The Toronto Blue Jays have forced a Game 7 on home turf, setting up an opportunity to clinch a World Series berth on Monday night.
The pregame narrative: Toronto dug out of an early two-game deficit against the Seattle Mariners, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. helping lead the charge on offence. Guerrero went 2-for-4 with a laser of a home run in Game 6, continuing his statistical rampage through the playoffs.
Check out my Mariners vs. Blue Jays picks for Oct. 20, featuring predictions on Guerrero, Shane Bieber and J.P. Crawford.
It’s been a magical postseason ride for the Blue Jays, and right in the middle of it all is their $500-million superstar.
From a power perspective, Guerrero’s 2025 regular season was a disappointment to many. But he has been an absolute wrecking ball in the playoffs.
Through 10 postseason games, Guerrero has 11 runs and a .462/.532/1.000 slash line.
Guerrero has driven himself in six times with home runs, including HRs in three of the past four ALCS games.
Is a .462 batting average sustainable over a large sample? No, but we’re not here to project anything further out than tonight.
And Guerrero’s .408 xBA in the postseason, as gauged by Baseball Savant, tells me he’s not lucking into much of this production. The all-star first baseman also reached base 24 times while only striking out twice.
The last time Guerrero dug in against Mariners starter George Kirby, he went 3-for-3 with a single, double and home run.
Kirby coughed up eight earned runs over 4.0 innings, and Guerrero had two of them.
It’d be tough to be more locked in than Vladdy is right now, and this is a matchup he has thrived in already in this series. Backing him to score at near-even money is something I’ll do gladly.
Key stat: Since Game 3 of the ALCS, Guerrero has scored six runs while reaching base in 12 of 18 plate appearances.
MLB prop picks
Bieber over 4.5 Ks (-138): How quick will the hook be from Jays manager John Schneider tonight?
That’s the key question when looking at Bieber’s strikeouts line. Because in a vacuum, this is at least one strikeout below what I’d typically expect the former Cy Young winner to see.
Last night, rookie Trey Yesavage had enough rope from Schneider to throw 87 pitches over 5.2 innings — facing multiple bases-loaded situations along the way. Yesavage struck out seven.
Bieber, who has worked into the sixth inning or later in seven of nine starts this year (playoffs and regular season) should be afforded a similar opportunity.
Last time out, Bieber fanned eight Mariners over 6.0 innings. He garnered a 37.8% whiff rate, per Baseball Savant, which is far above MLB average (25.3%).
Crawford over 0.5 hits (-150): Crawford has surprisingly good numbers against Bieber, and that has me interested in taking a flier on his bat in the bottom-third of the lineup.
Crawford is 7-for-14 vs. Bieber. All of the hits were singles, but that’s perfectly fine for this prop.
In the postseason, Crawford is 6-5 vs. this prop. He only has a .189 average (7-for-37), but his .269 xBA, per Baseball Savant, suggests the contact quality has been solid.
Crawford is hitless in his past three games, though he’s reached safely with three walks in that span.
I expect him to put the ball in play against Bieber, whose 4.4% walk rate is among the lowest in the majors (for context, league average is 8.4%).
Blue Jays vs. Mariners picks made at 9:55 a.m. on 10/20/2025.
The Toronto Blue Jays have forced a Game 7 on home turf, setting up an opportunity to clinch a World Series berth on Monday night.
The pregame narrative: Toronto dug out of an early two-game deficit against the Seattle Mariners, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. helping lead the charge on offence. Guerrero went 2-for-4 with a laser of a home run in Game 6, continuing his statistical rampage through the playoffs.
Check out my Mariners vs. Blue Jays picks for Oct. 20, featuring predictions on Guerrero, Shane Bieber and J.P. Crawford.
It’s been a magical postseason ride for the Blue Jays, and right in the middle of it all is their $500-million superstar.
From a power perspective, Guerrero’s 2025 regular season was a disappointment to many. But he has been an absolute wrecking ball in the playoffs.
Through 10 postseason games, Guerrero has 11 runs and a .462/.532/1.000 slash line.
Guerrero has driven himself in six times with home runs, including HRs in three of the past four ALCS games.
Is a .462 batting average sustainable over a large sample? No, but we’re not here to project anything further out than tonight.
And Guerrero’s .408 xBA in the postseason, as gauged by Baseball Savant, tells me he’s not lucking into much of this production. The all-star first baseman also reached base 24 times while only striking out twice.
The last time Guerrero dug in against Mariners starter George Kirby, he went 3-for-3 with a single, double and home run.
Kirby coughed up eight earned runs over 4.0 innings, and Guerrero had two of them.
It’d be tough to be more locked in than Vladdy is right now, and this is a matchup he has thrived in already in this series. Backing him to score at even money is something I’ll do gladly.
Key stat: Since Game 3 of the ALCS, Guerrero has scored six runs while reaching base in 12 of 18 plate appearances.
Bieber over 4.5 Ks (-132): How quick will the hook be from Jays manager John Schneider tonight?
That’s the key question when looking at Bieber’s strikeouts line. Because in a vacuum, this is at least one strikeout below what I’d typically expect the former Cy Young winner to see.
Last night, rookie Trey Yesavage had enough rope from Schneider to throw 87 pitches over 5.2 innings — facing multiple bases-loaded situations along the way. Yesavage struck out seven.
Bieber, who has worked into the sixth inning or later in seven of nine starts this year (playoffs and regular season) should be afforded a similar opportunity.
Last time out, Bieber fanned eight Mariners over 6.0 innings. He garnered a 37.8% whiff rate, per Baseball Savant, which is far above MLB average (25.3%).
Crawford over 0.5 hits (-139): Crawford has surprisingly good numbers against Bieber, and that has me interested in taking a flier on his bat in the bottom-third of the lineup.
Crawford is 7-for-14 vs. Bieber. All of the hits were singles, but that’s perfectly fine for this prop.
In the postseason, Crawford is 6-5 vs. this prop. He only has a .189 average (7-for-37), but his .269 xBA, per Baseball Savant, suggests the contact quality has been solid.
Crawford is hitless in his past three games, though he’s reached safely with three walks in that span.
I expect him to put the ball in play against Bieber, whose 4.4% walk rate is among the lowest in the majors (for context, league average is 8.4%).
Mariners vs. Blue Jays picks made at 9:35 a.m. on 10/20/2025.
The baseball betting market is huge in Ontario, which is home to Canada’s lone MLB team. In the slower summer months, knowing how to bet on MLB opens up greater wagering opportunities.
From game outcomes and totals, to futures and player props, there are many MLB betting markets to try.
For those new to betting or in need of a refresher, this how to bet on MLB guide will run you through the markets that baseball-loving bettors like to wager on.
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How to bet on MLB
Moneyline
Moneyline wagers are popular across all major North American sports and baseball is no exception. It’s also among the most straightforward ways to bet.
A moneyline bet consists of placing a wager on the team that you think will win a particular game. One example of a moneyline bet is picking the Blue Jays to beat the Yankees straight up.
Each team will come with its own set of odds based on its probability of winning that specific contest. The odds will ultimately determine the potential payout. The favoured team will have a minus (-) sign before its odds, while the underdog will have a plus (+) sign.
Of course, team success plays a major role in determining which team is assigned as the favourite. Other factors include which team is home and the health of the roster. Missing key players will have an impact on the odds.
-> Before you get started, create your NorthStar Bet account to explore live odds and daily MLB markets
-> Before you get started, create your NorthStar Bet account to explore live odds and daily MLB markets
One of baseball’s unique elements is that starting pitchers greatly affect what the odds are set at and, as a result, which team will be the favourite or underdog. Matchups that are even will carry identical odds (typically -110 on both sides).
Let’s go back to that hypothetical Blue Jays and Yankees matchup. Here are a few examples of what the moneyline odds (in brackets) could look like depending on the starting pitching matchup.
Starters
Favourite
Underdog
Gerrit Cole vs. Jose Berrios
Yankees (-190)
Blue Jays (+165)
Luis Gil vs. Kevin Gausman
Blue Jays (-155)
Yankees (+140)
Cam Schlittler vs. Trey Yesavage
Yankees (-115)
Blue Jays (+120)
-> Want to see current MLB moneyline prices? Check the latest at NorthStar Bets
-> Want to see current MLB moneyline prices? Check the latest at NorthStar Bets
Evidently, a starting pitcher alone can severely swing the line.
A very good team with its ace on the mound playing a bottom-feeder will see even more lopsided lines. The Dodgers, for instance, were -300 favourites a number of times last season.
The following shows what your return would be depending on the odds:
-110 odds: You would have to wager $110 to win $100 -300 odds: You would have to wager $300 to win $100 +165 odds: You would have to wager $100 to win $165
Note: You will also see the moneyline referred to as ML for short.
Run line betting
The run line is like the puck line in hockey. Each sport has a version of the point spread, which is popular in football and basketball betting.
The run line provides bettors with an opportunity to pick a certain team to win, but also allows them to back a loser and attach a small spread to this bet type.
Typical run lines are set at 1.5, which is a much smaller spread than most NFL/NBA games because baseball has less scoring. Placing a wager on a team at -1.5 means it has to win by two runs or more for your bet to cash.
Taking a team at +1.5 means that it could either win or lose by one run and you would still cash your bet.
Why the run line?
The run line is popular because sometimes a moneyline bet doesn’t make a lot of sense. Let’s go back to that Yankees and Blue Jays example and focus on the Cole and Berrios matchup.
-> Want to try betting the Runline or any alternative lines? Join NorthStar Betsand explore live, moving lines.
-> Want to try betting the Runline or any alternative lines? Join NorthStar Bets and explore live, moving lines.
The Yankees often have a good chance to win with Cole, but there isn’t much value backing them to win at -190. If you like the New York to beat Toronto, you might also like New York to win by multiple runs. And in that scenario, your odds will be considerably more lucrative.
In that scenario, you could get the Yankees -1.5 at something like +110 odds instead of -190 on the moneyline.
The run line gives bettors an opportunity to potentially get a favourite at plus-money odds or at least not pay as much juice (i.e., the cut the sportsbook takes on your bet). Alternatively, you can back an underdog on the run line and cash your bet without needing that team to win.
There are alternate run lines, too. So you could select the handicap to be 2.5 or even 3.5. You can find good value here if you expect a blowout to occur.
How to bet on MLB totals
One of the most popular bet types for baseball bettors is wagering on the total runs scored in a game. You will also see totals referred to as the over/under or O/U. All three terms mean the same thing.
Betting on the total is also straightforward. Sportsbooks, like NorthStar Bets, will put out a number of runs that the two teams have to combine to go over or under, and a bettor can wager on either option.
The majority of games typically see an over/under total of 7.5 to 10.5, with exceptions both ways.
You can bet on alternative totals as well. Going back to the Yankees versus Jays example, you might see a total of 8.5 (you would have the option to select either the over or under, with odds set around -110 to -120 for either play), but you would also have the option to choose another total.
Here’s an example of what the odds could look like for different totals if the standard O/U was set at 8.5:
7.5 total: over -165, under +145 8.5 total: over -120, under -105 9.5 total: over +130, under -155
You can also wager on team totals and place a bet on how many runs you think each individual team will score in a game. The most common team total O/Us are 4.5 or 5.5.
Player props involve betting on individual outcomes in a game. There are many options to choose from for MLB games and we will run through the most common types offered for each contest.
The starting pitcher prop market has the majority of options presented as an over/under bet type. You can wager on whether a pitcher will exceed or fall short of a certain amount of strikeouts and bet the O/U on it.
Let’s say Berrios’ strikeout total is O/U 6.5, you would have the option to choose whether he would go over or under that number. The odds would look something like this: over -135, under +115.
The same goes for how many outs a pitcher will record, how many hits they will allow, and how many earned runs surrendered. The total and odds that are set will depend greatly on the quality of the pitcher.
For position players, betting the O/U on how many total bases they will record in a game is one of the most popular props that bettors wager on. The O/U on the total bases prop is commonly set at 1.5.
-> Check out the latest player props each day at NorthStar Bets – from home run hitters to strikeouts and more.
-> Check out the latest player props each day at NorthStar Bets – from home run hitters to strikeouts and more.
Home run props are also popular and allow you to bet on whether certain players will go deep in a particular contest.
There are also prop markets for hits, RBI, runs scored and stolen bases.
There are also markets for team and game props, such as over/unders on the number of hits or homers in a game.
How to bet on MLB futures
The futures market involves betting on outcomes that will happen at a later time. This is a great way to bet if you’re willing to play the long game and find good value.
Picking the team you think will win the World Series is tough, even once the postseason starts, let alone today. But you can find tremendous value by placing a bet on a World Series winner in the offseason. This would be an example of a futures bet.
The Dodgers, the 2024 World Series winners, were around +300 to win the Fall Classic before the season began. If you placed a $100 bet on them to win when they were +300, you would have earned a solid return on investment.
There are futures markets for season-long awards as well, like the MVP, CY Young and Rookie of the Year.
If you’d bet Shohei Ohtani to win the AL MVP during his historic 2021 season, you would have been laughing after he was the unanimous choice.
The two-way phenom could be had for +2,000/+3,000 in spring training at various operators before becoming the frontrunner in the second half and seeing his odds completely go the other way and hit -2,500 at one point.
Parlays
A parlay consists of making multiple bets on a single ticket and wagering once. Every bet on that parlay must win in order for a bettor to cash their ticket.
An example of an MLB parlay looks like this:
Blue Jays ML (-120) Red Sox ML (+140) A’s vs. White Sox over 8.5 runs (-110) Ohtani over 1.5 total bases (-125)
Combined odds = +1,410. If you correctly predicted all four outcomes, you would win $1,410 (a total payout of $1,510) on a $100 bet.
Keep in mind: The more bets you add to the betslip decreases your likelihood of winning. Parlays are attractive to some because the payouts are bigger than a single-game wager.
You also have the option to make a same-game parlay bet where you could combine a moneyline, over/under, player prop, and so on. So you could make a bet where you predict the Blue Jays to win, score over 5.5 runs and for Vladdy to hit a home run.
Live betting is popular and provides users with options to bet on games as they play out in real time. Many of the same pre-game markets, such as the moneyline and over/under, remain available once a game is underway.
Say you took the Blue Jays at -120 odds on the moneyline to beat the Yankees before the game started and they quickly fell behind 2-0, then their odds would change.
The Blue Jays might now be +175 underdogs to win and you would have the option, during the game, to place a wager on them at that price.
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-> Experience live MLB betting as it happens – sign up with NorthStar Bets and get in on every pitch
Odds constantly change throughout the game, especially after any runs are scored. For example, those +175 odds might not be available for long if the Blue Jays get two runners on base and then hit a three-run homer to take the lead.
Markets can also close throughout the game for various reasons, so timing on when to strike is key.
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The Toronto Blue Jays’ season is on the line ahead of Sunday’s ALCS Game 6 at Rogers Centre.
The pregame narrative: An eighth-inning bullpen meltdown cost the Blue Jays Game 5, and has the Seattle Mariners one win away from the World Series. Toronto is a slight home favourite behind rookie sensation Trey Yesavage, who is pitching opposite Logan Gilbert.
Check out my Mariners vs. Blue Jays picks for Oct. 19, featuring predictions on Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Mariners vs. Blue Jays picks
Best bet: Yesavage over 4.5 Ks (-138)
Yesavage wasn’t at his best when he faced Seattle in Game 2, giving up five runs with four Ks over 4.0 IP.
But he was the victim of a few questionable calls and wasn’t getting the typical swing-and-miss we’re used to seeing from his splitter.
I’m betting Yesavage will have that punchout pitch dialled in today, because why wouldn’t he?
The righty had a 69% whiff rate with his splitter against the New York Yankees in the ALDS. In that game, he struck out 11 over 5.1 hitless innings.
In the regular season, he had a 57.1% whiff rate with his spitter. For context, Tarik Skubal’s changeup (which led MLB in run value) had a 46.8% whiff rate.
Seattle batted .200 against splitters with a 34.6% whiff rate this year.
Yesavage has been a strikeout machine at every level of the game, posting an absurd 14.7 K/9 rate in the minor leagues this year.
He made one of baseball’s best lineups look foolish in the ALDS, and I’m confident he can do that again in the biggest start of his career.
Key stat: Seattle has the seventh-highest K rate (23.6%) in MLB and is averaging 10.7 Ks per game in the postseason.
Guerrero to score (+105): Guerrero got the full Aaron Judge treatment on Friday, logging a pair of intentional walks after belting a first-inning double.
I want to back Vladdy in some capacity, and think this is the safer option than his bases total. It also carries better odds.
Toronto’s lead man has been a beast this postseason, posting a .457/.524/.971 slash line with nine runs in nine games.
He’s also had Gilbert’s number, going 6-for-17 against the righty with two home runs.
Blue Jays vs. Mariners picks made at 11:35 a.m. on 10/19/2025.
The Toronto Blue Jays’ season is on the line ahead of Sunday’s ALCS Game 6 at Rogers Centre.
The pregame narrative: An eighth-inning bullpen meltdown cost the Blue Jays Game 5, and has the Seattle Mariners one win away from the World Series. Toronto is a slight home favourite behind rookie sensation Trey Yesavage, who is pitching opposite Logan Gilbert.
Check out my Mariners vs. Blue Jays picks for Oct. 19, featuring predictions on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Nathan Lukes.
Mariners vs. Blue Jays picks
Best bet: Yesavage over 5.5 Ks (+123)
Yesavage wasn’t at his best when he faced Seattle in Game 2, giving up five runs with four Ks over 4.0 IP.
But he was the victim of a few questionable calls and wasn’t getting the typical swing-and-miss we’re used to seeing from his splitter.
I’m betting Yesavage will have that punchout pitch dialled in today, because why wouldn’t he?
The righty had a 69% whiff rate with his splitter against the New York Yankees in the ALDS. In that game, he struck out 11 over 5.1 hitless innings.
In the regular season, he had a 57.1% whiff rate with his spitter. For context, Tarik Skubal’s changeup (which led MLB in run value) had a 46.8% whiff rate.
Seattle batted .200 against splitters with a 34.6% whiff rate this year.
Yesavage has been a strikeout machine at every level of the game, posting an absurd 14.7 K/9 rate in the minor leagues this year.
He made one of baseball’s best lineups look foolish in the ALDS, and I’m confident he can do that again in the biggest start of his career.
Key stat: Seattle has the seventh-highest K rate (23.6%) in MLB and is averaging 10.7 Ks per game in the postseason.
MLB prop picks
Guerrero to score (-110): Guerrero got the full Aaron Judge treatment on Friday, logging a pair of intentional walks after belting a first-inning double.
I want to back Vladdy in some capacity, and think this is the safer option than his bases total. It also carries better odds.
Toronto’s lead man has been a beast this postseason, posting a .457/.524/.971 slash line with nine runs in nine games.
He’s also had Gilbert’s number, going 6-for-17 against the righty with two home runs.
Lukes over 1.5 bases (+175): Toronto has gotten production out of a few unlikely names this postseason, and Lukes is right atop that list.
The outfielder is batting .333 and has a hit in four straight games, going 2-2 against this line in that span.
Batting from the left side, he’ll have a platoon advantage against the right-throwing Gilbert, who has struggled on the road.
Gilbert has a 4.74 ERA away from T-Mobile Park this season. Lukes had two hits off him in Game 1.
Blue Jays vs. Mariners picks made at 11:35 a.m. on 10/19/2025.
The Toronto Blue Jays are in must-win territory as they enter Game 6 of the ALCS against the Seattle Mariners.
The pregame narrative: Manager John Schneider’s decision to put Brendon Little in to Game 5 has been heavily (and rightfully) scrutinized. But Toronto has won two of the last three games of this series, and it returns to the friendly confines of Rogers Centre.
Check out my Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions for ALCS Game 6, featuring prop bets on Trey Yesavage and Ernie Clement.
Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions
Parlay: Blue Jays ML | Yesavage over 5.5 strikeouts | Clement 1+ hits (+400)
Blue Jays ML (-129): Home-field advantage has been a real thing for Toronto this year.
No American League team won more home games than the Blue Jays this season (54). Toronto backed that up in the postseason by winning both of its games against the New York Yankees in the ALDS.
Bettors can’t ignore the fact that Seattle won both games in Toronto to start this series, but that can be viewed through two lenses:
Seattle can manage playing at Rogers Centre better than most.
An elite home team like Toronto is unlikely to lose three home games in one series.
I’m choosing to view Game 6 through the second lens.
Additionally, it’s hard to ignore Seattle starter Logan Gilbert’s noteworthy home-road splits:
Location
ERA
Opponent BA
OPS
Home
2.24
.158
.512
Road
4.74
.261
.767
Gilbert is a significantly better pitcher at T-Mobile Park than he is anywhere else.
Yesavage over 5.5 strikeouts (+128): There’s definitely some risk associated with this prop, but I’m happy to back it at this price.
Let’s get the obvious out of the way. In a must-win game, the Blue Jays will not waste time going to the bullpen if Yesavage struggles.
It’s also concerning that the young pitcher didn’t perform in his lone start of this series. The Mariners chased Yesavage off the mound after just four innings as he allowed five runs during that stretch.
But the larger body of work suggests Yesavage will bounce back.
He was stellar in his first postseason start, hurling 5.1 innings of no-run ball with 11 strikeouts against the Yankees.
He was excellent in his three regular-season outings, posting a 3.21 ERA and 2.35 FIP across 14 innings.
This prop is boosted by the fact that Seattle leads the postseason in strikeouts (107), averaging 10.7 per contest.
Clement 1+ hits (-182): Lastly, I’m expecting Clement to do what he’s done all postseason long.
This guy has been a consistent bat for the Blue Jays. He’s second on the team in hits (15) and boasts an otherworldly .429 average in October.
Clement has cashed this prop in seven of nine games during the playoffs (77.7%), a much higher rate than the implied odds suggest (64.5%).
What also helps this wager is that if Clement is going to get on base, it’s almost certainly going to be with his bat. He has yet to produce a walk this postseason.
Clement scored a hit off Gilbert in Game 2.
Mariners vs. Blue Jayspredictions as of 9:44 a.m. on 10/19/2025.
Needing a win to extend their season, the Toronto Blue Jays return to Rogers Centre for ALCS Game 6.
The pregame narrative: A five-run eighth inning lifted the Seattle Mariners to victory last time out. For Sunday’s Game 6 matchup, the Jays look to reignite their lethal offence as slight home favourites.
Check out my Mariners vs. Blue Jays best bet for ALCS Game 6 on Oct. 19 in Toronto.
Mariners vs. Blue Jays best bet
Best bet: Over 7.5 runs (-110)
Playoff baseball tends to have fewer runs, but that hasn’t really run true in this series.
After a 3-1 final in ALCS Game 1, in which Toronto hit a leadoff homer and proceeded to bat 1-for-28, the scoring floodgates have opened. Games 2-5 have all gone over 7.5 runs.
For the series, the average total is 10.4 runs.
Overs are 9-1 in the past 10 matchups between these teams (dating back to April).
Trey Yesavage will start for Toronto, with Logan Gilbert likely taking the mound for the Mariners (though that wasn’t confirmed at the time of this writing).
In Game 2 at Rogers Centre, Yesavage was tagged for five runs on four hits and three walks over 4.0 innings.
Gilbert allowed three runs on five hits and a walk over 3.0 innings.
Keep that in mind: Last time out, these pitchers allowed enough runs in half a game to cash this over.
At this point in the series, both teams have seen plenty of the opposing bullpens. A combined 13 relievers have pitched at least twice in the ALCS.
All of that familiarity should favour the hitters.
Another note working in favour of the over is that George Springer, who exited Game 5 with a knee contusion, is expected to return to the lineup on Sunday.
Springer is one of seven Blue Jays with a wRC+ north of 120 in the postseason.
Between Toronto’s ultra-deep lineup and Seattle’s top-tier power bats (Cal Raleigh, Eugenio Suarez), it’s easy to see why this ALCS has featured so much offence.
Key stat: Toronto has MLB’s highest rate of overs this year (94-71-6, 57.0%), per Team Rankings. Seattle (94-73-5, 56.3%) ranks second.
Needing a win to extend their season, the Toronto Blue Jays return to Rogers Centre for ALCS Game 6.
The pregame narrative: A five-run eighth inning lifted the Seattle Mariners to victory last time out. For Sunday’s Game 6 matchup, the Jays look to reignite their lethal offence as slight home favourites.
Check out my Mariners vs. Blue Jays best bet for ALCS Game 6 on Oct. 19 in Toronto.
Mariners vs. Blue Jays best bet
Best bet: Over 7.5 runs (-110)
Playoff baseball tends to have fewer runs, but that hasn’t really run true in this series.
After a 3-1 final in ALCS Game 1, in which Toronto hit a leadoff homer and proceeded to bat 1-for-28, the scoring floodgates have opened. Games 2-5 have all gone over 7.5 runs.
For the series, the average total is 10.4 runs.
Overs are 9-1 in the past 10 matchups between these teams (dating back to April).
Trey Yesavage will start for Toronto, with Logan Gilbert likely taking the mound for the Mariners (though that wasn’t confirmed at the time of this writing).
In Game 2 at Rogers Centre, Yesavage was tagged for five runs on four hits and three walks over 4.0 innings.
Gilbert allowed three runs on five hits and a walk over 3.0 innings.
Keep that in mind: Last time out, these pitchers allowed enough runs in half a game to cash this over.
At this point in the series, both teams have seen plenty of the opposing bullpens. A combined 13 relievers have pitched at least twice in the ALCS.
All of that familiarity should favour the hitters.
Another note working in favour of the over is that George Springer, who exited Game 5 with a knee contusion, is expected to return to the lineup on Sunday.
Springer is one of seven Blue Jays with a wRC+ north of 120 in the postseason.
Between Toronto’s ultra-deep lineup and Seattle’s top-tier power bats (Cal Raleigh, Eugenio Suarez), it’s easy to see why this ALCS has featured so much offence.
Key stat: Toronto has MLB’s highest rate of overs this year (94-71-6, 57.0%), per Team Rankings. Seattle (94-73-5, 56.3%) ranks second.
Game 5 of the ALCS between the Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners is set for 6:08 p.m. ET on Friday at T-Mobile Park.
The pregame narrative: The winner will take a 3-2 series lead before the ALCS concludes in Toronto. Neither team has won at home yet, with blowouts in each of the last three games.
Check out my Blue Jays vs. Mariners picks for Oct. 17, featuring predictions on Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Kevin Gausman, Ernie Clement and Daulton Varsho.
Blue Jays vs. Mariners picks
Best bet: Guerrero over 1.5 total bases (+100)
It’s hard to ignore a plus-money price on Guerrero.
The Blue Jays star has been on another level during Toronto’s eight playoff games after posting a top-15 mark in wRC+ in the regular season.
.455/.500/.970
5 homers
11 RBI
9 runs scored
He has cleared this line in five of eight games and struck out only once in 38 plate appearances.
Guerrero and the Blue Jays will see Bryce Miller, who, along with Seattle’s bullpen, held the first baseman hitless in Game 1.
That said, two of the top six balls in Game 1 with the highest exit velocity were struck by Guerrero at 107-plus mph, and both off Miller.
Guerrero is consistently putting the ball in play and making loud contact.
Key stat: Guerrero leads all postseason hitters with a 290 wRC+.
Blue Jays best bets
Gausman over 15.5 outs (-130): Toronto’s No. 1 starter gets the Mariners for the second time this series.
Gausman was yanked after 76 pitches in Game 1 but delivered a strong performance:
5.2 IP
3 H, 2 R
1 BB, 5 K
It marked the second time this postseason he worked 5.2 innings, making him 2-0 vs. this line.
Blue Jays manager John Schneider is unlikely to give Gausman a ton of rope after a brilliant Game 4 performance from Max Scherzer and an offensive eruption that helped save the bullpen from any high-leverage innings.
There’s also an off day baked in before Game 6.
That said, Gausman has generally been throwing the ball exceptionally well for months, and he’s by no means an auto-yank once the top of the order comes around for the third time.
Gausman was 12-3 vs. this line over his final 15 starts of the season.
He pitched to a 2.97 ERA (3.01 FIP) over that stretch with a well-above average 25.7 K%.
MLB prop picks
Clement 1+ RBI (+250): Clement has been a hitting machine, batting .452 this postseason with multi-hit games in five contests.
He moved up in the order to sixth last night. Assuming he’s there again, I love this price.
Clement is a free swinger (he hasn’t walked this postseason but only struck out twice), so his chances of putting the ball in play are high.
Toronto has done a terrific job getting on base, meaning there’s a good shot for Clement (six postseason RBI) to hit with runners on.
Outside of the first two ALCS contests, the Blue Jays have scored five-plus runs in every postseason game.
Varsho 1+ hit (-143): Varsho has a lot of swing and miss in his game and is more of a thumper than a great hitter. But he’s batting .281 this postseason with a hit in half of his contests.
His defence is great, so he’s at little risk of a substitution, meaning we’re probably looking at four-plus plate appearances.
For those thinking about matchups later: While Varsho does struggle to hit left-handed pitching, Seattle’s top southpaw Gabe Speier threw 32 pitches over 1.1 high-stress innings last night.
Speier was the one who walked Varsho in an eight-pitch battle.
Blue Jays vs. Mariners picks made at 11:35 a.m. on 10/17/2025.
Shohei Ohtani will be on the mound Friday night with an opportunity to send the Los Angeles Dodgers back to the World Series.
The pregame narrative: The reigning champions have a 3-0 series lead over the top-seeded Brewers and are favoured to finish the job at home. Ohtani has been spectacular on the mound this year, but his offensive production typically declines when he’s working in a two-way capacity.
Check out my Brewers vs. Dodgers prop picks for NLDS Game 4, featuring predictions on Ohtani and Brice Turang.
Dodgers vs. Brewers picks
Best bet: Turang under 0.5 hits (+105)
Turang took a big step offensively this season, posting a .288/.359/.435 slash line for the Brewers as part of a 5.5 bWAR campaign.
The reigning NL Platinum Glove winner (i.e., voted as the best of all Gold Glove recipients) seems to have a promising career ahead. But it’s been a rough postseason for the 25-year-old, and Ohtani likely won’t make things any easier.
After a two-hit game in the NLDS opener, Turang is just 2-for-27 (.074) with 10 strikeouts.
All in all, Turang gone under 0.5 hits in five of eight playoff games.
Ohtani has allowed just 13 hits and four runs over his past 25.2 innings.
Ohtani does his best work at home, and he’s also better against left-hitting batters. More bad news for Turang.
In seven starts at Dodger Stadium this year, Ohtani has a 1.71 ERA, a 12.9 K/9 and a .151 opponent batting average.
Against LHBs this year, Ohtani has a 38.6% K rate and a .179 opponent BA. Disgusting stuff.
Key stat: Based on Baseball Savant’s metrics, Turang has largely earned his woeful playoff production. He has a .125 BA and a .171 xBA — along with an unsightly 39.4% K rate.
Ohtani under 1.5 total bases (-134): Ohtani tripled in the first inning of NLCS Game 3, so I’m glad I didn’t make this pick yesterday.
I’m willing to fly in the face of the NL-MVP-to-be, though, due to the fact that he’s pitching Friday night. His offensive numbers tend to take a dive when he’s on the mound.
Ohtani has made 10 starts as a pitcher since the all-star break. In that span, he is 7-for-38 (.184) at the plate with 17 strikeouts.
On Oct. 4, in his first (and so far only) career postseason outing as a pitcher, Ohtani went 0-for-4 with four Ks and a walk.
Without knowing the Brewers’ exact pitching plans, it’s difficult to dive too deeply into the matchups Ohtani will see tonight.
But he’s struggled as a hitter throughout the postseason so far, so I’m comfortable plugging my nose and predicting this under.
Ohtani has a .158/.273/.368 slash line in nine playoff games and has cashed this under seven times.
Brewers vs. Dodgers picks made at 2:13 p.m. on 10/17/2025.
