Category: NBA

In a marquee late-night NBA showdown, the Los Angeles Clippers host the Golden State Warriors.

The pregame narrative: The Clippers are still well outside the playoff picture, but they’re 6-1 in their past seven games. Golden State is a 3-point road favourite despite a subpar 8-12 road record.

Check out my Warriors vs. Clippers SGP predictions for Jan. 5, featuring prop bets on Steph Curry, James Harden and Brandin Podziemski.

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Warriors vs. Clippers SGP

Parlay: Harden under 7.5 assists | Curry 25+ points | Podziemski over 1.5 threes (+510)

Harden under 7.5 assists (+108): Harden knows how to dish the rock, and he’s the primary facilitator for the Clippers, but this seems like good value on a fade.

The Beard is averaging 8.0 assists this season, which is his lowest mark in the past six years. And his passing production has been on the decline lately.

• Since Dec. 1, Harden has averaged 7.0 APG, going under 7.5 assists in 10 of 13 games.

• In that 13-game span, he has logged an average of 11.8 potential assists (i.e., passes that lead directly to a shot). At that volume, his teammates would have to be ultra-efficient for him to accrue at least eight assists.

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The Warriors’ defence is among the best, ranking seventh in points allowed and fifth in defensive rating. They likely won’t make things easy on Harden and the Clippers’ offence.

In his lone matchup vs. Golden State earlier this season, Harden tallied just one assist in 32 minutes.

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NBA SGP legs

Curry 25+ threes (-215): A little over a month ago, Curry missed a handful of games with a quad injury. But he’s been making up for lost time since his return.

• In 10 games since re-entering the Warriors’ lineup, Curry is averaging 30.2 points on 46.1/41.0/93.9 shooting splits.

• As usual, Curry’s 3-point shooting volume is a key driver of his offensive success. For the fifth time in six seasons, he’s averaging NBA-highs in 3-point makes (4.8/game) and attempts (12.1/game).

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Curry is 8-2 vs. this prop following his injury. On the season, he’s 17-9 vs. this scoring milestone.

Last season, in his lone matchup at Intuit Dome, Curry shot 6-of-15 from deep as part of a 26-point performance.

Podziemski over 1.5 threes (-114): Curry’s 3-point shooting doesn’t leave many opportunities for his teammates, but Podziemski is pretty reliable against this line.

The 2023 first-rounder has cashed this bet in 21 of 36 games (58.3%) this season, which comfortably exceeds the implied probability of this market price (53.3%).

Podziemski is averaging 1.9 made 3s on 4.8 attempts. He went 2-for-6 from deep against the Clippers in a matchup back in October.

L.A. profiles as a promising matchup for Podziemski and any other 3-point shooter. The team allows the fourth-highest 3PT% in the league (37.6).

Warriors vs. Clippers predictions made at 3:45 p.m. on Jan. 5, 2026.

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VJ Edgecombe is on a scoring binge and I expect that to continue against the Denver Nuggets on Monday night.

Tonight’s NBA props narrative: The Philadelphia 76ers rookie is averaging 21.2 points over his past nine games entering tonight’s home date vs. the Nuggets. Elsewhere, Deni Avdija will put his high-volume assist production to the test in a matchup built for offence.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Jan. 5, featuring a prediction on Dillon Brooks.

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NBA prop picks Jan. 5

Best bet: Avdija over 8.5 assists (-129)

Monday’s game between the Portland Trail Blazers and Utah Jazz has the highest projected total of the night (243 points), and it’s easy to see why.

• Utah and Portland both rank inside the top five in pace (i.e., possessions per game).

• The Jazz are allowing the most points per game in the NBA (126.7).

• Overs are 6-1 in the past seven meetings between these Western Conference teams — including a 136-134 win for the Blazers back in October.

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With all of that in mind, these teams should be trading buckets with ease. And I expect Avdija to help facilitate that.

Jrue Holiday’s calf strain early in the season elevated Avdija into the role as Portland’s top passer. He’s averaging 8.3 assists in 24 games without Holiday — after averaging 4.6 assists in 12 games with the veteran.

Those assist numbers have ratcheted up even higher in recent games. Avdija is 7-2 vs. this prop in his past nine, good for 9.6 APG in that span.

In fact, he’s finished with a double-digit assist total in four of his past five. With the scoring potential of tonight’s matchup against the defensively inept Jazz, that’s very much in play again.

Key stat: Utah is allowing an NBA-high 30.1 assists per game.

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Best NBA picks

Edgecombe over 16.5 points (–114): The 76ers are catching the Nuggets at a good time, and I like Edgecombe to take advantage.

Denver will be playing its third road game in four nights (without its all-world centre Nikola Jokic, to boot). On Sunday, the Nuggets coughed up 127 points to the lowly Brooklyn Nets in a loss.

Enter Edgecombe, who has scored more than 20 points in seven of his past nine games.

He’s putting up plenty of 3s right now, which certainly helps the scoring upside. In that nine-game span, Edgecombe is shooting 39.1% on 7.7 attempted 3s per game.

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Joel Embiid is probable to play for the Sixers, but the two-time scoring champ shouldn’t bite into too many opportunities for Edgecombe.

The first-year guard has cashed this bet in five of his past six games with Embiid in the starting lineup.

NBA player prop predictions

Brooks over 19.5 points (-108): Yesterday, I backed Brooks to go over 18.5 points at a -124 price against the toughest defence in the NBA. He came through, dropping 22 points on the OKC Thunder.

It doesn’t get a lot easier for Brooks tonight in Houston, as the Rockets are sixth in defensive rating while playing at the league’s third-slowest pace. Still, I see value here.

• Brooks is averaging a career-best 21.4 PPG.

• He has 20+ points in 16 of 29 games (hitting the 18-point mark 23 times).

• Brooks is 12-8 vs. this line since Nov. 21, and he finished with either 18 or 19 points in five of the outliers.

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Better yet, the Mississauga, Ontario native has already cashed this bet twice against his former team. He had 23 points in Houston on Dec. 5 and 29 points at home against the Rockets on Nov. 24.

The 29-point effort was on the second half of a back-to-back, which makes tonight’s no-rest scenario less daunting to bet on, too.

NBA prop picks made at 9:50 a.m. ET on Jan. 5, 2026.

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The Milwaukee Bucks and Sacramento Kings take part in what I feel should be a one-sided matchup.

The pregame narrative: Giannis Antetokounmpo is probable for tonight’s contest. If he plays, the Bucks have a good shot at beating what should be a fatigued Kings squad.

Check out my Bucks vs. Kings SGP predictions for Jan. 4, featuring prop bets on Giannis and Ryan Rollins.

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Bucks vs. Kings SGP

Parlay: Giannis 30+ points | Rollins 2+ threes | Bucks -6.5 (+380)

Giannis 30+ points (-115): Giannis’s status is important, but being listed as probable is enough for me to build an SGP around him in this matchup.

The Kings lack paint defence, and I don’t have to sell his ability to take advantage of that.

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They allow the second-most points in the paint per game (55.6) and the fourth-most points to power forwards per game (24.57).

So if I can get the best power forward in the NBA to score around his season average at a playable price, I’ll take it, even if he’s on a minutes restriction.

Giannis has scored 30+ points in back-to-back games while playing less than 30 minutes.

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NBA SGP legs

Rollins 2+ threes (-265): This is supposed to be the safest leg of the parlay based on the odds, and I think that will hold.

Rollins is a sniper, hitting 2.5 threes per game at a 42.2% clip.

The Bucks’ starting point guard is coming off a 29-point performance over the Charlotte Hornets, playing 36 minutes in the win.

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He hit 6-of-7 threes, which put him at eight straight games with at least two made 3s. During that time, he made 3.3 threes per game at a 53.1% clip.

Rollins is white-hot right now, playing against the team with the fourth-worst defensive rating in the NBA (121.4). This pick feels like a no-brainer.

Bucks -6.5 (-110): This is an all-Bucks SGP, concluding with a prediction that Milwaukee wins this game handily.

The Bucks obviously look way better when Giannis is playing but this leg is mainly a fade of the Kings.

• They are 8-27 overall while dealing with injuries for Domantas Sabonis (out) and Zach LaVine (GTD). LaVine hasn’t played since Dec. 14, so even if he’s available, he should be on a restriction.

• Plus, Sacramento has played a lot over the past eight days. This will be the team’s fifth game in that span.

Things aren’t looking up for the Kings, at least anytime soon, and chances are they’re sellers at the deadline.

The Bucks are 12-9 with Giannis in the lineup and can still make a run at the postseason if he can stay healthy.

There’s too much to like on the side of Milwaukee.

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Bucks vs. Kings predictions made at 11:43 a.m. on Jan. 4, 2026.

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Bam Adebayo and Naz Reid have some Grade-A matchups that are worth targeting in Sunday’s NBA prop market.

Tonight’s NBA props narrative: Adebayo faces the banged-up New Orleans Pelicans, who could be without Derik Queen and Trey Murphy. As for Reid, he’s facing an opponent that gives up a lot of opportunities on the perimeter.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Jan. 4, featuring a prediction on Dillon Brooks.

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NBA prop picks Jan. 4

Best bet: Reid over 2.5 threes (-118)

The Minnesota Timberwolves’ most effective 3-point shooter since the start of December isn’t Anthony Edwards. It’s not Donte DiVincenzo, either.

It’s Reid, who is shooting 37.3% from outside — the highest clip among T-wolves averaging at least 2.0 attempted 3s per game.

• Reid comes off the bench for Minnesota, but that doesn’t really take a bite out of his shot volume. On the season, he’s averaging 6.6 attempted 3s (second-most among all NBA centres).

• From Dec. 1 onward, Reid has been particularly active from deep. He’s averaging 2.9 makes on 7.9 attempts in that span.

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Tonight’s matchup against the Washington Wizards is a great one for Reid to continue firing away.

Washington allows the fourth-most 3s — makes and attempts — per game this season.

Last year, Reid shot 10-for-20 from deep against the Wizards in three matchups and went 2-1 vs. this prop.

Key stat: Reid is 10-6 vs. this 3s prop in his past 16 games.

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Best NBA picks

Adebayo over 30.5 points/rebounds/assists (–114): Adebayo has had more than his share of poor shooting performances recently, but he’s in a get-right spot tonight against the Pelicans.

• New Orleans allows the sixth-most points, the fifth-most rebounds and the second-most assists to opposing centres (per Fantasy Pros).

• Last season, Adebayo had 39 and 42 PRA, respectively, in his two matchups vs. the Pelicans.

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Over his past seven games, Adebayo is shooting a miserable 38.8%. For a guy with a 53.2% career field goal percentage, that’s almost hard to do.

The Pelicans are a Grade-A matchup all the way around, so even if the scoring sags a bit, there are other ways he can stuff the stat sheet.

But I think now is the right time for the bruising centre to regain his scoring touch, too.

NBA player prop predictions

Brooks over 18.5 points (-124): Brooks and the Suns will face the defending champion Thunder for the third time this season, and it’s obviously a brutal matchup for any score.

After all, OKC ranks first in defensive rating (104.1), opponent points (107.1/game) and opponent field goal percentage (43.1%).

With that said, you should expect a below-average scoring output from Brooks tonight … but that’s already accounted for with this line.

• In 28 games this season, Brooks is averaging 21.4 PPG.

• He has 18+ points in 22 of 28 games.

• Brooks is 12-7 vs. this line since Nov. 21, and he finished with exactly 18 points in four of the outliers.

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The Mississauga, Ontario native scored 16 and 19 points, respectively, in his two prior matchups against the champs. In the 16-point effort, he only played 26 minutes in a 49-point blowout loss (Brooks averages over 30 minutes per night).

I don’t expect Brooks to soar past this number, but as long as the Suns don’t get laughed out of their own building, he’ll have a solid shot at the over.

NBA prop picks made at 9:50 a.m. ET on Jan. 4, 2026.

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