Category: MLB

Mariners vs. Blue Jays Game 2 ALCS best bets: Back Santander, Toronto’s bats on Monday

Mariners vs. Blue Jays best bets

The Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners meet for a pivotal ALCS Game 2 on this Canadian Thanksgiving Monday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto lost the series opener last night and will be desperate to even the score before heading west to Seattle for Games 3-5. The Jays turn to rookie sensation Trey Yesavage, who is pitching opposite Logan Gilbert.

Check out my Mariners vs. Blue Jays best bets for ALDS Game 2, featuring a prop bet on Anthony Santander.

Mariners vs. Blue Jays best bets

Best bet: Blue Jays over 3.5 runs (-130)

I took the Jays to go over 4.5 runs yesterday, which looked great after George Springer belted a leadoff home run in the first inning.

Toronto’s bats fell silent afterward, logging just one more hit, but I’ll go back to the well with one less run against Gilbert.

The Blue Jays had the best offence in the second half, and still lead the MLB playoffs in the following categories:

  • Runs per game (7.0)
  • Batting average (.294)
  • Slugging percentage (.531)
  • OPS (.864)
  • K rate (15.8%)

Gilbert is an elite arm. His 3.02 xERA ranks in the 88th percentile on Baseball Savant, and his 32.7% K rate was second among starters with 70+ innings pitched.

But Toronto rarely goes down on strikes (the club only had four Ks yesterday), and the fireballing righty is pitching on short rest after throwing 34 pitches in Seattle’s ALDS Game 5 win on Friday.

Gilbert has also been hit hard by the Jays’ active lineup, allowing a .309 batting average and .543 slugging percentage in 100 combined plate apperances.

I’ll bank on a bounce back from John Schneider’s group on Monday.

Key stat: Toronto went over 3.5 runs in eight straight games prior to Game 1.

Other MLB postseason predictions

Santander over 0.5 hits (-125): Santander was one of two Blue Jays to record a hit yesterday, logging a single off Bryce Miller in the second inning.

The switch-hitter is now 3-1 against this line in the postseason, with a 30.7% K rate and zero walks.

I’d like to see less swing-and-miss, but at least Santander is swinging. And his zero walks are great for a market like this.

Santander’s numbers against Gilbert are strikingly similar.

He’s 3-for-9 against the righty with three Ks and zero walks. Santander has a .295 xBA in those at-bats, so I know he hasn’t lucked into that production.

Mariners vs. Blue Jays best bets as of 11:05 a.m. on 10/13/2025.

Mariners vs. Blue Jays Game 2 ALCS best bets: Back Santander, Toronto’s bats on Monday

Mariners vs. Blue Jays best bets

The Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners meet for a pivotal ALCS Game 2 on this Canadian Thanksgiving Monday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto lost the series opener last night and will be desperate to even the score before heading west to Seattle for Games 3-5. The Jays turn to rookie sensation Trey Yesavage, who is pitching opposite Logan Gilbert.

Check out my Mariners vs. Blue Jays best bets for ALDS Game 2, featuring a prop bet on Anthony Santander.

Mariners vs. Blue Jays best bets

Best bet: Blue Jays over 3.5 runs (-137)

I took the Jays to go over 4.5 runs yesterday, which looked great after George Springer belted a leadoff home run in the first inning.

Toronto’s bats fell silent afterward, logging just one more hit, but I’ll go back to the well with one less run against Gilbert.

The Blue Jays had the best offence in the second half, and still lead the MLB playoffs in the following categories:

  • Runs per game (7.0)
  • Batting average (.294)
  • Slugging percentage (.531)
  • OPS (.864)
  • K rate (15.8%)

Gilbert is an elite arm. His 3.02 xERA ranks in the 88th percentile on Baseball Savant, and his 32.7% K rate was second among starters with 70+ innings pitched.

But Toronto rarely goes down on strikes (the club only had four Ks yesterday), and the fireballing righty is pitching on short rest after throwing 34 pitches in Seattle’s ALDS Game 5 win on Friday.

Gilbert has also been hit hard by the Jays’ active lineup, allowing a .309 batting average and .543 slugging percentage in 100 combined plate apperances.

I’ll bank on a bounce back from John Schneider’s group on Monday.

Key stat: Toronto went over 3.5 runs in eight straight games prior to Game 1.

Embed: #119246

Other MLB postseason predictions

Santander over 0.5 hits (-124): Santander was one of two Blue Jays to record a hit yesterday, logging a single off Bryce Miller in the second inning.

The switch-hitter is now 3-1 against this line in the postseason, with a 30.7% K rate and zero walks.

I’d like to see less swing-and-miss, but at least Santander is swinging. And his zero walks is great for a market like this.

Santander’s numbers against Gilbert are strikingly similar.

He’s 3-for-9 against the righty with three Ks and zero walks. Santander has a .295 xBA in those at-bats, so I know he hasn’t lucked into that production.

Mariners vs. Blue Jays best bets as of 11:05 a.m. on 10/13/2025.

Mariners vs. Blue Jays Game 2 ALCS SGP predictions: Bet on Yesavage to build off historic playoff debut

Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions

After a subdued series opener, the Toronto Blue Jays look to even things up at home on Monday in Game 2 of the ALCS.

The pregame narrative: Toronto struck first but went quietly after that in Sunday’s 3-1 loss to the Seattle Mariners. The Jays are favourites on Thanksgiving behind Trey Yesavage, who returns to the mound after a historic postseason debut.

Check out my Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions for ALCS Game 2, featuring prop bets on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Cal Raleigh.

Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions

Parlay: Guerrero 2+ bases | Yesavage 6+ Ks | Raleigh to record a hit (+500)

Guerrero over 1.5 total bases (+100): Guerrero went 0-for-4 in Game 1, but he put the ball in play every time and hit a couple of rockets.

Two of his balls in play had an exit velocity north of 107 mph, according to Baseball Savant. That type of contact is fairly commonplace for Guerrero, who ranked in the 90th percentile in hard-hit rate this year (50.7%).

The problem sometimes is that he’ll pound those hard-hit baseballs into the dirt for grounders. But I like his chances of elevating against Seattle’s Logan Gilbert today.

  • Gilbert’s ground ball rate (39.8%) ranks in the 39th percentile. He’s known as an elite strikeout arm, not a guy who’ll convert a bunch of groundouts.
  • Vlad Jr. has an elite contact bat, ranking in the 90th percentile in K rate and the 100th percentile in xBA. The concern with him is about getting the ball off the ground, and he can do that in this matchup.
  • Guerrero is 6-for-15 (.400) with two home runs, two doubles and just two strikeouts vs. Gilbert.

MLB SGP legs

Yesavage over 5.5 strikeouts (-118): Rogers Centre was going berserk when Yesavage last took the mound. He struck out 11 batters in ALDS Game 2, setting a new single-game postseason record for the franchise.

In his first month as a big-leaguer, Yesavage has collected 27 Ks over 19.1 innings. He’s 2-2 vs. this prop, landing on exactly five strikeouts in one of his unders.

Monday’s matchup will be pressure-packed, especially with the Jays trailing early in the series. But the rookie right-hander joined Toronto amid a tense division race, so he’s been pitching under pressure this whole time.

The Mariners had the seventh-highest K rate during the regular season (23.3%). They’re up to a 28.0 K% in the playoffs.

Raleigh to record a hit (-175): As a switch-hitter with more than 20 homers from both sides of the plate, Raleigh is pretty much matchup-proof.

The MVP candidate is 10-for-25 (.400) in the postseason, going 6-0 vs. this prop.

Raleigh put the Mariners on the board in the sixth inning of Game 1, blasting a 420-foot homer off Gausman to turn the tide.

Any old hit will do today, though, and I expect Raleigh to get it done.

Blue Jays picks as of 10:26 a.m. on 10/13/2025.

Mariners vs. Blue Jays Game 2 ALCS SGP predictions: Bet on Yesavage to build off historic playoff debut

Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions

After a subdued series opener, the Toronto Blue Jays look to even things up at home on Monday in Game 2 of the ALCS.

The pregame narrative: Toronto struck first but went quietly after that in Sunday’s 3-1 loss to the Seattle Mariners. The Jays are favourites on Thanksgiving behind Trey Yesavage, who returns to the mound after a historic postseason debut.

Check out my Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions for ALCS Game 2, featuring prop bets on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Cal Raleigh.

Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions

Parlay: Guerrero 2+ bases | Yesavage 5+ Ks | Raleigh to record a hit (+390)

Guerrero over 1.5 total bases (-124): Guerrero went 0-for-4 in Game 1, but he put the ball in play every time and hit a couple of rockets.

Two of his balls in play had an exit velocity north of 107 mph, according to Baseball Savant. That type of contact is fairly commonplace for Guerrero, who ranked in the 90th percentile in hard-hit rate this year (50.7%).

The problem sometimes is that he’ll pound those hard-hit baseballs into the dirt for grounders. But I like his chances of elevating against Seattle’s Logan Gilbert today.

  • Gilbert’s ground ball rate (39.8%) ranks in the 39th percentile. He’s known as an elite strikeout arm, not a guy who’ll convert a bunch of groundouts.
  • Vlad Jr. has an elite contact bat, ranking in the 90th percentile in K rate and the 100th percentile in xBA. The concern with him is about getting the ball off the ground, and he can do that in this matchup.
  • Guerrero is 6-for-15 (.400) with two home runs, two doubles and just two strikeouts vs. Gilbert.

Embed: #119240

MLB SGP legs

Yesavage over 4.5 strikeouts (-195): Rogers Centre was going berserk when Yesavage last took the mound. He struck out 11 batters in ALDS Game 2, setting a new single-game postseason record for the franchise.

In his first month as a big-leaguer, Yesavage has collected 27 Ks over 19.1 innings. He’s 3-1 vs. this prop.

Monday’s matchup will be pressure-packed, especially with the Jays trailing early in the series. But the rookie right-hander joined Toronto amid a tense division race, so he’s been pitching under pressure this whole time.

The Mariners had the seventh-highest K rate during the regular season (23.3%). They’re up to a 28.0 K% in the playoffs.

Raleigh to record a hit (-148): I view this as a playable standalone pick, even with all the extra juice.

As a switch-hitter with more than 20 homers from both sides of the plate, Raleigh is pretty much matchup-proof.

The MVP candidate is 10-for-25 (.400) in the postseason, going 6-0 vs. this prop.

Raleigh put the Mariners on the board in the sixth inning of Game 1, blasting a 420-foot homer off Gausman to turn the tide.

Any old hit will do today, though, and I expect Raleigh to get it done.

Blue Jays picks as of 9:36 a.m. on 10/13/2025.

Dodgers vs. Brewers Game 1 NLCS SGP predictions: Fade Yelich but expect Milwaukee to keep it close

Dodgers vs. Brewers predictions

The reigning champion Los Angeles Dodgers are back in the NLCS, facing the top-seeded Milwaukee Brewers.

The pregame narrative: Milwaukee is back in the NLCS for just the third time since the 1980s, while L.A. is in its seventh league championship series of the decade. Neither starting pitcher had been confirmed at the time of this writing, but Blake Snell and Quinn Priester appear lined up to take the mound.

Check out my Dodgers vs. Brewers predictions for NLCS Game 1, featuring a prop bet on Christian Yelich.

Dodgers vs. Brewers predictions

Parlay: Yelich under 0.5 hits | Dodgers under 4.5 runs | Brewers +2.5 (+300)

Yelich under 0.5 hits (+118): Assuming Snell takes the mound against the Brewers, I expect him to make life difficult for Yelich.

It’s a lefty-on-lefty matchup, which does not work in Yelich’s favour. During the regular season, he had an 87 wRC+ and a 27.7% K rate vs. LHPs.

Yelich was a pedestrian 5-for-19 (.263) in the NLDS with a .679 OPS.

Snell was stupendous in his first two postseason starts, allowing just five hits while striking out 18 batters in 13.0 innings. He also allowed five walks.

According to Baseball Savant, Yelich has a 20th-percentile strikeout rate and a 71st-percentile walk rate. I could see him reaching base or walking back to the dugout without even touching the ball.

Embed: #119206

MLB SGP legs

Dodgers under 4.5 runs (-130): At first glance, this seems like a very attainable run total for the Dodgers to clear.

And it is, given their average of 5.1 runs per game this season.

But the Brewers are no average matchup, and I like fading L.A. at this number in Game 1.

  • This under is 56-28 for road teams facing the Brewers this year. Milwaukee’s opponents averaged 3.7 runs/game at American Family Field.
  • In the NLDS, the Brewers held the Cubs to seven total runs across three home games, cashing this bet each time.

During the regular season, the Dodgers only scored four total runs across three matchups in Milwaukee.

And when Priester started against the Dodgers in L.A. in July, he held them to three hits over 6.0 scoreless innings in a 2-0 Milwaukee win.

Brewers +2.5 (-240): It’s rare for any team to have prolonged success against the Dodgers, but that’s what the Brewers have established entering the NLCS.

Dating back to last season, Milwaukee has won eight straight games against L.A. — including five at home.

I’m not sold on the Brewers winning outright with a red-hot Blake Snell on the mound, but Priester (13-3, 3.32 ERA) is no slouch. And behind Priester is a bullpen that ranked sixth in ERA this season.

Milwaukee’s 55-29 record at home this season is the third-best in the majors. Adding a couple of runs of cushion should put the Brew Crew in a strong position to cover.

Dodgers vs. Brewers predictions as of 2:26 p.m. on 10/12/2025.

Mariners vs. Blue Jays Game 1 ALCS SGP predictions: Bet on Kirk to shine, Toronto to cover the run line at home

Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions

For the first time in nine years, the ALCS is back in Toronto, as the Blue Jays host the Seattle Mariners for Game 1 on Sunday night.

The pregame narrative: Two nights ago, the Mariners used seven pitchers — including their top three starters — to earn an ALCS berth. That puts Toronto in a favourable position to win this series. Backed by Kevin Gausman, the Blue Jays are expected to win Game 1 tonight.

Check out my Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions for ALCS Game 1, featuring prop bets on Josh Naylor and Alejandro Kirk.

Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions

Parlay: Blue Jays -1.5 | Naylor to record a hit | Kirk to record a hit (+300)

Blue Jays -1.5 (+115): Rest advantage isn’t talked about in baseball nearly as much as in football or basketball. But there should be a notable edge for Toronto in the series opener.

The Jays have had three full days off, providing plenty of time to nurse celebration hangovers, work on drills at their home park and line up their pitching rotation however they please.

The Mariners didn’t punch their ALCS ticket until the wee hours of Saturday morning (in eastern time), having gutted through a 15-inning slog against the Tigers.

Between the final out of Seattle’s ALDS and the first out of its ALCS, fewer than 43 hours will have passed — with a boozy celebration and a cross-country flight in between.

That’s one layer of this prediction, but it’s far from the only one.

  • Toronto is 4-2 vs. Seattle this year, and all four wins covered a -1.5 run line.
  • The Jays are 7-1 in their past eight games overall. They covered a -1.5 run line in every win during that span (they also led 6-1 in the lone loss).
  • Seattle’s Bryce Miller allowed seven runs on eight hits in his lone start vs. Toronto this season (a 9-1 win for the Jays).
  • At home, Toronto has an MLB-best record (56-27) and a +109 run differential.

MLB SGP legs

Naylor to record a hit (-223): Naylor was a great trade deadline addition for the Mariners, and he’s kept that rolling into October.

  • Post-trade in the regular season, Naylor slashed .299/.341/.490 in 54 games for Seattle.
  • In Games 4 and 5 of the ALDS, he went 6-for-10 with two doubles.

The Mississauga, Ontario native has felt right at home inside Rogers Centre, batting 16-for-51 (.314) with three doubles and a home run.

Against Gausman, Naylor is 4-for-11 lifetime.

Kirk to record a hit (-264): Kirk is among several Blue Jays worth backing on Sunday. I chose him because of his success against Miller’s pitch mix.

Against right-handed batters, Miller throws a combination of four-seamers, sinkers and splitters more than 75% of the time, per Baseball Savant.

Kirk had a .322 xBA and a .544 xSLG off those pitch types this year.

The two-time all-star catcher cashed this bet in three of four ALDS games. And his .290 xBA on the season ranked in the 90th percentile in the majors.

As for Miller, his .285 xBA ranked in the seventh percentile among pitchers.

Blue Jays picks as of 12 p.m. on 10/12/2025.

Mariners vs. Blue Jays Game 1 ALCS SGP predictions: Bet on Kirk to shine, Toronto to cover the run line at home

Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions

For the first time in nine years, the ALCS is back in Toronto, as the Blue Jays host the Seattle Mariners for Game 1 on Sunday night.

The pregame narrative: Two nights ago, the Mariners used seven pitchers — including their top three starters — to earn an ALCS berth. That puts Toronto in a favourable position to win this series. Backed by Kevin Gausman, the Blue Jays are expected to win Game 1 tonight.

Check out my Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions for ALCS Game 1, featuring prop bets on Josh Naylor and Alejandro Kirk.

Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions

Parlay: Blue Jays -1.5 | Naylor to record a hit | Kirk to record a hit (+390)

Blue Jays -1.5 (+128): Rest advantage isn’t talked about in baseball nearly as much as in football or basketball. But there should be a notable edge for Toronto in the series opener.

The Jays have had three full days off, providing plenty of time to nurse celebration hangovers, work on drills at their home park and line up their pitching rotation however they please.

The Mariners didn’t punch their ALCS ticket until the wee hours of Saturday morning (in eastern time), having gutted through a 15-inning slog against the Tigers.

Between the final out of Seattle’s ALDS and the first out of its ALCS, fewer than 43 hours will have passed — with a boozy celebration and a cross-country flight in between.

That’s one layer of this prediction, but it’s far from the only one.

  • Toronto is 4-2 vs. Seattle this year, and all four wins covered a -1.5 run line.
  • The Jays are 7-1 in their past eight games overall. They covered a -1.5 run line in every win during that span (they also led 6-1 in the lone loss).
  • Seattle’s Bryce Miller allowed seven runs on eight hits in his lone start vs. Toronto this season (a 9-1 win for the Jays).
  • At home, Toronto has an MLB-best record (56-27) and a +109 run differential.

Embed: #119152

MLB SGP legs

Naylor to record a hit (-180): Naylor was a great trade deadline addition for the Mariners, and he’s kept that rolling into October.

  • Post-trade in the regular season, Naylor slashed .299/.341/.490 in 54 games for Seattle.
  • In Games 4 and 5 of the ALDS, he went 6-for-10 with two doubles.

The Mississauga, Ontario native has felt right at home inside Rogers Centre, batting 16-for-51 (.314) with three doubles and a home run.

Against Gausman, Naylor is 4-for-11 lifetime.

Kirk to record a hit (-240): Kirk is among several Blue Jays worth backing on Sunday. I chose him because of his success against Miller’s pitch mix.

Against right-handed batters, Miller throws a combination of four-seamers, sinkers and splitters more than 75% of the time, per Baseball Savant.

Kirk had a .322 xBA and a .544 xSLG off those pitch types this year.

The two-time all-star catcher cashed this bet in three of four ALDS games. And his .290 xBA on the season ranked in the 90th percentile in the majors.

As for Miller, his .285 xBA ranked in the seventh percentile among pitchers.

Blue Jays picks as of 9:26 a.m. on 10/12/2025.

Mariners vs. Blue Jays Game 1 ALCS best bets: Bet on Guerrero to lead a blowout

Mariners vs. Blue Jays best bets

The Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners battle for a World Series spot, with each team trying to draw first blood in Game 1 at Rogers Centre on Sunday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto has a nice rest advantage after clinching its ALCS ticket on Wednesday, and is favoured to win the series opener behind Kevin Gausman. Seattle had to use seven pitchers in its 15-inning Game 5 win over the Detroit Tigers, and will have few options to turn to in Game 1.

Check out my Mariners vs. Blue Jays best bets for ALDS Game 1, featuring a prop bet on Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Mariners vs. Blue Jays best bets

Best bet: Blue Jays over 4.5 runs (+105)

This might seem like a bold play given Seattle’s elite pitching depth, but have you seen what Toronto’s done in the postseason so far?

  • 8.5 runs per game (first)
  • .338 batting average (first)
  • .601 slugging percentage (first)
  • 16.1% strikeout rate (first)

Are the Jays due for a little regression? Probably. But I don’t think it happens on Sunday.

Seattle was forced to empty the tank against Detroit in the final game of the NLDS. It deployed seven pitchers and three starters (George Kirby, Luis Castillo, and Logan Gilbert) in the win.

That means the only fully-rested starter is Miller, who has been awful this season.

Miller owns a 5.68 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP and ranks in the 25th percentile or worse in xBA, xSLG, K rate and hard-hit rate, per Baseball Savant.

MLB.com predicts Miller will start Game 1, and I think Toronto could clear this line before he exits the game.

Key stat: Toronto’s lineup is batting .333 with a .538 SLG against Miller in 39 combined at-bats.

Other MLB postseason predictions

Guerrero to score (-112): I really can’t believe Guerrero is plus money to score.

Toronto’s $500 million man lived up to the hype against the New York Yankees in the ALDS. He posted a .529/.550/.1.059 slash line through four games, belting three home runs and scoring five runs.

Seattle will probably want to pitch around Guerrero, which is fine, because a walk will put us in a great position here.

But if the Mariners try to pitch to him, even better.

Behind Guerrero is a red-hot lineup featuring names like Nathan Lukes, Daulton Varsho, and Ernie Clement swinging the bat well.

Bo Bichette also might get the start, which is intriguing.

Mariners vs. Blue Jays best bets as of 1:15 p.m. on 10/11/2025.

Mariners vs. Blue Jays Game 1 ALCS best bets: Bet on Guerrero and Santander to lead a blowout

Mariners vs. Blue Jays best bets

The Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners battle for a World Series spot, with each team trying to draw first blood in Game 1 at Rogers Centre on Sunday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto has a nice rest advantage after clinching its ALCS ticket on Wednesday, and is favoured to win the series opener behind Kevin Gausman. Seattle had to use seven pitchers in its 15-inning Game 5 win over the Detroit Tigers, and will have few options to turn to in Game 1.

Check out my Mariners vs. Blue Jays best bets for ALDS Game 1, featuring prop bets on Anthony Santander and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Mariners vs. Blue Jays best bets

Best bet: Blue Jays over 4.5 runs (+123)

This might seem like a bold play given Seattle’s elite pitching depth, but have you seen what Toronto’s done in the postseason so far?

  • 8.5 runs per game (first)
  • .338 batting average (first)
  • .601 slugging percentage (first)
  • 16.1% strikeout rate (first)

Are the Jays due for a little regression? Probably. But I don’t think it happens on Sunday.

Seattle was forced to empty the tank against Detroit in the final game of the NLDS. It deployed seven pitchers and three starters (George Kirby, Luis Castillo, and Logan Gilbert) in the win.

That means the only fully-rested starter is Miller, who has been awful this season.

Miller owns a 5.68 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP and ranks in the 25th percentile or worse in xBA, xSLG, K rate and hard-hit rate, per Baseball Savant.

MLB.com predicts Miller will start Game 1, and I think Toronto could clear this line before he exits the game.

Key stat: Toronto’s lineup is batting .333 with a .538 SLG against Miller in 39 combined at-bats.

Embed: #119136

Other MLB postseason predictions

Guerrero to score (+100): I really can’t believe Guerrero is plus money to score.

Toronto’s $500 million man lived up to the hype against the New York Yankees in the ALDS. He posted a .529/.550/.1.059 slash line through four games, belting three home runs and scoring five runs.

Seattle will probably want to pitch around Guerrero, which is fine, because a walk will put us in a great position here.

But if the Mariners try to pitch to him, even better.

Behind Guerrero is a red-hot lineup featuring names like Nathan Lukes, Daulton Varsho and Ernie Clement swinging the bat well.

Bo Bichette also might get the start, which is intriguing.

Santander over 1.5 bases (+170): If Bichette starts, Santander may start the game on the bench. So keep an eye on that leading up to game time.

But if the power-hitting outfielder plays, I expect fireworks.

Santander had just two singles in the ALDS, but put together some quality at-bats, signifying to me that he’s seeing the ball well.

He’s seeing 4.23 pitches per at-bat this season, which is second among Jays players on the ALCS roster.

Santander has also had Miller’s number, going 4-for-10 against the righty with a home run. He has a stellar .835 xSLG in those at-bats.

Mariners vs. Blue Jays best bets as of 1:15 p.m. on 10/11/2025.

Cubs vs. Brewers Game 5 NLDS SGP predictions: Back Yelich, Chourio to contribute in +380 wager

Cubs vs. Brewers predictions

There’s another winner-take-all Game 5 on Saturday, but this time it’s for the final spot in the NLCS.

The pregame narrative: The Milwaukee Brewers won the first two games before handing them back to the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. The series heads back to Milwaukee with the winner advancing to face the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Check out my Cubs vs. Brewers predictions for Oct. 11, featuring prop bets on Seiya Suzuki, Jackson Chourio and Christian Yelich.

Cubs vs. Brewers predictions

Parlay: Brewers moneyline | Suzuki over 0.5 hits | Chourio over 0.5 hits | Yelich over 0.5 hits (+380)

Brewers moneyline (-141): The home team has won every game in this series, and I’ll stick with that trend.

  • The Brewers tied the Los Angeles Dodgers for the third-most home wins during the regular season (52).
  • Milwaukee crushed the Cubs at home in Games 1 and 2, scoring 7+ runs in both games and holding a +10 run differential.

At the time of writing, it is unclear who the starting pitchers will be for both teams, but it has been strongly suggested that the Brewers and Cubs will use whoever is available to get 27 outs.

And if that’s the case, I have to side with Milwaukee’s pitching. The Brewers had the second-best team ERA in MLB (3.59).

The Cubs have too many things working against them. They were a subpar road team (42-39) that struggled to beat teams with a better than .500 record (38-46 in those games).

Embed: #119126

MLB SGP legs

Suzuki over 0.5 hits (-157): Suzuki has been a consistent force in the Cubs’ offence.

  • He is 6-1 against this wager in the postseason.
  • The slugger had a 95th percentile barrel rate (16.6%) and a 93rd percentile chase rate (20.5%) during the regular season, per Baseball Savant.
  • Suzuki also had much better splits on the road. He hit .267 away from home and .224 at home this season.

The goal here was to find someone on the Cubs who can trot into American Family Field and feel comfortable in the batter’s box.

And I believe Suzuki is that guy. He has a good eye for the strike zone and should put the ball in play on multiple occasions.

Chourio over 0.5 hit (-275) + Yelich over 0.5 hit (-265): The last part of my SGP focuses on the No. 1 and 2 hitters on the Brewers.

The most obvious advantage of hitting early in the order is receiving the most at-bats in the lineup, which results in more chances to cash this wager.

And that’s exactly what these two have been doing.

  • Chourio: .467 postseason average (seven hits in 15 plate appearances) with at least a hit in all four games.
  • Yelich: .333 postseason average (five hits in 15 at-bats) with three walks. 3-1 on this wager.

When the Cubs shut down the Brewers in Game 4, 6-0, Chourio and Yelich accounted for three of the seven base runners Milwaukee produced over the nine innings.

Yelich had two walks, which doesn’t help this wager but still demonstrates how well he is seeing the ball right now.

If the Brewers win like I predict them to, I can’t see it happening without contributions from two of their top hitters.

Cubs vs. Brewers predictions as of 2:45 p.m. on 10/09/2025.

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