antetokounmpo has gone over this total in five of his past seven games against the Wizards, averaging 33.0 points.

Best NBA picks

Queen over 12.5 points (-120): Another team that struggles to guard the paint is the Chicago Bulls.

And Queen can expose that on Wednesday.

Chicago concedes the third most points to centres (24.92), per Fantasy Pros.

Overall, the Bulls have the seventh-worst defensive rating in the NBA (119.3).

-> Full betting markets for Wednesday’s NBA slate

Queen has been solid as a rookie, scoring 13.3 points while making 22 starts for the New Orleans Pelicans.

He’s been even better over the last 10 games, upping his scoring average to 16.2 points while going 7-3 against this wager.

This has all the makings of a smash spot for Queen.

NBA player prop predictions

Castle over 6.5 assists (-137): The first thing to note is that Castle is questionable for tonight’s game.

If he plays, this is a great wager. If he doesn’t, it simply voids, and there’s no harm done.

Castle is having a tremendous second season as a passer, recording 7.0 assists per game.

-> Bet on tonight’s Knicks vs. Spurs matchup!

He’s been extremely consistent in that department. Castle has cashed this wager in six of the past seven games.

When Victor Wembanyama is also in the lineup, it makes it easy for Castle to rack up assists. He’s 12-4 against this wager in his last 16 games with Wemby active.

NBA prop picks made at 2:45 p.m. ET on Dec. 31, 2025.

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Trail Blazers vs. Thunder SGP predictions Dec. 31: Expect Jalen Williams to showout as a passer

The Portland Trail Blazers and Oklahoma City Thunder take part in the late-night slate on New Year’s Eve.

The pregame narrative: The Thunder are 6-4 in their last 10, but three of those losses came against the same team. OKC is still dominant and should be in for a double-digit win over the visiting Trail Blazers.

Check out my Trail Blazers vs. Thunder SGP predictions for Dec. 31, featuring prop bets on Deni Avdija and Jalen Williams.

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Trail Blazers vs. Thunder predictions

Parlay: Thunder -11.5 | Avdija under 24.5 points | Williams over 5.5 assists (+325)

Thunder -11.5 (-200): Taking the Thunder to cover a lofty spread still feels safe … against most teams.

They are 0-3 against the San Antonio Spurs, but the 14-19 Blazers are far from the championship-hopeful Spurs.

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Against every other team, the Thunder are 28-2 and 17-13 ATS. They are frequently given the task of covering spreads in the mid-teens, so buying a few points here on the alternate line is a nice way to start the SGP.

When OKC hosted Portland earlier this season, it ended in a 122-95 Thunder win.

Plus, the Thunder are healthy and have covered this spread in seven of their last eight victories.

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NBA SGP legs

Avdija under 24.5 points (-115): Avdija has had a mixed bag of results in his three games against the Thunder this season.

He’s gone over this mark in two games and under in one, but he’s shot below 43% in every game and under 30% twice.

The reason he was able to go over was due to his free throws. He took 23 free throws in one game and 16 in another.

-> Fade Avdija vs. OKC

He has shot 16-plus free throws one other time this season.

When he scored 11 in the game played in Oklahoma City, he only took three free throws.

Considering OKC is a below-average team in terms of free throws allowed, it’s hard to imagine Avidja gets fouled enough again to go over this line.

The Thunder have the best defensive rating in the NBA (105.0).

Williams over 5.5 assists (-137): Williams has played 14 games since returning from injury, and he’s made an immediate impact as a playmaker.

He’s averaging over 5.0 assists for the second straight year. And that number could rise quickly with how he’s been playing.

Williams has finished with six or more assists in four straight games.

His overall floor as a playmaker is quite high, too. The versatile forward has five-plus assists in 11 of the 14 games he’s played this year.

Trail Blazers vs. Thunder predictions made at 12:25 p.m. on Dec. 31, 2025.

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