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Best MLB prop bets Sept. 9: Back Mookie Betts and Daulton Varsho, fade German Marquez and Spencer Strider

For the second consecutive day, Los Angeles Dodgers star Mookie Betts headlines Tuesday’s top MLB prop picks.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Betts is hot and has a juicy matchup against Colorado Rockies righty German Marquez, who also finds himself in today’s recommendations.

Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Sept. 9, featuring predictions on Daulton Varsho and Spencer Strider.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Betts over 1.5 total bases (-105)

Los Angeles was quiet last night (three runs, four hits) against righty Chase Dollander and the Rockies’ bullpen, but that’s no reason to shy away from Tuesday’s matchup.

Marquez has a 6.19 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in 22 starts.

He’s predictably been awful at home (6.45 ERA, .321 opponents’ batting average), but has been nearly as bad on the road (5.95, .315).

Marquez has been crushed by both lefty (.532 slugging) and righty hitters (.521).

Colorado’s bullpen has by far the worst ERA (6.02) in the majors, and it’s been even worse in the second half.

As for Betts, he’s enjoying his best stretch of the season.

The eight-time all-star is batting .328 and slugging .504 over his last 30 games.

He’s seen Marquez a good amount, batting .308 in 29 career plate appearances.

Key stat: Betts has topped this line 18 times over his 30-game heater.

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Best MLB picks

Varsho 1+ RBI (+170): The Toronto Blue Jays see Houston Astros righty Luis Garcia, who threw well in his season debut and is making his second start of the year.

I’m going to keep the focus here on Varsho, who’s hitting the ball with authority and punishing right-handers.

Varsho has an incredible 18 homers in 150 at-bats vs. righties, slugging a robust .693.

Batting primarily out of the No. 5 spot for MLB’s No. 2 team in second-half wRC+, Varsho has 47 RBI in 54 games.

Varsho has started September on a tear, hitting three homers with a 1.210 OPS.

Looking for more Astros vs. Blue Jays recommendations? See Jordan Horrobin’s best Blue Jays picks.

Best MLB pitching props

Marquez under 3.5 strikeouts (-117): There’s big blowup potential against the Dodgers, who returned Max Muncy last night and are supposed to have Will Smith back in the lineup today.

Add that pair to Betts, Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Teoscar Hernandez, and this lineup is a nightmare for even the best of pitchers.

Marquez is averaging under five innings per start and has one of the lowest strikeout rates among starters.

Only six of 116 pitchers who have thrown 100-plus innings have a lower K% than Marquez.

The Rockies veteran has gone under this light line in 14 of 22 starts.

Strider under 17.5 outs (-130): The Atlanta Braves’ power arm hasn’t been right in his comeback season from Tommy John.

Strider has shown flashes but has been far too inconsistent, and his fastball velocity has diminished considerably. So has his K rate (24.2% compared to 36%+ in 2022/23).

His first start out of the all-star break was a gem, continuing a strong finish to the first half. But it’s been downhill since then.

Strider has a 7.75 ERA (7.09 FIP) over his last seven starts.

He has allowed 10 homers over those outings, striking out just 24 in 33.2 innings.

While the lack of Ks can theoretically allow him to work deeper by keeping his pitch count down, it simply hasn’t mattered. He’s 1-6 vs. this line since July 23.

Strider has been hit harder than ever before and is coming off a five-inning start vs. the same Chicago Cubs he’ll see tonight.

His line last time out: 5.0 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 1 K.

MLB prop picks made at 12:05 p.m. ET on 09/09/2025.

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MLB home run picks Sept. 9: Bet on Kerry Carpenter, Rafael Devers to go deep

Kerry Carpenter and Rafael Devers headline Tuesday’s MLB home run picks.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Both players will have a platoon advantage tonight, with Carpenter going up against Will Warren at Yankee Stadium. Devers, meanwhile, has finally found a groove after a horrible start to his Giants tenure.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Sept. 9.

MLB home run picks

Best Bet: Carpenter to hit a home run (+325)

Carpenter is an ideal man to target when the time and price are right.

The outfielder rocks right-handed pitching, rarely takes walks, and now gets to play in one of the most hitter-friendly venues in baseball.

Carpenter is slugging .529 vs. RHPs this season.

He ranks in the 75th percentile or higher in xSLG, barrel rate, hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, per Baseball Savant.

Carpenter’s 3.9% walk rate ranks in the second percentile and should offset Warren’s wild nature.

Yankee Stadium has allowed 20% more HRs than average to left-hitting batters over the last three seasons, according to Baseball Savant’s Park factors.

Warren is having a decent sophomore season, walk issues aside, and has posted a 2.97 ERA in five starts since Aug. 1.

But he’s given up five home runs in those outings with a .285 xBA and a 54% hard-hit rate. Some regression is due, and I expect Carpenter to be all over him tonight.

Key stat: Warren ranks in the bottom-15th percentile in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate.

Best HR predictions

Devers to hit a home run (+350): The San Francisco Giants have needed Devers at his best for their playoff push, and so far, he’s delivered.

San Fran is 12-3 in its last 15 games. In that span, Devers is slashing .333/.424/.684 with six home runs.

And since Aug. 1, he is slashing .283/.373/.583 with 12 home runs.

Tonight, Devers gets to go up against Zac Gallen and the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Gallen is easily having the worst season of his career, despite logging four straight quality starts. He has posted career lows in ERA (4.77), WHIP (1.28), K/9 (8.3), and HR/9 (1.4).

Lefties are slugging .445 off of Gallen, and Devers is slugging .514 off of righties.

MLB home run picks made at 10:27 a.m. ET on 09/09/2025.

Astros vs. Blue Jays best bets Sept. 9: Back Toronto as a run line favourite in series opener

A battle between American League division leaders begins on Tuesday, as the Toronto Blue Jays host the Houston Astros.

The pregame narrative: Houston is just 3-6 in its past nine games and now faces a Toronto team that has dominated at home (45-24). Luis Garcia will make his second start of the year for the Astros, while the Blue Jays are turning to a rested Shane Bieber.

Check out my Blue Jays best bets vs. the Astros for Sept. 9, including props on George Springer and Jeremy Pena.

Blue Jays best bets vs. Astros

Best bet: Blue Jays -1.5 (+130)

The Astros swept the Blue Jays when they last met in April. But that might as well have been light-years ago.

Take a look at how these teams have performed since the all-star break, and you’ll see a much different story:

Team	Record	Run Differential	wRC+	ERA
Blue Jays	27-20	+48	134	4.34
Astros	22-26	-37	92	4.42

The offensive discrepancy is what really stands out. Toronto has had the strongest lineup in the second half, while Houston isn’t even swinging it at a league-average rate.

Toronto has had two off-days in the past week, which allowed the club to line up its rotation how it wanted. Bieber is expected to start Tuesday on an extra day of rest, which has been a great thing for him in his career.

Four days’ rest (69 starts): 3.39 ERA, .667 opponent OPS

Five days’ rest (48 starts): 2.64 ERA, .612 opponent OPS

Bieber had one messy inning last time out, but his first three starts with Toronto have been very strong overall. He has a 2.74 FIP and a 21:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

The Blue Jays are 2-1 vs. a -1.5 run line in those starts, too.

Each of the Astros’ past six losses has come by multiple runs. I like Bieber and the Blue Jays to add to that string.

Key stat: Toronto has the second-best run line record in MLB (82-61, 57.3%), per Team Rankings.

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Jays prop picks

Pena over 0.5 runs (+114): Although I like Toronto’s chances to secure a win by margin, this plus-money price on Houston’s leadoff man was too good to ignore.

Pena is enjoying a breakout season, with 20 steals and an .833 OPS, which led to his first all-star appearance.

He hasn’t faced Bieber yet, but the Astros’ lineup collectively has some strong numbers against the right-hander: 14-for-46 (.304) with an .882 OPS.

Pena’s speed is an asset here, as is his relatively low strikeout rate (17.5%, 72nd percentile). I don’t expect the Astros to drum up a ton of offence, but Pena is in the best position to score.

Springer over 1.5 total bases (-106): How can you not buy in on Springer’s second-half surge?

The veteran has a .377/.472/.689 slash line in 31 games since the all-star break. He is 19-12 vs. this prop in that span.

Springer ranks in the 94th percentile or better in barrel rate, xBA and xSLG, per Baseball Savant. His 160 wRC+ this season is behind only the league’s two MVP frontrunners, Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge.

It’s incredible work for the 35-year-old, and it means a price like this is totally playable.

Especially when you consider that Springer is 3-for-7 with two home runs and a double vs. Garcia.

Blue Jays best bets made at 8:49 a.m. ET on 09/09/2025.

MLB home run picks Sept. 9: Bet on Kerry Carpenter, Rafael Devers to go deep

Kerry Carpenter and Rafael Devers headline Tuesday’s MLB home run picks.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Both players will have a platoon advantage tonight, with Carpenter going up against Will Warren at Yankee Stadium. Devers, meanwhile, has finally found a groove after a horrible start to his Giants tenure.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Sept. 9.

MLB home run picks

Best Bet: Carpenter to hit a home run (+440)

Carpenter is an ideal man to target when the time and price are right.

The outfielder rocks right-handed pitching, rarely takes walks, and now gets to play in one of the most hitter-friendly venues in baseball.

Carpenter is slugging .529 vs. RHPs this season.

He ranks in the 75th percentile or higher in xSLG, barrel rate, hard-hit rate and average exit velocity, per Baseball Savant.

Carpenter’s 3.9% walk rate ranks in the second percentile and should offset Warren’s wild nature.

Yankee Stadium has allowed 20% more HRs than average to left-hitting batters over the last three seasons, according to Baseball Savant’s Park factors.

Warren is having a decent sophomore season, walk issues aside, and has posted a 2.97 ERA in five starts since Aug. 1.

But he’s given up five home runs in those outings with a .285 xBA and a 54% hard-hit rate. Some regression is due, and I expect Carpenter to be all over him tonight.

Key stat: Warren ranks in the bottom-15th percentile in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate.

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Best HR predictions

Devers to hit a home run (+440): The San Francisco Giants have needed Devers at his best for their playoff push, and so far, he’s delivered.

San Fran is 12-3 in its last 15 games. In that span, Devers is slashing .333/.424/.684 with six home runs.

And since Aug. 1, he is slashing .283/.373/.583 with 12 home runs.

Tonight, Devers gets to go up against Zac Gallen and the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Gallen is easily having the worst season of his career, despite logging four straight quality starts. He has posted career lows in ERA (4.77), WHIP (1.28), K/9 (8.3), and HR/9 (1.4).

Lefties are slugging .445 off of Gallen, and Devers is slugging .514 off of righties.

MLB home run picks made at 10:27 a.m. ET on 09/09/2025.

Astros vs. Blue Jays series betting preview Sept. 9-11: Probable pitchers, ATS analysis and player trends

A series with major playoff seeding implications begins in Toronto on Tuesday night, as the Blue Jays host the Houston Astros at Rogers Centre.

Toronto (82-61) still stands atop the American League, but Houston (78-66) can gain ground in this three-game set. The Astros, who hold the No. 3 seed and are currently on track to miss out on a bye, swept the Jays at home in April.

Check out our Astros vs. Blue Jays preview for the Sept. 9-11 series, highlighting the starting pitching matchups, betting trends and more.

Astros vs. Blue Jays preview

A lot has changed since these teams last met up on the field.

Back in late April, Toronto went 0-3 in Houston as part of an extended slide. In a five-week span, the Jays went 14-20 and fell to 8.0 games back in the AL East (as of May 27).

Now, Toronto is the frontrunner in its division and in the league as a whole.

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Houston has been playing sub-.500 ball since the start of August, but a wild-card bye is still in play — especially if this series goes well for the visiting Astros. Houston only needs to win once in Toronto this week to have the head-to-head tiebreaker, too, which could matter later on.

Hitting hasn’t been a problem for the Jays. They’re slugging .491 in the second half, which easily paces the majors.

It’s the bullpen, which has the fourth-highest ERA since the all-star break (5.38), that has caused problems down the stretch. Fatigue cannot be an excuse at this point, though, given that Toronto was off Thursday and Monday.

Starting pitcher matchups

Sept. 9: RHP Luis Garcia (1-0, 4.50 ERA) vs. RHP Shane Bieber (2-1, 4.15 ERA)

After a 28-month hiatus as he rehabbed and recovered from Tommy John surgery, Garcia returned to the mound for the Astros last Monday. He struck out six and posted a quality start in a winning effort. Garcia has a healthy 25.6% K rate vs. the Blue Jays’ active lineup, with 21 Ks in 82 plate appearances.

One nightmarish inning ruined Bieber’s stat line last time out, but his stuff has been very sharp overall through three starts with Toronto. Through 17.1 innings, Bieber has 21 strikeouts and just two walks, as well as a 56.1% ground-ball rate (league average is 42.3%).

Sept. 10: RHP Jason Alexander (4-1, 4.68 ERA) vs. RHP Jose Berrios (9-5, 4.02 ERA)

Alexander has allowed six homers in his past four starts. He ranks in the bottom-20th percentile in xERA, xBA, chase rate and hard-hit rate, per Baseball Savant.

Berrios has solid numbers in a large sample against the Astros’ active lineup, holding them to a .229 BA and a .376 SLG in 109 at-bats. Toronto is 19-9 in his starts this year, even though his 108 ERA+ is only scraping above league average.

Sept. 11: RHP Cristian Javier (1-2, 4.43 ERA) vs. RHP Kevin Gausman (9-10, 3.63 ERA)

Thursday marks Javier’s second road start of the season, and the first one was a mess (2.0 IP, three hits, four walks, five runs). In his career, Javier has a 2.81 ERA at home and a 4.56 ERA on the road.

Gausman was on the wrong end of a 7-0 loss to the Astros in April, but he has largely dominated Houston over the years. In 107 at-bats against the active lineup, Gausman has held the club to a .168 BA and a .290 SLG while posting a 42.0% K rate.

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Who’s hot and who’s not

George Springer (DH/OF): Springer started the year as a heart-of-the-order bat, but he’s back where he belongs in Toronto’s leadoff spot. Since coming off the injured list in mid-August, Springer has a .346/.446/.731 slash line in 20 games. He’s 15-5 vs. his run prop in that span while averaging 2.9 total bases per game.

Addison Barger (OF): With three right-handed pitchers on the docket for Houston this week, the left-hitting Barger should see plenty of opportunities to bust out of his four-week slump. Since Aug. 12, Barger is 12-for-73 (.164) with just three extra-base hits and 18 strikeouts.

Yordan Alvarez (DH/OF): A hand injury kept Alvarez out for the better part of four months, but he’s come back in a major way for Houston. In 12 games since returning, Alvarez has three HRs and a 1.229 OPS. He has multiple hits in four of his past six.

Jose Altuve (2B): Altuve is batting .162 with a sub-.300 SLG in his past 25 games. And he’s hitless in 14 of those. Interestingly, the veteran infielder is pretty much the only Astro with encouraging numbers against Gausman (5-for-14, one HR, two doubles).

Astros vs. Blue Jays preview: Betting trends

Toronto has the 2nd-best run line record in MLB (84-60, 58.3%).

The Astros have the 6th-worst run line record overall (67-77, 46.5%) … but their run line record on the road is much better (38-31, 55.1%).

Overs are 80-57-6 in Blue Jays games (1st in MLB).

In the Jays’ past nine home games, overs are 8-1.

Unders went 3-0 in the Astros/Blue Jays series in April. The teams combined to score just 17 total runs (5.7 runs/game).

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has 2+ hits in five straight games.

Bo Bichette has gone over 1.5 total bases in 11 of his past 15 games.

Astros vs. Blue Jays series betting preview Sept. 9-11: Probable pitchers, ATS analysis and player trends

A series with major playoff seeding implications begins in Toronto on Tuesday night, as the Blue Jays host the Houston Astros at Rogers Centre.

Toronto (82-61) still stands atop the American League, but Houston (78-66) can gain ground in this three-game set. The Astros, who hold the No. 3 seed and are currently on track to miss out on a bye, swept the Jays at home in April.

Check out our Astros vs. Blue Jays preview for the Sept. 9-11 series, highlighting the starting pitching matchups, betting trends and more.

Astros vs. Blue Jays preview

A lot has changed since these teams last met up on the field.

Back in late April, Toronto went 0-3 in Houston as part of an extended slide. In a five-week span, the Jays went 14-20 and fell to 8.0 games back in the AL East (as of May 27).

Now, Toronto is the frontrunner in its division and in the league as a whole.

Houston has been playing sub-.500 ball since the start of August, but a wild-card bye is still in play — especially if this series goes well for the visiting Astros. Houston only needs to win once in Toronto this week to have the head-to-head tiebreaker, too, which could matter later on.

Hitting hasn’t been a problem for the Jays. They’re slugging .491 in the second half, which easily paces the majors.

It’s the bullpen, which has the fourth-highest ERA since the all-star break (5.38), that has caused problems down the stretch. Fatigue cannot be an excuse at this point, though, given that Toronto was off Thursday and Monday.

Starting pitcher matchups

Sept. 9: RHP Luis Garcia (1-0, 4.50 ERA) vs. RHP Shane Bieber (2-1, 4.15 ERA)

After a 28-month hiatus as he rehabbed and recovered from Tommy John surgery, Garcia returned to the mound for the Astros last Monday. He struck out six and posted a quality start in a winning effort. Garcia has a healthy 25.6% K rate vs. the Blue Jays’ active lineup, with 21 Ks in 82 plate appearances.

One nightmarish inning ruined Bieber’s stat line last time out, but his stuff has been very sharp overall through three starts with Toronto. Through 17.1 innings, Bieber has 21 strikeouts and just two walks, as well as a 56.1% ground-ball rate (league average is 42.3%).

Sept. 10: RHP Jason Alexander (4-1, 4.68 ERA) vs. RHP Jose Berrios (9-5, 4.02 ERA)

Alexander has allowed six homers in his past four starts. He ranks in the bottom-20th percentile in xERA, xBA, chase rate and hard-hit rate, per Baseball Savant.

Berrios has solid numbers in a large sample against the Astros’ active lineup, holding them to a .229 BA and a .376 SLG in 109 at-bats. Toronto is 19-9 in his starts this year, even though his 108 ERA+ is only scraping above league average.

Sept. 11: RHP Cristian Javier (1-2, 4.43 ERA) vs. RHP Kevin Gausman (9-10, 3.63 ERA)

Thursday marks Javier’s second road start of the season, and the first one was a mess (2.0 IP, three hits, four walks, five runs). In his career, Javier has a 2.81 ERA at home and a 4.56 ERA on the road.

Gausman was on the wrong end of a 7-0 loss to the Astros in April, but he has largely dominated Houston over the years. In 107 at-bats against the active lineup, Gausman has held the club to a .168 BA and a .290 SLG while posting a 42.0% K rate.

Who’s hot and who’s not

George Springer (DH/OF): Springer started the year as a heart-of-the-order bat, but he’s back where he belongs in Toronto’s leadoff spot. Since coming off the injured list in mid-August, Springer has a .346/.446/.731 slash line in 20 games. He’s 15-5 vs. his run prop in that span while averaging 2.9 total bases per game.

Addison Barger (OF): With three right-handed pitchers on the docket for Houston this week, the left-hitting Barger should see plenty of opportunities to bust out of his four-week slump. Since Aug. 12, Barger is 12-for-73 (.164) with just three extra-base hits and 18 strikeouts.

Yordan Alvarez (DH/OF): A hand injury kept Alvarez out for the better part of four months, but he’s come back in a major way for Houston. In 12 games since returning, Alvarez has three HRs and a 1.229 OPS. He has multiple hits in four of his past six.

Jose Altuve (2B): Altuve is batting .162 with a sub-.300 SLG in his past 25 games. And he’s hitless in 14 of those. Interestingly, the veteran infielder is pretty much the only Astro with encouraging numbers against Gausman (5-for-14, one HR, two doubles).

Astros vs. Blue Jays preview: Betting trends

Toronto has the 2nd-best run line record in MLB (84-60, 58.3%).

The Astros have the 6th-worst run line record overall (67-77, 46.5%) … but their run line record on the road is much better (38-31, 55.1%).

Overs are 80-57-6 in Blue Jays games (1st in MLB).

In the Jays’ past nine home games, overs are 8-1.

Unders went 3-0 in the Astros/Blue Jays series in April. The teams combined to score just 17 total runs (5.7 runs/game).

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has 2+ hits in five straight games.

Bo Bichette has gone over 1.5 total bases in 11 of his past 15 games.

Best MLB prop bets Sept. 8: Back Mookie Betts, Mariners’ Julio Rodriguez and Josh Naylor

Los Angeles Dodgers star Mookie Betts headlines Monday’s top MLB prop picks.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Betts is having a down year but is currently enjoying one of his best stretches of the season. I expect him to stay hot against the weak pitching he’ll see from the Colorado Rockies tonight.

Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Sept. 8, featuring predictions on Ryan Bergert, Julio Rodriguez and Josh Naylor.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Betts over 1.5 total bases (+106)

Betts has awoken at a critical time for the Dodgers, who are clinging to a one-game lead over the San Diego Padres in the NL West.

This will go down as the worst season of Betts’ fantastic career, but he’s been hitting well for the last month and is poised to end the year in good form.

Since going 0-for-20 over a five-game stretch into early August, Betts has done this:

.330/.395/.513 in 29 games
5 of his 16 homers
Averaging 2 total bases/game

Betts is 18-11 vs. this line over that stretch and has cleared it in five of six games this month.

His Dodgers see Chase Dollander and the Colorado Rockies tonight.

The rookie Dollander has elite velocity, but his fastball has been clobbered. He’s been far better outside of his home park, Coors Field, but still enters with several below-average metrics and a 6.77 ERA.

Dollander has pitched poorly in two starts vs. Los Angeles, which will also get a crack at MLB’s worst bullpen by second-half ERA (6.02).

Key stat: Betts has a 1.011 OPS over the last 15 days.

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Best MLB picks

Bergert over 15.5 outs (+104): The right-hander has been rolling since joining the Kansas City Royals at the trade deadline.

And tonight he’ll get a weak offence at a pitcher’s park, providing good value on a light line at plus money.

Bergert has a 2.43 ERA in six starts with Kansas City, allowing two runs or fewer in every outing.

Over those six outings, he’s 5-1 against this line with a 0.99 WHIP and above-average K rate.

Bergert gets the Cleveland Guardians, who are 28th in MLB in wRC+ (29th in the second half).

Progressive Field is a friendly pitching environment that’s been unkind to the Guardians. No team has scored fewer runs at home this year than Cleveland.

Rodriguez over 1.5 total bases (+100): I’m ending today’s selections with picks on two Seattle Mariners, who see Miles Mikolas and the St. Louis Cardinals tonight.

Rodriguez has been on a tear, hitting .333/.348/.634 since the start of August.

He has 11 homers and 33 RBI, averaging 2.5 total bases per game over that stretch.

Mikolas is among the most hittable starters in the game. He rarely walks batters and has bottom-of-the-barrel whiff/K numbers.

Rodriguez is 8-3 vs. this line over his last 11 games.

Naylor 1+ RBI (+165): Left-handed batters are hitting .280 and slugging .507 off Mikolas, who gets a great pitcher’s venue tonight (T-Mobile Park) but has been terrible on the road.

Mikolas has a 6.79 ERA in 13 road starts, and opponents are hitting .327 off him.

Naylor hits for average, doesn’t strike out much, has a platoon advantage, and occupies a middle-of-the-order spot.

He’s slugging .625 to start the month. I like his chances of driving one in hitting behind bats like Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh and Randy Arozarena.

MLB prop picks made at 12:40 p.m. ET on 09/08/2025.

MLB home run picks Sept. 8: Eugenio Suarez, Juan Soto look to stay hot

Eugenio Suarez and Juan Soto are both swinging hot bats right now, and they’re the MLB home run targets I’m most excited about on Monday night.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Suarez is five homers shy of 50, while Soto is quickly approaching 40. Both players are in MLB’s top 20 in slugging percentage over the past two weeks.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Sept. 8.

MLB home run picks

Best Bet: Suarez to hit a home run (+300)

I’m loving this price for a guy who’s been among the very best home run hitters this season.

Suarez’s 45 homers are the fourth-most in MLB this season, ahead of guys like Aaron Judge and Pete Alonso.

The third baseman homered in back-to-back games over the weekend to close out the Mariners’ road trip. He also homered in back-to-back games at the end of their most recent homestand (Aug. 26-27).

The main issue when Suarez digs in at the plate is his propensity to swing and miss.

But when he’s facing a soft-tossing, low-strikeout guy — as is the case tonight — that concern largely goes away.

Miles Mikolas is on the mound for the St. Louis Cardinals tonight. He ranks in the third percentile in both whiff rate and strikeout rate, per Baseball Savant.

Suarez knows a thing or two about Mikolas, as the pair has a decent volume of head-to-head matchups on their ledger. Seattle’s slugger is 9-for-19 (.474) vs. Mikolas with four HRs and a double.

Mikolas’ home/road splits are another noteworthy factor. He loves to work inside St. Louis’ Busch Stadium, but things get quite dicey elsewhere:

Home (14 starts): 7 HRs allowed, .360 opponent SLG

Road (13 starts): 17 HRs allowed, .623 opponent SLG

Key stat: Over his past 20 games, Suarez has eight HRs and a .964 OPS.

Best HR predictions

Soto to hit a home run (+320): According to Baseball Savant’s park factors data, Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park is the most homer-friendly venue for left-handed batters over the past three seasons.

In that span, LHBs are hitting 29% more homers in Philly than the league average.

That’s a nice place to start when backing the left-hitting Soto, but it’s far from the only reason I’m buying in on Monday.

Soto has a .537 SLG and three HRs in 41 at-bats vs. Phillies starter Aaron Nola.

In his past 30 games, Soto has 13 HRs and a .308/.468/.701 slash line. He also has more hits (33) and more walks (32) than strikeouts (29) in that span.

Nola has posted a 9.96 ERA with nine HRs allowed in his past six starts.

Soto draws walks as well as anyone in the majors, but he’s also tearing the cover off the ball when hittable pitches come his way.

He ranks in either the 98th or 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, xSLG and average exit velocity.

MLB home run picks made at 9:12 a.m. ET on 09/08/2025.

MLB home run picks Sept. 8: Eugenio Suarez, Juan Soto look to stay hot

Eugenio Suarez and Juan Soto are both swinging hot bats right now, and they’re the MLB home run targets I’m most excited about on Monday night.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: Suarez is five homers shy of 50, while Soto is quickly approaching 40. Both players are in MLB’s top 20 in slugging percentage over the past two weeks.

Check out the best MLB home run picks and analysis for Sept. 8.

MLB home run picks

Best Bet: Suarez to hit a home run (+390)

I’m loving this price for a guy who’s been among the very best home run hitters this season.

Suarez’s 45 homers are the fourth-most in MLB this season, ahead of guys like Aaron Judge and Pete Alonso.

The third baseman homered in back-to-back games over the weekend to close out the Mariners’ road trip. He also homered in back-to-back games at the end of their most recent homestand (Aug. 26-27).

The main issue when Suarez digs in at the plate is his propensity to swing and miss.

But when he’s facing a soft-tossing, low-strikeout guy — as is the case tonight — that concern largely goes away.

Miles Mikolas is on the mound for the St. Louis Cardinals tonight. He ranks in the third percentile in both whiff rate and strikeout rate, per Baseball Savant.

Suarez knows a thing or two about Mikolas, as the pair has a decent volume of head-to-head matchups on their ledger. Seattle’s slugger is 9-for-19 (.474) vs. Mikolas with four HRs and a double.

Mikolas’ home/road splits are another noteworthy factor. He loves to work inside St. Louis’ Busch Stadium, but things get quite dicey elsewhere:

Home (14 starts): 7 HRs allowed, .360 opponent SLG

Road (13 starts): 17 HRs allowed, .623 opponent SLG

Key stat: Over his past 20 games, Suarez has eight HRs and a .964 OPS.

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Best HR predictions

Soto to hit a home run (+360): According to Baseball Savant’s park factors data, Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park is the most homer-friendly venue for left-handed batters over the past three seasons.

In that span, LHBs are hitting 29% more homers in Philly than the league average.

That’s a nice place to start when backing the left-hitting Soto, but it’s far from the only reason I’m buying in on Monday.

Soto has a .537 SLG and three HRs in 41 at-bats vs. Phillies starter Aaron Nola.

In his past 30 games, Soto has 13 HRs and a .308/.468/.701 slash line. He also has more hits (33) and more walks (32) than strikeouts (29) in that span.

Nola has posted a 9.96 ERA with nine HRs allowed in his past six starts.

Soto draws walks as well as anyone in the majors, but he’s also tearing the cover off the ball when hittable pitches come his way.

He ranks in either the 98th or 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, xSLG and average exit velocity.

MLB home run picks made at 9:12 a.m. ET on 09/08/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Yankees SGP predictions Sept. 7: Bet on Bichette and Scherzer in +360 ticket

The Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees play out a crucial rubber match on Sunday afternoon.

The pregame narrative: Toronto and New York split the first two games of their series. Now, the former will either leave four games up on the Bronx Bombers or just two. It’s a game oozing with pennant implications.

Check out my Blue Jays vs. Yankees predictions for Sept. 7, featuring Bo Bichette and Max Scherzer.

Blue Jays vs. Yankees predictions

Parlay: Bichette 1+ hits | Scherzer over 5.5 Ks | Blue Jays ML (+360)

Bichette 1+ hits (-385): This leg has the shortest odds, but it’s one that I’m very confident about.

Bichette, who leads MLB with 181 hits, has been a machine at the plate this season.

The shortstop is delivering at an impressive rate. Bichette has a knock in 18 of his last 20 games (33 total).

He’s been especially hot recently, producing nine hits in his last five contests.

Bichette hasn’t fared well against Yankees starter Max Fried (2-for-11), but I’m confident that Toronto’s top hitter will come through on Sunday.

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MLB SGP legs

Scherzer over 5.5 Ks (+102): Scherzer is coming off his worst start since joining the Blue Jays.

And I think that makes me like this wager more.

“Mad Max” is one of MLB’s top competitors, and this game carries significant weight with the playoffs approaching.

I’m confident he’s going to deal against the Yankees.

Scherzer only lasted four innings in his last appearance, but had gone six-plus in each of his six previous outings.

He hasn’t topped this total in six consecutive starts, but there’s reason to believe he’ll rack them up today.

The Yankees are as swing-happy as they come, averaging the fourth-most strikeouts per game (8.83). Scherzer had seven strikeouts against this squad on June 30.

Blue Jays ML (+143): Lastly, I’m picking Toronto to win.

This is a play against New York starter Fried, who hasn’t performed well against the Blue Jays.

Fried has allowed four runs in each of his last two starts against Toronto, losing both of those starts.

Toronto has been sharp recently with Scherzer on the mound. It’s won in each of his last four appearances.

Ultimately, the Yankees live and die by Aaron Judge, and the team’s top slugger is slumping. Judge is homerless in his last five games and doesn’t have an extra-base hit during that stretch.

I’m betting on Scherzer showing out and keeping the Blue Jays firmly on top of the AL East.

Picks as of 10:36 a.m. on 09/07/2025.

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